Preview Rnd 4 - Carlton v Gold Coast, Saturday 10th Apr Metricon Stadium 7:25pm - Team post #931

[spry]

Absolutely idiotic to think we will just waltz through with a win. Ban-worthy stuff.

It’s the theme of the day. Tomorrow we’ll be losing by 10 goals.

 

[spry]

The other conundrum is that it's hard to adjust to the speed and intensity of the seniors if you aren't playing in them.
It even took Walsh time to adjust to this and he was ready made, playing from day dot and breaking records. His disposal wasn't great because he was always rushed from misjudging time and space. We're only starting to see big improvement from him now.
If Stocker is knocking down the door now, then now is when he needs his chance(omissions permitting of course). He will adapt in time. The problem I have with the young guys or the guys that have been on the list a few years but haven't played many senior games, when they do get a chance, if they play one poor game, they're straight back out again. Then they go back to the VFL, dominate and wait for their next chance. A player like that should be getting 2-4 games in a row to have a chance to adapt, adjust and show some improvement at that level.
If they show no improvement over those 2-4 games, they go back having had a decent taste and identifying some areas to improve on.
IMO the senior players are the ones that need to be dropped quicker when they are out of form. Levi, for example, shouldn't be getting 3 absolute stinkers in a row (not like his preseason form was much better). The danger for him now, is that after his 3rd stinker, we've had a big win and there's every possibility we don't make any changes for this week's game and Levi gets a chance to have an OK game because GC have no ruck.

I think of it as the ‘one more game’ policy.

If a player has two below average games in the firsts. Give them one more game with their growth areas. If it’s below pa again they go back down for at least 2-4 weeks. When they have a good game. They get ‘one more game’ to back it up.

Same should be the case with injury. They have a good first game in the ressies. They get one more game to back it up and increase loads.

This is the sort of thing our depth should allow us to do.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I agree with many of you to potentially bring in Stocker for Dow and McGov in for Casbolt.
But I think the MC like having the back up Ruck option of Levi.
Will be interesting.
We should win and we need to win. Will do heaps for the players self belief and confidence.

This is one game where we don't need Levi as a backup ruck and he's done nothing to hold his spot. Keeping him in just because he's Pitto's backup just makes no sense.

I'm keen to see Gov back in the side, but he hasn't done enough yet to earn it back IMO and didn't play a full game, which says to me that they are easing him back. I know others have put forth reasoning for why he could come straight back in despite not playing a full game in VFL, but I expect him to play a full game in the VFL this week and then be available for seniors. Oscar has been more consistent for longer and deserves the spot if Levi comes out. He should also be able to handle the 2nd ruck duties against GC, but I'd almost be tempted to let Pitto ruck all game if possible.

 

[DirkDiggler]

I reckon at least 3 times since joining Carlton has McGoverns fitness been described as his fittest ever.

Must be one fit bloke by now.

Fit or unfit otherwise he offers us more than Levi. Gets in by default. Also like the idea of a mobile forward line where opposition defenders cant run off our forwards.

 

[Rustica]

Saad seen training away from the main group with his knee strapped.. anyone got any insight on this?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

While I'm always wary of games against teams like this and don't want the players to go in expecting a win, I do think we should have this comfortably (30+ points). I was more pessimistic about the Freo game, but after that one, I'm now fairly confident with this one. Not saying we can't lose, but we shouldn't.
IMO Freo are the better team between Freo and GC and their outs are fairly similar. GC's forward line is probably more dangerous, especially if King and Rankine fire.

I'm confident of Weiters and Jones being able to restrict King (who's their 2nd tall?). We should get silver service in the ruck. Even if their mids play off Pitto, our mids should at least make it a draw. My worry is, if Levi stays in, GC just let him do whatever he wants, he continues to have no impact, and they can double team Harry. Oscar would at least provide an unknown for the GC defence and force them to put some time into him and play Harry one on one.

 

[DirkDiggler]

This is one game where we don't need Levi as a backup ruck and he's done nothing to hold his spot. Keeping him in just because he's Pitto's backup just makes no sense.

I'm keen to see Gov back in the side, but he hasn't done enough yet to earn it back IMO and didn't play a full game, which says to me that they are easing him back. I know others have put forth reasoning for why he could come straight back in despite not playing a full game in VFL, but I expect him to play a full game in the VFL this week and then be available for seniors. Oscar has been more consistent for longer and deserves the spot if Levi comes out. He should also be able to handle the 2nd ruck duties against GC, but I'd almost be tempted to let Pitto ruck all game if possible.

Prefer we should utilise Liam Jones as our relief ruck than continue to gift Levi games. Liam is a fierce 198cm competitor with a tank. Think he can equip himself quite well if given the opportunity.

 

[Aphrodite]

Saad seen training away from the main group with his knee strapped.. anyone got any insight on this?

Did you see that on Twitter?

 

[Rustica]

Did you see that on Twitter?

Correct..

