A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

[RedV3x]

anecdotally...some parents are first asking [before enrolling their kids] prospective private schools 'Do you have AFL' .

I see that as people choosing their optimum pathway.
Previously these people would have played another sport - probably not the most suitable sport for them.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I will jump in here and support BBT regarding the white anting of female footy in Southern NSW on the Vic border.
The AFL House and AFL Victoria are very well aware of what is happening but choose to ignore the situation.
Currently there are several Clubs in the Riverina who have very longstanding deals/arrangements/attachments with Netball Clubs and do not wish to change those arrangements for Financial/Community reasons. This has resulted in slow/delayed/nil growth of Female Footy for several years but in last 2 years the inevitable growth is now occurring in our female game.
I have strong views on this why would you assist the enemy in Netball to grow a Female sport. Yeah I know some people will say but they are playing a sport in Netball - I say balderdash- Our game should come first always.
Long term it will not matter because Netball Australia recently said they are worried about trending lower participation in recent years. Our female game will keep growing despite the difficult market down there.

I would say it’s because on average those netballers already follow football ten times more then the average female does. These women are already football people, playing netball over footy doesn’t change much at all.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I have never seen any realistic Business Case where a Canberra AFL club would be able to generate sufficient revenues to be competitive (at least $40m+ pa, in today's $; & assuming Manuka- upgraded to at least 25k- would be a peppercorn rental, with full food, beverage, & advertising rights going completely to the Canberra club; & most of the ticketing revenue).

How would the minimum $40m+ pa revenues be achieved?
(With due respect for the valid appeal of Canberra as city, it has nowhere near the magnificent beauty of Tas.'s forests/rivers/mountains/beaches/bays & other natural attractions; nor the captivating charm of Tas.'s historic buildings, ambience, & gourmet delights.
(ie Canberra would not get the approx. 100k pa winter footy tourists from Victoria etc., staying 3-7 days).

There haven't been any public business cases for Canberra that I'm aware of unfortunately.

Compared to Tasmania, there would be less government funding (if current funding continues to new teams). I believe the Tassie govt gives $8m compared to the ACT govt's $2.3m. You'd want the long-term business case to not rely too heavily on government funding though.

The current stadium is definitely the big hurdle. Ideally, we'd get on board with the new stadium set to house the rugbies (and a commitment from the AFL would help us get that). Manuka could probably get up to 20-25k, but I don't think it could be expanded any further than that. And it's less convenient to get to.

Economically, the ACT is healthier than Tasmania. Its Gross State Product is about 33% higher than Tasmania. This excludes another close to 100k people in Greater Canberra on the other side of the border, which would make it closer to 50% higher. And all of that in the one metro area.

I agree Tasmania is a more attractive destination for longer term tourists, but Canberra actually receives more visitors. Tasmania had 1.1m interstate visitors in 2018 while Canberra had 2.9m interstaters stay at least one night. Tasmania would receive more money from tourism with more nights per person, but Canberra is easier to get to for a quick trip.

I'd definitely love a business case to be undertaken. I think we'd compare similarly to Tasmania. Better general stats, but balanced with less Aussie Rules fanaticism than Tasmania.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1.

There haven't been any public business cases for Canberra that I'm aware of unfortunately.

I agree, re any Canberra, detailed public Business Cases since 2000. Perhaps this indicates the insurmountable financial difficulties.

Do you accept, therefore, no sustainable Business Case could realistically be made now (for entry before c. 2033)?

GWS has a 10 year deal with the ACT govt. to host matches at Manuka until 2022- assume there will be a 10 year extension to 2032.

For a bit of fun, would you care to provide a very rough "back-of-the-envelope" estimate of how you think a stand alone Canberra Club (if it were to enter the AFL after Tasmania, which will probably enter c. 2025) could generate at least the minimum $40m+ pa revenues, in todays $.
($40m in 2021$ will probably equate to c. $50m+ pa in 2033 $)

Compared to Tasmania, there would be less government funding...

A Canberra team's fatal flaw?

Due to these severe financial problems for Canberra, the most likely probability is that the AFL will one day (between 2030-2040) prefer a combined Club representing SW Sydney, ACT, Wollongong Illawarra, part of sthn. NSW (GWS will always have a recruitment Zone in the latter), & south coast- pop. c.1.5m in 2050.
(With impecunious Melb. clubs selling about 5 home games minimum pa, to be played in Canberra & Wollongong).

