Preview Rnd 4 - Carlton v Gold Coast, Saturday 10th Apr Metricon Stadium 7:25pm - Team post #931

[Osc1]

But the bookies aren't, like last week with Freo. There's not much in it, a good deal less than last week, but I'm not sure it's 'adjusted' enough yet to factor in them missing their best midfielder, their pretty handy ruckman and both of his understudies and their CHF (relief ruck). It's not the biggest list but it feels like a pretty substantial hit to the core of their team.

That being said, I'm not thinking 'easy win' or anything like that.

Had to look up the Fox tips out of interest too:
Carlton (5): David King, Max Laughton, David Zita, Matt Balmer, Kath Loughnan
GCS (9): Nick Dal Santo, Brad Johnson, Tom Morris, Sarah Olle, Drew Jones, Jordan Lewis, Ben Dixon, Ben Waterworth, Leigh Montagna

There’s a few Carlton haters there so I wouldn’t worry.

 

[Gethelred]

I am intrigued a bit by how many people externally think we'll lose this.

 

[Ald Gardiner]

I know why Suns are almost favourites, it’s purely based on form to date, which is fair enough.

They were level with Eagles at 3/4 time in WA Rd 1, lost by 25, only five fewer scoring shots

Belted Norf Rd 2

Pushed Crows to 10 pts in SA, same number of scoring shots

I think too many here think this will be nice and comfy for us, pretty delusional.

Even without Witts this will be hard going. Sure we beat them easily last yr, but the 4 day break was a huge negative for them.

I’ll be thrilled with a win, any win, thanks very much

 

[Blue__Balls]

Big difference between Eddie, who has been almost perenially healthy and McGovern who's fitness levels have been questionable throughout his career.

Further, a huge difference in regards to structural importance. If Eddie went down you can adjust so much more easily than a key position player.

Playing McGovern you increase your risk of having multiple players injured which means not even a sub will save you.

I'd rather reward Oscar. Safer albeit less upside.

Comes down to why Gov's minutes were managed in the reserves.

If they're building up his fitness then it's probably not the right move to bring him in now without a full game under his belt.

But if they're satisfied with his fitness and just wanted to give him a half of footy to assess his touch/timing and then see how he pulled up afterwards? Well, then assuming he didn't pull up incredibly sore the next day, his performance maybe justifies selection.

He got most of the preseason in, didn't he? So presumably hasn't lost too much conditioning over the last few weeks.

 

[Coops93]

This isn't even a trap game, it's close. Carlton should be favourites, but it's not as though it's an upset if we lose. It's close enough.

Their midfield is quite good. Swallow is a good contested and clearance player, Anderson inside/outside, Touk Miller

11

Touk Miller

Age

28

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

12.3

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

5.4

5star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.8

5star

K

5.8

3star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.0

5star

can run all day and has great skill. Then roll through Greenwood - an excellent clearance and contested player, actually a good matchup for Cripps inside, Rankine for a burst, Ellis who's a good runner. They're a balanced midfield unit with a good mix of contested mids and outside runners and a couple who do both. They have a few good medium sized forwards and King is solid.

I could see McKay going off again up forward. In a wrestling match Collins could take him but if H gets on his bike he's in trouble.

The ruck issue could be a big deal or it could be nothing. It'd hardly be the first time a team has a gameplan to shark off the opposing ruckman and pull it off. On that, Pittonet hasn't ever been confused for a creative tapman, so he'd be fairly easy for opponents to read. Further to that maybe playing Greenwood in the ruck works in that they have an extra clearance midfielder around than usual.

 

[JustaBattler]

10.20 mark of the 3rd. Crippa’s second goal. Fairly sure it will register as a tackle. You can scream at the wind all you like longing for smashing of yesteryear but, he tackled, got a free, kicked a goal and didn’t hurt his shoulder. All wins.

If you think that is tackling - you are in lala land - that free was for incorrect disposal - the Freo player missed kicking the ball one ump would give a free another may interpret that ball was dislodged in tackle play on, a different player may have got the kick away to advantage - it is a lottery.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I know why Suns are favourites, it’s purely based on form to date, which is fair enough.

