Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

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This thread is continued in Part 4:

 
A 55 year old is not comparable to a 85 year old no matter how much spin you put on it

It seems likely isnt a good enough answer. If I sold a car and you said "Does it work" and I said "It seems likely", will you just buy my car no other questions asked? You seem to think this standard of proof is OK so surely you would just buy it?

I 100% agree the data isnt enough and is sh*t. Im not the one however willing to justify decisions on said sh*t data. Id rather just get data that isnt sh*t and then make a decision

Im not ruling out the vaccine will work or not, im just ruling that the current data isnt enough to make a decision on. When we are saying 1 out of 10 when making a decision on 12 billion injections, I think thats a fair summation to make
My speculation is that there were not many over 85 in the trial so conclusions of statistical significance could not be drawn. I think that over 55 was part of trial design (? Hospitalisation rates start to increase at this point - again speculation)
 
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I think I may have misled some people by questioning the meaning of the 95% ! :$
Thanks again to all who replied with better understanding and information:thumbsu:

My interpretation/understanding prior to reading the document CrankyHawk provided and better later explanation offered by harrythetiger (htt)
was WRONG or incorrect

The study does not show that circa 5% will still get it.
Across the whole study only 0.3% actually became infected.
As htt explained previous page - the reduction in the expected number of cases (no vaccine ) will be reduced on average by 95% (those with vaccine) It is a measure of how effective the vaccine is, NOT what percentage of the population will get it anyway

Re the age groups click on table 3 of the document. It shows better demographic breakdown of age groups.
You will note in the over 75 age group the results were deemed 100% effective because no one in that small sample (about 800 each group) that got the vaccine became infected.

What they are saying is if the incidence of infection throughout a whole population is reduced by circa 95% (by vaccine) there will be much less cases, but some who are unfortunate to encounter still it will become sick.


.

0.3% is greater then the hospital rate though still which has to be a issue surely?

Id still like to see the stat counted right now among the 4.5 million and growing. If the US want to make 2 trillion dollars of monetary compensation based off the vaccine working and thereby economy returning to normal, id like to think they can throw a bit of that money into figuring out how effective the vaccine is?
 
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My speculation is that there were not many over 85 in the trial so conclusions of statistical significance could not be drawn. I think that over 55 was part of trial design (? Hospitalisation rates start to increase at this point - again speculation)

Read the research and trust the science and at the same time this entire last 3 pages have had, It seems, speculation, conclusions could not be drawn

Why are we lowering our burden of responsibility to these words? Its illogical
 

Corpuscles

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0.3% is greater then the hospital rate though still which has to be a issue surely?

Id still like to see the stat counted right now among the 4.5 million and growing. If the US want to make 2 trillion dollars of monetary compensation based off the vaccine working and thereby economy returning to normal, id like to think they can throw a bit of that money into figuring out how effective the vaccine is?

The 0.3 % was in total, and mainly (average 95% or 0.285% of that ) in the placebo unprotected group - leaving 0.015% cases after vaccination
It does not relate in any way to hospitalization rate. Most just got symptoms as described in the document.
They specifically targeted the study to places where the transmission rate through population was already very high.

They need to act with vaccine asap and the study WAS to determine indication (not fool proof) of indicative effectiveness.
Health officials will monitor rates post mass vaccination. Too early to get the full accurate understanding yet.

If I could assure you with 95% confidence that you would win Lotto, would you buy a ticket?
 
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The 0.3 % was in total, and mainly (average 95% or 0.285% of that ) in the placebo unprotected group - leaving 0.015% cases after vaccination
It does not relate in any way to hospitalization rate. Most just got symptoms as described in the document.
They specifically targeted the study to places where the transmission rate through population was already very high.

They need to act with vaccine asap and the study WAS to determine indication (not fool proof) of indicative effectiveness.
Health officials will monitor rates post mass vaccination. Too early to get the full accurate understanding yet.

If I could assure you with 95% confidence that you would win Lotto, would you buy a ticket?

If I could assure you with 95% confidence your car would work after 1 day, would you buy the car?

You can ask the question many ways to get the opposite response id say.

Getting the illness is the counter id care most about. As far as symptoms etc, we simply need a bigger research pool. Id like to count it going forward though and not just once. I dont get why thats a weird way to look at it?
 
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Sounds to me that people like Trump were missing the point of herd immunity and misusing the term, so they’ve changed their website to address that.
Do you think there's a serious scientist on the planet who gives two stuffs about what Trump or any other politician thinks?

Yet at least 50% of the posters in this thread speak about little else.
 