Assume Campbelltown (or other part of SW Sydney) has 7 home games, Canberra 6, Wollongong 3.

Do you agree?

You'd want the long-term business case to not rely too heavily on government funding though.

Why?
Canberra is recession-proof, the public teat will never be diminished.
When average house prices were dropping heavily (in the more high-end suburbs) in Sydney & Melb. from late 2017- May 2019, Canberra was still slightly rising!

Ideally, we'd get on board with the new stadium set to house the rugbies (and a commitment from the AFL would help us get that). Manuka could probably get up to 20-25k

Agreed.

An oval stadium (can also host BBL & other elite cricket) with a roof, for Canberra's cold winters, & retractable seating (to go to a rectangle) to accomodate RL, RU, & soccer matches, concerts etc. is the obvious solution for Canberra. A win for all sports, & the taxpayer.

Has there been any united front from all 5 sports for such a proposal in recent years? If not, why not?

Canberra doesn't need two large stadia, each of 25K+ (actually, given ACT- & surrounds- projections to be c. 600k+ by 2050, probably should be at least one 35K+, fully seated, for all the cashed-up, plenty of free time, well paid public servants).

Tasmania had 1.1m interstate visitors in 2018 while Canberra had 2.9m interstaters stay at least one night. Tasmania would receive more money from tourism with more nights per person, but Canberra is easier to get to for a quick trip.

Do you know how many non-business tourists Canberra attracts pa, who stay for at least 3-7 nights (which Tas. will attract in footy tourists)?

How is Canberra easier to get to for a short trip for non-NSW fans (Sydney residents- not Campbelltown, or SW region- can drive to Canberra in c. 3.5 hours, outside of Sydney peak period)?
Flying to Tas. from Melb. is c.1 hour.






2. R. Masters, in the SMH on 2.3.21, states the NRL Rights' $ gap is widening, in the AFL's favour, re the post covid new Rights' deals; & that the NRL is still refusing (probably without precedent), in its recent 2020 Annual Report, to divulge its specific Rights' amounts. Indicates it took an "embarrassing" haircut.

Also, in the linked "The Front Office" RL podcast, Masters is critical over the NRL's decision to enter into an extension beyond 2022 (Foxtel was 8 years, 2020-2027)- since the NRL was in a very weak negotiating position in May 2020, a time of great covid & general economic uncertainties (NRL was broke, & Foxtel & Nine knew the NRL's weaknesses/desperation).

Footy Developments in NSW and Queensland

Can be done if they pick the right location. Not sure about the groundsman, but he can always be sacked and replaced by someone more pleasant.They already did that before the start of last season (sack the Australian Football hating former groundsman) - that's why the GABBA playing surface was...

www.bigfooty.com

(See my post#484)

The increased financial strength of the AFL from 2023-24, with a record $946m 2 year Rights' deal, will provide it with more confidence, & financial strength, to further promote AF in Sydney & NSW in the future.

 

[Canberra Pear]

1.
I agree, re any Canberra, detailed public Business Cases since 2000. Perhaps this indicates the insurmountable financial difficulties.

Do you accept, therefore, no sustainable Business Case could realistically be made now (for entry before c. 2033)?

GWS has a 10 year deal with the ACT govt. to host matches at Manuka until 2022- assume there will be a 10 year extension to 2032.

I agree that 2025 is an unrealistic entry date for Canberra. But I also think 2025 is a bit unrealistic for Tasmania, I think late 2020s is more likely for Tasmania. That would leave only a few years of odd teams before a potential Canberra entry. There were four years between Adelaide's and Fremantle's entry.

For a bit of fun, would you care to provide a very rough "back-of-the-envelope" estimate of how you think a stand alone Canberra Club (if it were to enter the AFL after Tasmania, which will probably enter c. 2025) could generate at least the minimum $40m+ pa revenues, in todays $.
($40m in 2021$ will probably equate to c. $50m+ pa in 2033 $)

Very good question! It was actually a lot of fun. I've done my best, but keep in mind I'm not a numbers guy.

