Remember around the time we entered the AFL it was often said that a 'generational change' was going to occur over the first 10-15 years of our existence? Well, we're about to enter our 11th season in the AFL and I have to say that I'm not convinced we've seen any significant 'generational change' since we joined the national league. But why is this? Why aren't we significantly bigger as a club than we were when we entered the league?
We have the benefit of many other examples of expansion clubs going before us and are able to analyse their varied results. So why were West Coast and Adelaide immediate hits in their cities while Brisbane and Sydney took more than a decade to make significant inroads in their market? It's easy to just say Queensland and New South Wales are rugby league states which means it's always going to be difficult. While there certainly would be some truth to that theory, you can't deny that Brisbane and Sydney have had periods throughout their history where they are just as popular as any sports team in their respective markets and therefore the rugby league influence probably isn't as big of a factor as some may think. Unsurprisingly, these periods always seem to coincide with stints of success.
For the Swans, they really began to take off in the Sydney market when Plugger made his way to the SCG. They saw a decent increase with Capper in the mid 80s when they made the finals but this was short lived and only lasted two years before they lost their marquee player, fell out of finals contention and fell back to their low numbers of the past. 1995 was the season that really began the transformation for Sydney. They doubled their membership base in '95 when Lockett donned the red and white for the first time and the following year they made their Grand Final appearance.
The Swans then more than doubled their membership base again in '97 and by the end of the '98 season they had literally increased their membership tally tenfold - up over 31k from 3k just four seasons prior. That's the kind of exponential growth that you could argue indicates a significant 'generational change' because the locals had jumped on board and we know the Swans have done a fantastic job of growing their membership base since (60k+ members in 2018). Jarrod Witts
is a real life example of the generational change that occurred in Sydney back in the late 90s and fondly talks about his memories in the stands at the SCG watching Plugger kick his 1000th goal.
Brisbane also saw a massive jump in popularity in the early 2000s when they became the envy of all clubs by winning three premierships in a row but they struggled to sustain the competitiveness after the 2004 season and really fell away in terms of their fanbase. The Lions hit 31k members in 2004 and were absolutely flying on all cylinders but were back down to 21k members just three seasons later and, prior to this season, had not reached 30k members since 2004. With the kind of success the Lions had in the early 2000s, there should be current players from Brisbane that grew up lifelong Lions fans and idolised players like Voss/Akermanis but that's not really the case. What did Sydney do that allowed exponential growth that Brisbane didn't do? Sustained success on the field for a longer period.
West Coast's early success in the AFL essentially guaranteed instant acceptance within Perth footy circles and the Eagles have always been a highly competitive team in the AFL which has allowed them to hit unthinkable heights of popularity like 100k+ members! Their superstar players like Ben Cousins were idolised by the WA kids in the late 90s/early 2000s and we see that influence to this day with players like Patrick Cripps
who states he wears the #9 on his back because he was a massive Ben Cousins/West Coast fan as a child.
I could keep going but I think the obvious trend is that you can really only achieve a 'generational change' when you're regularly winning and preferably winning for a sustained period. So, to answer my own question, I believe we're going to see genuine uptake from the Gold Coast residents who were previously uninterested/semi interested once we start winning regularly but the crucial factor that will determine whether a 'generational change' occurs is if we can sustain success long enough to create a large rusted on fanbase like the Swans and Eagles did.
So as much as we all want our club to be highly competitive ASAP, we're in a situation now with our list demographic that can actually set up the club for many generations. If we get this cycle right, we can follow the likes of Sydney and West Coast by achieving a true 'generational change' that exponentially grows our club every five or so years. That should be our true aim when talking about our current prospects.
Feel free to share your thoughts if you agree or disagree with what I've written. Very interested to see other's thoughts on this.
We have the benefit of many other examples of expansion clubs going before us and are able to analyse their varied results. So why were West Coast and Adelaide immediate hits in their cities while Brisbane and Sydney took more than a decade to make significant inroads in their market? It's easy to just say Queensland and New South Wales are rugby league states which means it's always going to be difficult. While there certainly would be some truth to that theory, you can't deny that Brisbane and Sydney have had periods throughout their history where they are just as popular as any sports team in their respective markets and therefore the rugby league influence probably isn't as big of a factor as some may think. Unsurprisingly, these periods always seem to coincide with stints of success.
