Prediction The 'Rookie Games Played' Game

[Betts are off]

Hey all,

Welcoming you all to the 'Rookie games played' game.

Premise is simple. Predict how many of the Crows 7 Rookie's would have played any AFL games by the following rounds.

Round 1
Round 6
Round 12
Round 18
End of H/A season.

Rules; Game is knockout format and last man (or woman) standing. I.e. If you get the number of rookies who have played correct by that round, you progress to the next checkpoint round. If incorrect, you are knocked out.

Cutoff. Let’s go with the Tuesday before week 1...

For fun you can predict the players, but that will not exclude you from progressing if incorrect.

Prize: All players still there in the end get a crisp high 5 and bragging rights... (Please note; Due to Covid19 restrictions, all crisp high 5's have been cancelled in 2021).

Good luck!

For me;

1: 0
6: 2 (Thilthorpe, Rowe)
12: 2 (As Above)
18: 3 (Thilthorpe, Rowe, Pedlar)
End of H/A: 3 (As above)

No 2021 games for Cook, Berry, Newchurch, Borlase

 

[Big Dub]

1: 1 (Rowe)
6: 2 (Rowe, Thilthorpe)
12: 3 (Rowe, Thilthorpe, Berry)
18: 4 (Rowe, Thilthorpe, Berry, Pedlar)
End: 4 (Rowe, Thilthorpe, Berry, Pedlar)

Barring injury, I think Rowe is a lock for the Stengle sized hole as small forward to start the season. Walker will start the year, but Thilthorpe should be given a couple of games early shortly after.

We don't have many untried mids that won't be in the round 1 side, so any run of injuries (which we should get by mid-season) will give Pedlar or Berry a debut. I've gone Berry over Pedlar due to the latter's reduced pre-season (groins), but would otherwise have the Pedlar in before Berry. Cook is a sneaky chance for a game late after a reduced pre-season (shoulder), but someone selected above (or Cook) will have a set-back that costs them their chance, so Cook's non-selection is my insurance.

If Gollant or O'Connor get a game (no visibility on how they are going), it might delay Berry or Pedlar. Worrell should get a run at some point in the first half of the season, but don't think this affects the new recruits.

 

[hey shorty]

R1 - 1 player, either Berry or Rowe.

R6 - 3, Rowe, Berry and Thilthorpe

R14 - 3 + Pedlar

R18 - 4 + Borlase

R23 - 5 + Cook

I actually think all of our draftees are a chance to play + Worrall from last season.

 

[hey shorty]

And yeah Gollant and O'Connor are possibilities. Reality is we played nearly everyone on our list this year, can't see any reason why that won't happen again.

 

[jackster83]

And yeah Gollant and O'Connor are possibilities. Reality is we played nearly everyone on our list this year, can't see any reason why that won't happen again.

Pretty sure we only did that because our draftees couldn't play SANFL, and the scratch matches were a complete waste of time.

Sholl, McHenry, Butts and Schoenberg would have spent the whole year in the two's under normal circumstances. McAdam, McPherson, McAsey and Hamill would have probably still got games.

Rowe is the only one who will get games early IMO. Thilthorpe will have to wait for Walker to miss with "injury" before he gets a chance.

 

[hey shorty]

Pretty sure we only did that because our draftees couldn't play SANFL, and the scratch matches were a complete waste of time.

Sholl, McHenry, Butts and Schoenberg would have spent the whole year in the two's under normal circumstances. McAdam, McPherson, McAsey and Hamill would have probably still got games.

Rowe is the only one who will get games early IMO. Thilthorpe will have to wait for Walker to miss with "injury" before he gets a chance.

That might be true, but I also think Nicks wanted to have a look at these kids. We'll reward them for strong SANFL form, particularly if the fixture starts to get condensed again

A totally new coaching group with clear focus on youth development, and a new head of development is exciting.

 

[Betts are off]

1: 1 (Rowe)
6: 2 (Rowe, Thilthorpe)
12: 3 (Rowe, Thilthorpe, Berry)
18: 4 (Rowe, Thilthorpe, Berry, Pedlar)
End: 4 (Rowe, Thilthorpe, Berry, Pedlar)

Barring injury, I think Rowe is a lock for the Stengle sized hole as small forward to start the season. Walker will start the year, but Thilthorpe should be given a couple of games early shortly after.

We don't have many untried mids that won't be in the round 1 side, so any run of injuries (which we should get by mid-season) will give Pedlar or Berry a debut. I've gone Berry over Pedlar due to the latter's reduced pre-season (groins), but would otherwise have the Pedlar in before Berry. Cook is a sneaky chance for a game late after a reduced pre-season (shoulder), but someone selected above (or Cook) will have a set-back that costs them their chance, so Cook's non-selection is my insurance.

If Gollant or O'Connor get a game (no visibility on how they are going), it might delay Berry or Pedlar. Worrell should get a run at some point in the first half of the season, but don't think this affects the new recruits.

