Say "Hawk Minnow" once more and someone might laugh this time.Impressive for a Hawk Minnow
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Say "Hawk Minnow" once more and someone might laugh this time.Impressive for a Hawk Minnow
What is interesting is that the two clubs who were brave enough to state their lofty ambitions - Hawks and Richmond, actually achieved them. Most other clubs are too afraid to even plan to win multiple premierships in private let alone announce it to the footy world. 20 by 2050 highly unlikely given where we are now we would need two or three more dominant eras), but at least we have a crack.
What is interesting is that the two clubs who were brave enough to state their lofty ambitions - Hawks and Richmond, actually achieved them. Most other clubs are too afraid to even plan to win multiple premierships in private let alone announce it to the footy world. 20 by 2050 highly unlikely given where we are now we would need two or three more dominant eras), but at least we have a crack.
He said "brave enough to state their lofty ambitions"How do you know what clubs have or haven't planned privately?
He said "brave enough to state their lofty ambitions"
Not private...public
Bwahahaha...thanks for the laugh pea-brainCan you read?
"Most other clubs are too afraid to even plan to win multiple premierships in private let alone announce it to the footy world"
Saints had a plan to win a flag by 2020. But everyone laughed at it.
No current season stats available
No current season stats available
Lots went wrong for St Kilda in 2018 and 2019.
Our number 1 pick McCartin had his career ended by concussions. Koby Stevens& Billy LongerPLAYERCARDSTARTKoby Stevens
- Age
- 32
- Ht
- 189cm
- Wt
- 87kg
- Pos.
- Mid
CareerSeasonLast 5
- D
- 18.4
- 5star
- K
- 7.7
- 3star
- HB
- 10.7
- 5star
- M
- 3.6
- 4star
- T
- 4.0
- 5star
- CL
- 2.3
- 4star
No current season stats available
- D
- 12.6
- 4star
- K
- 6.6
- 3star
- HB
- 6.0
- 4star
- M
- 3.8
- 4star
- T
- 4.2
- 5star
- CL
- 1.6
- 4star
PLAYERCARDENDsuffered the same fate.PLAYERCARDSTARTBilly Longer
- Age
- 30
- Ht
- 202cm
- Wt
- 105kg
- Pos.
- Ruck
CareerSeasonLast 5
- D
- 8.3
- 2star
- K
- 2.7
- 1star
- HB
- 5.6
- 4star
- CL
- 2.2
- 4star
- HO
- 29.1
- 5star
No current season stats available
- D
- 7.4
- 2star
- K
- 4.2
- 2star
- HB
- 3.2
- 3star
- CL
- 1.6
- 4star
- HO
- 22.6
- 5star
PLAYERCARDEND
Roberton was All Australian squad in 2017, but hasn't been the same since due to heart issues.
Now, imagine McCartin had become All Australian key forward, and the 2020 Saints had that version of McCartin plus the 2017 Roberton. They would've come close to winning the flag I reckon.
Another what if- What if the Saints had drafted Petracca and Bontempelli instead of McCartin and Billings?
Again, probably would've come very close to the 2020 flag.
St Kilda was only soundly beaten in 3 games in 2020 out of 19- the other 16 were all wins or very close losses. We lost a semi final to Richmond by 31, despite kicking 6.13, missing a goal due to an incorrect goal review, and missing Ryder (3rd in our B&F on votes per game, and BOG in Week 1 finals). We were missing Ryder, Carlisle and Gresham- 2 of our top 10 players and 3 of our top 12 or 14. Richmond were at full strength, and kept nailing arsey goals that bounced through. 31 point loss to the eventual premier but could've been much closer. (And that was the 3rd comfortable loss of the season).
Saints win those 4 or 5 single digit losses, (plus the game they were 8 points up with 8 minutes left vs West Coast and lost by 15) all of a sudden they're minor premier with a double chance.
Things that must go right to win a flag:
- Nail your draft picks
- Have a good run with injuries
- The right coaching staff
- Building a culture and convincing Players to buy in and play for less than they're worth
(this is where Collingwood failed, after contending from 2018 to 2020 their window is now over, for now, after overpaying Treloar, Stephenson, Phillips and the associated fall out)
And of course, a bit of luck. It's not always easy to tell which players will eventually develop into quality AFL players. Coaching plays a role, but there's always that luck- some players have "it", others don't and it's not always apparent to anyone, it just surprises everyone when it happens.