 

[JustaBattler]

Jack Silvagni

1

Jack Silvagni

Age

26

Ht

194cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

5.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

1.3

1star

M

1.7

2star

T

0.7

1star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.8

4star

did himself no favours when he missed a set shot from 15 meters out directly in front. I could tell by the way he was approaching the shot he had zero confidence - this was underlined by the way he refused to take a shot with open goals from 30 meters out and instead looked for an a difficult cross the body looping pass to Harry who had called for it - fortunately Harry marked but I think he missed the shot on goal from the left side- his non preferred side of goals.

Levi has been playing a foil for Harry - going nowhere near him most of the time which si a huge imporvement in forward structures but Levi is an immobile target- he has spent years nbeing doubel and triple ganaged so he generally just stands a spot encouraging mids to kick it onto his head most of the time- it would be good when he did get a mark that he could be relied ooon to kick a goal- the fact is that his kicking has gone back to shyte from close quarters anyway. Fogarty's only weak point is is his park football run up and se tshot kicking style- another unreliable kick for goal in forward lines.

Fitting McGovern in for either Levi or Jack is a no brainer if kicking set shots and actually taking contesrted marks is a KPI for a forward - Fogarty has both Jack and Levi covered for defensive work in forward 50.

Looking at footage of Cuningham in 2's it is pretty clear he is back downb there to improve his defensive work - and learn how to play mid /forward rotation. Unfortunately he copped a head knock and will miss a week of football - but encouraging signs from him to see he made 11 tackles and kicked goals. We need Cuningham to 'make it' - so he can play forward/mid rotation - has all the athletic and slkill attributes required.

I dont think the team is set in stone instead it is a holding pattern whilst a slew of classier players get fit and become available.

I'd want Mcgovern with match touch ready for Port and Brisbane - dont car ewho gets dropped to slot him in -easy to make a case for Dow over Jack I guess.

 

[Aphrodite]

Correct..

Follow up to that tweet:-

'Club says he is still available for selection. Will face fitness test'.

 

[Rustica]

Follow up to that tweet:-

'Club says he is still available for selection. Will face fitness test'.

Thank you just saw it

 

[CJMB]

Jack Silvagni did himself no favours when he missed a set shot from 15 meters out directly in front. I could tell by the way he was approaching the shot he had zero confidence - this was underlined by the way he refused to take a shot with open goals from 30 meters out and instead looked for an a difficult cross the body looping pass to Harry who had called for it - fortunately Harry marked but I think he missed the shot on goal from the left side- his non preferred side of goals.

Levi has been playing a foil for Harry - going nowhere near him most of the time which si a huge imporvement in forward structures but Levi is an immobile target- he has spent years nbeing doubel and triple ganaged so he generally just stands a spot encouraging mids to kick it onto his head most of the time- it would be good when he did get a mark that he could be relied ooon to kick a goal- the fact is that his kicking has gone back to sh*te from close quarters anyway. Fogarty's only weak point is is his park football run up and se tshot kicking style- another unreliable kick for goal in forward lines.

Fitting McGovern in for either Levi or Jack is a no brainer if kicking set shots and actually taking contesrted marks is a KPI for a forward - Fogarty has both Jack and Levi covered for defensive work in forward 50.

Looking at footage of Cuningham in 2's it is pretty clear he is back downb there to improve his defensive work - and learn how to play mid /forward rotation. Unfortunately he copped a head knock and will miss a week of football - but encouraging signs from him to see he made 11 tackles and kicked goals. We need Cuningham to 'make it' - so he can play forward/mid rotation - has all the athletic and slkill attributes required.

I dont think the team is set in stone instead it is a holding pattern whilst a slew of classier players get fit and become available.

I'd want Mcgovern with match touch ready for Port and Brisbane - dont car ewho gets dropped to slot him in -easy to make a case for Dow over Jack I guess.

In that scenario I'd much rather go into the match with Pitto, Harry, Mitch, & Jack, with Oscar the sub. Appears like the suns will go with Ballenden (195cm defender with 10 games exp) as ruck and have their CHF Burgess (191cm) and sometimes-tagger Greenwood (191cm) do the pinch hitting. Not sure why we can't go in with Pitto doing his 80% ruck duties and say Jack & Gov split the difference.

 

[blue healer]

I'm getting a tyre sized salami pizza and a six pack of zero next saturday night and I'm going to watch my beautiful blue boys and very bad things will happen if they don't give me effort............very............bad............ things...........

With a tyre sized pizza and a 6 pack of zero I'd put a couple of bucks on very bad things happening even if we win in a canter.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Probably Dow as he’s had his block to build on. .


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

3 games is a fairly standard 'block' and will be a positive for him to go back to work on what he learnt during those 3.

 

[thylacine60]

These are the games we have traditionally lost ..so lets start changing that culture

But we'd have lost this game in 95 too.

