Prediction Blokes in the gun in 2021

[Devington]

So did Macmillan. He was delisted and a better player.

The "9 years" is simply an indictment on our last decade and poor standards, not a reflection of ability or output.

JMac had barely missed a game for 7 or 8 years and that didn't save him. Our football department has shown a willingness to be ruthless after the 2020 season and I don't think that will be a one-off. Mature age players that aren't materially better than a 19 to 21-year-old alternative will come under significant pressure. Atley is definitely one in that bracket.

A lot will depend on how aggressively they want to turn the list over this year after such a big churn last year. My opinion is that it will still be a fair bit more than the 3 player minimum.

Atley, Tyson, Hall, Turner, Garner, and Will Walker probably the group under the most pressure as there are now plenty of numbers for that utility mid/flanker grouping. Personally, I hope Will Walker gets a good run with his body and smashes it this year as I think he has some real upside.

I tend to agree with Snake's view on a guy like Campbell. He fills a very specific role for us, and unless Xerri improves over 2021 to the point he could be a genuine replacement for Goldy, or we bring in another mature ruckman, he probably gets another 12 months.

Josh Walker seems to be evolving into a similar position. He may not be a first-choice key position player but is high-quality cover for a number of roles back and forward. If he could be a genuine option to pinch-hit in the ruck he increases his value further.

Jmac was publicly challenged by the coach during the preseason and then eventually dropped. There has been zero word about Atley being challenged, and he has never been dropped. They're both defenders that hit a plateau early in their careers and never really came on, but as of right now their situations are different.

 

[marklovesbeer]

It's not a nice topic, but ultimately 3 players must make way every year.

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- Garner, Hall & Tyson must get on the park and play consistent seniors.
- I think Hayden and Bonar are fighting for a list spot. I can't see them both making the cut.
- J. Walker will be performance based. I expect he will do enough again.
- It doesn't look good for Will Walker if he can't get a sustained run.
- Menadue is a coin toss.
- Big TC might keep a rookie spot.
- I won't be surprised if Dumont ends up in trade talks.

No idea how much truth there is to it, or if it’s been mentioned anywhere before, but I heard from a mate the other day that he was ‘very close’ to going to * at the end of 2020.

 

[Snake_Baker]

No idea how much truth there is to it, or if it’s been mentioned anywhere before, but I heard from a mate the other day that he was ‘very close’ to going to * at the end of 2020.

I heard there was fishing elsewhere, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Waussie]

No idea how much truth there is to it, or if it’s been mentioned anywhere before, but I heard from a mate the other day that he was ‘very close’ to going to * at the end of 2020.

Adelaide is the rumour

 

[Tas]

BTW I'm sure Ats is a top fella, always fit and professional, great clubman etc.

I simply don't think I've watched a dumber footballer in our colours since Sam Powers and previously Shane Claytons.

He is infuriating to watch.

He looked pretty good up forward, I was sad we pushed him back under Shaw.

 

[KiwiRoo]

I don't think it mate.

I know it.

Macmillan was a better player than Atley.

In what way Choppy ?. Im not anti MacMillan but Atley was a better defender IMO. Didn't get beaten too often. Not sure you could say the same about MacMillan

I agree that Atley will want a good year though. I think the clubs made it pretty clear what its expectations are of its senior players. I think he's got the ability, but he's only been an average player, and if he has another average year he'd be nervous

 

[ChoppyGun]

McMillan was dropped last year

He had injury issues.

If you think Atley a better player than Macmillan (both C graders at best) we are watching different footy mate.

 

[ChoppyGun]

He looked pretty good up forward, I was sad we pushed him back under Shaw.

Better as he can grab and kick without thinking. He has zero footy brain.

In traffic he is worse than a Pakistani taxi driver.

(I like Pakistan people......driving not so much)

 

[The Anvil]

If you use AFL Compare of Atley vs the Heir Apparents of Hayden and Perez you’ll find he is superior to both in every category (albeit including turnovers).

It’s fine to bag Atley but he is our best player in the position he plays in right now and other players should need to prove they are better before getting his spot


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[KiwiRoo]

If you use AFL Compare of Atley vs the Heir Apparents of Hayden and Perez you’ll find he is superior to both in every category (albeit including turnovers).

It’s fine to bag Atley but he is our best player in the position he plays in right now and other players should need to prove they are better before getting his spot


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I don't disagree with this but you could argue the same about Williams and Pittard at the start of last year and they're now gone.
It will depend on how much senior depth the club want to keep or how much game time they want to get into the younger players. But you'd think after what happened to the above ( and MacMillan) he'd be nervous

 

[ChoppyGun]

Jmac was publicly challenged by the coach during the preseason and then eventually dropped. There has been zero word about Atley being challenged, and he has never been dropped. They're both defenders that hit a plateau early in their careers and never really came on, but as of right now their situations are different.

Please.

Reverse JMac and Atley contract and we have JMac this year and Atley gone.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Adelaide is the rumour

More than a rumor according to my mail.

 

[The Anvil]

I don't disagree with this but you could argue the same about Williams and Pittard at the start of last year and they're now gone.
It will depend on how much senior depth the club want to keep or how much game time they want to get into the younger players. But you'd think after what happened to the above ( and MacMillan) he'd be nervous

If there’s a line where we have a lot of experience it’s the backs with LMac, Corr, Tarrant, and potentially Ziebell. Outside of his first season down back I liked Atley as a half forward and would like to see experience added to the front half.

