Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

[Deaneus!]

KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​

 

[Brett Cummings]

Don't like either scenario tbh.

Most pundits have O'Driscoll around 20-25. I wouldn't be taking him at 9. If we are taking him there as we are worried about McDonald leaving this could be a sign we shouldn't take McDonald.

Thilthorpe just isn't a number 1 pick player. I know we can't change what position our picks lie and the SA factor is making him more attractive but i think we can do better from our first two picks with a different combination.

I would speak to Sydney and see if they are interested in McDonald. If they are I would do a pick swap of 1 for 3 and Swans 2021/2nd which should be around pick 22. I would then take Phillips with pick 3 as long as he is a stayer. If not I would take Hollands if North didn't take him at 2.
Then I would go after GC pick 5 with a possible trade of 9 and our 2021/2nd which should be around pick 20 for pick 5. Who are GC really after at 5? Is it Phillips? I think it is. If that player is off the table they may trade 5 for 9 and give themselves a top 20 pick next year. By us taking Phillips earlier it makes them trading pick 5 more attractive to them. At pick 5 I would take Cox who is a much better mark than McDonald and Thilthorpe and has better skills and can play anywhere on the ground.
We end up with Phillips at pick 3. Will be a gun and there is some serious undervaluing going on this board with Phillips. He helps our midfield immediately. If he isn't a stayer we take Hollands. Will a great player as well but a bit more of a forward imo.
We end up with Cox at pick 5 and we have given up nothing for the pick upgrade other than a couple of picks in the 2021 2nd round(pick 20 to pick 22.

Phillips is easily a better mid than O'Driscoll and Bruhn.
Cox imo is just as good a forward as McDonald and Thilthorpe. He also doesn't have an injury concerns which Thilthorpe may have. My only concern with Cox is will be stay long term? He may if he buys in and feels valued.

if thilthorpe isnt pick 1 material then we should pick mcdonald. we need a forward badly as much as I want hollands.

himmelberg will not make it which only leaves fogarty.

 

[LoBu]

Don't like either scenario tbh.

Most pundits have O'Driscoll around 20-25. I wouldn't be taking him at 9. If we are taking him there as we are worried about McDonald leaving this could be a sign we shouldn't take McDonald.

Thilthorpe just isn't a number 1 pick player. I know we can't change what position our picks lie and the SA factor is making him more attractive but i think we can do better from our first two picks with a different combination.

I would speak to Sydney and see if they are interested in McDonald. If they are I would do a pick swap of 1 for 3 and Swans 2021/2nd which should be around pick 22. I would then take Phillips with pick 3 as long as he is a stayer. If not I would take Hollands if North didn't take him at 2.
Then I would go after GC pick 5 with a possible trade of 9 and our 2021/2nd which should be around pick 20 for pick 5. Who are GC really after at 5? Is it Phillips? I think it is. If that player is off the table they may trade 5 for 9 and give themselves a top 20 pick next year. By us taking Phillips earlier it makes them trading pick 5 more attractive to them. At pick 5 I would take Cox who is a much better mark than McDonald and Thilthorpe and has better skills and can play anywhere on the ground.
We end up with Phillips at pick 3. Will be a gun and there is some serious undervaluing going on this board with Phillips. He helps our midfield immediately. If he isn't a stayer we take Hollands. Will a great player as well but a bit more of a forward imo.
We end up with Cox at pick 5 and we have given up nothing for the pick upgrade other than a couple of picks in the 2021 2nd round(pick 20 to pick 22.

Phillips is easily a better mid than O'Driscoll and Bruhn.
Cox imo is just as good a forward as McDonald and Thilthorpe. He also doesn't have an injury concerns which Thilthorpe may have. My only concern with Cox is will be stay long term? He may if he buys in and feels valued.

Yep, Phillips is a gun, but it would be a total left field if we picked him, I can't see it.

If Hollands hadn't done his knee... Well who knows? I like him and think he is just what we need, but number 1 with an ACL?

O'Driscoll is mixed in his standings as you point out, but that hasn't stopped Adelaide from getting their man in the past, regardless of the pick.

I could see us trading down to Collingwood's pick to get O'Driscoll, but would be surprised if he lasted until pick 21.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Golumless]

if thilthorpe isnt pick 1 material then we should pick mcdonald. we need a forward badly as much as I want hollands.

himmelberg will not make it which only leaves fogarty.

I would be very shocked if Himmelberg did not make it. Very. Shocked.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I would be very shocked if Himmelberg did not make it. Very. Shocked.

Not a question to be asked about Himmelberg

 

[mickfaxis]

So what pick does everyone think we’ll take Bryan Beinke

Bryan Beinke

Age

48

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

1.6

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.7

3star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.4

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

1.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.4

3star

G

1.0

4star

with?


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Best mark in the history of the game since football was invented. Pick 1.

 

[hey shorty]

I would be very shocked if Himmelberg did not make it. Very. Shocked.

Even if he didn't improve on his late season form, a career of that level will suit us just fine.

 

[conVINCEd]

I’m going to say we draft McDonald and O’Driscoll.

Seems like so many better options than O’Driscoll at 9.

 

[GrommoT]

Have you the OP poster on "ignore" .....that'll explain it

 

[hey shorty]

Seems like so many better options than O’Driscoll at 9.

Agreed, if he's there at 22 I'd be very keen though.

 

[Murray2503]

I would be very shocked if Himmelberg did not make it. Very. Shocked.