Does that $40m include the $20m of redistribution from broadcast money? That broadcast deal would be greater with the extra game, so that should cover that (for context, GC got $27m in 2019).

The ACT govt currently contributes $2.3m per year. A large part of that is for the honour of being promoted on GWS' guernsey. They may possibly be willing to up it if they can guarantee a new team which would be a much greater promotion. A game fee for GWS is currently $400k, so if we play a game in Wagga and Albury we may also get another 800k, so that could be up to $3.5m-$4m in govt funding.

I can't find anything recent on the Raiders, but from what I can tell, the Brumbies get more than $4m in sponsorship. That's about 75% of what Freo gets. I would consider AFL a greater promotional opportunity than Super Rugby, so I would say a Canberra AFL team could get minimum $6m. North, Melbourne and WB averaged about $11m in 2019, so I'd say $10m in sponsorship is very doable.

I'd be keen to get Zambrero on board, they were founded here. Our government agencies use a lot of contractors so it might be a good opportunity for sponsors like Spotless (who used to sponsor the Giants homeground), Broadspectrum or Veolia. I also see more Audis here than anywhere else, so a luxury car brand could go well here.

Gold Coast and GWS got more than $5m from membership/gate takings. I'd say that's a realistic number. We could probably charge more for memberships in Canberra, too.

Add another $1m or so for merch ($1m was the median in 2019, but we'd get an initial boost as everybody would new merch).

For extra distribution, Sydney is about mid of the table and received almost $4m in 2019, so we'll use that as a reference (the least of the northern teams).

$20m + $4m + $10m + $5m + $1m + $4m = $44m

An incredibly rough estimate, but seemingly doable!

A Canberra team's fatal flaw?

Due to these severe financial problems for Canberra, the most likely probability is that the AFL will one day (between 2030-2040) prefer a combined Club representing SW Sydney, ACT, Wollongong Illawarra, part of sthn. NSW (GWS will always have a recruitment Zone in the latter), & south coast- pop. c.1.5m in 2050.
(With impecunious Melb. clubs selling about 5 home games minimum pa, to be played in Canberra & Wollongong).

Assume Campbelltown (or other part of SW Sydney) has 7 home games, Canberra 6, Wollongong 3.

Do you agree?

I don't agree.

I believe currently sharing a team is holding AFL back in Canberra. GWS has definitely improved things, but they miss out in the media compared to the Brumbies, Raiders, and even the UC Caps and Canberra United.

For us to get further more support than we have with GWS, I think we'd need a Canberra-based team. We could share a few games with Sydney/Wollongong, but I think the bulk would have to be in Canberra.

I also don't think GWS would be able to share Sydney by the early 2030s. In your plan, Western Sydney would go from 8 games to 18 games. There's also no viable SWS or Wollongong stadium at the moment and the AFL would be reticent to build/upgrade three stadiums for one team.

Why?
Canberra is recession-proof, the public teat will never be diminished.
When average house prices were dropping heavily (in the more high-end suburbs) in Sydney & Melb. from late 2017- May 2019, Canberra was still slightly rising!

I think we would be safe with long-term funding, but governments change, so it's always safe good to have a plan if the well dries up.

Agreed.

An oval stadium (can also host BBL & other elite cricket) with a roof, for Canberra's cold winters, & retractable seating (to go to a rectangle) to accomodate RL, RU, & soccer matches, concerts etc. is the obvious solution for Canberra. A win for all sports, & the taxpayer.

Has there been any united front from all 5 sports for such a proposal in recent years? If not, why not?

Canberra doesn't need two large stadia, each of 25K+ (actually, given ACT- & surrounds- projections to be c. 600k+ by 2050, probably should be at least one 35K+, fully seated, for all the cashed-up, plenty of free time, well paid public servants).

None that I'm aware, but I know there's a constant bid for an A-League team, so there could be plenty of tenants (though three of them would prefer it to be rectangular).

Do you know how many non-business tourists Canberra attracts pa, who stay for at least 3-7 nights (which Tas. will attract in footy tourists)?

How is Canberra easier to get to for a short trip for non-NSW fans (Sydney residents- not Campbelltown region- can drive to Canberra in c. 3.5 hours, outside of Sydney peak period)?
Flying to Tas. from Melb. is c.1 hour.

