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Preview 2020 AFL National Draft thread

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Passmore said:
Yeah. Most of that is independent opinion. Twomey had him at 10 yesterday. He'd be getting some decent mail fed to him.

Look, I've just had it mentioned to me that we like him. I don't know if we like him enough to be part of a package of picks for 2 though.
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I interpreted the pick 2 swap comments as we are open to it, only if you pay ridiculous overs. The decision to go public early is to garner additional interest.
 
Kangaroos4eva said:
I interpreted the pick 2 swap comments as we are open to it, only if you pay ridiculous overs. The decision to go public early is to garner additional interest.
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Yep. Put it out there, listen to offers and see what comes up. We're not obliged to trade it on the basis of mentioning the possibility.
 
 

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Rooboy 96 said:
I am confused, I thought we were supposed to act all coy and not at all interested to increase the value of Pick 2, have we learned nothing from the Brown debacle?
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Trade period = silence
High tradeable draft pick = topless pics
 
2019
Pick 2 - Anderson
Pick 6, 7, 8 - McAsey, Young, Serong

2018
Pick 2 - Lukosius
Pick 6, 7, 8 - King, Smith, Thomas

2017
Pick 2 - Brayshaw
Pick 6, 7, 8 - Stephenson, Clarke, Coffield

2016
Pick 2 - Taranto
Pick 6, 7, 8 - Petrevski-Setton, Scrimshaw, Logue


Looks like you'd do that trade every year bar 2016. Other difference with 2020 to these 4 drafts, is that there weren't 2 academy kids to be taken pre 6,7,8.
 

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King Corey said:
1Brendon GoddardGippsland PowerSt Kilda
12Daniel WellsPeel ThunderKangaroos
13Jared BrennanSouthern DistrictsBrisbane Lions
14Tim WalshNorthern KnightsWestern Bulldogs
15Jarrad McVeighNSW/ACT RamsSydney Swans
16Steven SalopekDandenong StingraysPort Adelaide
17Andrew MackieGlenelgGeelong
18Luke BrennanNorth Ballarat RebelsHawthorn
19Hamish McIntoshMurray BushrangersKangaroos
110Jason LaycockTassie MarinersEssendon

Nup.
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Bit hypothetical as no way we get offered all three of 6,7, and 8, but here is the history.

Last 10 Years of Number 2 picks:

Harley Bennell, Stephen Conglio, Jonathan O'Rourke, Josh Kelly, Christian PetraccaJosh Schache, Tim Tarranto, Andrew Brayshaw, Jack Lukosius, Noah Anderson

And 6, 7, & *:
Reece Conca, Josh Caddy, Dyson Heppell, Chad Wingard, Nick Haynes, Billy Longer, Jack McCrae, Ollie Wines, Sam Mayes, Matthew Scharrenberg, James Aish, Luke McDonald, Caleb Marchbank, [PLAYERCARD]Paul Ahern, Peter Wright, Aaron Francis, Jacob Hopper, Callum Ah Chee, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jack Scrimshaw, Griffin Logue, Jaidan Stephenson, Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield, Ben King, Bailey Smith, Tarryn Thomas, Fischer McAsey, Hayden Young, Caleb Sarong
 
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7577969923 said:
Bit hypothetical as no way we get offered all three of 6,7, and 8, but here is the history.

Last 10 Years of Number 2 picks:

Harley Bennell, Stephen Conglio, Jonathan O'Rourke, Josh Kelly, Josh Schache, Tim Tarranto, Andrew Brayshaw, Jack Lukosius, Noah Anderson

And 6, 7, & *:
Reece Conca, Josh Caddy, Dyson Heppell, Chad Wingard, Nick Haynes, Billy Longer, Jack McCrae, Ollie Wines, Sam Mayes, Matthew Scharrenberg, James Aish, Luke McDonald, Christian Petracca, Caleb Marchbank, Paul Ahern, Peter Wright, Aaron Francis, Jacob Hopper, Callum Ah Chee, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jack Scrimshaw, Griffin Logue, Jaidan Stephenson, Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield, Ben King, Bailey Smith, Tarryn Thomas, Fischer McAsey, Hayden Young, Caleb Sarong
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Christian Petracca was pick 3?
 
Snake_Baker said:
The year before.

View attachment 1012987
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It's an interesting exercise (though probably moot as I doubt * will give them up). I'd have thought 6, 7, 8 vs 2 would be a winner nearly all of the time but for the last few years it's pretty mixed.

2014 Petracca vs Marchbank, Ahern, Peter Wright. 2 wins
2015 Schache vs Aaron Francis, Hopper, Callum Ah Chee. 6 - 8 wins because Hopper was an academy pick. Nil all draw otherwise
2016 Taranto vs Petrevski - Seton, Jack Scrimshaw, Griffin Logue. 2 probably wins
2017 Andrew Brayshaw vs Stephenson, Hunter Clarke, Coffield. 6 - 8 wins
2018 Lukosius vs Ben King, Bailey Smith, Tarryn. 6 - 8 wins
2019 Anderson vs McAsey, Hayden Young, Serong. 6 - 8 wins
 
King Corey said:
Christian Petracca was pick 3?
Click to expand...

Wikipeda says 2. Had him in wrong list.
 
7577969923 said:
Bit hypothetical as no way we get offered all three of 6,7, and 8, but here is the history.

Last 10 Years of Number 2 picks:

Harley Bennell, Stephen Conglio, Jonathan O'Rourke, Josh Kelly, Josh Schache, Tim Tarranto, Andrew Brayshaw, Jack Lukosius, Noah Anderson

And 6, 7, & *:
Reece Conca, Josh Caddy, Dyson Heppell, Chad Wingard, Nick Haynes, Billy Longer, Jack McCrae, Ollie Wines, Sam Mayes, Matthew Scharrenberg, James Aish, Luke McDonald, Caleb Marchbank, Paul Ahern, Peter Wright, Aaron Francis, Jacob Hopper, Callum Ah Chee, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jack Scrimshaw, Griffin Logue, Jaidan Stephenson, Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield, Ben King, Bailey Smith, Tarryn Thomas, Fischer McAsey, Hayden Young, Caleb Sarong
Click to expand...

It's about neck & neck, but the advantage with 6, 7, 8 is that you spread the risk of a Schache occuring, whilst the odds favor still picking up a good player..
 

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Snake_Baker said:
It's about neck & neck, but the advantage with 6, 7, 8 is that you spread the risk of a Schache occuring, whilst the odds favor still picking up a good player..
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They wont be giving up 6,7,8. I think we can cease talking in fantasy land.

It's also not going to be 6,7,8.

It will likely be 8,9,11.
 
Snake_Baker said:
It's about neck & neck, but the advantage with 6, 7, 8 is that you spread the risk of a Schache occuring, whilst the odds favor still picking up a good player..
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Looks like pick 2 has a 70% strike rate over the last ten years while 6,7 & 8 collectively run at about 60%. There has been years when all three of 6,7 & * have been a wipe but if you picked up the equivalent of King, Bailey Smith and TT in one year that would be huge.

My guess would be two of the three picks is the best we will get.
 
TennisPlayerAndy said:
The academy players are not relevant though.
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They might not be relevant to US, but the fact remains the #1 player in this draft is JUH, it doesn't matter who he was available to.

Essendon won't be getting the 6th best player in this draft, they will get the 8th.

It is completely relevant when comparing the performance of the 2nd best player to the 8th, 9th and 11th best player in a pool over previous years (like you should be doing with the exercise)
 
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