Hinesight v Knightsight v Hindsight 2020

[Apples]

I think the decision to move Stevo along will prove to be the right call. There were enough rumours circulating about his hub behaviour, to suggest he wasn't a popular team man or a particularly smart guy. His record of indiscretions suggests he is a very slow learner.

As for Treloar, I bow to the better judges about him being a star. I never saw him as such. Many times at quarter breaks I was astonished to compare my stats to those at Footy Wire. How could I miss him so often? I'd have a few ticks beside his name and yet, there he would be with 12 possessions in a quarter.

I understand the individual biases we all have, and I'm perfectly willing to accept I may miss a lot (especially with the terrible non-camera-side vision that Fox persists with - who can tell what's happening on the outer wing with Fox camera work?), but Treloar's possessions often appeared to be somewhat ineffective. Dinky kicks to a flat-footed teammate, ditto give-away handballs. He worked hard and ran all day, but in my opinion didn't provide enough quality ball use to be tagged a star.

 

[Knightmare]

KM... you lost me at Phillips. He's a worker, but never going to have enough weapons, other than pinching the odd goal. Yeah he can run and pick up possies, but you dont really want it in his hands too much.

& I think Hine sees more mid / fwd potential in Henry, than you give him credit for. He is silk with ball in hand, and can deliver to fwd targets, as well as mark & goal, and can kick goals on the run. I see some Stevie J (though better mark) & JDG in him (not as powerful)... plus - dare I say it - a shorter version of Fyfe. VERY clever, skilful and strong in the marking contest. I've also seen him tackle & pressure, so his defensive game isnt totally missing. He's just not cyril type burst pace and tackle. But not many are. 6' 2" is too small for an intercepting backman, so he has to be half forward, rotating to midfield.

Would love to hear more from Buckenara re why he had him ranked higher than both Phillips & Hollands in the draft. Obviously also sees him as a very damaging player either forward or higher up the ground.

Hope Essendon live to regret not taking him instead of Perkins... not to mention Macrae

I look at Phillips for who he is and find what he brings to the table as more than adequate. There aren't many guys who can get you 25d per game and a goal every second game. He's also importantly not allergic to winning his own ball or tackling. He works both ways. For an outside player, I look at that as an above average contribution by position. There aren't many at his position who tick all those boxes. And there aren't many outside players who can both find the footy and do damage by position to make a Phillips obsolete until we start getting some tall contested marking wings who impact games in different ways.

Henry I don't see nearly as positively. Don't forget in defence, Howe is only 190cm, Henry at 188cm probably grows to about that with some luck. The hope would be that he can develop enough 1v1 and then use his aerial work and strong marking to intercept.

I see a very much toned down version version of what you see in Henry re. ball in hand/ball use. There are bits of that, but not on that level. It would have been interesting watching his development this year though to see how much his game may have grown.

I've got Macrae over Perkins as a midfielder.

One interesting vision I have for Perkins is playing in defence. With the way he takes on the game with his run, uses it by foot and can take a grab overhead. I think that's his optimised usage.

Knightmare , of the 40+ Players on a list, what distinctive categories of player would be in a squad (ruck, small forward, outside mid ... and ... and ...?) and how many of each category would each team have in their squad? How much would it vary from team to team, depending on gameplan, depending on coaching preferences? How would it vary depending on whether a team is either developing, or in a so called “window”?

What positions on the ground are offering the best recruitment value at the moment from a moneyball point of view?

Interesting questions. It would take time to do that kind of breakdown. It brings up the question whether teams play to their personnel or play to how the coach wants a team to play, and you'll probably find some variety or combination of the two. I'm not necessarily seeing a specific combination of types of players as being what dictates a club being in a window though. I look at more-so the overall quality of the best 22 with the team with the most talent - if it's a cohesive unit that best adheres to and executes their game plan as generally having the best winning chances. And I think in the case of Richmond, people underrate and misunderstand a lot of the talent on that list and how good a lot of those guys are when you really compare their games to those on rival teams. Geelong have a great deal of talent now with their offseason acquisitions so it will be interesting to see whether they can topple Richmond in 2021.

