Cricket Betting. Best Cricket Tipster in the land in here.
- Thread starter Austoraisetheurn
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- May 6, 2009
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There is truckloads of value to be had in the man of the match markets for the int t20, just as there was in the one dayers.
Safe bet to usually be the highest scoring batsmen on the winning team-
Simply forget the bowlers and allrounders, pick a team you think will win and put a few clams each on a couple of their best in-form batsmen.
I used this to great effect during the one dayers.
Missed smith in the first game, but got him for the second game @ 12.50 boosted (this came down to actual resulting odds of 7.50 after I account for the other losing man of the match bets I placed on the game)
Then got pandya in the 3rd game @ 21.25 boosted (actual return odds of 14.60 after accounting for other losing bets)
I think india will win tomorrow so I like the looks of kohli, rahul, pandya etc
Safe bet to usually be the highest scoring batsmen on the winning team-
Simply forget the bowlers and allrounders, pick a team you think will win and put a few clams each on a couple of their best in-form batsmen.
I used this to great effect during the one dayers.
Missed smith in the first game, but got him for the second game @ 12.50 boosted (this came down to actual resulting odds of 7.50 after I account for the other losing man of the match bets I placed on the game)
Then got pandya in the 3rd game @ 21.25 boosted (actual return odds of 14.60 after accounting for other losing bets)
I think india will win tomorrow so I like the looks of kohli, rahul, pandya etc
Austoraisetheurn
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- Aug 25, 2019
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- #678
Like the look of Shikar Dhawan to hit over 0.5 sixes @ $2.40 with the tab.
This lad does alright against us in Australia. Bit of value to be had.
This lad does alright against us in Australia. Bit of value to be had.
Austoraisetheurn
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- #679
So you hit a few juicy bets and you think there is truckloads of value.
Kind of like the lad who pashes on with a decent looking bird on the dancefloor and all of a sudden he thinks he is Brad Pitt.
Man of the match markets are notoriously hard to hit.
Using them as a proxy is even harder.
Will follow with interest, but im the king for a reason.
- May 6, 2009
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Most royalty are inbred, so your story checks out your majesty.
Yes motm is tough to hit, but if you sprinkle the love around a little (and ignore bowlers and allrounders) and take advantage of places like ladbrokes who have their market set all over the shop, and sportsbet who have some value too (but limiting amounts allowed on) it can work very nicely.
Where's your tips?
you've got us all on the edge of our seat now that the internationals are upon us and not that domestic trash?
I'll throw you another bone because I'm feeling generous- glen maxwell is inexplicably paying 2.25 (last on the quoted odds list) to score 20+ runs at lads.
He's also paying $12 for him to be oz top scorer and india win the match double.
Tremendous value.
Also pandya india top scorer/india win double was at 17 bucks but has been smashed in now i think
- May 6, 2009
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Pandya india top score/bumrah most ind wickets double paying $31 @ lads.
On the OZ side maxwell/zampa double @ $23 looks yummy value too.
On the OZ side maxwell/zampa double @ $23 looks yummy value too.
Austoraisetheurn
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- #682
Adding small stakes on shikar dwahan to hit 2 or more sixes @ $5.00 with TAB
Austoraisetheurn
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- #683
- May 6, 2009
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Well done on calling it an hour AFTER india shat the bed.
big call mate with them sitting at 5-stuff all at the time you decided to pipe up
Austoraisetheurn
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- #685
Mate this is my thread. Why don't you pipe down. Im tall and handsome.
Austoraisetheurn
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- #686
From the first t20 but this was absolute value. Hope some of you soft lads got on this for the 2nd t20. I didnt. Shikar loves the faster wickets here in Aus and SA.
Get on again in the 3rd t20 if the same price is offered.
Austoraisetheurn
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- #687
TAB have a market "To Score and Win".
Kohli 25+ runs and WIN is at $3.25
This is YUUGGEE value. If you don't throw $20 dollars on this market then you are a mug.
This market cashes more than 50% of the time, and a bookie is offering you odds equivalent to 31%.
Only better feeling is to be tongue wrestling a bird.
Kohli 25+ runs and WIN is at $3.25
This is YUUGGEE value. If you don't throw $20 dollars on this market then you are a mug.
This market cashes more than 50% of the time, and a bookie is offering you odds equivalent to 31%.
Only better feeling is to be tongue wrestling a bird.
it happens "more than 50% of the time" if you limit the timeframe to one that suits and includes games where they start $1.30-$1.50 versus Sri Lanka and West Indies
it's every chance to win but in a ~$1.80 game vs Australia it's absolutely not an odds on prop that "more than 50%" would suggest
it's every chance to win but in a ~$1.80 game vs Australia it's absolutely not an odds on prop that "more than 50%" would suggest
Austoraisetheurn
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- #689
Well. Dont take the tip. Even better yet. Post some of your own.