They were level with Eagles at 3/4 time in WA Rd 1, lost by 25, only five fewer scoring shots

Belted Norf Rd 2

Pushed Crows to 10 pts in SA, same number of scoring shots

I think too many here think this will be nice and comfy for us, pretty delusional.

Even without Witts this will be hard going. Sure we beat them easily last yr, but the 4 day break was a huge negative for them.

I’ll be thrilled with a win, any win, thanks very much

Danger game for sure - we lose if we rock up thinking that they're gonna be pushovers because of their injuries.

All between the ears this week. Put the arrogant cocky attitude behind us and save the celebration for after the final siren. If we want to be taken seriously, this should be one of those games the commentators describe as one side "putting on a clinic".

 

[CJMB]

Comes down to why Gov's minutes were managed in the reserves.

If they're building up his fitness then it's probably not the right move to bring him in now without a full game under his belt.

But if they're satisfied with his fitness and just wanted to give him a half of footy to assess his touch/timing and then see how he pulled up afterwards? Well, then assuming he didn't pull up incredibly sore the next day, his performance maybe justifies selection.

He got most of the preseason in, didn't he? So presumably hasn't lost too much conditioning over the last few weeks.

Yeah, so much of this stuff we have no idea about. It's easy to look from the outside and see 'reduced minutes, played just over a half' and interpret that as 'he's not fit enough to run out a full game yet', when in fact it's quite likely to be a single component of the fitness training and they just want to get a read on his touch/form.

If they're happy with what they see and he's done enough work in other aspects of training/rehab/reconditioning/etc then maybe they'd prefer to get him off the park rather than risk anything happening (collision injury, etc) for the rest of the game. We were told he'd had a great preseason up until late in the piece so he might have a solid base to begin with.

 

[JustaBattler]

A big test on the coaching group coming up and that is thinking about the best way to use a ruck advantage.
I would be expecting the Suns mids to be positioning themselves defensively for starters and trusting turnovers and rebound play from their running mids.
Open field tackling will be on show in this match and Carlton mids will do well to stay with their opponents.
Who goes to Lukosius - who is an absolute weapon with his long range bullets and pin point disposal?
They are also at home and always play better there.

This is a must win against a side that is a direct competitor for a finals spot - just like the Collingwood game - if our mids can get on top like they did over Freo and we dont waste too many kicks at goal - we win. If we lose - the pressure goes from orange to red zone.

 

[footyfan1978]

If you think that is tackling - you are in lala land - that free was for incorrect disposal - the Freo player missed kicking the ball one ump would give a free another may interpret that ball was dislodged in tackle play on, a different player may have got the kick away to advantage - it is a lottery.

The incorrect disposal is only relevant if throwing the ball out by yourself. In this case a player dropped the ball, which you are allowed to do out in open. If the player drops a ball and no one tackling him, there is no rule that says a player should have a free against. It is because he was tackled and dropped the ball in same play as the tackle that he has been paid a free against. Correctly too, in this case.

If only this umpire was in Eagles v Carlton 2011 final, we would have won.

 

[footyfan1978]

This isn't even a trap game, it's close. Carlton should be favourites, but it's not as though it's an upset if we lose.

Trust, me, if we lose this game, a lot of people are going to be not just upset, but very very ******* angry.
* reading these after game threads if we lose. Would be a ******* nightmare.

 

[WFGodot]

Id like to see Stocker and McG back in. If reports are correct re: VFL they've earned a spot.

It will be interesting to see if Setters walks back in.

So who potentially misses out? Murphy, Casboult, Cotrell, Betts, Dow????

I think we can afford to go with one ruck against GCS considering their misfortune.

I doubt there will be more than 2 changes.

Lets see if we can string good performances together? I'm not counting this chicken until it hatches.

 

[Coops93]

Trust, me, if we lose this game, a lot of people are going to be not just upset, but very very ******* angry.
fu** reading these after game threads if we lose. Would be a ******* nightmare.

That's because they have unrealistic ideas on what the Suns are.

I too would be upset and I even said we should be favourites, but it's not like it'd be a massive upset.

 

[SirSanchez]

I’d pick O’Brien (at this stage) every day of the week over Dow. How many chances has Dow had even when he plays ordinary?
I think the draft number is still playing way too high on some people’s minds.