The best position of recruitment value more years than not from a moneyball point of view generally is inside mids. They fall later than they should and tend at most points in the draft to have the highest conversion rate, particularly when they win a high % contested (Rockliff/Lyons/Sloane top of mind). I'm also looking more generally at mature age selections and mature age general defenders to be very high % late in the draft (Ryan/Rampe top of mind). And really with those general forwards and defenders you can get a lot of the best ones late (Saad/Crisp/Lloyd/Houli/Tipungwuti/Papley/Cameron/Miers for a few top of mind). With rucks a lot of the time as rookies (Cox/Sandilands/Mumford/Jolly. McInerney more recently top of mind), often turning out as well or better than those taken early.
It's an idea actually I might tackle in a future YouTube video. Thanks for the idea.

 

[Knightmare]

I think the decision to move Stevo along will prove to be the right call. There were enough rumours circulating about his hub behaviour, to suggest he wasn't a popular team man or a particularly smart guy. His record of indiscretions suggests he is a very slow learner.

As for Treloar, I bow to the better judges about him being a star. I never saw him as such. Many times at quarter breaks I was astonished to compare my stats to those at Footy Wire. How could I miss him so often? I'd have a few ticks beside his name and yet, there he would be with 12 possessions in a quarter.

I understand the individual biases we all have, and I'm perfectly willing to accept I may miss a lot (especially with the terrible non-camera-side vision that Fox persists with - who can tell what's happening on the outer wing with Fox camera work?), but Treloar's possessions often appeared to be somewhat ineffective. Dinky kicks to a flat-footed teammate, ditto give-away handballs. He worked hard and ran all day, but in my opinion didn't provide enough quality ball use to be tagged a star.

The discussion of where Treloar sits as a player in the AFL is an interesting one to discuss.

Where did Treloar sit among Collingwood's best midfielders? For me he's in the same category as Pendlebury (this age/stage Pendlebury), Adams and Sidebottom. Some might have him slightly below, or slightly above, but I have him in that conversation. He's the highest volume accumulator and contested ball winner but in terms of going both ways and ball use I happen to agree his work isn't of the quality of a Pendlebury or Sidebottom. Though when he still had his speed I did find him more impactful with that burst making him more of a factor offensively.

Is Treloar a best 10 mid in the league? Best 15? Best 20?

I'm not necessarily convinced as we speak that Collingwood have a top-15 in the competition mid. But I'd say all those guys are in that top 15-30 conversation with no meaningful separation between any of them, though some seasons one is higher and the next season they're lower in ranking those four.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Literally.

Or so the story goes.

It's bad enough if it happened, much worse that we all heard about it IMO

Still no excuse to flog him off at a bargain basement price. We kept Aaron James years ago after he urinated on a woman and he didn't have half Stephenson's talent.

 

[Spuddd]

The discussion of where Treloar sits as a player in the AFL is an interesting one to discuss.

Where did Treloar sit among Collingwood's best midfielders? For me he's in the same category as Pendlebury (this age/stage Pendlebury), Adams and Sidebottom. Some might have him slightly below, or slightly above, but I have him in that conversation. He's the highest volume accumulator and contested ball winner but in terms of going both ways and ball use I happen to agree his work isn't of the quality of a Pendlebury or Sidebottom. Though when he still had his speed I did find him more impactful with that burst making him more of a factor offensively.

Is Treloar a best 10 mid in the league? Best 15? Best 20?

I'm not necessarily convinced as we speak that Collingwood have a top-15 in the competition mid. But I'd say all those guys are in that top 15-30 conversation with no meaningful separation between any of them, though some seasons one is higher and the next season they're lower in ranking those four.

