Academy 2020 Father/Son, NGA and Academy Prospects - The Compromised Draft

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Munga lets lay out a little history. Seriously if you want to talk about blinkers, read the whole post, otherwise you’ll never understand one side of the discussion.

The AFL and VFL has never been a fair or equitable competition. There were always strong vfl clubs with strong financial backing that dominated the weaker, poorer teams.

The AFL was established to ensure the survival of the VFL teams. It was never about developing a national competition.

Even then, some VFL teams died. Talk to a lot of old Fitzroy or South Melbourne members, the current Lions and Swans aren’t their teams, because they’re not in Melbourne anymore.

There’s very few aspects of the AFL that are fair and equitable, especially to fans of the northern clubs.

Our players don’t have the same third party opportunities that exist in Victoria. There are no cushy media jobs up here for current or retired players.

I grew up in Brisbane in the 80’s and early 90’s as a kid and teenager.

AFL was a minor sport played by southern NTTAWWTters (excuse my language please).

Rugby league was the dominant football code, with Rugby union played in the private schools. Soccer was the third football code, mainly played by wogs (again, excuse my language). This was QLD in the 80’s.

GAYFL was largely played by kids from expat Victorian and South Australian families, and that’s still largely true today.

Today, AFL is growing, but it’s still viewed as an interloper football code by the majority, and that is how it’s still portrayed in the media up here.

You have to understand that Fairfax media own the Brisbane Broncos, the largest Rugby League team up here, and the media can be heavily biased against AFL still.

So can QLD politicians when it suits them. Defending QLD sports against Victorian invaders.

There’s very little to be gained for politicians up here to spruik AFL or be seen to be supporting funding for AFL, because the opposition will jump on and claim they’re sending money south to Victoria, at the expense of working class rugby league clubs.

There’s no NAB League up here, funded by the AFL. So no elite junior pathways exist. Kids come up playing through QAFL, QFA div 1 and QFA div 2, etc, clubs.

The QAFL is on par with your strong Melbourne amateur leagues. These aren’t development teams. It’s the strongest competition up here, and they’re playing to win a championship, so only the best kids play as U18’s. Much like the SANFL or WAFL.

I would love for the AFL to fund a NAB League like competition up here. But they won’t.

Since the arrival of Gold Coast Suns, they have done a lot of work in growing the junior game in their zones. They have developed strong State and Private school competitions.

Brisbane Lions considerably less so, unfortunately.

It was only two years ago, that AFL was introduced to private schools in Brisbane. And it’s still the third rated football code at them, with Union and soccer being much more popular and funded.

There’s no full or partial scholarships to private schools for talented AFL kids up here. Only for Rugby Union and international sports such as basketball, cricket, athletics and swimming.

You need to understand, AFL is part of the fabric of Victorian society. There are so many advantages throughout Victorian society that you don’t even think of, that exist for the AFL at so many levels, that just don’t exist up here.

There’s little, local sponsorship dollars as the Northern clubs don’t get the media exposure or national free to air coverage.

As I mentioned before, there’s no third party type deals available, as they go to Rugby League and Union players and clubs.

There’s precious few post footy career jobs for the boys type deals. We don’t have sponsors or rich supporters providing post footy careers.

Nor are there many footy jobs up here for ex players. There’s no VFL type money. There’s no NAB League jobs up here. There’s almost no footy industry type jobs.

Luke Hodge is the first big name player to stay after retiring, and I’m waiting to see if his career opportunities survive post covid.
 
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Hi all,

I'm trying to work out how the draft is going to go on draft night, just as a general exercise. But a lot of picks are going to change based on academy selections as clubs use multiple picks and additional selections get added.

So i'm hoping that fans from each club can tell me what academy/NGA/FS picks you have, and where you expect them to go in the draft. A general idea is fine. I can then use the draft order to try and work out what will happen from there. I did this for the Swans picks just using JUH going to the dogs, but i know it's going to be much more complicated with all clubs added.

I expect JUH going to WB at pick 2/3
I expect Braeden Campbell going to the Swans at pick 8 (I think Essendon will pick one player, then nominate him).
I expect Errol Gulden will go to the Swans at about pick 20.

Please post below your club's players or even other clubs with your best guess. I don't want to get into arguments about exactly where players will go, even a general range is ok, and i'll use a mid value.
 
Hi all,

I'm trying to work out how the draft is going to go on draft night, just as a general exercise. But a lot of picks are going to change based on academy selections as clubs use multiple picks and additional selections get added.

