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gutsroy
Brownlow Medallist
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Strategy Official 2021 Planning Thread
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- Sep 9, 2016
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The last 6 weeks probably ruined his chances of getting that mid/fwd spot
Had him locked in as well. Doesn’t matter I reckon he’s going to be a monster this year and go 95+. We know his durability now too which is a big tick over Rowell, but that probably is the only thing he has in his favour
rowell and Anderson will be bont and Macrae and I’m adding trac and Oliver into that category of scorers the next 5 years. Bit like the old swan/Pendles combo another of my favourites
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- Dec 7, 2019
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Anderson's other advantage over Rowell is his size, I suspect they are going to be a hell of a combination in future. He probably benefited with Rowell being out, it'll be interesting to see how much midfield time he gets this year and I doubt the Suns will want to burn him out. Dew seems to be fairly conservative with the young blokes (which is good long term imo) so I think they will rotate a bit this year.The last 6 weeks probably ruined his chances of getting that mid/fwd spot
Had him locked in as well. Doesn’t matter I reckon he’s going to be a monster this year and go 95+. We know his durability now too which is a big tick over Rowell, but that probably is the only thing he has in his favour
rowell and Anderson will be bont and Macrae and I’m adding trac and Oliver into that category of scorers the next 5 years. Bit like the old swan/Pendles combo another of my old favourites
As an aside I wouldn't knock Rowell too much for durability, he got one bad injury, and from all reports could have played late in the season, but they held him back.
- Sep 9, 2016
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Not knocking his durability
But one played every game last year and one didn’t
Bypass junior form cause that doesn’t matter at AFL level
Rowells body is a legitimate question mark now that shoulder has been hurt.
I for one hope it doesn’t hinder him though as I think he’ll be lachie Neale mk2 in time
- Aug 22, 2009
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Good to be back. Just started getting into it this week.
I’m going to go all in on overanalysis this preseason.
I’ve just translated all 2020 scores to what they would have (roughly) been with the scoring distribution curve of a season with 20 minute quarters.
I reckon gawn is truly valued at around $705k and Neale around $680k.
I’m going to go all in on overanalysis this preseason.
I’ve just translated all 2020 scores to what they would have (roughly) been with the scoring distribution curve of a season with 20 minute quarters.
I reckon gawn is truly valued at around $705k and Neale around $680k.
Good work. They are smelly picks thats for sure.
Just for your guide, based on this board i've got Rowell valued just over 800K and Impey at 500K.
- Aug 22, 2009
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Funny you mention that, I got error messages for those two and I couldn't work out why...
- Jun 19, 2016
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And Lloyd?
- Aug 22, 2009
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Another tool I'm relying strongly on is my patented Injury-adjusted Average Forecast:
You make an (informed) guess of a player's average and how many games they are likely to play. If you guess 100 and 19/22 games, then you replace 3 games with the 70 you would get from their replacement. So that player would average 95.9.
You make an (informed) guess of a player's average and how many games they are likely to play. If you guess 100 and 19/22 games, then you replace 3 games with the 70 you would get from their replacement. So that player would average 95.9.
Man I hope you guys can keep this current crop together. Could be big things on 4 years for the sun's.
Think you're biggest threat is your own coach.
Keep Dewy away from them at feeding time mate.
- Aug 22, 2009
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This is what i got for all players. e.g if Lloyd got 122 then he might be $30k over-priced.
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A Bit Dusty
2017🏆2019🏆2020🏆
- Oct 6, 2017
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Who cares really what price he is he's the best supercoach defender by a far bit. You won't care how much he was after Round 1 when you see 120 next to his name after the match.
- Aug 22, 2009
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He is one of my few locks currently.
It's just info to help make a decision. I enjoy playing around with sc on excel, im not sure how much it will end up helping though.
- Jun 19, 2016
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I don’t think anyone is doubting that but what if whilst he’s going 120 Neale and Gawn are knocking out 1 fiddys with the C and VC on. Unless you’re structuring to start all 3 of course then well played.
- Jul 21, 2008
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I just brought Lloyd in to complete the holy trident. It did unfortunately involve dropping Simpkin but i still have decent enough mids. Now i have
Neale/Gawn/Lloyd & Preuss at R3. If anyone says they cant get those 3 to fit in their team, just tell em that not only do i have all 3 i have an extra 200k sitting on my ruck bench potentially doing * all
Oh, and i have DGB, Phillips, L.Young & Cox so its not like i skimped on rookies either!