- Jan 25, 2016
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Has Urnie tried out ‘Tender Mums’ ?
- May 6, 2009
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So far in the 5 big bash games to date the first wicket method of dismissal has been:
3x caught
2 x lbw
Sportsbet allow you to multi (and boost) first dismissal = lbw and first dismissal caught = no... for a tidy $11 return.
Maybe the first handful of games are an outlier and there will be stuff all lbw first wickets for the rest of the tournament?
But for now, it's happening at a rate 4 times greater than the odds suggest.
Edit 29/12:
Instead of clogging the thread with updates, I've decided to edit this post with updates for a while to keep track.
it's now 4/18 games lbw first wicket.
3x caught
2 x lbw
Sportsbet allow you to multi (and boost) first dismissal = lbw and first dismissal caught = no... for a tidy $11 return.
Maybe the first handful of games are an outlier and there will be stuff all lbw first wickets for the rest of the tournament?
But for now, it's happening at a rate 4 times greater than the odds suggest.
Edit 29/12:
Instead of clogging the thread with updates, I've decided to edit this post with updates for a while to keep track.
it's now 4/18 games lbw first wicket.
Last edited:
- May 6, 2009
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And bang, just like that it goes to 3 lbws from 6 games paying $11.60
Your move urnie.
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- May 6, 2009
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So I've had a look at this a bit more closely.
It really is quite incredible that we've had 3 lbw first wicket games in 6 matches.
I looked at every one of the 61 games from last season and there was a grand total of 3 from 61!
Of course I'm not expecting anything close to the current 50% strike rate to continue- but perhaps we are seeing the start of a trend for this season where first wicket lbws are more common than the 3/61 rate of last year?
(Incidentally, the bookies aren't being very generous offering 10/1 on lbws off the back of 3/61. Should be closer to 20/1!)
The 3 lbws from this season have all been taken by spinners, 2 of them came in the 5th over and the other in the 2nd.
Are spinners coming on to bowl earlier than last year? = more first wicket lbws?
Are opening partnerships lasting longer than last year? = getting out to spinners more after seeing off the quicks?
Combination of both?
Was last season an outlier and 3/61 strikerate is low by historical averages?
All of these questions and more I have.... yet currently cannot be bothered answering.
It's probably a statistic anomaly, they happen from time to time and your sample size of 6 games is far too few to draw any conclusions. Expect regression to the mean to occur over the next few games.
Case study: 2011 AFL season
In 2011 the AFL introduced the interchange rule, whereby instead of having four players available for rotation there was now three and one substitute player and it remained to be seen what impact, if any, this would have on games. Nonetheless the season took a surprising turn in the first four rounds, with three draws taking place in just 32 games, a strike rate of almost 10%.
Round 1 - Melbourne drew with Sydney
Round 2 - St Kilda drew with Richmond
Round 4 - Essendon drew with Carlton
I distinctly recall reading an article by a footy journo, who I suspect was Jon Ralph, saying that, as a result of the interchange rule we would see more draws, as evidenced by the three draws in 4 rounds of footy. This is a guy who makes a living from writing about football players, not understanding basic mathematical concepts such as sample size and extrapolation.
That was the last draw of the season, and indeed the following 2012 season there was only 1 draw, and again in 2013 there was only 1 draw, all while the interchange rule, which was attributed as the reason for this statistical anomaly, remained in place.
Short answer is you've got lucky backing something that's come up more often than expected congrats, but I wouldn't up your stakes just yet, as there's a fair chance that, like Jon Ralph, you're interpreting things incorrectly.
- May 6, 2009
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I wholeheartedly agree, which is why i said "perhaps" we are seeing a new trend.
You will see I haven't drawn conclusions anywhere, merely posted the data and raised a few hypotheses.
I haven't interpreted anything, so I disagree naturally that I have interpreted anything incorrectly.
Reversion to the mean is indeed a very real and inescapable fact of life, and it's something our brains have a hard time accepting because we are hard wired to look for trends, patterns and sequences.
We readily assign meaning to meaningless random chance because we can make up a neat story to explain it.
It reminds me of this recent story:
Unusual string of consecutive numbers drawn in South African lottery draw
The debate about whether South Africa’s lottery is rigged continues after a recent draw came up with an unusual string of consecutive numbers.
www.news.com.au
Our little brains can't comprehend that the lotto number sequence 5,6,7,8,9,10 is just as likely to occur as any other set of lotto numbers.
I look forward to gaining more data points as the season progresses.
- May 6, 2009
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Haha, nice try but the extra 16% value from making a multi is more the cherry on top rather than the flour and eggs.
Plus I just noticed lads offer the same ability to multi, plus they have the same markets for first wicket, 2nd innings too which SB don't.