No way O'Brien for Dow. needs to be ideally Setters, or Stocker. Don't believe O'Brien has what's needed to be a dominant mid.

 

[Blue Chip Pass]

I agree with many of you to potentially bring in Stocker for Dow and McGov in for Casbolt.
But I think the MC like having the back up Ruck option of Levi.
Will be interesting.
We should win and we need to win. Will do heaps for the players self belief and confidence.

 

[footyfan1978]

That's because they have unrealistic ideas on what the Suns are.

I too would be upset and I even said we should be favourites, but it's not like it'd be a massive upset.

I will not be mildly upset if we lose. I will be massively upset. Toys out of cot and the rest..

 

[Coops93]

I will not be mildly upset if we lose. I will be massively upset. Toys out of cot and the rest..

That's your prerogative, but as someone who watches every Suns game and goes to every game at Carrara Stadium I can tell you these boys play hard all the time and it's not an embarrassment in the slightest. They pushed West Coast for 3 1/2 qtrs in Perth and you could make the case they were a Witts injury away from knocking off Adelaide as well.

 

[Vo Rogue]

I agree with many of you to potentially bring in Stocker for Dow and McGov in for Casbolt.
But I think the MC like having the back up Ruck option of Levi.
Will be interesting.
We should win and we need to win. Will do heaps for the players self belief and confidence.

Mcgovern spent time town back on the weekend. I am hoping we are planning on pinch hitting Liam Jones in the ruck, with Mcgovern swinging back when needed. I can see this being a great way of not allowing Mcgovern to drift out of the game as well. Parks could also probably play taller if needed as well. Levi has been fantastic the last couple of years, but I think it's clear we need to start finding new answers.

 

[footyfan1978]

That's your prerogative, but as someone who watches every Suns game and goes to every game at Carrara Stadium I can tell you these boys play hard all the time and it's not an embarrassment in the slightest. They pushed West Coast for 3 1/2 qtrs in Perth and you could make the case they were a Witts injury away from knocking off Adelaide as well.

Gold Coast are cool, but on our own journey if we want to get serious we got to put them away here, especially with no genuine ruck on their end.
If we cannot it going to tell us we got nice guys for coaches but complete mugs at creating a quality team we want going serious places. Just win!!!

 

[thylacine60]

Seems to be lineball with the tipsters, slightly favouring Suns.

 

[Coops93]

Gold Coast are cool, but on our own journey if we want to get serious we got to put them away here, especially with no genuine ruck on their end.
If we cannot it going to tell us we got nice guys for coaches but complete mugs at creating a quality team we want going serious places. Just win!!!

Oh yeah I agree; from that perspective it's a must win. Internally Carlton would be devastated by a loss here. A team at a similar point in a build to us with more significant outs than us would be hard to swallow for us.

I was talking about the league wide perspective though; from that I'm saying it's not a mismatch that we should be embarrassed by losing.

 

[gbatman]

Carlton desperately need to move on from Casboult and also get McGovern into that team. I feel McGovern working with McKay as a leading target would be dynamite up forward. The way we are playing and the way the game is with the new rules should suit McGovern big time. It definitely does not suit Casboult types at all and to be honest having a big tall player we can bomb to doesn't encourage us to play good football.

The new rules have brought in tallish quick leading forwards into the game and that is what McGovern is and IMO he's the best player to get the ball to because unlike Silvagni, McKay and especially Casboult he is a very good kick for goal.

However this means we need to use McGovern as a relief ruckman and he just may not be fit enough for this this week. IMO this is the change we absolutely must be making.

To put it into perspective, Casboult had 7 hitouts last week and kicked no goals. I'd gladly give the opposition those 7 hitouts to have McGovern in the side who is going to kick goals and provide some forward pressure. I do not rate the second ruck at all if they can't play footy. It's an overrated position.

On Dow. He and Stocker are probably at similar levels. I have always liked Stocker better as he's harder at it and a better kick. Stocker is a year younger and that can mean a lot for young players. Both are good enough to get a game but are still not good enough to be set in stone inside our best 22. IMO we need to rotate both players in and out of the side. Dow has had a good run in the seniors but is due to go back to the reserves and play a bit of footy there where he can get good numbers and work on his outside game which needs to improve. Stocker needs to have a good taste of senior footy. IMO we need to keep doing this until it gets to a point where one or both of them are performing to a level where we really want them in the seniors. At this stage it's important for us to play both.

