The prognosis is he will be as good as new next year.Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects
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The prognosis is he will be as good as new next year.Weitering mckay curnow jsos cunningham and willamson were drafted at the end of 2015. Apart from this draft the other drafts have been underwhelming. The rebuild started in 2016. We are 5 years into it.
if we don’t make finals next year then we will have failed imo. Still need a couple of elite mids and a gun small forward.
Yep, it's been a brutal stretch.
2012 we sat top of the ladder after 3 games with a relatively young team and things looked very rosy. Then we had a brutal stretch of injuries that exposed the team a bit - great top-end talent but weak depth. We moved onto Malthouse from 2013-15 and he so thoroughly destroyed the club it was always going to take a long time to recover.
The '66 game rebuild' was always a bit of a misnomer - it was about rebuilding the list, not a path to success. By and large it worked with 66 games, too.
In 2015, we finished last, and yet our best players were either finished (Judd) or aged 27-28 (Murphy, Kreuzer, Gibbs). We have Cripps and Docherty in their early 20s, and most of the good players we had in between had either already left (Betts, Garlett, Waite, Robinson), or were leaving (Henderson, Yarran, Bell). The problem wasn't that we sucked. It was that we sucked AND were going to get worse.
The '66 game rebuild' was a list management strategy - spend 4 drafts (3 years) building a core of players to build around; we did that by trading even more players out to get heavily into those drafts (Touhy, Gibbs), trying to find guys from teh same drafts or the one previous elsewhere (Marchbnak, Kennedy, Setterfield) who came available, etc. But that core is still only 20-22. They're entering their prime now-ish - next year is realistically the first where we can compete, imo.
Those players might not be the next GWS or Geelong or whatever, but there's clearly a core to add to, and it gives us a 7-8 year run to get it 'right'.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Time will tell.
Of course all Clubs say that about all players. Yes even my Club.
One can hope. If it was an ACL I’d be pretty flat.
Manuel Labour
Draftee
No Sam Petrevski Seton?? (Surely in the best 22 but may be pushed out by Newman, Docherty and Williamson - Then again it will be horses for courses.) So out of best 22 would be J. Silvagni, Dow, O'Brien, McGovern, Newnes, Casboult,
Youngsters - Stocker, Philp, Ramsey, Honey, O'Dwyer, Phillips, Cottrell
Others/Could be gone - Kennedy/Lang/Betts/MacRaedie/Polson/B. Silvagni/Owies/Goddard/Moore - Assuming lists will need to be cut down
Retirees - Simmo and Kruezer
- Apr 27, 2014
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yep, getting a Richmond bloke into the club who could actually pull the trigger on Bambi was a massive step forward for the Blues. SOS would still be there otherwise irrespective of performance, like Hirdy at EFC, near-untouchable by anyone with a long term association with the club.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Glory be. 11 years a member on here and this is your 1st post?
I think describing SOS as untouchable is just flagrantly wrong.
He was only at the club for 5 years before leaving. During that time, he was over-ruled by the coach on list management issues multiple times, had a veteran brought it to oversee drafting (because the club felt he was a strong list manager, but not so good with draft picks), and then ultimately moved on, basically of his own accord, because he didn't want to manage the conflict of interest with his own two (and possibly three) sons.
Hardly a Bambi/Hird scenario. He was a high-profile list manager because 12 months after joining the club the team fell into a massive hole and he oversaw one of the most comprehensive 'tear it down and built it up again' situations the league has seen. He also made some fairly high-profile trades and was therefore pretty prominent in trade week.
As you know we take our time at Carlton.
HBF
Flying Scotsman
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I've been saying for a while now on the Carlton board that Teague needs a game day mentor in the box whilst he's still learning the coaching caper.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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I love though seeing a guy makes his first post after 10+ years joining on. Its hilarious. TBH it was a good post, obviously a backup alias.
I remember seeing one last year from 2007.
Yeah probably an account he forgot he had. It took me two years to post but that was because i wasn't to sure of my computer skills, and as it turned out i was right to worry.
Fair enough, as I said, give us Jack Graham.
That's ok we don't need all our kids getting coaches votes, we need them to contribute at AFL level in wins when we don't depend on Cripps, Docherty, Murphy, Simpson and Kreuzer - this is exactly what we did this year.