Flight times to Hobart and Canberra are about the same from Adelaide and Melbourne, but driving is so much easier (no ferry necessary). Not everybody's going to drive obviously, but some people prefer having their cars and Canberra gives that option (it's about seven hours from Melbourne). Plus it's obviously closer to Queensland and Sydney teams.

 

[Established1870]

There haven't been any public business cases for Canberra that I'm aware of unfortunately.

Compared to Tasmania, there would be less government funding (if current funding continues to new teams). I believe the Tassie govt gives $8m compared to the ACT govt's $2.3m. You'd want the long-term business case to not rely too heavily on government funding though.

Government support wouldn't be strong like it would be for Tasmania but the private sector would surely make up for it. After Tassie, Canberra are the safest bet for the next AFL side and aside from the stadium issues I couldn't see anything that would be a major hurdle for them.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. "AFL NSW/ACT has a new project...a weekly podcast entitled "Play On"...fronted by Swan's R. O'Keefe & AFL journalist J. Gaynor...with players, [community] Ambassadors, volunteers, coaches, & administrators...providing the region with a greater insight into both community & elite football".

O'Keefe said he is excited about "...connecting with the community...the show will bring our community together & highlight the passion.... (words in brackets, & emphases, mine)".

https://aflnswact.com.au/afl-nsw-act-to-launch-new-podcast-footy-fix/

The fact that AFL NSW/ACT are starting, for the first time, a weekly podcast that has a heavy emphasis on GR AF in NSW & ACT implies that they have many, detailed "feel good" podcast stories to describe, & expand on, the increasingly strong growth of GR AF.

One can also infer from the podcast series' confidence in GR AF in NSW & ACT that the strong growth of GR AF Club & school comps'. AF since 2012 (& GWS' start) is very likely to continue into the future, indefinitely.




2. L. Jones, President of Sydney's St Ives JFC, on 8.3.21 said

"The AFL Women's competition has played a significant role in contributing to an outstanding increase in football participation. Our girls are watching the AFLW, & it's giving them something to aspire to".

"Establishing the first female side in 2016, St Ives now have over 100 girls...from U10 to U18's"

AFL NSW/ACT author said "Given the meteoric rise of female participation throughout the region...",

Jones said

"I'd like to think in 5 years our female program would equal (wow!) with the men's [boys] competition in terms of participation [in their Club AF nos.]".

"...the 530 kids [St Ives JFC girls & boys] that play every week... ("Equal "nos. unlikely in 5 years. Emphases, & words in brackets, mine)".

https://aflnswact.com.au/aflw-paving-the-way-for-women-in-sport/

EDIT:

Check out Freo's Roxy Rioux's hanger!
This is the inspiration the AFLW is providing for girls (& boys).

Round six: AFLW Mark of the Year

Check out the round six nominations for the 2021 AFLW Mark of the Year

www.afl.com.au

Scroll to tweets 9.3 & 8.3.21, for other examples of the inspirational value of the AFLW, for female players.

https://twitter.com/aflnswact

AFL NSW/ACT is looking for more Development Officers (to add to the 100+ [many are Casual] they already have in NSW & ACT).
Details here, for anyone who may have an interest.

Career Opportunity - AFL Development Officer

AFL NSW/ACT is currently seeking applications for Development Officers who are dedicated and enthusiastic individuals interested in game development.

aflnswact.com.au

 

[RedV3x]

The fact that AFL NSW/ACT are starting, for the first time, a weekly podcast

They used to discuss the SFL during the half time VFL television break in NSW.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. Daily Telegraph J. Halloran 23.3.19

Halloran is a sports' journalist (& winner of the very prestigious award for journalism, the Walkley Award), a self-described long time resident of Sydney, NRL fan, & mother of 2 kids in Sydney playing both Auskick & jnr RL.
She sets out, in detail, how GR AF is clearly winning against GR RL in Sydney, re jnr recruitment; &, re the strong appeal of AF for parents "...in winning over indifferent mums & dads, it's a no contest".