So i'm hoping that fans from each club can tell me what academy/NGA/FS picks you have, and where you expect them to go in the draft. A general idea is fine. I can then use the draft order to try and work out what will happen from there. I did this for the Swans picks just using JUH going to the dogs, but i know it's going to be much more complicated with all clubs added.

I expect JUH going to WB at pick 2/3
I expect Braeden Campbell going to the Swans at pick 8 (I think Essendon will pick one player, then nominate him).
I expect Errol Gulden will go to the Swans at about pick 20.

Please post below your club's players or even other clubs with your best guess. I don't want to get into arguments about exactly where players will go, even a general range is ok, and i'll use a mid value.
Crows have 2 NGAs (Borlase, Newchurch) and 1 potential FS (Edwards). All will likely bid after our pick 40 which should slide in to about 33 or so.
 

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It's garbage for the most part.

Yes it's sentimental, but we are the only sport in the world that essentially caves into that sentimentality, every other sport holds equality on a higher pedestal, as it should

It wouldn't be lost either, it would just prevent more inequalities in the top end of the draft pool.
Agree. If it is to be kept, the team can only use 1 pick's on it fornthat year and go into deficit the following year. None of the BS this year where a player in the 1st rd can go for 4 or 4th round picks.
 
Hi all,

I'm trying to work out how the draft is going to go on draft night, just as a general exercise. But a lot of picks are going to change based on academy selections as clubs use multiple picks and additional selections get added.

So i'm hoping that fans from each club can tell me what academy/NGA/FS picks you have, and where you expect them to go in the draft. A general idea is fine. I can then use the draft order to try and work out what will happen from there. I did this for the Swans picks just using JUH going to the dogs, but i know it's going to be much more complicated with all clubs added.

I expect JUH going to WB at pick 2/3
I expect Braeden Campbell going to the Swans at pick 8 (I think Essendon will pick one player, then nominate him).
I expect Errol Gulden will go to the Swans at about pick 20.

Please post below your club's players or even other clubs with your best guess. I don't want to get into arguments about exactly where players will go, even a general range is ok, and i'll use a mid value.
Essendon

Cody Brand
Josh Eyre

Both sort of middling, not first round or anything.

I moved this post into the relevant thread btw, you should find the other clubs already listed here. If you're willing to create a master list I can sticky your post to the top of the thread 😊
 
Hi all,

I'm trying to work out how the draft is going to go on draft night, just as a general exercise. But a lot of picks are going to change based on academy selections as clubs use multiple picks and additional selections get added.

So i'm hoping that fans from each club can tell me what academy/NGA/FS picks you have, and where you expect them to go in the draft. A general idea is fine. I can then use the draft order to try and work out what will happen from there. I did this for the Swans picks just using JUH going to the dogs, but i know it's going to be much more complicated with all clubs added.

I expect JUH going to WB at pick 2/3
I expect Braeden Campbell going to the Swans at pick 8 (I think Essendon will pick one player, then nominate him).
I expect Errol Gulden will go to the Swans at about pick 20.

Please post below your club's players or even other clubs with your best guess. I don't want to get into arguments about exactly where players will go, even a general range is ok, and i'll use a mid value.

Tigers

Rioli Jr I think his most likely to go third round+ but who knows 🤷‍♂️
 
Hi all,

I'm trying to work out how the draft is going to go on draft night, just as a general exercise. But a lot of picks are going to change based on academy selections as clubs use multiple picks and additional selections get added.

So i'm hoping that fans from each club can tell me what academy/NGA/FS picks you have, and where you expect them to go in the draft. A general idea is fine. I can then use the draft order to try and work out what will happen from there. I did this for the Swans picks just using JUH going to the dogs, but i know it's going to be much more complicated with all clubs added.

I expect JUH going to WB at pick 2/3
I expect Braeden Campbell going to the Swans at pick 8 (I think Essendon will pick one player, then nominate him).
I expect Errol Gulden will go to the Swans at about pick 20.

Please post below your club's players or even other clubs with your best guess. I don't want to get into arguments about exactly where players will go, even a general range is ok, and i'll use a mid value.
Probably wait until the AFL announce the final draft order to know what picks clubs are taking to the draft.

Though it appears most clubs will take all their picks worth points to the draft this year.

As for the Lions, from what we’re speculating is that we’ll match a bid on Coleman after our first pick at 25.
 
