Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

[Deaneus!]

KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​

 

[mattymac]

You don't think a season of Sholl, Schoenberg, Hamill and hopefully improvements from Milera and Jones won't provide decent forward entries ??

You're going to be one very sad little matty on draft night.

Not sad, just disappointed at a lost opportunity.

And probably just accepting of the fact we are out of our depth in the modern game.

We seem to be becoming the more westerly version of North Melbourne in recent times.

 

[Brett Cummings]

Not sad, just disappointed at a lost opportunity.

And probably just accepting of the fact we are out of our depth in the modern game.

We seem to be becoming the more westerly version of North Melbourne in recent times.

adelaide disappointing their fans isnt anything new. they completely ****ed up the b crouch situation. should of traded him last year when he had currecny but they stayed stubborn. instead we got f!@k all for him the next year.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

LC40 did

Very solid frame on him, this happens to young kids that work super hard to impress and get somewhere.

With a good AFL program he will lose 8kg and get stronger very fast meaning he will be 2 years above most kids hence why I think he so it be a bargain selection.

bargain at 35 + .... not at our picks

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I would be very shocked if Himmelberg did not make it. Very. Shocked.

He’s more of a chance to make it than Fog

 

[Brett Cummings]

He’s more of a chance to make it than Fog

 

[mattymac]

At least North Melbourne seem to have cottoned onto the fact the traditional lead up forward is fools gold in the modern game.

 

[Golumless]

He’s more of a chance to make it than Fog

At the moment, though as it stands, Fogs issues have been really overblown.

Fogs 2020 was very similar to Himmelberg 2019 in a lot of way, though with more of a sample size. Marking for the most part deserted them (2020 Fog and 2019 Himmelberg were both prone to cement hands), very good defensive production for the position (Fog had 2.2 tackles a game this season! H'Berg 3.1 last year, ******* ridiculous for a key forward), offensive production stalled out. Both ended up going into the off-season after with question marks about fitness. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect Fog to progress similarly to Himmelberg next year.

The big issue for Fog though is what do we do with him? I'm rapidly cooling on the idea of Fog as a key forward, seeing I don't think it suits his style of game play that well, whereas a third tall would probably be better. I'm becoming more hopeful of Fog pinch hitting in the midfield, seeing a third tall/mid rotation could certainly be a nice arrow to have in your quiver.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

At the moment, though as it stands, Fogs issues have been really overblown.

Fogs 2020 was very similar to Himmelberg 2019 in a lot of way, though with more of a sample size. Marking for the most part deserted them (2020 Fog and 2019 Himmelberg were both prone to cement hands), very good defensive production for the position (Fog had 2.2 tackles a game this season! H'Berg 3.1 last year, ******* ridiculous for a key forward), offensive production stalled out. Both ended up going into the off-season after with question marks about fitness. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect Fog to progress similarly to Himmelberg next year.

The big issue for Fog though is what do we do with him? I'm rapidly cooling on the idea of Fog as a key forward, seeing I don't think it suits his style of game play that well, whereas a third tall would probably be better. I'm becoming more hopeful of Fog pinch hitting in the midfield, seeing a third tall/mid rotation could certainly be a nice arrow to have in your quiver.

Sound theory other than the fact that you need to be able to run in all of those roles you mention

and at this moment that’s the thing Fog has most problem with

so unless he gets to that Level of running he can have the potential to play those roles but be spat out of the system fast

 

[Stiffy_18]

At the moment, though as it stands, Fogs issues have been really overblown.

Fogs 2020 was very similar to Himmelberg 2019 in a lot of way, though with more of a sample size. Marking for the most part deserted them (2020 Fog and 2019 Himmelberg were both prone to cement hands), very good defensive production for the position (Fog had 2.2 tackles a game this season! H'Berg 3.1 last year, ******* ridiculous for a key forward), offensive production stalled out. Both ended up going into the off-season after with question marks about fitness. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect Fog to progress similarly to Himmelberg next year.

The big issue for Fog though is what do we do with him? I'm rapidly cooling on the idea of Fog as a key forward, seeing I don't think it suits his style of game play that well, whereas a third tall would probably be better. I'm becoming more hopeful of Fog pinch hitting in the midfield, seeing a third tall/mid rotation could certainly be a nice arrow to have in your quiver.