Footy Developments in NSW and Queensland

Can be done if they pick the right location. Not sure about the groundsman, but he can always be sacked and replaced by someone more pleasant.They already did that before the start of last season (sack the Australian Football hating former groundsman) - that's why the GABBA playing surface was...

www.bigfooty.com

(Scroll to my post#477)




2. The Australian 8.3.21 "Wall St Giant M. Seidner Joins GWS Board"

M. Seidner, New York-based, is the global Chief Investment Officer of Pimco Bonds- which has US$300b+ funds under management.

In a private capacity, he, & another Pimco very snr executive D. Ivascyn ("The Bond Prince"), have both each donated millions of $ to GWS, & both fly regularly to Australia to watch GWS play. They have said previously they both love AF.
Seidner will be joining the GWS Board in 2021.

The AFL has said it has no plans to allow any private parties to buy GWS.

To read the article in The Australian, without the paywall, click on link below

News - Giants in the Media

no mention of Kenners amongst the backs? He’s only been there since the start.

www.bigfooty.com

(Scroll to post#1924)





EDIT:

AFLNSW/ACT "Play On" Podcast R. O'Keefe & J. Gaynor 14.3.21

First of a weekly series of podcasts on community AF in NSW & ACT (title changed from "Footy Fix")- this week interviews Katika Adams, current coach of Coffs Harbour Breakers' men's team- probably the first female ever to be head coach a men's AF team.
Adams was raised in Broome, played AF in boys' teams there- & then played with Subiaco Lions women's team in Perth.

Coffs Harbour, pop. c.71k, is c. 250km from the Gold Coast. R. O'Keefe said nthn. NSW it is one of the last parts of NSW for AF to develop a strong following.
Adams said when she first moved to Yamba, nthn NSW (near Byron Bay), there was much hostility to AF- but in recent years, this has changed.

She said there are many good athletes in the area, & expects, eventually, there will be recruits to the VFLW, AFLW, & AFL; also saying

"There is a lot of growth [AF in nthn NSW] in the area, its much more [now] receptive to AFL. It's a much more family game. Clubs here locally are much more community oriented, compared with other sports. The sport is growing, the sense of community & family attracts a lot of good people. The sport is growing (my emphases)".

I wish our intrepid AF reporters, whose podcast series' focus is community AF, asked Adams to give specific examples of her meaning of "community & family oriented".
(Go to 30 mins. 40 secs- 31 mins. 30 secs.).

For her remarkable experiences in coaching the men's team, go to 31 mins. 30 secs.- 35 mins.

‎Play On on Apple Podcasts

‎Sport · 2022

podcasts.apple.com

As AF continues to grow in NSW & ACT, there will be ongoing pressure to have a 3rd AFL club somewhere there in a few decades; & in the short term, playing AFL games in Newcastle.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Adams said when she first moved to Yamba (near Byron Bay), there was much hostility to AF- but in recent years, this has changed- she said

I hope this wave of popularity leads to Byron Bay joining the QAFL at some point in future. Would make the competition stronger, although more spaced out.

 

[RedV3x]

She sets out "...in winning over indifferent mums & dads, it's a no contest".

Sloppy journalism.
Yes, some parents would be indifferent (which suggest uncaring) but I prefer the word unbiased (caring and open).
For young people to play AF there has to be the option to play nearby or at school. That option is becoming much more common.
It's a catch-22 situation. You need a sport to be popular as to generate options. Taking on those options generates more support.

It's an interesting situation where AFL goes head-to-head NRL.
Looking at junior participation AFL does appeal more than NRL appeals.

 

[BringBackTorps]

The Swans' U18 Female Academy team last weekend defeated the previously undefeated Geelong Falcons' U18 NAB League team by 2 goals- in Geelong!

The girls were very excited- check out the very loud rendition of their "Cheer Cheer The Red & The White" song.

Swans girls win on the road

The QBE Sydney Swans Academy NAB League girls team have had a memorable victory on the road on Saturday afternoon, defeating the previously undefeated Geelong Falcons by 13 points in Geelong.

www.sydneyswans.com.au

This is further evidence of the techtonic plates shifting in female GR sport in Sydney & NSW (ACT girls are in GWS' Academy team playing in the elite U18 Vic. NAB League)- & the quality female skilful athletes that are playing AF there.
The establishment of the AFLW has been universally acknowledged as turbocharging female GR AF since 2017 in most parts of Aust.- but the Swans don't even have their own AFLW team yet!