Not sure if it may have been asked, but where do those who really watch the kids rate James Borlace in the Draft and for the purpose of the exercise assume he is not a crows NGA. Just interested to see where others think he sits talent wise
 
Essendon

Cody Brand
Josh Eyre

Both sort of middling, not first round or anything.

I moved this post into the relevant thread btw, you should find the other clubs already listed here. If you're willing to create a master list I can sticky your post to the top of the thread 😊
No worries, that's fine.

So middling would be a guess at mid/late second round? Put them at 31, 32?
 

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Second or third round to late depending on who you ask. Brand is supposed to go earlier than Eyre
OK, thanks. Will put then in at in 33 and 39 for now.

This is just for my own interest, seeing how the picks move as new picks are added and others taken out. Generally the front of the draft is moving back, but the late picks get more valuable as other picks get taken out. It makes trading a mid pick (e.g. 30ish) worth trading for late picks if you have academy kids, as you get a double effect. First you generally make a few points off the trade, but then as the picks happen, those later picks get better.

As an example, if the bids come in at JUH (2), Braeden Campbell (8), Errol Gulden (21), Reef McInnes (23), then something like West Coast's pick 62 worth 128 points has become pick 58 worth 170 points.

Just as an aside, in that bid scenario, Sydeny carry a 140 pt debt into 2021 and Collingwood carry a 443 pt debt. I'd expect both clubs to try and get more points. Sydeny can by trading their picks in the 30's and 40,s, but Collingwood can't improve unless they trade future picks or sacrifice one of their early picks. 443 is a lot of debt, and makes me wonder if they will match an early bid at all.
 
Probably wait until the AFL announce the final draft order to know what picks clubs are taking to the draft.

Though it appears most clubs will take all their picks worth points to the draft this year.

As for the Lions, from what we’re speculating is that we’ll match a bid on Coleman after our first pick at 25.
Don't know Brisbane match or not, with Richmond love of small and last year bided on Brisbane players , could consider bidding Coleman with their first round pick again around pick 21-24.
 
GWS only has Josh Green this year. Expect him to go un-bid, and taken as a Cat B rookie. If he's bid on, I predict that we won't match.
It wouldnt surprise me if Richmond bid on Josh

We have been in his brothers ear since he was 15 and he is a crazy mad Tigers supporter and can easily see a long term play here
 
The NGA’s get peeled back.

Meanwhile can we please have the worlds smallest violin for Kinnear Beatson?

Proposing if a Northern Academy side passes on a prospect, their next pick should move up to the very next pick after the bid as compensation 😂😂 because it’s currently unfair the only option they have is to match if a team puts a bid half a round ahead of them and they have to use later picks and don’t get to double dip 😂😂

Sorry, where exactly have these dummy bids come from? Green last year that went about 6 picks after where most rated him?

How much does this man want handed to him? Heeney, Mills now Campbell? Anything else Kinnear? How about free reign for the Northern sides on the entire first round?

 
Proposing if a Northern Academy side passes on a prospect, their next pick should move up to the very next pick after the bid as compensation 😂😂
Is that what he was saying? I read it like 6 times and I couldn't quite believe that that was what he meant. The mind boggles.

So if he chooses not to match the bid, he should essentially be able to trade places with whoever bid on his academy player? So that both the bidding and the matching clubs have the choice of Mills or Oliver/Parish/Francis/Milera/Weideman/McKay/etc?

I think that would effectively undermine the stated objectives of the entire northern academy system tbh.

Firstly, that would remove the incentive to match a bid on a northern talent you've spent time developing. You might've spent time developing a NSW midfielder but prefer a WA KPF that happens to be available at that pick, so you pass and take the WA KPF instead. Meaning that the stay home objective of the northern academies – reducing the "go home" factor by encouraging northern clubs to draft northern talent – is undermined.

Secondly, with the clubs no longer being incentivised to keep northern talent in the north, kids in Sydney may be more likely to chose NRL rather than joining Sydney's academy and risking being drafted to Perth or Adelaide. Which means the 'expanding the talent pool' objective is also undermined as a consequence.

Beyond that, they're already getting a 20% discount on market value, so when Mills is bid on at pick 3, they paid the equivalent of pick 6. If they thought Mills was worth pick 4 or pick 5 and was bid on early as a 'dummy bid' then they're still paying 1-2 picks lower value in matching him than what they thought he was worth in the first place :drunk:

They can also already ask for extensions of time to live trade to pick 4 if they want that pick, in lieu of matching the bid. If they choose to rort the system by trading into the second and third rounds and then no one wants to trade pick 4 for those picks, that's the natural consequence of the decision they've made to try and rort the system. Perhaps if they'd kept pick 14 and bundled it with their future first, they'd have a better chance of doing that trade.