Williams didn’t have multiple strings to his bow and Pittard started well but dipped badly as a forward.

But yeah, he should be nervous to an extent but unlike those two he’s a desired asset by other teams.


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[RossHenshaw]

If you use AFL Compare of Atley vs the Heir Apparents of Hayden and Perez you’ll find he is superior to both in every category (albeit including turnovers).

It’s fine to bag Atley but he is our best player in the position he plays in right now and other players should need to prove they are better before getting his spot


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[Ligma]

If you use AFL Compare of Atley vs the Heir Apparents of Hayden and Perez you’ll find he is superior to both in every category (albeit including turnovers).

It’s fine to bag Atley but he is our best player in the position he plays in right now and other players should need to prove they are better before getting his spot


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If Kyron and Perez are given more games, I could probably tell you now that they will both end up being way better than atley.


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[Devington]

If Kyron and Perez are given more games, I could probably tell you now that they will both end up being way better than atley.


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We thought Atley was going to be an elite gamebreaker as well at one stage.

 

[The Anvil]

If Kyron and Perez are given more games, I could probably tell you now that they will both end up being way better than atley.


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This might very well be the case, and I hope they do as it would only signal improvement in our team.

What I do expect is the best 22 fit players take the field, right now that isn't Hayden and Perez. At some point it likely will be.

 

[Ligma]

We thought Atley was going to be an elite gamebreaker as well at one stage.

Whilst what you said is true, in my opinion I can’t seem why they couldn’t be better than him. Especially Perez, his performances in all his 3 games has been very good.


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[Ligma]

This might very well be the case, and I hope they do as it would only signal improvement in our team.

What I do expect is the best 22 fit players take the field, right now that isn't Hayden and Perez. At some point it likely will be.

100% it also depends on how the season is going, we hope to see a few games out of both.


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[Snake_Baker]

We thought Atley was going to be an elite gamebreaker as well at one stage.

This is the reason that folks bash him now.

They think he should be dropped/delisted simply because of their irrational unresolved expectations.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Whilst what you said is true, in my opinion I can’t seem why they couldn’t be better than him. Especially Perez, his performances in all his 3 games has been very good.

Tom Campbell could be better than Ben Cunnington if you're going to apply that logic.

 

[Snake_Baker]

This might very well be the case, and I hope they do as it would only signal improvement in our team.

What I do expect is the best 22 fit players take the field, right now that isn't Hayden and Perez. At some point it likely will be.

Shaun Atley and Flynn Perez AFL Stats Comparison

Shaun Atley and Flynn Perez AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Shaun Atley and Kyron Hayden AFL Stats Comparison

Shaun Atley and Kyron Hayden AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[Devington]

Whilst what you said is true, in my opinion I can’t seem why they couldn’t be better than him. Especially Perez, his performances in all his 3 games has been very good.


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Absolutely they could be better than him. But right now they aren't. Their trajectories could stall, they could get injured, anything could happen. Hell, Atley might find new life now that he isn't the only bloke with wheels, or maybe a coach (or losing his best mate in Jmac) does to him what Shaw reportedly did for Silver.

I think a lot of people are putting the cart before the horse, assuming (and it's not an awful assumption) that others will eventually overtake Atley and therefore (and this is where the awful part does kick in) he has no value to us either now or in the future.

I wouldn't be at all surprised this year if some potential replacements begin churning out a few games above Atley's standard this year. But it hasn't happened yet, and even if it does I still think Atley's sheer durability and consistency makes him very valuable.

 

[Tas]

Better as he can grab and kick without thinking. He has zero footy brain.

In traffic he is worse than a Pakistani taxi driver.

(I like Pakistan people......driving not so much)

Atley is pretty good in terms of straight line speed, but he doesn't have the agility for lateral movement, or it is not instinctive. Players like Wells and Harvey weren't as quick in a straight line but they could turn at speed, it made it very hard for them to be tackled and they could weave through traffic. Atley can't. When he played his best footy as a defender, we utilised his straight line speed to rebound aggressively out of the back line but the opposition countered him over those aggressive years by making sure someone was in front on him so he would get the ball see someone in front of him and stop, because he couldn't get around even much slower players than him.

Clubs could put someone in front of him during a press, the half back region was particularly congested. When he was moved up forward towards the end of Brad's reign, he found a lot more room in the forward line to take those few steps and go.

In 2017 he kicked 11.11 and had 18 goal assists. In 2018 he kicked 16.14 and 14 goal assists. 18 goal assists is top end for a forward, with continued work and development I think he could have got to 20-25 goal half-forward with many assists and I was happy with his progress in 2017 and 2018. Moving him down back was bad for his career.

 

[Wonderdog]

I recall when JMac was in the draft his junI or coach said something like he is not elite in any one category but not not poor in any one category either. I thought it was an odd comment at that time given that junior caches tend to pump up their players in the hope of getting them drafted.

That is one of the key differences betweem JMac & Ats. Ats has an elite quality: his straight line speed. The problem with Ats is that he has not has a breakout year. Most players have incremental improvements over their first 5 years, Ats has not. Cunners was gifted games early but got better each year so have Jy, LDU et al.

The Ats we see now is the Ats we saw after 20 games except opposition caches have worked out how to negate his strength.