Neale/Gawn/Lloyd & Preuss at R3. If anyone says they cant get those 3 to fit in their team, just tell em that not only do i have all 3 i have an extra 200k sitting on my ruck bench potentially doing * all
Oh, and i have DGB, Phillips, L.Young & Cox so its not like i skimped on rookies either!
- Jul 21, 2008
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Just looking at my team i think ive found a good balance.
Milera D4
Hately M5
Preuss R3
Impey F6
5 rookies on the field (3 mids, 2 backs) Lloyd, Laird, Gawn, Grundy, Neale, Marshall all in my team. Id like to upgrade Milera but i dont have the cash, unless i downgrade Preuss, but thats not happening.
EDIT: If i have a weakness its probably my M2 or F2. I can upgrade my F2 if i dump my highend rookies for cheaper ones but im not particularly enthused by the premium forwards on offer. Also, like ive said, i think ive found a well balanced team without having the extra 200k that downgrading preuss would give me. Today I honestly had a good look at my options if i was to ddowngrade him but now that ive fit Lloyd in, i dont think i need his 200k. Yes it could get me a gun D4 instead of Milera but with Whitfield and Stewart out, im not liking too many options there. Then, i could upgrade Hately to someone like Cripps but again, i dont think the benefit will be worth enough. Otherwise i could upgrade my F2 and F3 but again there arent too many options that im fond of. So yeah, Preuss at R3 is full steam ahead
Milera D4
Hately M5
Preuss R3
Impey F6
5 rookies on the field (3 mids, 2 backs) Lloyd, Laird, Gawn, Grundy, Neale, Marshall all in my team. Id like to upgrade Milera but i dont have the cash, unless i downgrade Preuss, but thats not happening.
EDIT: If i have a weakness its probably my M2 or F2. I can upgrade my F2 if i dump my highend rookies for cheaper ones but im not particularly enthused by the premium forwards on offer. Also, like ive said, i think ive found a well balanced team without having the extra 200k that downgrading preuss would give me. Today I honestly had a good look at my options if i was to ddowngrade him but now that ive fit Lloyd in, i dont think i need his 200k. Yes it could get me a gun D4 instead of Milera but with Whitfield and Stewart out, im not liking too many options there. Then, i could upgrade Hately to someone like Cripps but again, i dont think the benefit will be worth enough. Otherwise i could upgrade my F2 and F3 but again there arent too many options that im fond of. So yeah, Preuss at R3 is full steam ahead
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- Jul 21, 2008
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- North Melbourne
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I think im really happy with my team now. Plenty of mid-pricers in my forwardline but that appears pretty normal. Backline is good but a little injury prone, im not set on Williams but i have L.Young sitting on my mid bench so if i need extra cover i can always use a trade and swing him back. Midfield is somewhat risky too but risky in the sense that if my picks don't increase their respective averages ill be left with a less than impressive midfield, points distribution wise. The picks ive made definitely pass the eye test though and i just think that is where the midfield value is this season, aswell as maybe at the cheaper end (300-350k).
JuddgementDay
Brownlow Medallist
Can you please analyse Dusty?
- Aug 22, 2009
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im not sure if you’re being serious. If you are, just find where his average for last year is on the chart and that gives you the answers.
JuddgementDay
Brownlow Medallist
I am serious.
He's one of my few players that I'm 50/50 on
Dusty, Docherty & McDonald for their prices
- Aug 22, 2009
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it’s not an individual player analysis thing. It looks at the scoring distribution last year compared to the average for 2018/19 and then tries to guess what players might have scored if it was a 20 minute quarter season.
if a player averaged 100 last year they might have averaged 98 normally. Or 95 is 94. Or 90 is 90. So it’s all pretty insignificant except when prices are really high, and even then it’s just a somewhat informed guess.
If I was flipping coins on players I’d always go for the most durable.
WaynesWorld19
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All of the time or just a little? I like the sound of Stephenson playing as a midfielder from a SC perspective, but North have so few forwards as it is. Need to find and listen to that whole interview for context.
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