Club Focus Western Bulldogs 2020 - Hannan, Martin, Treloar, Ugle-Hagan, Bedendo

[Lore]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order (updated weekly) see the thread here.

 

[flipper83]

A bid at pick 1 only results in an 81 point deficit - it doesn't effect our 2021 round 1 unless it falls in the teens, and even then it's only one spot.

We may even have a handshake agreement pre-draft that if we get a pick 1 bid we move up the order by trading a 2021 4th rounder and a 2020 second round pick up a few extra spots.

I don't think it works like that. If you don't have the full points value for the pick you get moved back, even if you have more points than the lower pick.
Still with reports that clubs are able to take in more picks than list spots this year it should be easy to split an early pick into two later ones to make up that deficit.

 

[Mofra]

I don't think it works like that. If you don't have the full points value for the pick you get moved back, even if you have more points than the lower pick.
Still with reports that clubs are able to take in more picks than list spots this year it should be easy to split an early pick into two later ones to make up that deficit.

Yes, but if the next 2021 pick is lower in value by (for example) 150 points, an 81 point deficit would not be enough to push the pick back.

With respect to splitting picks even further, you can only use picks if you have the available list spots - we currently have 5 picks that attract points, therefore we have to have 5 list spots free to use all five picks to match a JUH bid. The AFL closed that loophole after GWS used it to match an academy bid a couple of years ago.

If we split picks, that means we have to have further list spots free and I'm not sure we're going to cull the list that hard. We can, for example, trade a 2020 pick 33 + a 2021 4th round pick into a 2020 pick 28 to increase our points tally if JUH is bid on in round 1 if we want to increase points but still only have 5 list spots available.

 

[flipper83]

Who cares, that's peanuts compared to making a statement to the VFL. If we bid on JUH, we still get the same player at pick 2.

We were Wooden Spooners, we should have been able to select the best player in the draft JUH. The fact the VFL created the rort that is NGA's due to the squealing of Maguire etc means we don't get the player we were entitled to.

Pay up Dogs, you got Treloar for basically free, JUH will cost, we have lots of form bidding on players where they should be bid at - JUH is pick 1

It really makes very little difference in what the dogs end up paying. I'd think we'd probably be happy if he ended up being the number 1 pick.

But I like the idea of making a stand and showing how Adelaide was robbed. Surely the AFL will step in and hand him over and probably give Adelaide a few more picks for the trouble

 

[flipper83]

Yes, but if the next 2021 pick is lower in value by (for example) 150 points, an 81 point deficit would not be enough to push the pick back.

With respect to splitting picks even further, you can only use picks if you have the available list spots - we currently have 5 picks that attract points, therefore we have to have 5 list spots free to use all five picks to match a JUH bid. The AFL closed that loophole after GWS used it to match an academy bid a couple of years ago.

If we split picks, that means we have to have further list spots free and I'm not sure we're going to cull the list that hard. We can, for example, trade a 2020 pick 33 + a 2021 4th round pick into a 2020 pick 28 to increase our points tally if JUH is bid on in round 1 if we want to increase points but still only have 5 list spots available.

I know that's how it's worked in the past but I think there was a tweet saying it would be different this year due to the list reductions.
Nothing official yet because the AFL is completely useless but fingers crossed it's how they proceed.

As for the deficit I think it's the same situation that Fremantle is in this year and again I'm not 100% sure but I think the belief was even if you are one point short of the full value of a pick you get pushed back.

 

[Tbonefreo]

I think he underestimates the marketing value of Pick 1 to the Crows as a club.

Take all the build up, the fanfare of having the pick of the draft, the spotlight on the night and lead up.....and then relegate yourselves to getting the second best player in the draft after watching another club take center stage and place a jumper on a kid that as always going to be matched. Madness.

I think that mentality would apply to certain clubs, but I believe Adelaide isn't one of them. They are very well established. Not having pick one as a marketing tool(like Carlton used to) wouldn't bother them in the slightest. If he is number one on their board they will bid

 

[Prochard123]

If Adelaide bids at pick 1, Bulldogs would have to give up all of their picks this year and STILL go into a deficit.

Surely Bulldogs has a contingency plan of trading our a future 2nd/3rd for a pick this year if Adelaide does bid early.

 

[Prochard123]

FWIW, if I was a list manager, there is absolutely no way I'd bid pick 1 on Ugle-Hagan. Not because it isn't worth it, but I mean why damage relationship with another club for virtually no upside? It's not like there's a possibility that WBD wouldn't match.

