Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[bjgplaya]

Still waiting on.sportsbet to payout on electoral votes

Yeah specific markets are still not settled, which makes sense. All others where the result is clear has been paid out.

 

[99 Problems]

So few things there - yes all other Corps have paid out. Apart from top sport I think.
betfair have communicated a solid date now- sweet we’re all aware of that.
Biden was the best outcome pre election, but going by several of their social media posts - the balance of cash swung heavily to him once it was clear he would be victorious
Yeah I understand they can’t pay individual, the issue I have is there hasn’t been any updated information, that’s all I was trying to get from up the chain. As you said there would be hundreds of inquiries a day, so why not just put out an updated statement?? Seems fair and would save a lot of time on their end.
re the 3 day rule post outcome - in sports rules the stated rule is the outcome is the “generally acknowledged outcome”. Which really could be projected winner called by media; as has been for every election these last two decades, however safe guard would be certified electoral votes. Which as I mentioned I would be fine with had TAB simply stated that from late October.
They could avoid all this with some simple updated comms. Not hard really.

Yeah definitely not going to argue the communication has been horrible from the majority of books. I’m assuming when betting opened they intended on paying out around the time the media declared a winner as usual, but with Trump declaring his hand a long way out he wouldn’t accept the result if he lost they’ve been scrambling for legal advice and they’ve been unwilling to commit to anything.

Even though I’m sure they’re legally in the clear, it’s been terrible customer service and enough time has passed for them to be able to clearly state exactly what date/event will trigger them resulting the winner.

TAB will definitely be happy with a Biden win. Outsiders in these big recreational markets are a disaster for them because of retail. They spent large chunks of time above betfair on Biden just to try and balance their books up.

 

[bjgplaya]

Yeah definitely not going to argue the communication has been horrible from the majority of books. I’m assuming when betting opened they intended on paying out around the time the media declared a winner as usual, but with Trump declaring his hand a long way out he wouldn’t accept the result if he lost they’ve been scrambling for legal advice and they’ve been unwilling to commit to anything.

Even though I’m sure they’re legally in the clear, it’s been terrible customer service and enough time has passed for them to be able to clearly state exactly what date/event will trigger them resulting the winner.

TAB will definitely be happy with a Biden win. Outsiders in these big recreational markets are a disaster for them because of retail. They spent large chunks of time above betfair on Biden just to try and balance their books up.

Lol I know - was like that for all UK & Aus bookies - definitely a particular customer who bets on Trump, that aligns with corps target market.

Tbh probably would have taken slightly reduced odds if the payout was going to be what 5 weeks earlier (geez thats a long time hey).

 

[99 Problems]

All 3 other betting exchanges have paid out: BETDAQ, Smarkets and Matchbook. Only thing they haven't paid out is a few of the states that have gone to the courts and electoral CV's.

Surprises me a little. Did they make any sort of statement with the settlement? No way they can get that money back now if some ridiculous events took place and they had to honour Trump bets. Possibly just playing the odds that it’s an almost certainty and they can promote the early payout over betfair.

Im definitely not going to blame betfair for being more cautious with over $2 billion matched now.

 

[99 Problems]

Lol I know - was like that for all UK & Aus bookies - definitely a particular customer who bets on Trump, that aligns with corps target market.

Tbh probably would have taken slightly reduced odds if the payout was going to be what 5 weeks earlier (geez thats a long time hey).

For a market that should’ve grown the recreational customer base the extended wait for a payout and lack of communication will definitely have put plenty off.

 

[NYRB]

This is proof of Smarkets Betting Exchange settlement:

 

[NYRB]

BETDAQ have settled my Donald Trump winner bets as a loss as well


THey did this about 3 weeks ago from memory.

 

[Minh Le]

BETDAQ have settled my Donald Trump winner bets as a loss as well


THey did this about 3 weeks ago from memory.

View attachment 1021364

you get claim back once Trump win be patient! they are scam betting there is no official result yet! and all betting listen to fake news and media!

 

[NYRB]

I keep saying it here, but Australia badly needs a 2nd betting exchange. Feel a bit for you guys, who have funds locked in with 1 exchange.

 

[Jugada]

I keep saying it here, but Australia badly needs a 2nd betting exchange. Feel a bit for you guys, who have funds locked in with 1 exchange.