When the Swans join the AFLW in the next few years, female GR AF nos. in Sydney, NSW, & ACT will rise much more significantly.
As the Swans' AFL team have a much higher profile & following than GWS in NSW & the ACT, the female GR boost will be much greater, cf GWS' entry in the AFLW.


Sydney has announced yesterday that their song, "Cheer Cheer The Red & The White" is removing the word "sons"- & replacing it with "Swans".
ie"...while our loyal Swans (no longer "sons') are marching, onward to victory".

Our Loyal Swans

We have made a small but important change to our club song which is reflective of who we are and where we are going.

www.sydneyswans.com.au

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Sydney has announced yesterday that their song, "Cheer Cheer The Red & The White" is removing the word "sons"- & replacing it with "Swans".
ie"...while our loyal Swans (no longer "sons') are marching, onto victory".

Seems like a tautology to have "Swans will come in and win overall, while our loyal Swans are marching onward to victory". But I suppose that's what you get when you lift a song from a storied university.

 

[RedV3x]

Seems like a tautology to have "Swans will come in and win overall, while our loyal Swans are marching onward to victory".

No. Just a simple change to move with times.
Be grateful that Collingwood didn't choose the song - you know - "cheer cheer, the black and the white".

 

[The_Wookie]

I see that as people choosing their optimum pathway.
Previously these people would have played another sport - probably not the most suitable sport for them.

 

[Colonial]

Wonder if the ARU and NRL have anything to do with this.

 

[Seedsfan]

Wonder if the ARU and NRL have anything to do with this.

No they are old schools with years of tradition. There is a documentary called the season that followed Nudgee. It’s taken incredibly seriously. A lot of money donated back to the school from old boys that’s probably where the pressure comes from

 

[Colonial]

No they are old schools with years of tradition. There is a documentary called the season that followed Nudgee. It’s taken incredibly seriously. A lot of money donated back to the school from old boys that’s probably where the pressure comes from

Yeah I get there’s old ties to Rugby and League etc. NSW has the same old schools etc but they, as far as I’m aware, are welcoming of Aussie Rules into the schools. Most anyway.

Not a code wars thing I would say the same if football or League was banned/blocked

 

[Seedsfan]

Yeah I get there’s old ties to Rugby and League etc. NSW has the same old schools etc but they, as far as I’m aware, are welcoming of Aussie Rules into the schools. Most anyway.

Not a code wars thing I would say the same if football or League was banned/blocked

For years Rugby was banned in public schools in Vic. These things happen every where I guess

 

[Colonial]

For years Rugby was banned in public schools in Vic. These things happen every where I guess

Yes but that’s the past yeah? I’m guessing it’s played these days?

 

[NoobPie]

For years Rugby was banned in public schools in Vic. These things happen every where I guess

Really?

 

[RedV3x]

For years Rugby was banned in public schools in Vic.

There's a gulf of difference between 'not available' and being banned.

These things happen every where I guess

No, just in rugby states.

 

[RedV3x]

Why is this news ?
As Akermanis said, it's always been the case.
HTF is this a "crisis" for AFL ? AFL is booming in Queensland and now they've highlighted an area that they can do even better.
More a crisis for rugby league as it is one more area that they can lose out on.

 

[Rob]

Yeah I get there’s old ties to Rugby and League etc. NSW has the same old schools etc but they, as far as I’m aware, are welcoming of Aussie Rules into the schools. Most anyway.

Not a code wars thing I would say the same if football or League was banned/blocked

I'm guessing many schools are worried that if given the option to play Australian football, they'd choose that over rugby and then they may not be able to field a team. They've only got so many boys, and you can't really play both.

It is funny how important schools over east can take their sport - over here the PSA schools take it pretty seriously, but by then players would have had long club careers. Other schools (i.e the vast majority) don't play on weekends, and players would simply play for their club as well.

 

[RedV3x]

I'm guessing many schools are worried that if given the option to play Australian football, they'd choose that over rugby and then they may not be able to field a team.

Absolute rubbish. Private schools all over Australia run multiple football teams.

They've only got so many boys, and you can't really play both.

Absolute rubbish. About 40 players in a school of how many ?

over here the PSA schools take it pretty seriously,.

The same everywhere except we don't let parochialism get in the way of opportunity.