Corpuscles

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If I could assure you with 95% confidence your car would work after 1 day, would you buy the car?

You can ask the question many ways to get the opposite response id say.

Getting the illness is the counter id care most about. As far as symptoms etc, we simply need a bigger research pool. Id like to count it going forward though and not just once. I dont get why thats a weird way to look at it?

LOL! Fair enough, I should not have put in the last line
If I did not have a car, and the consequences of not having one, was sickness and possibly death, then I would buy if it reduced that chance by 95%!


They will monitor it ongoing.
However at present in many places in the world it is urgent and cannot wait for normal extensive bigger studies.
 
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You and Snake seem to be mostly agreeing but arguing over irrelevant details. My reservations about the Pfizer vaccine results are more broad.

The efficacy criteria used in the trial was comparison of 'Covid-19 cases'. I would argue that the aim of the vaccine should not be to just prevent mild symptoms, but to reduce hospitalisations, serious illness and death. There was very limited data on this in the trial.

The aim of the vaccine is to produce a better outcome than the present situation.

Another measure of efficacy might be whether a vaccine prevents the spread of the virus. This is not known from the trial results.

Of course it does.

The long term effects of the vaccine are unknown, such as whether it makes you more susceptible to other illnesses, or triggers an overactive immune response which is damaging.

Why would it be assumed that the vaccine has any "long term effects" after having gone through the initial phase trials?
 
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In regards to the vaccine

Lets run with the 95% efficacy. I dont think its ever been proven to be higher?

It's actually an unknown, hence the reason for confidence intervals.
 

mcnulty

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You just knew they were bullshitting. Surprising part is that they did (or rather, were allowed to) fess up.

“Russian COVID-19 death toll triples

Russia has admitted its national coronavirus death toll is more than three times higher than previously reported, making it the country with the third-largest number of fatalities.

For months President Vladimir Putin has boasted about Russia's low fatality rate from the virus, saying earlier this month that it had done a "better" job at managing the pandemic than Western countries - but since early in the pandemic, some Russian experts have said the Government was playing down the country's outbreak.

On Monday local time, Russian officials admitted that was true.

The Rosstat statistics agency said that the number of deaths from all causes recorded between January and November had risen by 229,700 compared to the previous year.

"More than 81 per cent of this increase in mortality over this period is due to COVID," said Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova, meaning that over 186,000 Russians have died from COVID-19.
 
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LOL! Fair enough, I should not have put in the last line
If I did not have a car, and the consequences of not having one, was sickness and possibly death, then I would buy if it reduced that chance by 95%!


They will monitor it ongoing.
However at present in many places in the world it is urgent and cannot wait for normal extensive bigger studies.

Because me winning the lotto or not would reduce the chance by 95% of me living or dieing too?

Point to me where they are monitoring it ongoing please? I cant find it

Its not a normal or extensive study. Its counting cases and categorising them. Its something thats already being done. You are adding 1 category to a database that already exists. The benefits of doing so are grand so you do it, I dont get why people dont want the information? What is the harm?
 
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My speculation is that there were not many over 85 in the trial so conclusions of statistical significance could not be drawn. I think that over 55 was part of trial design (? Hospitalisation rates start to increase at this point - again speculation)

We cannot look at the age factors whilst discounting sex.

1609203109942.png


a | COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) for males and females across 38 countries or regions reporting sex-disaggregated data on COVID-19 cases and deaths. CFR was calculated as the total number of deaths divided by the total number of cases for each sex multiplied by 100. The male CFR is higher than the female CFR in 37 of the 38 regions, with an average male CFR 1.7 times greater than the average female CFR (P < 0.0001, Wilcoxon signed rank test). b | Average COVID-19 CFRs for males and females stratified by age. The data represent 12 countries currently reporting sex- and age-disaggregated data on COVID-19 cases and deaths (Australia, Columbia, Denmark, Italy, Mexico, Norway, Pakistan, Philippines, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and England). The COVID-19 CFR increases for both sexes with advancing age, but males have a significantly higher CFR than females at all ages from 30 years (P < 0.05, Wilcoxon signed rank test). The data were obtained from Global Health 50/50 and official government websites of each respective country on 7 May and 8 May 2020.
 

Hornberger

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You just knew they were bullshitting. Surprising part is that they did (or rather, were allowed to) fess up.

“Russian COVID-19 death toll triples
When Moscow published mortality data for April (I think it was for April), the excess mortality for Moscow was higher than the official covid fatalities for all of Russia. The Russian government then accused the western media of publishing anti-Russian propaganda when they pointed out that the official statistics were obviously being understated.
 