Australia doesn't need one, we don't have enough liquidity to fund local events as is a d it wouldn't really solve any problems anyway. What we need is China and Japan to let their people use the exchange or just be able to use overseas ones like before.

 

[NYRB]

Australia doesn't need one, we don't have enough liquidity to fund local events as is a d it wouldn't really solve any problems anyway. What we need is China and Japan to let their people use the exchange or just be able to use overseas ones like before.

Australia doesn't need one?

Not sure if you bet on their markets but it's by far the number 1 product in terms of betting. Cricket you have events being bet by the millions, same too for soccer, this recent US election was a good 2 billion dollars over. These are just a few events mind you.

Australian Football or AFL, will never take off on a global betting scale- it has the potential to do so on an exchange but the rules of the game are too complex for a global audience to understand, the most you will see bet on an AFL match is around 1.5 million AUD.


What I think we need is the US market to join, do agree that having a China/Japan being allowed to bet would make a difference but we may be a generation or two from allowing that to happen.

 

[NYRB]

In terms of local sports product on a global scale the pecking order is (on the betting exchange):

1. Big Bash
2. NRL
3. A-League
4. AFL
5. NBL


There is a clear gap on the betting exchange between 1 and 2. There is a clear gap between 4 and 5.

I have the A-League on the exchange as a bigger betting product mainly because of our unique time zone especially with the UK and Europe, hence making the betting attractive for the early morning punters over there.

But on a global scale, the only product that really makes headwaves on a global scale is the Big Bash cricket.

The most highly liquid sports on the exchange (on a global scale) in order in my opinion are:

1. Cricket (IPL, BBL, CPL, Vitality Blast, Lanka Premier League)
2. Soccer (EPL, and other big 4 Euro Leagues)
3. Tennis (Grand Slams and major tournaments)
4. Golf (Majors and events featuring a strong field)
5. Basketball (NBA & possibly Basketball world Cups)
6. American Football

 

[Jugada]

Australia doesn't need one?

Not sure if you bet on their markets but it's by far the number 1 product in terms of betting. Cricket you have events being bet by the millions, same too for soccer, this recent US election was a good 2 billion dollars over. These are just a few events mind you.

Australian Football or AFL, will never take off on a global betting scale- it has the potential to do so on an exchange but the rules of the game are too complex for a global audience to understand, the most you will see bet on an AFL match is around 1.5 million AUD.


What I think we need is the US market to join, do agree that having a China/Japan being allowed to bet would make a difference but we may be a generation or two from allowing that to happen.

Because cricket and soccer are the biggest sports in the world and we already get to get into them markets through Betfair. Its not our money in the pools it's the Euros and Asian countries. What would opening another local product help with that?

US market would help with US sport liquidity. We need the Chinese in there on a similar time zone for racing and to a lesser extent AFL. I know it won't happen but that's what we need, not another local competitor having to charge the same high commissions and getting pennies matched

 

[iluvparis]

When I studied Finance the motto ' a dollar today, is worth more than a dollar in a years time"

All these days its basically a dollar today is worth the same in a years time given interest rates and inflation (inb4 bitcoin)

 

[iluvparis]

Because cricket and soccer are the biggest sports in the world and we already get to get into them markets through Betfair. Its not our money in the pools it's the Euros and Asian countries. What would opening another local product help with that?

US market would help with US sport liquidity. We need the Chinese in there on a similar time zone for racing and to a lesser extent AFL. I know it won't happen but that's what we need, not another local competitor having to charge the same high commissions and getting pennies matched

Yeah not sure how a local betting exchange is suddenly going to boost already dire liquidity you see on AFL/NRL - it will just make it worse.

 

[NYRB]

I Agree that a local betting exchange wouldn't work.

But having the option of a 2nd betting exchange- a global one, can make a difference. I believe the Australian punter will get that option sooner rather than later. At the end of the day , why should the Australian consumer be limited or restricted to certain bookmakers? The clear winners here are the local Australian bookies and its a good incentive by the government to keep the Aussie money in Australia.The reality is , the bookmakers of Australia offer an inferior product, not so great odds and they are simply doing it 'to keep the Aussie businesses' happy is a stupid incentive. (A bit like the Interactive Gambling Act- which prohibits live betting).

