AFL 2021 AFL Round 3

[mac23]

2.5u - Selwood over 24.5 disposals - $1.98 - 365

Leading Geelong in CBAs this year. The hawks are a great team for mids to rack up disposals. Had 27 last week and expecting the role to continue. Hawks a good opponent, last week, Prestia 29, Martin 28, Cotchin 27, Edwards 25, Lambert 24 and in round 1 McGrath 33, Merrett 31.

Strangely Selwood’s disposals just crashed in, can get over 22.5 at $1.98 Lads

 

[Veer Right]

I was way off on Freo vs Carlton so I may be way off on this one as well.

But why are people so confident about Geelong?

They've got one genuine large forward, one decent small forward, the rest is makeshift.

Rohan out means one less guy to jump and bring the ball the ground.

Dahlhaus rarely kicks goals. Duncan is back from injury (I personally hope he kicks goals but let's be real).

Higgins is at 0.2 so far this season. Who tf is Francis?

I honestly see Tuohy, a wingman, as their second most likely goalkicker, that's how empty their listed forward six are.

I'll probably regret this post in about seven hours but I just don't see where the Cats' goals are coming from.

Deep breath, you are reading way to much into things. Geelong are 7.00 to win the flag and the hawks are 81.00 for a reason.

Geelong went down by not much against the crows and Tex.

Crows form since? Stuck it out with Sydney just as well Richmond this week. Still managed 33 scoring shots against them and Sydney are the form team of the comp. Crows then rolled Gold Coast. Gold Coasts form has been solid and again Sydneys outstanding.

Geelong just beat Brisbane.

Brisbane copped the Sydney treatment, no big deal, everyone would get pumped by them right now by they kept it similar to the crows. Then beat the pies after the siren. Pies form? Stuck it well against the bulldogs and beat the blues comfortably.

Now lets look at the hawks. Just beating Essendon. Essendon flogging saints. Saints struggling against GWS and Melbourne. Weak form. Essendon copping a pasting by Port. Ports form similar to Richmonds. Then Richmond easily beat the hawks. Richmonds form is solid with the Brisbane, Port, Collingwood, Cats types.

If you still like the hawks, go for it, you never know.

 

[Oraz]

Early look at next week but

Swans/Port multi looks good

Swans should be too strong for essendon at home and port probably will have a typical bounce back win against a tigers side who will have a few missing.

 

[Selim]

got a silly multi that 100 percent does not get up but here it is

20+ Disposals
Guthrie
Selwood
Duncan
O'Meara
Hardwick
Phillips
2 Goals or More
Evans
Brockman
Lewis
Hawkins 4 Goals

Odds are 101

 

[GROTTO]

got a silly multi that 100 percent does not get up but here it is

SB says thank you.

 

[kicksome]

Tyler Brockman is paying $3 on SB to kick 2+ goals. he's kicked 2 goals both games so far this year. I'll have a go at that.

 

[FrankGrimes]

Call me silly but think smith will provide some good intel into the hawks, he was there for 10 odd years and apparently has a great football “brain”, will be interesting to see who they tag if anybody?

 

[HTPunter]

I was way off on Freo vs Carlton so I may be way off on this one as well.

But why are people so confident about Geelong?

They've got one genuine large forward, one decent small forward, the rest is makeshift.

Rohan out means one less guy to jump and bring the ball the ground.

Dahlhaus rarely kicks goals. Duncan is back from injury (I personally hope he kicks goals but let's be real).

Higgins is at 0.2 so far this season. Who tf is Francis?

I honestly see Tuohy, a wingman, as their second most likely goalkicker, that's how empty their listed forward six are.

I'll probably regret this post in about seven hours but I just don't see where the Cats' goals are coming from.

As opposed to Koschitzke, Lewis, Ceglar, Brockman, Breust (best days are well and truly behind him), Wingard (returning from interrupted preseason) and a Moore/Phillips wing type. They kicked the 3rd lowest score of the season (lowest excluding North) and Geelong have been about equal for Richmond for the past 3 seasons for stingy defences - apart from Stewart they don't have many big names but they don't concede much.

I think if Geelong kick 10 goals it'll be enough to win.

 

[mookieb]

Deep breath, you are reading way to much into things. Geelong are 7.00 to win the flag and the hawks are 81.00 for a reason.

Geelong went down by not much against the crows and Tex.

Crows form since? Stuck it out with Sydney just as well Richmond this week. Still managed 33 scoring shots against them and Sydney are the form team of the comp. Crows then rolled Gold Coast. Gold Coasts form has been solid and again Sydneys outstanding.

Geelong just beat Brisbane.

Brisbane copped the Sydney treatment, no big deal, everyone would get pumped by them right now by they kept it similar to the crows. Then beat the pies after the siren. Pies form? Stuck it well against the bulldogs and beat the blues comfortably.

Now lets look at the hawks. Just beating Essendon. Essendon flogging saints. Saints struggling against GWS and Melbourne. Weak form. Essendon copping a pasting by Port. Ports form similar to Richmonds. Then Richmond easily beat the hawks. Richmonds form is solid with the Brisbane, Port, Collingwood, Cats types.

If you still like the hawks, go for it, you never know.

Cats missing a lot of height / scoring potency up forward and form has been average. Plus they tend to play poorly at the MCG.

I'm on Hawks at a much better line than current and expect them to have a competitive loss.