How can you say Collingwood don't have a top 15 mid when we consistently have players in the AA team, specifically occupying a midfield position?

It would be hard to look past the likes of Adams and Pendlebury as a top 15 midfielder with this in mind, throw in the consistent Brownlow performances of Pendlebury and I think at a minimum he is a top 15 mid.

Treloar too, is in that top echelon of players, arguably higher than Adams on pure talent and ability, but below him based on actual output due to injury.

A top 15 Mids (in no order) would look like this in my opinion:
Adams, Pendlebury, D Martin, Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Neale, Fyfe, P Cripps, T Kelly, Shuey, J Kelly, C Petracca, Boak, Prestia, McCrae

JPK, Treloar, T Mitchell, Gaff, L Parker - all could easily round out that top 15 but would be more 10-25 range, rather than top 10.

 

[sr36]

The discussion of where Treloar sits as a player in the AFL is an interesting one to discuss.

I'm pretty sure that it's now decided that he sits at the Western Oval.

 

[sr36]

How can you say Collingwood don't have a top 15 mid when we consistently have players in the AA team, specifically occupying a midfield position?

It would be hard to look past the likes of Adams and Pendlebury as a top 15 midfielder with this in mind, throw in the consistent Brownlow performances of Pendlebury and I think at a minimum he is a top 15 mid.

Treloar too, is in that top echelon of players, arguably higher than Adams on pure talent and ability, but below him based on actual output due to injury.

A top 15 Mids (in no order) would look like this in my opinion:
Adams, Pendlebury, D Martin, Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Neale, Fyfe, P Cripps, T Kelly, Shuey, J Kelly, C Petracca, Boak, Prestia, McCrae

JPK, Treloar, T Mitchell, Gaff, L Parker - all could easily round out that top 15 but would be more 10-25 range, rather than top 10.

When you look at those names, a top 15 mid is one hell of a player and I daresay that you've missed a few as well. I wouldn't have Treloar up there with the others and Adams needs to back up 2020 before I'd put him in the same ball park as the others as well.

 

[Knightmare]

How can you say Collingwood don't have a top 15 mid when we consistently have players in the AA team, specifically occupying a midfield position?

It would be hard to look past the likes of Adams and Pendlebury as a top 15 midfielder with this in mind, throw in the consistent Brownlow performances of Pendlebury and I think at a minimum he is a top 15 mid.

Treloar too, is in that top echelon of players, arguably higher than Adams on pure talent and ability, but below him based on actual output due to injury.

A top 15 Mids (in no order) would look like this in my opinion:
Adams, Pendlebury, D Martin, Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Neale, Fyfe, P Cripps, T Kelly, Shuey, J Kelly, C Petracca, Boak, Prestia, McCrae

JPK, Treloar, T Mitchell, Gaff, L Parker - all could easily round out that top 15 but would be more 10-25 range, rather than top 10.

I do feel Adams was lucky to make the All-Australian team last year and Pendlebury lucky to make the squad of 40.

I'd go in no particular order with: Danger, Fyfe, Bont, Cripps, Neale, T.Kelly, Petracca, Rowell, Oliver, Steele, Macrae, Mitchell, Dunkley, Boak, Yeo, J.Kelly, Zorko and Cunnington I view favourably to the Pies big-4 mids at this age/stage, or I guess now the big-3 + Treloar.

The likes of Whitfield, Sloane, Shuey, Parker, Taranto, Kennedy, Heppell, Shiel, McGrath, McCluggage, Gaff, Coniglio, Merrett, Simpkin, Prestia, Sheed and Wines are among some others top of mind I place in that next 15 category along with the likes of Pendlebury/Treloar/Adams/Sidebottom.

And it's possible I missed some. I'm just working top of mind.