I just like having a bit more variety in markets, not being charged a higher commission rate- and you just want to be wary of a monopoly totally dominating the market. I had a friend before that was charged for the Betfair Premium charge, which took away 20% of his profits at one stage. Very rarely does Betfair offer any incentive or promos- not that it needs to do it. The other exchanges, still behind in liquidity and marketing, have to do these incentives to attract new punters and keep their brand up there. In a way settling the recent, US election earlier is better for them- to keep their customers happy and to a slight extent from a marketing perspective similar to how Sportsbet did with their early payout of Biden. I'm sure also if there is a small chance had Trump overturned the decisions in the courts, the exchanges or overseas bookies would pay that out as well.

Racing NSW had their own 2.4% Turnover charge which was implemented into Betfair- which I prefer not to go into. (I am not a horse punter by any means)

Its like having a Coles v Woolworths, it would add a bit of competition in the local scene and give the consumer a bit of choice. I leave this as a situation for you guys

Assuming Model A v Model B exchanges

Model A: 5% commission on a $100,000 potential Profit, where if you won you would get back $95,000. Assuming you were a long term winner, you may be forced to pay extra charges, premium charge, etc

Model B: 2% Commission on a $100,000 potential profit, where if you won you would get back $98,000. That's yours to keep- no need to worry about the future.



which would you take?

Whether an exchange is liquid or low in liquidity is not the point I am trying to make, its more the options available and an astute punter can still profit from a market with not as deep of liquidity.

 

[Jugada]

I Agree that a local betting exchange wouldn't work.

But having the option of a 2nd betting exchange- a global one, can make a difference. I believe the Australian punter will get that option sooner rather than later. At the end of the day , why should the Australian consumer be limited or restricted to certain bookmakers? The clear winners here are the local Australian bookies and its a good incentive by the government to keep the Aussie money in Australia.The reality is , the bookmakers of Australia offer an inferior product, not so great odds and they are simply doing it 'to keep the Aussie businesses' happy is a stupid incentive. (A bit like the Interactive Gambling Act- which prohibits live betting).

I just like having a bit more variety in markets, not being charged a higher commission rate- and you just want to be wary of a monopoly totally dominating the market. I had a friend before that was charged for the Betfair Premium charge, which took away 20% of his profits at one stage. Very rarely does Betfair offer any incentive or promos- not that it needs to do it. The other exchanges, still behind in liquidity and marketing, have to do these incentives to attract new punters and keep their brand up there. In a way settling the recent, US election earlier is better for them- to keep their customers happy and to a slight extent from a marketing perspective similar to how Sportsbet did with their early payout of Biden. I'm sure also if there is a small chance had Trump overturned the decisions in the courts, the exchanges or overseas bookies would pay that out as well.

Racing NSW had their own 2.4% Turnover charge which was implemented into Betfair- which I prefer not to go into. (I am not a horse punter by any means)

Its like having a Coles v Woolworths, it would add a bit of competition in the local scene and give the consumer a bit of choice. I leave this as a situation for you guys

Assuming Model A v Model B exchanges

Model A: 5% commission on a $100,000 potential Profit, where if you won you would get back $95,000. Assuming you were a long term winner, you may be forced to pay extra charges, premium charge, etc

Model B: 2% Commission on a $100,000 potential profit, where if you won you would get back $98,000. That's yours to keep- no need to worry about the future.



which would you take?

We had that option. It only got taken away recently under the guise of protecting the punter so that all the punting money can stay in Australia and be fully taxed. They won't be reversing that decision any time in the near future

 

[asanque]

So few things there - yes all other Corps have paid out. Apart from top sport I think.
betfair have communicated a solid date now- sweet we’re all aware of that.

Topsport were one of the good ones. They paid out straight after the election.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

All these days its basically a dollar today is worth the same in a years time given interest rates and inflation (inb4 bitcoin)

I’m sure Betfair is doing nicely on that $2bil it’s holding even if interest rates are minuscule

 

[99 Problems]

I Agree that a local betting exchange wouldn't work.

But having the option of a 2nd betting exchange- a global one, can make a difference. I believe the Australian punter will get that option sooner rather than later. At the end of the day , why should the Australian consumer be limited or restricted to certain bookmakers? The clear winners here are the local Australian bookies and its a good incentive by the government to keep the Aussie money in Australia.The reality is , the bookmakers of Australia offer an inferior product, not so great odds and they are simply doing it 'to keep the Aussie businesses' happy is a stupid incentive. (A bit like the Interactive Gambling Act- which prohibits live betting).