 

[HTPunter]

The lowest goalkicking tally for a winning team this year is 11. Cats can manufacture that pretty easily. Hawkins 3, Frankie 2 ($2, get around it) then one or two to any of Dahl, Higgins, Tuohy, Duncan, Smith, Miers and Clark should get it done. Holmes will probably nab one due to pure speed.

Let's keep in mind that Geelong have quite an impressive defensive unit and they're coming up against a Hawks team that scored just one goal per quarter for 3/4 quarters last week. Cats probably don't have to kick 15+ to win.

This.

Hawkins could easily kick 6 too.

Reckon Talia would have normally taken Hawkins so not sure how Hartigan would go. Frost is fast and good reach but doubtful he has the strength (does any defender really?). McEvoy could switch back but still back Hawkins over him.

 

[Oraz]

I can see this being a low scoring affair somthing like Geelong 80 Hawthorn 60

 

[HTPunter]

Most definitely. Tomahawk may have kicked 3.3 on him, but those goals he kicked, there was absolutely nothing that Hartigan could do to stop them. Definitely stopped him from him from kicking a huge bag.

IIRC I think he kept him goalless to HT.

I don't think that bodes well for Hartigan then. If Hawkins can kick 3.3 on him in shortened game time, when Geelong had only 42 inside 50s, with a more defensive game than the new rule changes have made, and Hartigan played the game of his life..

Expect at least a dozen more inside 50s than that and better ball movement.

Had 1.1 to half time

 

[NYRB]

AFL Fantasy

Mitch Duncan $1.35 v $3.00 O'Meara


Anyone here reckon O'Meara worth a dabble in the fantasy markets?

 

[HTPunter]

AFL Fantasy

Mitch Duncan $1.35 v $3.00 O'Meara


Anyone here reckon O'Meara worth a dabble in the fantasy markets?

At those odds, yes. Can get 30+ in tackles easily. If Duncan plays a slightly reduced role in his return then both should be in the 80s and $3 is good odds.

 

[5 Bucks]

AFL Fantasy

Mitch Duncan $1.35 v $3.00 O'Meara


Anyone here reckon O'Meara worth a dabble in the fantasy markets?

O'Meara is a contested beast who doesn't have much else to his game. Lots of contested handballs. Not great for fantasy.

Duncan kicks the ball plenty, takes marks, kicks goals. He can rack up 20 points in two minutes.

O'Meara 30 touches 88 DT round 1
21 touches 74 DT last week

Duncan would score 140 if he had 30 touches.

 

[NYRB]

At those odds, yes. Can get 30+ in tackles easily. If Duncan plays a slightly reduced role in his return then both should be in the 80s and $3 is good odds.

Looking at some quick stats, Parfitt was leading tackle player for Geelong last year with close to 6 tackles a game. Parfitt's line on AFL Fantasy is currently under/Over 83.5.

James Worpel who isn't playing today, led tackles for the Hawks with 81 tackles last season.


One that stood out for me is Shaun Higgins, I know he has had a slow start to the season.

His current line on AFL Fantasy is : Under 80.5 $1.88 v $1.88 Over 80.5


I say that goes overs


Shaun Higgins AFL Fantasy score:

80+= $1.75
90+= $2.50
100+= $4
110+= $6.50
120+= $13


He averaged 76.4 in 2020 (which adjusted to 20 minute quarters is 91.44), 95.3 in 2019, and 93.9 in 2018. Even 90+ looks a decent odds there.

 

[HTPunter]

Looking at some quick stats, Parfitt was leading tackle player for Geelong last year with close to 6 tackles a game. Parfitt's line on AFL Fantasy is currently under/Over 83.5.

James Worpel who isn't playing today, led tackles for the Hawks with 81 tackles last season.


One that stood out for me is Shaun Higgins, I know he has had a slow start to the season.

His current line on AFL Fantasy is : Under 80.5 $1.88 v $1.88 Over 80.5


I say that goes overs


Shaun Higgins AFL Fantasy score:

80+= $1.75
90+= $2.50
100+= $4
110+= $6.50
120+= $13


He averaged 76.4 in 2020 (which adjusted to 20 minute quarters is 91.44), 95.3 in 2019, and 93.9 in 2018. Even 90+ looks a decent odds there.

Which bookie is this on

 

[NYRB]

Which bookie is this on

PointsBet (and no I am not an ambassador for them either)

 

[HTPunter]

PointsBet (and no I am not an ambassador for them either)


View attachment 1094329

Cheers.

Heads up too Worpel is named unless he's a late out??

 

[NYRB]

Cheers.

Heads up too Worpel is named unless he's a late out??

my bad Worpel is on the interchange bench.

 

[maskmcgee]

tempted to cash out and load up on hawthorn tbh.. got a bad feel about geelong today...

What do you think, 30k on Sydney H2H next week good bet?

 

[GROTTO]

Tyler Brockman is paying $3 on SB to kick 2+ goals. he's kicked 2 goals both games so far this year. I'll have a go at that.

Also kicked 2goals in the trial game as well.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u - Higgins under 22.5 disposals - $1.83 - lads

Interestingly Higgins’ role didn’t improve the way I thought it would in round 2 and it resulted in most of his touches being in and around the inside 50. With Rohan now out and Duncan in, it lessens his chances to have a role desired to achieve the overs here.



1u - Selwood over 22.5 disposals - $1.98 - lads

Bit of a bumper on the initial Selwood play. Appears that one of the big players has caused the bookies to flip their lines. A definite over reaction dropping it this much.

 

[BloodRet]

Duncan
Burgoyne
@4.56 lads

 

[Kiddbrown]

Lewis 4+
hawkins 6+
$357/1. Sb