Nice list, I have to admit, I ummed and ahh'd about Rowe in the round 1 team. If anyone was gonna get it I think it would be him. I just think round 1 they will try and squeeze in too many high former draftees that haven't yet cemented their spot (Jones, McHenry, Fog). Think Rowe comes in round 2-4, but yeah there's a scarily good chance that i'm out of this comp on the Thursday before round 1 on that call!

Berry could be the surprise packet. For now i'm holding true that I think he's still a year off. But I may just have some ghosts of selection panels past clouding my judgement here!

 

[Betts are off]

R1 - 1 player, either Berry or Rowe.

R6 - 3, Rowe, Berry and Thilthorpe

R14 - 3 + Pedlar

R18 - 4 + Borlase

R23 - 5 + Cook

I actually think all of our draftees are a chance to play + Worrall from last season.

Wow, Borlase by round 18 is a big call. I like it though!

 

[Betts are off]

Pretty sure we only did that because our draftees couldn't play SANFL, and the scratch matches were a complete waste of time.

Sholl, McHenry, Butts and Schoenberg would have spent the whole year in the two's under normal circumstances. McAdam, McPherson, McAsey and Hamill would have probably still got games.

Rowe is the only one who will get games early IMO. Thilthorpe will have to wait for Walker to miss with "injury" before he gets a chance.

I tend to agree with the early games prediction here. I think Rowe plays consistently (pending he performs), and we bring Riley in around round 5 and let him play for a 3-5 game block, but other then those 2 I see us blooding the year 2 players like Worrell, O'Conner and Gollant at the start of the year. As well as giving selection priority to guys like McHenry and Jones.

The last month will be the wildcard. If we are only a 1-4 win team with 4 games to go, then it will likely ramp up the rookie selections.

 

[hey shorty]

Wow, Borlase by round 18 is a big call. I like it though!

There's generally always 1 kid who comes from a fair way back and plays a game or 2 or impresses in the SANFL.

I reckon that'll be James.

 

[Betts are off]

There's generally always 1 kid who comes from a fair way back and plays a game or 2 or impresses in the SANFL.

I reckon that'll be James.

You could be right, with his build and prowess in the air he may start out his career as the Tom Doedee backup. Although you would think that Jake Kelly would go into round 1 with that spot based on experience alone. Or Worrell, who played a lot of KPD last year in the scratchies right?

By round 18, there's every chance he could supplant Bull and slot into the primary backup for the 3rd tall role. Especially considering its his natural position

 

[Golumless]

Nice list, I have to admit, I ummed and ahh'd about Rowe in the round 1 team. If anyone was gonna get it I think it would be him. I just think round 1 they will try and squeeze in too many high former draftees that haven't yet cemented their spot (Jones, McHenry, Fog). Think Rowe comes in round 2-4, but yeah there's a scarily good chance that i'm out of this comp on the Thursday before round 1 on that call!

Berry could be the surprise packet. For now i'm holding true that I think he's still a year off. But I may just have some ghosts of selection panels past clouding my judgement here!

The only thing that stops Rowe is if Stengle comes back a reformed man and keeps pace with James in preseason. Otherwise, James Rowe will be playing round 1.

Specialist role and all that jazz.

 

[Dangarman]

I guess by 7 rookies you mean the 7 ND/RD additions to the list.
Thilthorpe
Pedlar
Cook
Berry
Rowe
Borlase
Newchurch

I suggest we include Worrell, O'Connor and Gollant as well.

 

[hey shorty]

The only thing that stops Rowe is if Stengle comes back a reformed man and keeps pace with James in preseason. Otherwise, James Rowe will be playing round 1.

Specialist role and all that jazz.

Isn't Tyson suspended due to the drug strike ??

 

[Golumless]

Isn't Tyson suspended due to the drug strike ??

Yup, AFL imposed sanction. Alright, lock Rowe into our best 22.

 

[Betts are off]

I guess by 7 rookies you mean the 7 ND/RD additions to the list.
Thilthorpe
Pedlar
Cook
Berry
Rowe
Borlase
Newchurch

I suggest we include Worrell, O'Connor and Gollant as well.

I did consider those 2nd year players, but decided against it. Starts to murky the waters a bit too much

 

[Dangarman]

OK, let's look at what each player has to do to crack the 22:

TT - IMO nothing. A marquee signing will play R1 if fit. The Walker issue muddies the water here.
Rowe - Obvious Stengle replacement, will play R1.
Pedlar - No experience in a senior side, will have to impress in the SANFL to push ahead of McAdam, McHenry and Murphy.
Cook - Same as Pedlar
Berry - Has played some senior footy, but the midfield will be hard to get into with Hately coming in
Borlase - As a KPD, will take time to develop and is behind a fair queue.
Newchurch - Needs SANFL experience, being a smallish forward might get a chance if Stengle is written off and Rowe injured or needing a break.