 

[manicpie]

I assume not literally?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yep, literally

 

[regpies]

I'd go in no particular order with: Danger, Fyfe, Bont, Cripps, Neale, T.Kelly, Petracca, Rowell, Oliver, Steele, Macrae, Mitchell, Dunkley, Boak, Yeo, J.Kelly, Zorko and Cunnington I view favourably to the Pies big-4 mids at this age/stage, or I guess now the big-3 +

I reckon Dunkley doesn’t deserve to be rated that highly after the year he had.

Zorko is a down hill skier who can’t handle the slightest of tags. If you can’t handle a tag as a mid you shouldn’t be considered top 15.

Yeo is too inconsistent, has some great games but really can go missing.

Adams was really consistent this year, I’d have him ahead of Zorko, Cunnington and Yeo on that list.

 

[Knightmare]

I reckon Dunkley doesn’t deserve to be rated that highly after the year he had.

Zorko is a down hill skier who can’t handle the slightest of tags. If you can’t handle a tag as a mid you shouldn’t be considered top 15.

Yeo is too inconsistent, has some great games but really can go missing.

Adams was really consistent this year, I’d have him ahead of Zorko, Cunnington and Yeo on that list.

Dunkley this year didn't get to play the midfield minutes he needs. I see him as a genuine number one ball winner. He's a 310cp, 140t, 120cl a year mid. And really those 2019 numbers he can improve on quite a bit if he was to be used as a permanent midfielder as he didn't start 2019 through the midfield, really only round 7 if I recall correctly jumping in there. So you could bump those numbers pretty easily to 330cp, 150t, 130cl a year which is elite, elite. He's for me a firm top-10 mid, he's just underutilised and poorly utilised, due to the sheer number of mids the Dogs need to use and rotate through there. He's just not on the right team to maximise his output.

Zorko I'm a fan of. He's a difference maker at stoppages. Has a big impact on clearance differential. He'll win it. Tackles well. But his ball use is seriously good with his hitting of i50 targets, then he hits the scoreboard. There are so many ways he hurts you. I agree with you that he can't be your number one ball winner and as you say can be tagged out of games, but I don't see any of Collingwood's mids as number one options either. Only of Collingwood's mids Pendlebury can deal with a tag. But Pendlebury is not from a scoreboard impact or versatility standpoint with Zorko also damaging as a forward doing as much, so it depends on what you value more. They're both for me #2 mids though and not the guys you want as your #1 ball winner.

Yeo hasn't been as good this year, but the two years before was better than any of Collingwood's mids as a 300cp+ mid in 2018/2019 and good for high 160t per season also. Good for better than a goal every second game. That's a nice impact. Nearing 20 Brownlow votes per game. And you get with Yeo the versatility to be more than just a stoppage player as he can as you need him to, to play back or forward and be a genuine contested marking target. With all those options he gives you, while I agree his 2020 season isn't up to his normal standard, I'd still take him for 2021 over any of the Pies mids or Treloar.

And Cunnington is another where this year we hardly saw him, but go look back at what he did in 2018/2019. He's a 340cp per year mid on a team not making the finals. 2019 he had 160 clearances. His inside craft is elite. Lacks the diversity to his game of some of the other mids on the list, but he has Adams covered both for stoppage craft and also hits the scoreboard at a high rate. He remains the better footballer and from a more practical standpoint while it didn't prove so this season given he played just the three games, he's also the more durable.

 

[soreplums]

Treloar is a ball winner. Wins the ball in the contest, but often gets wrapped up with it.

Can we find someone who wins the ball and turn it into a clearance? Or did Treloar halving a contest show where our midfield is really at?

 

[jackcass]

We pretty clearly didn't havethe cap space for either of them, so not really relevant how much they may have added to the team.

I’m not sure why people assume w didn’t have the cap space given the off-season departures. More likely a case that we didn’t rate them relative to retaining the freed up cap space to chase FA’s in 2021.

 

[sr36]

I’m not sure why people assume w didn’t have the cap space given the off-season departures. More likely a case that we didn’t rate them relative to retaining the freed up cap space to chase FA’s in 2021.