For the Swans, they really began to take off in the Sydney market when Plugger made his way to the SCG. They saw a decent increase with Capper in the mid 80s when they made the finals but this was short lived and only lasted two years before they lost their marquee player, fell out of finals contention and fell back to their low numbers of the past. 1995 was the season that really began the transformation for Sydney. They doubled their membership base in '95 when Lockett donned the red and white for the first time and the following year they made their Grand Final appearance.
The Swans then more than doubled their membership base again in '97 and by the end of the '98 season they had literally increased their membership tally tenfold - up over 31k from 3k just four seasons prior. That's the kind of exponential growth that you could argue indicates a significant 'generational change' because the locals had jumped on board and we know the Swans have done a fantastic job of growing their membership base since (60k+ members in 2018). Jarrod Witts
PLAYERCARDSTART
28
Jarrod Witts
- Age
- 31
- Ht
- 209cm
- Wt
- 110kg
- Pos.
- Ruck
Career
Season
Last 5
- D
- 12.2
- 3star
- K
- 6.4
- 3star
- HB
- 5.8
- 4star
- CL
- 3.3
- 5star
- HO
- 31.8
- 5star
- D
- 10.8
- 3star
- K
- 5.9
- 2star
- HB
- 4.9
- 3star
- CL
- 3.4
- 4star
- HO
- 29.5
- 5star
- D
- 7.8
- 2star
- K
- 4.2
- 2star
- HB
- 3.6
- 3star
- CL
- 0.4
- 3star
- HO
- 8.0
- 5star
PLAYERCARDEND
Brisbane also saw a massive jump in popularity in the early 2000s when they became the envy of all clubs by winning three premierships in a row but they struggled to sustain the competitiveness after the 2004 season and really fell away in terms of their fanbase. The Lions hit 31k members in 2004 and were absolutely flying on all cylinders but were back down to 21k members just three seasons later and, prior to this season, had not reached 30k members since 2004. With the kind of success the Lions had in the early 2000s, there should be current players from Brisbane that grew up lifelong Lions fans and idolised players like Voss/Akermanis but that's not really the case. What did Sydney do that allowed exponential growth that Brisbane didn't do? Sustained success on the field for a longer period.
West Coast's early success in the AFL essentially guaranteed instant acceptance within Perth footy circles and the Eagles have always been a highly competitive team in the AFL which has allowed them to hit unthinkable heights of popularity like 100k+ members! Their superstar players like Ben Cousins were idolised by the WA kids in the late 90s/early 2000s and we see that influence to this day with players like Patrick Cripps
PLAYERCARDSTART
9
Patrick Cripps
- Age
- 29
- Ht
- 195cm
- Wt
- 93kg
- Pos.
- Mid
Career
Season
Last 5
- D
- 25.9
- 5star
- K
- 9.8
- 4star
- HB
- 16.1
- 5star
- M
- 3.4
- 3star
- T
- 5.8
- 5star
- CL
- 7.4
- 5star
- D
- 21.0
- 5star
- K
- 10.1
- 4star
- HB
- 10.9
- 5star
- M
- 2.5
- 3star
- T
- 3.8
- 4star
- CL
- 6.3
- 5star
- D
- 12.6
- 4star
- K
- 4.8
- 2star
- HB
- 7.8
- 5star
- M
- 2.0
- 3star
- T
- 3.2
- 5star
- CL
- 1.4
- 4star
PLAYERCARDEND
I could keep going but I think the obvious trend is that you can really only achieve a 'generational change' when you're regularly winning and preferably winning for a sustained period. So, to answer my own question, I believe we're going to see genuine uptake from the Gold Coast residents who were previously uninterested/semi interested once we start winning regularly but the crucial factor that will determine whether a 'generational change' occurs is if we can sustain success long enough to create a large rusted on fanbase like the Swans and Eagles did.
So as much as we all want our club to be highly competitive ASAP, we're in a situation now with our list demographic that can actually set up the club for many generations. If we get this cycle right, we can follow the likes of Sydney and West Coast by achieving a true 'generational change' that exponentially grows our club every five or so years. That should be our true aim when talking about our current prospects.
Feel free to share your thoughts if you agree or disagree with what I've written. Very interested to see other's thoughts on this.