This "hold other clubs accountable" idea is just stupid.

The ONLY time I'd match a bid in ANY part of the draft is if:
(1) The academy/FS player is clearly better than other options available at that pick
(2) There is a realistic chance the home club won't match

 

[Thetrader15]

FWIW, if I was a list manager, there is absolutely no way I'd bid pick 1 on Ugle-Hagan. Not because it isn't worth it, but I mean why damage relationship with another club for virtually no upside? It's not like there's a possibility that WBD wouldn't match.

This "hold other clubs accountable" idea is just stupid.

The ONLY time I'd match a bid in ANY part of the draft is if:
(1) The academy/FS player is clearly better than other options available at that pick
(2) There is a realistic chance the home club won't match

Criteria 1 is the case this year, JUH is the clear #1.

Crows are known to bid, and I suspect this helped us with the 4 -> 6, 2020/1 trade last year with GWS.

The benefit it does is maximise any points deficit. Last year Carlton bid on Henry, and Freo went into deficit by matching. Fast forward 12m and Carlton jump ahead of Freo's draft pick due to Freo's deficit. Carlton had a direct benefit just by holding Freo to the market price.

 

[Thetrader15]

If Adelaide bids at pick 1, Bulldogs would have to give up all of their picks this year and STILL go into a deficit.

Surely Bulldogs has a contingency plan of trading our a future 2nd/3rd for a pick this year if Adelaide does bid early.

Dogs already have traded out their future 2nd and 3rd. They have their 1st and 4th only left. They can't trade their future 1st now either unless they get a 2nd and 3rd back in either.

 

[Prochard123]

Criteria 1 is the case this year, JUH is the clear #1.

Crows are known to bid, and I suspect this helped us with the 4 -> 6, 2020/1 trade last year with GWS.

The benefit it does is maximise any points deficit. Last year Carlton bid on Henry, and Freo went into deficit by matching. Fast forward 12m and Carlton jump ahead of Freo's draft pick due to Freo's deficit. Carlton had a direct benefit just by holding Freo to the market price.

Yes I think Criteria 1 is the case this year, but my point is both conditions need to be met. And given the trade moves WBD made, 0% chance they won't match, hence criteria 2 not satisfied.

 

[Prochard123]

Dogs already have traded out their future 2nd and 3rd. They have their 1st and 4th only left. They can't trade their future 1st now either unless they get a 2nd and 3rd back in either.

Right, so can they trade their future 1st for a worse future 1st (Richmond/Geelong's for example) or for a package of future 2nd + future 3rd and bring in another pick this year?

Because if you bid pick 1, they're seriously in trouble.

 

[Thetrader15]

Yes I think Criteria 1 is the case this year, but my point is both conditions need to be met. And given the trade moves WBD made, 0% chance they won't match, hence criteria 2 not satisfied.

If there's 0.0001% chance of getting the best player and no cost to doing it, why not go for it.

Do you want a free lotto ticket?

 

[Thetrader15]

Right, so can they trade their future 1st for a worse future 1st (Richmond/Geelong's for example) or for a package of future 2nd + future 3rd and bring in another pick this year?

Because if you bid pick 1, they're seriously in trouble.

Correct.

They will only go about 85 points into deficit, it's not that much of a big deal. They may slide from pick 14 to 16.

 

[Prochard123]

Correct.

They will only go about 85 points into deficit, it's not that much of a big deal. They may slide from pick 14 to 16.

True, but don't forget all the FAs next year.

The difference between let's say pick 10 vs pick 13 could be huge, if multiple FAs result in band 1 compensations, pushing pick 13 much further than how much pick 10 is pushed back.

 

[HairyO]

Any club that doesnt use their pick on the best available player at that point doesnt deserve to be in the draft.

If he is number 1, bid on him at 1. Dogs then match. Crows then get the next best player.

Roos the same. If the Swans NGA is the next best, Roos should bid.

Etc.

 

[Thetrader15]

True, but don't forget all the FAs next year.

The difference between let's say pick 10 vs pick 13 could be huge, if multiple FAs result in band 1 compensations, pushing pick 13 much further than how much pick 10 is pushed back.

The points get taken off before the FA compo comes in. Say it's from 10 (ie. Dogs miss finals, which I don't think is happening) to 13, 2 or 3 FAs come in and it's 13-16, which is less of a difference.