Also, someone please tell me why a top 4 club should have rights to pick in the top 4 of the draft, without trading out a player, and without matching a bid on a northern academy player that they've already invested in and who wouldn't be there if not for the promise of not having to move interstate?

World's smallest violin is about right.

:drunk::drunk::drunk:
 
It is utterly shameless and transparently reveals Sydney's central interest in the academy program - guaranteed access to top-end prospects.

If passing is such a poor alternative to matching an early bid, all that suggests is the cost to match is too low.

Pathetic effort from Twomey and Edwards to let that bullshit slide.
 
Is that what he was saying? I read it like 6 times and I couldn't quite believe that that was what he meant. The mind boggles.

So if he chooses not to match the bid, he should essentially be able to trade places with whoever bid on his academy player? So that both the bidding and the matching clubs have the choice of Mills or Oliver/Parish/Francis/Milera/Weideman/McKay/etc?

I think that would effectively undermine the stated objectives of the entire northern academy system tbh.

Firstly, that would remove the incentive to match a bid on a northern talent you've spent time developing. You might've spent time developing a NSW midfielder but prefer a WA KPF that happens to be available at that pick, so you pass and take the WA KPF instead. Meaning that the stay home objective of the northern academies – reducing the "go home" factor by encouraging northern clubs to draft northern talent – is undermined.

Secondly, with the clubs no longer being incentivised to keep northern talent in the north, kids in Sydney may be more likely to chose NRL rather than joining Sydney's academy and risking being drafted to Perth or Adelaide. Which means the 'expanding the talent pool' objective is also undermined as a consequence.

Beyond that, they're already getting a 20% discount on market value, so when Mills is bid on at pick 3, they paid the equivalent of pick 6. If they thought Mills was worth pick 4 or pick 5 and was bid on early as a 'dummy bid' then they're still paying 1-2 picks lower value in matching him than what they thought he was worth in the first place :drunk:

They can also already ask for extensions of time to live trade to pick 4 if they want that pick, in lieu of matching the bid. If they choose to rort the system by trading into the second and third rounds and then no one wants to trade pick 4 for those picks, that's the natural consequence of the decision they've made to try and rort the system. Perhaps if they'd kept pick 14 and bundled it with their future first, they'd have a better chance of doing that trade.

Also, someone please tell me why a top 4 club should have rights to pick in the top 4 of the draft, without trading out a player, and without matching a bid on a northern academy player that they've already invested in and who wouldn't be there if not for the promise of not having to move interstate?

World's smallest violin is about right.

:drunk::drunk::drunk:
I am assuming from this that Beatson also wants this to apply to only Northern Academies?

I am also assuming that if they choose not to match that bid, that they would receive the next pick available, without losing any of the picks?

So if we bid on Braeden Campbell with pick 1, Kinnear Beatson is saying that they(Swans), should be able to pass on him at pick 1 but receive pick 2 without losing any of there draft points?

I actually like the Northern Academies and understand the role they play in getting kids from non aussie rules parts of the country, but this idea is nothing short of a disgrace.

PS As a good a player as Campbell promises to be, I don't think we will pick him with pick 1.
 
Kinnear Beatson rough translation:

"We want to be able to match bids only if they don't cost us much draft collateral. If they cost us too much, we want to be able to pass on that bid and then move into the next spot in the draft order. We also want to do this without giving up any draft collateral to get there"

So basically, (hypothetically) if someone bid on Gulden at 13, they pass on him and then move up from their second round pick to pick 14...for nothing.

Yeah that wouldn't cause clubs to just trade out all their picks into the following year's draft and then pass on an academy player so they could essentially keep their picks and get a high draft pick as well, would it?

Great idea, you self-serving d*ckhead :rolleyes:🤪
 
It is utterly shameless and transparently reveals Sydney's central interest in the academy program - guaranteed access to top-end prospects.

If passing is such a poor alternative to matching an early bid, all that suggests is the cost to match is too low.

Pathetic effort from Twomey and Edwards to let that bullshit slide.
You think those 2 would call anything out 🤣
 
It is utterly shameless and transparently reveals Sydney's central interest in the academy program - guaranteed access to top-end prospects.

If passing is such a poor alternative to matching an early bid, all that suggests is the cost to match is too low.

Pathetic effort from Twomey and Edwards to let that bullshit slide.

Agreed, very low integrity journalism.
 
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