Fog's biggest issue is his tank! It was an issue with him in his draft year and it still is. He needs to build a genuine tank and once he does that, he will start ripping games apart. If he can get really fit, he could be an absolute brute of a midfielder. He is excellent in traffic, has a fend off and he is a great kick.

It's almost like he has to be paired with a brutal trainer who will ride him hard for a number of preseasons. A bit like how Bernie trained with Goodwin one preseason and he took his game to another level because his fitness level allowed him to do much much more than what he did to that point.

His only issue is his fitness. Get that to a desired level and the rest of his game will come to the surface.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Dog's biggest issue is his tank! It was an issue with him in his draft year and it still is. He needs to build a genuine tank and once he does that, he will start ripping games apart. If he can get really fit, he could be an absolute brute of a midfielder. He is excellent in traffic, has a fend off and he is a great kick.

His only issue is his fitness. Get that to a desired level and the rest of his game will come to the surface.

Same story for the last 5 years and I agree with you ... the tools are there to be able to do it

eventually if you don’t do it you get spat out of the system

he hasn’t had a good season at any level since he was 16 yo so I think if he doesn’t show signs in 2021 he’s done

 

[Golumless]

Sound theory other than the fact that you need to be able to run in all of those roles you mention

and at this moment that’s the thing Fog has most problem with

so unless he gets to that Level of running he can have the potential to play those roles but be spat out of the system fast

Yeah, no. That issue is very overblown.

You do not rack up defensive numbers as a key forward if you have genuine issues with your tank, and Fog was at an elite level production defensively (for a key forward) in 2020. 2.2 tackles a game in a position where 1 per game is par, and 1.3 1% (which is roughly on par).

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Yeah, no. That issue is very overblown.

You do not rack up defensive numbers as a key forward if you have genuine issues with your tank.

Tackles per game - like 2-3 aren’t defensive numbers

defensive numbers are pressure acts and closing off space just as much as tackle numbers
me and you could stand there at a stoppage and tackle twice per game . Doesn’t make us good defensively

prime example would be 33 yo Scott Thompson - laying 5 tackles . Doesn’t mean he was good defensively without the ball

 

[Golumless]

Tackles per game - like 2-3 aren’t defensive numbers

defensive numbers are pressure acts and closing off space just as much as tackle numbers
me and you could stand there at a stoppage and tackle twice per game . Doesn’t make us good defensively

prime example would be 33 yo Scott Thompson - laying 5 tackles . Doesn’t mean he was good defensively without the ball

If you are racking up tackles, you are also racking up pressure acts and closing off space. Tackles are a number game and an indictor of defensive effort. You need to run hard multiple times at players defensively to create the opportunities to lay tackles, especially once you are away from the coalface (and for the most part, Fog is not in congestion). It's also something you do not assume its an outlier until its shown to be an outlier, especially as these numbers exist in a year where frankly we were hopeless at getting the ball forward, and equally hopeless at locking the ball in our forward line for extended periods.

Context is the most important thing when looking at any number in this game, and the biggest thing with context is role. To use your Scott Thompson example, he was playing inside midfield when he laid them, and the big thing with being at the coal face is you have a lot of congestion. Being in congestion is the best way to rack up any defensive number as bodies being everywhere lowers the amount of paths a ball can safely travel and nullifies speed as a weakness. Someone playing an inside midfielder role who has 3 tackles a game average (and equiv. pressure and closing down numbers) can rightly be accused for being one way and lazy defensively, seeing the average is around 5 a game. Whereas, 3 tackles for an outside midfielder (and nothing that screams outlier in pressure acts and closing down space) is starting to approach elite territory, seeing most tend to hover in that 2-3 bracket.

For a key forward, the moment you are anywhere in the high 2s (in a proper 120 minute game) for tackles, you're in elite territory defensively (and really, for anyone without a midfield/ruck rotation, that number probably lowers even more). It's not a position you're expected to do anything major defensively due to being in a sector where there is always safe options for ball movement, and an area that is loaded up with a side elite ball movers. Nor is this a position you commonly see players who are lightning quick (which is the easiest path to impacting on that side of the ball), seeing easiest way to counter ball movement is being lightning quick.

Fogs tank is fine for a key forward. It's not fine for a midfielder and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what we're pushing him to be.

 

[Golumless]

Fog's biggest issue is his tank! It was an issue with him in his draft year and it still is. He needs to build a genuine tank and once he does that, he will start ripping games apart. If he can get really fit, he could be an absolute brute of a midfielder. He is excellent in traffic, has a fend off and he is a great kick.

