Prediction 2021 Fixture

[Gosaints12]

As others have said glad we can't shy away from the challenge!!!

I’m not complaining, just saying it’s a long offseason, a little bit of footy now and then, (even in a draw) would be exciting.

To your point, I think we get what we are handed it’s the AFL discretion on who plays who. We will have to play hard teams as our last ladder position dictates. I for one wish we had Brissie travelling to Melbourne so we only needed to play them at home, but considering we just spend a year, (nearly) at the Gabba it’s almost a home game.


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[Palantine]

I can’t believe how many Saturday games we get! You won’t be getting my usual annual whinge this year, apologies.


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[Ricmel]

True the draw is tough, however Giants, Melbourne, Essendon and West Coast (Home) are all very winnable and could have us sit 4-0 going into Richmond in Rnd 5

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Agree they are all winnable but other than Essendon they are all close enough to 50/50. Given what comes after we probably need at least a 3-1 start.

 

[borderbarry]

Talk about getting screwed hard on the double ups. We finished 6th this year, 4/5 repeat matches are against teams that finished above us on the ladder!

Wrong Goodie, we finished 5th. We play EVERY team that finished above us twice.

 

[Crusty Undies]

Agree they are all winnable but other than Essendon they are all close enough to 50/50. Given what comes after we probably need at least a 3-1 start.

Melbourne is not even close to a 50/50 we should win that comfortably.

 

[Ricmel]

Melbourne is not even close to a 50/50 we should win that comfortably.

Depends which Melbourne turns up. In form, Melbourne is a top 8 side and if Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

31

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

finds form it is a serious structural injection into a side with a good midfield and very good defence. I mean we ended a game and a tiny bit of percentage ahead of them in 2020, a year when most thought Demons had a shocker and there was talk of getting rid of the coach. They are not easy beats

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Depends which Melbourne turns up. In form, Melbourne is a top 8 side and if Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

31

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

finds form it is a serious structural injection into a side with a good midfield and very good defence. I mean we ended a game and a tiny bit of percentage ahead of them in 2020, a year when most thought Demons had a shocker and there was talk of getting rid of the coach. They are not easy beats

You are basing your "odds" on no improvement over the off season?

 

[Ricmel]

You are basing your "odds" on no improvement over the off season?

Well you can't just assume St Kilda will improve and Melbourne won't. Who knows how each team will be playing in 2021. On exposed form the two teams are pretty close, last game Dees won by 3 points. I don't think there is a huge gap between the two teams.

 

[CaptainRisky]

We would have requested a bunch of those. Double ups against good sides mean two things:

- When away, we're more likely to be on TV in a good timeslot.
- When home, we'll probably get good crowds.

Like, if you play Gold Coast twice then that's two games which you basically lose money on. But if you play Richmond twice then you've probably $1m ahead just on those two games.

How do you know we asked to play the top teams twice ?
And at this stage we have no idea what the crowd numbers will even look like , a lot of water to go under the bridge before we start filling grounds full

 

[jwikked]

We would have requested a bunch of those. Double ups against good sides mean two things:

- When away, we're more likely to be on TV in a good timeslot.
- When home, we'll probably get good crowds.

Like, if you play Gold Coast twice then that's two games which you basically lose money on. But if you play Richmond twice then you've probably $1m ahead just on those two games.

I'd rather have 2 certain wins than two losses that pay well.

 

[Gosaints12]

Wrong Goodie, we finished 5th. We play EVERY team that finished above us twice.

Not Brissie.


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[PostmanBish]

Going beyond the fixture itself, it looks like the actual gameday experience (assuming we don't have rolling screwups all year) is going to be exceptionally different at Marvel, looking at their COVID-safe plan.

Marvel Stadium: marvelstadium.com.au

Marvel Stadium is a multi-purpose venue designed to cater to major sporting, entertainment, corporate or casual events - celebrate in true Melbourne style.

marvelstadium.com.au

Going to be really interesting to see how they deal with reserved seats, cheer squad, etc., and how the nuances of the policy will play out. Even when we weren't going so well we had some games which drew significant numbers (Carlton, Richmond, Essendon in particular) to Marvel, so with our improvement, I'm curious what other people think our typical lead-up to gameday will look like in 2021?

 

[bergholt]

I'd rather have 2 certain wins than two losses that pay well.

I agree, but I suspect that's not the case for the club. We're a poor club so we have to take all the money we can get.

 

[bergholt]

How do you know we asked to play the top teams twice ?
And at this stage we have no idea what the crowd numbers will even look like , a lot of water to go under the bridge before we start filling grounds full

Oh yeah, clearly I have no idea. My only logic is what I said in the post - the club clearly makes more money (short-term) out of playing good teams than bad teams.

 

[bergholt]

 

[jwikked]

I followed that link and I came across this article from October 2018: https://squiggle.com.au/how-the-fixture-screwed-st-kilda/

Well worth a read.

 

[saint66au]

If the big-drawing clubs are up and about, the Football Dept and Marketing Dept are rarely both happy with the draw.

 

[Gosaints12]

Merry Christmas lads. After the boys return from the New Years break, I’ll be getting pumped.


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[stfan]

Melbourne is not even close to a 50/50 we should win that comfortably.

Though we did lose last time:

 

[stfan]

I followed that link and I came across this article from October 2018: https://squiggle.com.au/how-the-fixture-screwed-st-kilda/

Well worth a read.

Looking at the their (Squiggle) wins projections for wins in 2021 you can really see how level they are projecting 2021 to be.

They have us at 6th at the end of the H&A, but the ladder is very tight.

One less win however could drop that to as low as 11th or 12th (It also depends on exactly who you lose to).

Two less projected wins and one could even plummet to 14th or 15th.

In such an even year a difficult fixture is even more of a penalty that it may normally be.

The half a dozen teams just below us will be very important games to mainly win.

The Dogs softer draw is a big advantage for them in 2021.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

just refresh my memory ... did we have a hard fixture or easy one in 2009 ????
the fixture is the fixture any team any time anywhere ... we have build a damn strong team one that will take a heck of an effort from our opponent to beat instead of us worrying about who we play twice the opponent should be worried they have been drawn to play us twice ....

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

just refresh my memory ... did we have a hard fixture or easy one in 2009 ????
the fixture is the fixture any team any time anywhere ... we have build a damn strong team one that will take a heck of an effort from our opponent to beat instead of us worrying about who we play twice the opponent should be worried they have been drawn to play us twice ....

I think it was rated as a hard one, I do remember reading in the papers that everyone thought we were going to win the spoon in 2009

 

[George]

Yet we finished 5th last year. SoS really means nothing.

 

[bergholt]

Yet we finished 5th last year. SoS really means nothing.

You’re saying that because we outperformed last year therefore it’s not useful to try to assess how good or bad our draw is? Not a hugely useful take tbh.

 

[George]

You’re saying that because we outperformed last year therefore it’s not useful to try to assess how good or bad our draw is? Not a hugely useful take tbh.

That's right because teams will surprise and disappoint every year.