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Because me winning the lotto or not would reduce the chance by 95% of me living or dieing too?

Point to me where they are monitoring it ongoing please? I cant find it

Its not a normal or extensive study. Its counting cases and categorising them. Its something thats already being done. You are adding 1 category to a database that already exists. The benefits of doing so are grand so you do it, I dont get why people dont want the information? What is the harm?

I was guessing or anticipating
My understanding is the health statistics are kept for all types of ailments in perpetuity.
It is too early to study results. The graph posted a few pages ago indicate that Israel has the highest earliest vaccine distribution so they might be better placed to assess it now or immediate future.
ie If someone in Israel (later likely all places with high vaccination rate ) is subsequently diagnosed with Covid in future, then the question - " have you been vaccinated" and result recorded and compiled?

I do not understand what your issue is?
What is the problem?
 
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Relevance to my comment though?

I don't know why people keep bringing up these clowns in thsi discussion, and without doubt, many frame their worldview of this around these idiots.

It's a complete distraction.
 
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I was guessing or anticipating
My understanding is the health statistics are kept for all types of ailments in perpetuity.
It is too early to study results. The graph posted a few pages ago indicate that Israel has the highest earliest vaccine distribution so they might be better placed to assess it now or immediate future.
ie If someone in Israel (later likely all places with high vaccination rate ) is subsequently diagnosed with Covid in future, then the question - " have you been vaccinated" and result recorded and compiled?

I do not understand what your issue is?
What is the problem?

Its not too early. Its too early for 100% accurate results we can fawn over as gospel but the counting needs to start now.

The problem is transparency and most importantly research upon research. You can never research enough surely

You may accept mediocrity because its the easy answer, but I wont

If you want to give us the vaccine, give us the research and data
 
This all comes back to the Testosterone/Thymus/T cell export link that I also posted about months ago*.

*Although I am puzzled by the 0-9 data.

Of recollection there were a small number of children who developed a Kawasaki - like disease
The article linked is case report + subsequent literature review, describing 4 children with Kawasaki like symptoms in the case report (one who died) aged between 2 to 10 - death may also be more COVID pneumonia/ hypoxia than the Kaswasaki component as well

Kawasaki-like disease in children with COVID-19 | SpringerLink
 
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Anyway, ladies and gentlemen...........

1609203995298.png


1) You were (generally) born with an optimal immune system.
2) It decreased over time.
3) The incidence of disease increased as a direct correlation.
4) You died (eventually).

1609203953045.png
 
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Of recollection there were a small number of children who developed a Kawasaki - like disease
The article linked is case report + subsequent literature review, describing 4 children with Kawasaki like symptoms in the case report (one who died) aged between 2 to 10 - death may also be more COVID pneumonia/ hypoxia than the Kaswasaki component as well

Kawasaki-like disease in children with COVID-19 | SpringerLink

Yeah, good input. I also did some quick looking around and found out that there's claims that thymic involution can commence as early as 9 months of age. I'm not really up to date with a lot of this stuff as I have been doing other things.
 
So when it comes to the disease, we cant compare it to the flu, its more serious. When it comes to the vaccine, its just like the flu vaccine so why follow up? It is hypocrisy. Im happy to go with you on the more serious then the flu, but the vaccine needs to be more serious then the flu too. You cant have it both ways to suit your ego

In any case, I wasnt aware you received a card when you got a flu vaccine?, I wasnt aware we counted every flu vaccine individually? I wasnt aware state governments had legislation being drawn up to define your movements based on a flu vaccination either? Its simply not the same. The burden of responsibiltiy is higher here so the government needs to act like it

Your GP collects your recordsincluding your vaccination history. If the records are not useable, why would they even exist? They exist for a reason. When you die, your death is counted as a stat and a death certificate is done. Do you think in US they just say "he died" and drop him into a hole? No, they define the death. Im just saying when they do the definition and the cause is Covid, say whether they have been vaccinated or not. Its a pretty small step

We are willing to follow up where each covid case farted but not there actual health status, what drugs they take, what vaccinations they do and dont have?

For someone who believes this is a hellacious disease, your ability to flip flop between the "who cares" to "lock everyone up" is pretty remarkable

My position is simple. Treat the vaccine as seriously as you treat the virus. Its a fairly basic position id hope
We have vaccines for worse things than the flu. Have you never travelled to Asia, Africa, or South America?

You've got yourself in a panic over nothing

Stop listening to Pete Evans
 
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