AFL 2021 AFL Round 4

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Port will win. It's round 3, not a final

I can’t see Richmond winning either.

Vlastuin OUT.
Prestia OUT.
Cotchin tweaked his hammy so guessing won’t be 100%.
AWAY game.

Port unlucky not to beat us in the Finals last season, they’ll be coming at us Friday night like the Swans did.
 

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Only one set of bets for me this week (unless one of my fellow punting board degenerates finds a decent train*).

(*And no offense but neither Papley nor Buddy inspire me, as a seasoned train man).

Here's the train some of you are looking for:

Kicked 0.1 in Rd 1 vs Geelong
Kicked 0.4 in Rd 2 vs Sydney
Kicked 1.1 in Rd 3 vs Gold Coast

Among the comp leaders for pressure acts inside the forward 50. A tackling machine.

This week playing against the worst side in the comp, with the worst defense seen at pro level in a long, long time.

And also playing his first game at Colonial, in his home state of Victoria.

Who knows how many matches he went along and watched at this ground, back when he was a kid supporting the Bombers?

This week he is going to have his kicking boots on, under the roof, in his best chance of all time snag a few easy goals.

Atley to Ziebell, looks around, no options, closed down, BALL! Berry to line up for his fourth, directly in front!

View attachment 1095895

If this train doesn't come in, I'll need to take a spell for a while.

But I'm confident :thumbsu:
Yep. Great pick mate. I had him pencilled in for a few bets!
 
What bookie is the Berry train on?
With sports bet its:
2+ $2.10
3+ $4.50
4+ $12

and ladbrokes only has him in the 2+ market for $3.90
As jikost said, it was sportsbet. Sorry, I should have mentioned that.

I didn't even put much on this one, I'm still heartbroken after Mitch Lewis' 2.1 (and one goal stolen by his teammate) a few days ago.

B-train has already come in yeah boi.jpg

That's a small bet, there's no way that moves markets. My bets on 3+ and 2+ were also small.

So either my fellow degenerates on this board are slamming the odds in as soon as I post the train timetable...

...or sportsbet genuinely do watch this page, just as NYRB has been saying.

In which case, LOL!

Now they're offering almost 6x cashout on 4+, almost 4x on 3+, and 2x on 2+. That's madness.

But I'm not cashing out. I reckon Berry is about a 1-10 to 1-20 chance to kick four goals against North this week.

I'm still playing with house money thanks to Gulden and Orazio Rd 1, so I'm riding this train all the way:

Whether that is over the cliff, or to Moneyville Central.

giphy.gif
 

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Looks like money is coming in for the Power.

Tigers out to +7.5 and 2.30
I kinda like the idea that this is a big game for the Power - revenge for Rich kicking them out in the prelim - but both teams are coming off a loss so Tigers might be up for a scrap here. Sure they are missing some players, but if Cotchin plays and Houli comes in they aren't looking too bad. Dunno if hitting -8.5 against Rich is the best play, but chucked $50 on Power with TT promo as they def. should win the most disposals even if they lose.
 
I kinda like the idea that this is a big game for the Power - revenge for Rich kicking them out in the prelim - but both teams are coming off a loss so Tigers might be up for a scrap here. Sure they are missing some players, but if Cotchin plays and Houli comes in they aren't looking too bad. Dunno if hitting -8.5 against Rich is the best play, but chucked $50 on Power with TT promo as they def. should win the most disposals even if they lose.
I think the line will come in when Cotchin is announced as IN and Houli comes IN, as well.

IIRC its been as low as -4.5 and high as -8.5
 
As jikost said, it was sportsbet. Sorry, I should have mentioned that.

I didn't even put much on this one, I'm still heartbroken after Mitch Lewis' 2.1 (and one goal stolen by his teammate) a few days ago.

View attachment 1096496

That's a small bet, there's no way that moves markets. My bets on 3+ and 2+ were also small.

So either my fellow degenerates on this board are slamming the odds in as soon as I post the train timetable...

...or sportsbet genuinely do watch this page, just as NYRB has been saying.

In which case, LOL!

Now they're offering almost 6x cashout on 4+, almost 4x on 3+, and 2x on 2+. That's madness.

But I'm not cashing out. I reckon Berry is about a 1-10 to 1-20 chance to kick four goals against North this week.

I'm still playing with house money thanks to Gulden and Orazio Rd 1, so I'm riding this train all the way:

Whether that is over the cliff, or to Moneyville Central.

giphy.gif

Goodluck mate, got on berry too! choo choo

Also SB, if you plebs are reading this then put up a tom hickey AGS and 2+ goal score market ya dogs

:eyes:
 
Buddy is in quite a few multis that I've seen on here so the most likely outcome is that he pops a calf or hamstring in the first few minutes and goes goalless while the bookies piss themselves laughing at us.
Yeahhhhhhh... 🙋‍♂️Most of the buddy multis are mine.. 😆 Please don't get too swayed just from my bias towards him.
And Yes I may be in trouble if he fails to get any.
Please dont jinx him, lol
(But he has a career Ave of about 3g per game so I'm reasonably confident.)
 
AFL Fantasy Betting lines for Swans v Bombers:

Dane Rampe: Under 70.5 $1.88 v $1.88 Over 70.5
Jake Lloyd: Under 111.5 $1.88 v $1.88 Over 111.5
Zach Merrett: Under 116.5 $1.88 v $1.88 Over 116.5
Tipungwuti: Under 65.5 $1.88 v $1.88 Over 65.5
 
Jake Lloyd 4-8 record in his last 12 games in 2019 and 2021 at the line of 111.5 pts for fantasy at the SCG.

I think thats quite a high score to get even for a prolific ball gettor for the tight congested ground like the SCG. The unders is the value there.

Someone mentioned in the last round, the Swans are playing a different style of footy this season.
 

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