It's almost like he has to be paired with a brutal trainer who will ride him hard for a number of preseasons. A bit like how Bernie trained with Goodwin one preseason and he took his game to another level because his fitness level allowed him to do much much more than what he did to that point.

His only issue is his fitness. Get that to a desired level and the rest of his game will come to the surface.

It's an issue, though not his biggest. His biggest is just being in no mans land role wise at the moment, being a key forward and lacking some athleticism and size against genuine key backs. His second biggest issue at the moment is he plays for Adelaide, a side whose ball movement is horrendous, which is exposing issue one.

The tank he has is certainly fine for a key forward, you don't hit in the 2s for tackles if you aren't capable of sustaining a games worth of repeat efforts. Especially once you're on the slower side. It's not fine for a midfielder or someone expected to eat up kilometers as a roamer. It's probably one of the bigger signs we see Fog as a midfielder in the mid-term if we're pushing heavily for a better tank.

 

[Draft Bored]

... His second biggest issue at the moment is he plays for Adelaide...

LOL. Spot on. Stick him in Richmond/Brisbane/Geelong's forward line and see how he goes.

 

[Sanders]

if thilthorpe isnt pick 1 material then we should pick mcdonald. we need a forward badly as much as I want hollands.

himmelberg will not make it which only leaves fogarty.

you said RoB wouldn’t make either

 

[Brett Cummings]

you said RoB wouldn’t make either

No I didnt. Quote me saying it and I'll believe you.

 

[FR0GGY]

Has someone emailed the club to let them know we’ve decided on Hollands?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Fog's biggest issue is his tank! It was an issue with him in his draft year and it still is. He needs to build a genuine tank and once he does that, he will start ripping games apart. If he can get really fit, he could be an absolute brute of a midfielder. He is excellent in traffic, has a fend off and he is a great kick.

It's almost like he has to be paired with a brutal trainer who will ride him hard for a number of preseasons. A bit like how Bernie trained with Goodwin one preseason and he took his game to another level because his fitness level allowed him to do much much more than what he did to that point.

His only issue is his fitness. Get that to a desired level and the rest of his game will come to the surface.

Welcome back mate ....always love your opinions

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Same story for the last 5 years and I agree with you ... the tools are there to be able to do it

eventually if you don’t do it you get spat out of the system

he hasn’t had a good season at any level since he was 16 yo so I think if he doesn’t show signs in 2021 he’s done

How hard is it to assign Fog a personal trainer in the off-season .....if the club hasn't addressed Fogs fitness, they will be partly responsible.

Also is Fog suffering from having Walker in the side? ......and will his production improve after Tex retires

 

[Chase13]

Has someone emailed the club to let them know we’ve decided on Hollands?

I tried to twitter Hamish couldn’t maybe benuik be easier, every club board wants Hollands and we can get him, and he wants us but we will go conservative and take RT. Not saying RT won’t be special, just not match winner. Hollands will turn games on its head with damaging possession. If we don’t go Hollands better get brunn, poulter, and especially ford.

 

[FR0GGY]

Gee we are an unlucky club, even when we finally get pick 1 there’s not just 1 standout candidate like Gold Coast last year.
Having pick 1 sucks

 

[CrowinNT]

who said he was? it wouldnt surprise me too much if we picked him at 1. I hadnt even heard of chayce jones

1

Chayce Jones

Age

24

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.6

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.9

4star

MG

178.6

3star

D

8.9

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

1.6

3star

MG

143.3

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

175.0

3star

when we picked him.

Most avid draft watchers had Jones in the mix.

 

[hey shorty]

Not sad, just disappointed at a lost opportunity.

And probably just accepting of the fact we are out of our depth in the modern game.

We seem to be becoming the more westerly version of North Melbourne in recent times.

That's your opinion, I mean a 6ft6 running machine who's a ground level freak is a terrible selection

 

[hey shorty]

At least North Melbourne seem to have cottoned onto the fact the traditional lead up forward is fools gold in the modern game.

Not really, they just didn't want to overpay for a 28yo.

They finally cottoned onto the fact they were rubbish.

Of the 3, I'd be most "disappointed" with McDonald for the reason you suggest. I think he's going to be a very good player but I'm not sure he's the right choice for us. He's the safe option.

The other 2 have genuine X factor