So I'm calling
2 in R1,
2 by R6,
3 by R12 (one of them getting called up due to injuries)
3 by R18 and
4 by end of season (someone to get a 'taster' in later rounds)

 

[Bearded Clam]

OK, let's look at what each player has to do to crack the 22:

TT - IMO nothing. A marquee signing will play R1 if fit. The Walker issue muddies the water here.
Rowe - Obvious Stengle replacement, will play R1.
Pedlar - No experience in a senior side, will have to impress in the SANFL to push ahead of McAdam, McHenry and Murphy.
Cook - Same as Pedlar
Berry - Has played some senior footy, but the midfield will be hard to get into with Hately coming in
Borlase - As a KPD, will take time to develop and is behind a fair queue.
Newchurch - Needs SANFL experience, being a smallish forward might get a chance if Stengle is written off and Rowe injured or needing a break.

So I'm calling
2 in R1,
2 by R6,
3 by R12 (one of them getting called up due to injuries)
3 by R18 and
4 by end of season (someone to get a 'taster' in later rounds)

Yeah, im happy with the call that Rowe will be the stengle replacement whilst he’s suspended..

Also happy to see Rowe stay in the side when/if stengle comes back in and takes Murphys spot.. I love murph, love the story of how he came into the league, give his all.. but, he’s just not good enough to make it much further than he has.. his game is just far too inconsistent and he doesnt apply enough scoreboard pressure and he always seems to be out of position.

Would love to see Newchurch given a run as a small forward in the AFL side if he shows some promise in the SANFL but I dont think we’ll see him till 2022 if I was to put my house on it..

 

[Golumless]

OK, let's look at what each player has to do to crack the 22:

TT - IMO nothing. A marquee signing will play R1 if fit. The Walker issue muddies the water here.
Rowe - Obvious Stengle replacement, will play R1.
Pedlar - No experience in a senior side, will have to impress in the SANFL to push ahead of McAdam, McHenry and Murphy.
Cook - Same as Pedlar
Berry - Has played some senior footy, but the midfield will be hard to get into with Hately coming in
Borlase - As a KPD, will take time to develop and is behind a fair queue.
Newchurch - Needs SANFL experience, being a smallish forward might get a chance if Stengle is written off and Rowe injured or needing a break.

So I'm calling
2 in R1,
2 by R6,
3 by R12 (one of them getting called up due to injuries)
3 by R18 and
4 by end of season (someone to get a 'taster' in later rounds)

I'd argue Berry is a very good shot of being a round 1 debut (less so for Pedlar due to recent injury concerns). Our inside midfield is absolute garbage at the moment (and certainly not hard to get into). Perfectly set up for kids like them to find a spot if they tear up the pre-season.

 

[Betts are off]

I'd argue Berry is a very good shot of being a round 1 debut (less so for Pedlar due to recent injury concerns). Our inside midfield is absolute garbage at the moment (and certainly not hard to get into). Perfectly set up for kids like them to find a spot if they tear up the pre-season.

I'd put Berry by round 1 as an inside mid as a sub 2% possibility. Nothing against the kid, but I just think Hately would have the inside track and a 50m headstart on him!

 

[Golumless]

I'd put Berry by round 1 as an inside mid as a sub 2% possibility. Nothing against the kid, but I just think Hately would have the inside track and a 50m headstart on him!

Certainly more than one spot open. Rory Sloane shouldn't get much if any midfield time this year, Ben Keays time in the mids has diminished over the year. Half forward/midfield has been a graveyard as well.

We do come into this season with one of the worst inside midfields in modern history and one that got both weaker and a new line coach. Ripe opportunity for Pedlar and Berry (who I think will have the inside track early) to force their way in with an excellent preseason.

Low probability (I'd be around 10-20% personally), but not worth writing off.

 

[WeeBlake]

R1 - 2 (Rowe, Thilthorpe)
R6 - 2 (as above)
R12 - 2 (as above)
R18 - 3 (as above plus Pedlar)
End - 3 (as above)

I hope someone else pushes for senior selection, but I doubt it will happen.

 

[Betts are off]

Certainly more than one spot open. Rory Sloane shouldn't get much if any midfield time this year, Ben Keays time in the mids has diminished over the year. Half forward/midfield has been a graveyard as well.

We do come into this season with one of the worst inside midfields in modern history and one that got both weaker and a new line coach. Ripe opportunity for Pedlar and Berry (who I think will have the inside track early) to force their way in with an excellent preseason.

Low probability (I'd be around 10-20% personally), but not worth writing off.

Nah, 1-2% for me at best. And that's only if we suffer a couple of key injuries in the preseason. 2nd round rookies don't walk into AFL midfields in round 1. It just won't happen!

 

[Vhaluus]

We had a historically bad year last year, if we aren't playing at least 3 rookies r1 next year it just shows the club hasn't learned anything.

But down to what I think WILL happen:

R1: 1
R6: 1
R12 - 2
R18 - 2
End - 3

 

[chipins]

Rd 1 - 0
Rd 6 - 1 (Thilthorpe)
Rd 12 - 3 (Thilthorpe Cook Rowe)
Rd 18 - 4 (Thilthorpe Cook Rowe Pedlar)
End H/A - 4 same as above