The club finally came out and admitted it, didn't they?

 

[jackcass]

I believe that the club is making an error in shying away from the big forwards. They should be able to look ahead to the way the game is likely to develop as the AFL moves to adjust the rules. It is clear that the closing down of the game that coaches have achieved is not acceptable to the AFL or anyone else. The rules will be changed and changed again to try to restore some of the spectacle and flow that the game used to feature. To concentrate on recruiting players suited to the congested style of play we have now, assuming that it will continue to be that way seems short sighted to me. A bit of insurance with players able to compete and win one on one, to lead into space and so on in the expectation that those conditions may return due to rule changes would seem prudent.

I thought we’d recruited to accommodate the changes the AFL’s new rule interpretations will drive. They are striving for a more open dynamic style with quick ball movement between zones to players who either have the pace to gain separation or win the footy in the air. Couple of explosive line breakers, marking strength, and endurance seems to address all of that. I also think we would have taken either Cox or Logan McDonald if we’d had the opportunity.

 

[jackcass]

The club finally came out and admitted it, didn't they?

They admitted there was issues with the TPP but do the sums and tell me we aren’t banking space. Beams payout off the 2021 TPP. Front loading Treloar’s cost to the Doggies in 2021. They’re specific mechanisms to spend in 2021 which could easily have been structured differently if we’d wanted either Brown or McDonald.

 

[jackcass]

Still no excuse to flog him off at a bargain basement price. We kept Aaron James years ago after he urinated on a woman and he didn't have half Stephenson's talent.

Gee, that’s an interesting comparison. On pure talent I’d find them hard to separate.

 

[gouki88]

I do feel Adams was lucky to make the All-Australian team last year and Pendlebury lucky to make the squad of 40.

I'd go in no particular order with: Danger, Fyfe, Bont, Cripps, Neale, T.Kelly, Petracca, Rowell, Oliver, Steele, Macrae, Mitchell, Dunkley, Boak, Yeo, J.Kelly, Zorko and Cunnington I view favourably to the Pies big-4 mids at this age/stage, or I guess now the big-3 + Treloar.

The likes of Whitfield, Sloane, Shuey, Parker, Taranto, Kennedy, Heppell, Shiel, McGrath, McCluggage, Gaff, Coniglio, Merrett, Simpkin, Prestia, Sheed and Wines are among some others top of mind I place in that next 15 category along with the likes of Pendlebury/Treloar/Adams/Sidebottom.

And it's possible I missed some. I'm just working top of mind.

Wow, holy mother of grass is always greener!

 

[Barnard]

Defender. Had an up and down 2019 and 2020 really. Very quiet in the Tassie All-Star game. Only note I had of him was one intercept mark and short kick to target. So that was a letdown.

What he does though is have speed. He can break the lines from defence with his run. Has a physical edge to him. Strong tackler. Can win it contested. Had a contest v Eastern last year where he went in elbow first to the head for late contact which really got a lot of players excited. He's one of those guys where he'll pop up and have some good moments. Short kicking is good but not someone who does all that much damage by foot. He's just at this stage pretty raw and inconsistent as he's not every week going to impact games or do a lot and isn't consistent over four quarters.

He has also played some wing, but I don't see him as that natural or consistent enough accumulator, or to have the endurance where he can play the position to be realistic.

He's one where he's suitable for selection as a rookie, as he's someone you're taking a chance on, and will need considerable development.

I'd also in defence like to see him intercept at a higher frequency than he does. He can intercept some, but I'd like to see more of it.

Defender. Had an up and down 2019 and 2020 really. Very quiet in the Tassie All-Star game. Only note I had of him was one intercept mark and short kick to target. So that was a letdown.