Hawthorn
Hawthorn won 4 flags in 10 years but consider how they got there. In 2005 drafted Buddy, Roughhead and Lewis- 3 stars all peaked together, winning 2 flags and then another 2 without Buddy.
Now Roughhead was a priority pick #2. These days, that would be pick 20 or so.
Roughhead kicked 6 in the 2014 prelim and Hawthorn won by 3 points.
They also picked up Hodge as a #1 priority pick in 2002. If that was 2020, that's pick 19. Hodge won multiple Norm Smiths.
Without Hodge and Roughhead- and with two lesser players instead- Hawthorn probably wouldn't have won 1 flag, let alone 4.
Hawthorn's previous flags in the 80's and 1991 were won while they were cheating the salary cap (John Hook and Don Scott have both admitted this)- another strategy that doesn't work in the modern AFL!
Geelong
The AFL's equalisation system makes it very difficult these days for any team to have sustained success.
Geelong has done it, but with 14 or 15 of their best 22 being 28 or over, they have one more year, maybe two of contending and then the dam will finally burst and they'll have a few years of mediocrity. The free agent system won't allow them to replace Selwood, Hawkins, Dangerfield, etc etc. Not with other teams circling the few Free Agents every year.
They have done a tremendous job with mature age recruits (Blicavs, Podsiadly, Stewart, Kelly) but they won't unearth enough players to keep them contending beyond 2021/22. Their list is just too old. They've gone all in with Cameron, Higgins and Smith, hoping to win a flag and knowing they'll be down for a while afterwards- like Sydney tried with Buddy and now they're having a down period.
As great as Geelong have been for the past 17 years or so, ultimately they've only won 3 flags. In fact they've only won 3 since 1963!
Geelong also got Ablett, Scarlett and Hawkins under the old father/ son system. Nowadays they'd need to bid and use a higher pick, instead of merely use a 3rd round pick to draft those players. Like Hawthorn, they benefited from rules that have changed significantly since.
The Future
There aren't any recent examples of clubs winning multiple flags and then multiple more within the next 15-20 years.
This is why I dont see any club winning 20 flags by 2050- and Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood are the only 3 who I give any real chance, as they'd need 4, 4 and 5 within 30 years.
The AFL is designed as an equal opportunity system, and there's 18 clubs.
Correct but Hawthorn had all their players back for finals. Just like Richmond 20192014 Hawks had an insane run of injuries including losing the coach for 5 weeks.
Having strong systems is as important as anything else.
2014 Hawks had an insane run of injuries including losing the coach for 5 weeks.
Having strong systems is as important as anything else.
Correct but Hawthorn had all their players back for finals. Just like Richmond 2019
Yeah system I'd put under the coaching bracket. They're responsible for developing a system and teaching it to the players.
Picking coaches is a bit like drafting players. Some coaches have a certain something, but it's not always apparent in the beginning. And it's not obvious how well their ideas will translate into head coaching reality as football constantly changes, or how well they'll be able to hold a culture together over a long period of ups and downs.
Correct but Hawthorn had all their players back for finals. Just like Richmond 2019
Yeah system I'd put under the coaching bracket. They're responsible for developing a system and teaching it to the players.
Picking coaches is a bit like drafting players. Some coaches have a certain something, but it's not always apparent in the beginning. And it's not obvious how well their ideas will translate into head coaching reality as football constantly changes, or how well they'll be able to hold a culture together over a long period of ups and downs.
We got Cyril back for the Grand Final. Suckling was injured in the finals.
When Clarko was injured we had 6 starting players injured too. Won all 5 games.
You new to Bigfooty?What's with all the insecurity from the Hawthorn supporters?
What's with all the insecurity from the Hawthorn supporters?
Collingwood supporters just can't cope that they will live to see both Richmond and Hawthorn surpass them in the premiership tallyWho is insecure?
And why is noone at Collingwood feeling insecure ?
Collingwood supporters just can't cope that they will live to see both Richmond and Hawthorn surpass them in the premiership tally