Either way, it's a small price to pay to get JUH.

 

[Thetrader15]

FWIW, if I was a list manager, there is absolutely no way I'd bid pick 1 on Ugle-Hagan. Not because it isn't worth it, but I mean why damage relationship with another club for virtually no upside? It's not like there's a possibility that WBD wouldn't match.

This "hold other clubs accountable" idea is just stupid.

The ONLY time I'd match a bid in ANY part of the draft is if:
(1) The academy/FS player is clearly better than other options available at that pick
(2) There is a realistic chance the home club won't match

BTW, you didn't address my Freo / Carlton example here where Carlton neither of the 2 above were true, but Carlton gained a direct draft pick benefit.

 

[Prochard123]

The points get taken off before the FA compo comes in. Say it's from 10 (ie. Dogs miss finals, which I don't think is happening) to 13, 2 or 3 FAs come in and it's 13-16, which is less of a difference.

Either way, it's a small price to pay to get JUH.

Yes, my point is, if due to deficit, you go from 10 to 13.

A club with pick 11 and another club with pick 12 receives round 1 compo. These compos affect pick 13, and they wouldn't have affected WBD's undiluted pick 10, had they not gone ahead with a deficit.

 

[Prochard123]

If there's 0.0001% chance of getting the best player and no cost to doing it, why not go for it.

Do you want a free lotto ticket?

Yes honestly if it's only between pick 14 and 16, that's quite negligible.

And no, I wouldn't want a free lotto ticket if there is a much larger cost in club relationship, hence the lotto ticket not being "free" after all.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Criteria 1 is the case this year, JUH is the clear #1.

Crows are known to bid, and I suspect this helped us with the 4 -> 6, 2020/1 trade last year with GWS.

The benefit it does is maximise any points deficit. Last year Carlton bid on Henry, and Freo went into deficit by matching. Fast forward 12m and Carlton jump ahead of Freo's draft pick due to Freo's deficit. Carlton had a direct benefit just by holding Freo to the market price.

He’s really not the clear number 1.

 

[Hoges64]

Yes, my point is, if due to deficit, you go from 10 to 13.

A club with pick 11 and another club with pick 12 receives round 1 compo. These compos affect pick 13, and they wouldn't have affected WBD's undiluted pick 10, had they not gone ahead with a deficit.

I highly doubt sliding up 5-7 spots (not that it'll happen) in next year's draft would be of ANY concern to the dogs if it secures JUH.

At worst they lose 3-5 spots, from say 12-14 range.

Big frikkin' whoop. Anything outside a top 10 pick is overrated, and you can make the same argument for anything 7+.

A club that hasn't had a true generational key forward in my lifetime and you think they're concerned about dropping back 3 picks??? Please.

As for the calls he's the undisputed pick 1, that's seriously getting bigger bullshit by the day, like that fish I caught when I was a little tacker, that was thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis big. There's plenty of reasons why Hollands, McDonald and Thilthorpe can be pick 1.

 

[Prochard123]

I highly doubt sliding up 5-7 spots (not that it'll happen) in next year's draft would be of ANY concern to the dogs if it secures JUH.

At worst they lose 3-5 spots, from say 12-14 range.

Big frikkin' whoop. Anything outside a top 10 pick is overrated, and you can make the same argument for anything 7+.

A club that hasn't had a true generational key forward in my lifetime and you think they're concerned about dropping back 3 picks??? Please.

As for the calls he's the undisputed pick 1, that's seriously getting bigger bullshit by the day, like that fish I caught when I was a little tacker, that was thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis big. There's plenty of reasons why Hollands, McDonald and Thilthorpe can be pick 1.

Ok just relax lol

 

[Hoges64]

Ok just relax lol

What in my post points to me being anything but relaxed?

Getting to the point you can't even make a logical, reasoned, factual post on here without being accused of being triggered.

 

[Thetrader15]

He’s really not the clear number 1.

I'm yet to see anyone say he's not the beat player. Seen a few of the vic media say crows shouldn't bid because of the marketing potential but no one I've seen have said he's not the best.

 

[Thetrader15]

Yes honestly if it's only between pick 14 and 16, that's quite negligible.

And no, I wouldn't want a free lotto ticket if there is a much larger cost in club relationship, hence the lotto ticket not being "free" after all.

You think the dogs really sook because a team bids on the best player?