What he does though is have speed. He can break the lines from defence with his run. Has a physical edge to him. Strong tackler. Can win it contested. Had a contest v Eastern last year where he went in elbow first to the head for late contact which really got a lot of players excited. He's one of those guys where he'll pop up and have some good moments. Short kicking is good but not someone who does all that much damage by foot. He's just at this stage pretty raw and inconsistent as he's not every week going to impact games or do a lot and isn't consistent over four quarters.

He has also played some wing, but I don't see him as that natural or consistent enough accumulator, or to have the endurance where he can play the position to be realistic.

He's one where he's suitable for selection as a rookie, as he's someone you're taking a chance on, and will need considerable development.

I'd also in defence like to see him intercept at a higher frequency than

Defender. Had an up and down 2019 and 2020 really. Very quiet in the Tassie All-Star game. Only note I had of him was one intercept mark and short kick to target. So that was a letdown.

What he does though is have speed. He can break the lines from defence with his run. Has a physical edge to him. Strong tackler. Can win it contested. Had a contest v Eastern last year where he went in elbow first to the head for late contact which really got a lot of players excited. He's one of those guys where he'll pop up and have some good moments. Short kicking is good but not someone who does all that much damage by foot. He's just at this stage pretty raw and inconsistent as he's not every week going to impact games or do a lot and isn't consistent over four quarters.

He has also played some wing, but I don't see him as that natural or consistent enough accumulator, or to have the endurance where he can play the position to be realistic.

He's one where he's suitable for selection as a rookie, as he's someone you're taking a chance on, and will need considerable development.

I'd also in defence like to see him intercept at a higher frequency than he does. He can intercept some, but I'd like to see more of it.

hey guys, not here to stir the pot, just thought I would offer some knowledge on Chugg as I have watched him play pretty much every game for Launceston this year. As always Knightmare has given a pretty good assessment of this kid and I can’t comment on the tassie all stars game as I haven’t seen it. Probably what most wouldn’t know about him is that he just seen him self as a 400 metre runner that played a bit of footy until his now manager called him for a chat last year, he honestly came on leaps and bounds this year after getting dropped from the seniors in round 1. He came back and played a completely different role locking down on the competitions best small forwards and also offered plenty of dash from defence, I was also surprised by his hardness and willingness to back into packs as I didn’t know he had that in him. What I would also point out is that whilst his numbers are not massive you have to remember he is playing in a state league against men that are playing for premierships where as the under 18 comps are first and foremost about developing young talent. Chugg was a role player in a very good side, he wasn’t afforded the luxury to go out and play his own game. I can’t say he will be a star or anything like that but I know he will work as hard as any to improve and keep learning. Hope he continues on the upward spiral.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the share.

I can't say I knew Chugg's history/background having only focused in on his match play.

He has a long way to develop, so it will be interesting to see how far he can take his footy.

 

[TradeDraft]

Thanks for the share.

I can't say I knew Chugg's history/background having only focused in on his match play.

He has a long way to develop, so it will be interesting to see how far he can take his footy.

Could be another Hine Special or Could never make it

 

[Copeland]

Sounds like we should of just kept stephenson ffs

Gotta cheaper version from EBay

 

[Copeland]

Could be another Hine Special or Could never make it

I find that hard to argue with.

 

[TradeDraft]

Poulter vs Carrol at Pick 30 been a Interesting Discussion.

Both Top 20 Prospects.

Guess we went for Poulter over Carrol because Poulter is a Tall Mid(Like Pendles) and Hine said he Looked Closely at SA and Tassie NOT WA

 

[whiskeytown]

Poulter vs Carrol at Pick 30 been a Interesting Discussion.

Both Top 20 Prospects.

Guess we went for Poulter over Carrol because Poulter is a Tall Mid(Like Pendles) and Hine said he Looked Closely at SA and Tassie NOT WA

Wellingham, Marsh, Abbott... We’ve had a couple of WA players go back for one reason or another.

Maybe they think the SA boys are slightly more likely to settle long term in Melbourne