I think we need to give both these players exposure but perhaps not at the same time. We also need to give them time as primary onballers where we use them at stoppages a bit because we aren't really doing that. We're using guys like Cripps, Walsh, Williams and Curnow and these guys have to play around them which is fair, they are the senior crew but I can't help but think that this isn't overly good for their development. Dow was drafted as a primary onballer but comes in and plays half forward and as a midfielder who has to play around our other midfielders rather than be the target of our ruck setup or as a tagger where he's at the coal face. I get he needs to be able to play that role however this is not what got him drafted and not what we drafted him as. Tricky situation, play to win or play to develop or find a happy balance.

I'd love to see some changes come to this side but I am not getting my hopes up. As is often the case you get exposed against two decent sides then you cop a crap one and belt them and all is forgotten, the heat is off and the changes that need to happen don't. I think Setterfield will come in for Dow and we will beat a lowly Gold coast team and next week we will come up against a strong Port side and those players who let us down against Richmond and Collingwood will bob up again in discussion. Hopefully not but time will tell. Fingers crossed we win, we have guys in the VFL put their hands up and we improve.

 

[FRUMPY]

Yeah, so much of this stuff we have no idea about. It's easy to look from the outside and see 'reduced minutes, played just over a half' and interpret that as 'he's not fit enough to run out a full game yet', when in fact it's quite likely to be a single component of the fitness training and they just want to get a read on his touch/form.

If they're happy with what they see and he's done enough work in other aspects of training/rehab/reconditioning/etc then maybe they'd prefer to get him off the park rather than risk anything happening (collision injury, etc) for the rest of the game. We were told he'd had a great preseason up until late in the piece so he might have a solid base to begin with.

Yeah if they wanted fitness into him without playing he would have been running sidelines with Philp after they played their alloted time. Will be interesting to see which way they go with Gov - he comes straight in when deemed fit enough for AFL.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I haven't seen much of his VFL highlights, but I remember the last time I saw him play seniors, he was slowish.
The conundrum is, the 2's are misleading, as the intensity between that and the 1st is a canyon.

The other conundrum is that it's hard to adjust to the speed and intensity of the seniors if you aren't playing in them.
It even took Walsh time to adjust to this and he was ready made, playing from day dot and breaking records. His disposal wasn't great because he was always rushed from misjudging time and space. We're only starting to see big improvement from him now.
If Stocker is knocking down the door now, then now is when he needs his chance(omissions permitting of course). He will adapt in time. The problem I have with the young guys or the guys that have been on the list a few years but haven't played many senior games, when they do get a chance, if they play one poor game, they're straight back out again. Then they go back to the VFL, dominate and wait for their next chance. A player like that should be getting 2-4 games in a row to have a chance to adapt, adjust and show some improvement at that level.
If they show no improvement over those 2-4 games, they go back having had a decent taste and identifying some areas to improve on.
IMO the senior players are the ones that need to be dropped quicker when they are out of form. Levi, for example, shouldn't be getting 3 absolute stinkers in a row (not like his preseason form was much better). The danger for him now, is that after his 3rd stinker, we've had a big win and there's every possibility we don't make any changes for this week's game and Levi gets a chance to have an OK game because GC have no ruck.

 

[FRUMPY]

I know why Suns are almost favourites, it’s purely based on form to date, which is fair enough.

They were level with Eagles at 3/4 time in WA Rd 1, lost by 25, only five fewer scoring shots

Belted Norf Rd 2

Pushed Crows to 10 pts in SA, same number of scoring shots

I think too many here think this will be nice and comfy for us, pretty delusional.

Even without Witts this will be hard going. Sure we beat them easily last yr, but the 4 day break was a huge negative for them.

I’ll be thrilled with a win, any win, thanks very much

Add to that just over a week ago we were 'terrible' etc and had an easy kill with a freo side that didnt offer much (both due to our good play and they didnt turn up)