Berg will make it. Just needs to improve his kicking for goal. When he kicks through it he is fine. His miss is always to the right. This can be fixed by not laying back on it and fading it. He also needs to learn to kick for goal on the run in general play. Currently he is awful at it. One other thing I noticed watching the Essendon game is that he has a tendency to sometimes do too much with ball close to goal in a pack. Jerka was an expert at it and it generally results in a htb. Berg and McAdam both have a tendency to do it and need to give it off when surrounded by multiple opposition players sweating off.

 

[robboaustralia]

Scenario 1:
McDonald
O'Driscoll

Scenario 2:
Thilthorpe
Bruhn

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Lock in B Eddie

 

[hey shorty]

Berg will make it. Just needs to improve his kicking for goal. When he kicks through it he is fine. His miss is always to the right. This can be fixed by not laying back on it and fading it. He also needs to learn to kick for goal on the run in general play. Currently he is awful at it. One other thing I noticed watching the Essendon game is that he has a tendency to sometimes do to much with ball close to goal in a pack. Jerka was an expert at it and it generally results in a htb. Berg and McAdam both have a tendency to do it and need to give it off when surrounded by multiple opposition players sweating off.

Berg does have the nasty habit of trying to make the easy snaps look extremely difficult, easy enough to fix.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Berg does have the nasty habit of trying to make the easy snaps look extremely difficult, easy enough to fix.

First real season ....tough season for all, Himmelberg will only get better

 

[Brett Cummings]

I would be very shocked if Himmelberg did not make it. Very. Shocked.

prepare to be shocked. the guy cant kick for goal.

 

[Atypical7]

Seems like so many better options than O’Driscoll at 9.

O'Driscoll will fill a huge gap in our list so I'd say he could get picked by us earlier than projected.

 

[Scorpus]

I would be very shocked if Himmelberg did not make it. Very. Shocked.

The jury is still out in my opinion but he's looking more likely to make it than 12 months ago

 

[Big Dub]

I'm not saying it isn't rare ... Just didn't feel like it would transfer to AFL.

Who was the last player to do it of his ilk?

Just my view on it, all the vision I see doesn't give me that feeling that he will have the same impact in the top tier.

I have not seen any of them live, so my thoughts are very thin skinned. I'm not going to throw down like some on here on how awesome I am at identifying talent via YouTube!!!

There may have been others, but the last WA kid that I recall making the open state team (this year team of the year only) in their U18 year was Glen Jacovich.

Seemed to work out OK.

 

[Golumless]

Not a question to be asked about Himmelberg

Not from me at this point in time. The tools are there to be a really good player. Fast becoming a reliable contested mark (noting H'berg top 20'd in contested Mark's per game) and a Nick Riewoldt like tank is a very good platform for a key forward in this era.

Now he just needs to live up to those tools and he's starting too.

Berg will make it. Just needs to improve his kicking for goal. When he kicks through it he is fine. His miss is always to the right. This can be fixed by not laying back on it and fading it. He also needs to learn to kick for goal on the run in general play. Currently he is awful at it. One other thing I noticed watching the Essendon game is that he has a tendency to sometimes do too much with ball close to goal in a pack. Jerka was an expert at it and it generally results in a htb. Berg and McAdam both have a tendency to do it and need to give it off when surrounded by multiple opposition players sweating off.

If kicking for goal is Bergs major problem, he'll end up an AA level player by the end of it. Its been around AFL average throughout his career.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Bergs issues, especially on the run, has just been a case of not being properly adjusted to the pace of AFL. There are certainly a fair few moments he has more time then he realises.

Complicating things is a different story, though I certainly don't mind players willing to run the gauntlet of holding the ball.

Even if he didn't improve on his late season form, a career of that level will suit us just fine.

Pretty much. If you can get a 30 goal a season forward who can ruck and offer a reliable contested marking outlet, you'd gladly bank that.

Himmelberg still needs to improve his production to get there, however it should be expected at this point he'll get to that standard in 2021.

 

[Golumless]

prepare to be shocked. the guy cant kick for goal.

He is damn well close to the middle of the bell curve (if not on it) when it comes to goal kicking accuracy.

Himmelberg career shot accuracy (both set shot and general play): 46%
AFL average is somewhere between 46-48%.

All from the stats insiders shot charting.

 

[Thetrader15]

Have you the OP poster on "ignore" .....that'll explain it

Seems like a few of us have done that.

 

[Thetrader15]

Scenario 1:
McDonald
O'Driscoll

Scenario 2:
Thilthorpe
Bruhn

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Scenario 3:
Hollands
Bruhn

Scenario 4:
Hollands
Thilthorpe

You gotta have FAITH with option 4 though.

 

[Big Dub]

Seems like so many better options than O’Driscoll at 9.

I'd say we trade down from 9 if we want to pick O'Driscoll. Plenty of teams will be willing to give good value to get up the order (Collingwood's 1st this year and next for 9 and 23 my preference).

 

[conVINCEd]

Keep saying this, Jack Carroll is the one. Have to consider him at 9.

Any Carroll highlights available?

 

[Mutineer]

Have you the OP poster on "ignore" .....that'll explain it

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

if thilthorpe isnt pick 1 material then we should pick mcdonald. we need a forward badly as much as I want hollands.

himmelberg will not make it which only leaves fogarty.

Just because you repeat something over & over again doesn't mean it will some true...