I just like having a bit more variety in markets, not being charged a higher commission rate- and you just want to be wary of a monopoly totally dominating the market. I had a friend before that was charged for the Betfair Premium charge, which took away 20% of his profits at one stage. Very rarely does Betfair offer any incentive or promos- not that it needs to do it. The other exchanges, still behind in liquidity and marketing, have to do these incentives to attract new punters and keep their brand up there. In a way settling the recent, US election earlier is better for them- to keep their customers happy and to a slight extent from a marketing perspective similar to how Sportsbet did with their early payout of Biden. I'm sure also if there is a small chance had Trump overturned the decisions in the courts, the exchanges or overseas bookies would pay that out as well.

Racing NSW had their own 2.4% Turnover charge which was implemented into Betfair- which I prefer not to go into. (I am not a horse punter by any means)

Its like having a Coles v Woolworths, it would add a bit of competition in the local scene and give the consumer a bit of choice. I leave this as a situation for you guys

Assuming Model A v Model B exchanges

Model A: 5% commission on a $100,000 potential Profit, where if you won you would get back $95,000. Assuming you were a long term winner, you may be forced to pay extra charges, premium charge, etc

Model B: 2% Commission on a $100,000 potential profit, where if you won you would get back $98,000. That's yours to keep- no need to worry about the future.



which would you take?

Whether an exchange is liquid or low in liquidity is not the point I am trying to make, its more the options available and an astute punter can still profit from a market with not as deep of liquidity.

Considering the taxes and fees paid by betfair I think they are as competitive as they possibly can be here. I don’t see the benefit to a global exchange setting up here considering the costs and fees they’d have to pay.

 

[bjgplaya]

Response from TAB today:

"When the result is determined official, all pending bets will be resulted."

Also:

Official result is to be determined by the US Government and beyond any reasonable doubt. The result is being contested by the Trump camp and until this has been dropped, or all disputes thrown out, we are still awaiting an official result.

The fact they continually use the term "Trump Camp" means these guys have NFI what they are talking about.
Meh - Anyway would recommend you lodge a complaint with the VGLRC if anything so this never happens again.

In the meantime - with all this talk of pardons and self pardons - Trump to leave before first term looks pretty juicy at about $7 on the exchange atm.

The jury is out on whether a self pardon would hold - so next best thing would be to resign and get a pardon from Mike Pence. This wont affect betting btw before you put money on him at 1000-1. Altho who knows what TAB might try and pull..

 

[Tabcorp]

TAB can't payout when we've massively hedged our position on Betfair. Remember that we're more risk averse than you the punter. Blame the exchange not us.

 

[bjgplaya]

TAB can't payout when we've massively hedged our position on Betfair. Remember that we're more risk averse than you the punter. Blame the exchange not us.

Lol sounding a lot like not my problem that you can't manage your own H2H market book, of which up until live betting were holding almost 80% on the loser lol.
So not sure wtf hedging is going on to be in that predicament lol.

 

[Swansong05]

How come all of my posts have been taken down ?? And all the replies ?? What's going on ?? Is this suppression of opinion or what .. I'm guessing Alexandria Cortez must have had a cry and couldn't handle a bit of counter argument coming back her way .. absolutely pathetic !!! Like I said Alexandria have a look at your first two posts and they have nothing to do with punting . And like I also said Alexandria Cortez is still upset about crooked Hillary not winning back in 2016 .. long time to hold a grudge sweetheart .. by the way did anyone look at Joe Biden admitting voter fraud on YouTube ??? Still waiting for a reply and a explanation .. I apologize if I upset any of the snowflakes out there .

 

[Red Dog Styles]

How come all of my posts have been taken down ?? And all the replies ?? What's going on ?? Is this suppression of opinion or what .. I'm guessing Alexandria Cortez must have had a cry and couldn't handle a bit of counter argument coming back her way .. absolutely pathetic !!! Like I said Alexandria have a look at your first two posts and they have nothing to do with punting . And like I also said Alexandria Cortez is still upset about crooked Hillary not winning back in 2016 .. long time to hold a grudge sweetheart .. by the way did anyone look at Joe Biden admitting voter fraud on YouTube ??? Still waiting for a reply and a explanation .. I apologize if I upset any of the snowflakes out there .

Taken down most likely due to this being a betting thread, not a conspiracy rant. However for me your light humour is a welcome respite against my frustration at tab not resulting the outcome of J-Biden. Though as said previously, will be good timing for Christmas.

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