The failure has been in the development of guys like SPS, Dow, O'Brien, Cuningham who have just not kicked on, but it looks like others have. It's not the perfect year but its a step forward.
Unless we get a midfielder I can't see us improving that much. The gap between Cripps and our next best is enormous. Walsh is a jet but is mostly on the wing and the opposition hasn't put much effort into him yet. Setterfield is slowly building but is defensive-minded.
There's a spot right there for Cuningham, SPS or Dow to take a midfield spot but they're not up to it, which is why we need to chase one and make them compete for a spot.
We need one of the untried guys to bring a bit of X-factor too - Kemp or Honey.
Torched Geelong on their home track for 3 quarters (almost fluffed it in the last) and smashed the dogs. Two very good scalps built on good ball use and forward efficiency.
Good showings against Port and WC too.
Have also had terrible losses against your mob and Adelaide.
I think we have a system that can work, it just requires more ruthlessness when we have momentum and more importantly the ability to lock down against an opposition when they get a run on.
As you pointed out, I too see plenty of upside in the list for 2021, even before potential mature additions like Crouch and Williams etc.
- Jul 14, 2005
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Carlton supporters mostly hated it, but it was the right move. SOS has largely dined out on his 2015 draft haul, which to be fair he smashed out of the park, but that can sometimes be the nature of taking a number of top prospects at once. We also got lucky with Geelong and Brisbane being happy to trade reasonably high picks for Henderson and Bell (we then converted one of these picks and another early second into the pick that ended up being Curnow).
He's got 3 reasonably good footballers in SPS, Fisher and Williamson in 2016, he then torched two 1st round picks in 2017, got an absolute gimme in Walsh the next year and then traded down pretty well to get Kemp (and Philp) in 2019.
Overall I think he broke even as a List Manager, but a big part of that was the huge headstart he had with his first draft and being gifted two Pick 1's, which are hard to blow. He has never really had to maintain a list over a long period of time, but from all available evidence he's a bit all over the place with contracts; McGovern's monster contract, Curnow's 800k contract and our 1 million dollar offer to Shiel come to mind. Plus having 2 sons on the list was always going to be difficult to manage going forward. Plus he recruited so many duds with our rookie picks that could have been used on project type players or guys from the State Leagues who deserved a crack. It wasn't until 2018 we actually went the other way and brought in Gibbons and Cottrell who are and projected to be best 22 players for the club.
At the absolute least Liddle is keeping the club accountable at each juncture. SOS' sacking was one obvious example - apparently he has questioned the club about keeping Betts on for next year as well. Keeping in mind it's not especially clear what the correct move is, that is exactly the kind of oversight the club has needed for a long period of time.
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- Jul 14, 2005
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Our mid-season form was awesome, with some of the best ball movement I had seen from any team against the Bulldogs. We've showed it in patches, but have kind of collapsed into a heap at the end of the year, partly trying to balance out our need to develop with remaining competitive.
From what has been suggested we are going to go hard at bringing in some midfielders at the end of the year, which is going to go a long way in making us competitive long-term. Currently we're a few quality mids short, which probably explains our horrible showings against Hawthorn, Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne.
At 3-3, after wins against the Dogs and Geelong, I thought we really had a good shot at a spot in the bottom half of the 8. Especially given Simpson and co would be pushing the younger guys to give them one last crack at a finals series.
I guess treading water in terms of ladder position is entirely possible if we project our age profile in the coming years (e.g. Freo and WB of recent years).
Think there are some wrong perceptions about the Dogs, sometimes from their own supporters. They fell back to average 2017-18 but have been well above in 2019-20. They're in good shape, just need to fill needs at the bookends to be contenders. And I've got Freo improving in each of the last four years, to almost average in 2020.
Charlie is in great nick as is Kemp
Blues have had a solid year. Improvement from last year
To make finals in 2021 we need
1. Move on from older players now
2. Add 2-3 quality mids
3. Change in coaching to support Teague
4. Our own Reserves which will help development dramatically
To make finals in 2021 we need
1. Move on from older players now
2. Add 2-3 quality mids
3. Change in coaching to support Teague
4. Our own Reserves which will help development dramatically
- May 1, 2016
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On the subject of overpaying for players...
Hmmm...
how so?
Blues setting up nicely for 2021.
Lions exposed again during the finals, not sure they go any further and may have peaked
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