 

[thebluenewdeal]

While I'm always wary of games against teams like this and don't want the players to go in expecting a win, I do think we should have this comfortably (30+ points). I was more pessimistic about the Freo game, but after that one, I'm now fairly confident with this one. Not saying we can't lose, but we shouldn't.
IMO Freo are the better team between Freo and GC and their outs are fairly similar. GC's forward line is probably more dangerous, especially if King and Rankine fire.

I'm confident of Weiters and Jones being able to restrict King (who's their 2nd tall?). We should get silver service in the ruck. Even if their mids play off Pitto, our mids should at least make it a draw. My worry is, if Levi stays in, GC just let him do whatever he wants, he continues to have no impact, and they can double team Harry. Oscar would at least provide an unknown for the GC defence and force them to put some time into him and play Harry one on one.

We cannot underestimate them @ home, seen a few comments from Lukosious about how they play at Metricon and they’re fairly confident on that deck now.
I agree that Levi should probably have a rest for this one, he played much better against freo but he still looks sore. Big game for weiters and I hope he just throws the blanket over King. Pitto just needs to work really hard post hit out.
If we go out there expecting a win then we will get belted early and just play catch up. It’s happened more times than not with us.

 

[footyfan1978]

Oh yeah I agree; from that perspective it's a must win. Internally Carlton would be devastated by a loss here. A team at a similar point in a build to us with more significant outs than us would be hard to swallow for us.

I was talking about the league wide perspective though; from that I'm saying it's not a mismatch that we should be embarrassed by losing.

We are in a similar point of build to Swans, not Gold Coast. Their build is from last two or three drafts. Ours is from the 2015 draft. Big difference. Swans were playing new youngsters similar time we started the build with draftees like Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Silvagni and Cuningham. When I compare how we going developing our team right now we not tracking well as we should be imo. Losing to a side like Gold Coast would feel like losing to a side we got at least a two year head start of when we started on a genuine build mainly via the draft. That's the league wide perspective for me. If I look at the batches of youngsters of similar age it has always been Dogs or Swans I most track our progress compared with. Swans were behind us last year. It would be embarrassing to lose to Gold Coast or people have really slow progress expectations at our club. I've not really got over the loss to Hawks last year when I expected genuine forward steps to happen. From there we been very ordinary and a win over Fyfe less Dockers over here is our only thing to hang on right now. I want a lot more than that from my club. Even Saints I track our progress with more than a team like Gold Coast that had a complete re-set after they had May and Lynch gone.

 

[Blue since 72]

I am intrigued a bit by how many people externally think we'll lose this.

Think Carlton of the last (insert number of years here) or so. "Inconsistent" in the dictionary has a picture of Carlton next to it.

You have to earn sustained favouritism.

 

[Schoonerman]

I know why Suns are almost favourites, it’s purely based on form to date, which is fair enough.

They were level with Eagles at 3/4 time in WA Rd 1, lost by 25, only five fewer scoring shots

Belted Norf Rd 2

Pushed Crows to 10 pts in SA, same number of scoring shots

I think too many here think this will be nice and comfy for us, pretty delusional.

Even without Witts this will be hard going. Sure we beat them easily last yr, but the 4 day break was a huge negative for them.

I’ll be thrilled with a win, any win, thanks very much

Sportsbet are paying $8 fir us to win by 40+
get on it

 

[Bostonian]

If Cottrell gets dropped and Dow stays in the side we have to start questioning those making such decisions.

 

[Bostonian]

Fit or unfit otherwise he offers us more than Levi. Gets in by default. Also like the idea of a mobile forward line where opposition defenders cant run off our forwards.

McGovern is a one trick pony.

Not sure he offers any more than Casboult does.

There's several things Casboult can bring to the team that McGovern doesn't.

That's not to say Casboult should hold his spot but we're a better team with him firing than we are with McGovern if you have to pick between the two.

 

[blue healer]

If Cottrell gets dropped and Dow stays in the side we have to start questioning those making such decisions.

Really doesn't matter what changes we make they'll all be questioned on here.

 

[JustaBattler]

In that scenario I'd much rather go into the match with Pitto, Harry, Mitch, & Jack, with Oscar the sub. Appears like the suns will go with Ballenden (195cm defender with 10 games exp) as ruck and have their CHF Burgess (191cm) and sometimes-tagger Greenwood (191cm) do the pinch hitting. Not sure why we can't go in with Pitto doing his 80% ruck duties and say Jack & Gov split the difference.

Despite Levi's short comings he evidenced increased mobility in the game against Freo V complete immobility against Collingwood and Richmond. If he is on the improve I think we can then go to Teague's favoured 3 contested marking forward set up - and not compromise some emerging regularity regarding center ball structures.

My main concern with forward line stucture is that none of Dow | Murphy| Fogarty| Gibbons | Jack are reliable kicks at goal - and none of them is a good contested mark. We are playing with midfielders in the forward lines and that is why the side rarely scores easy - despite pressure on the improve - most non Harry goals last week were scrappy.

So adding McGovern who knows how to lead and mark and is a better than 50/50 chance of kicking set shots is a no brainer improvement to the forward line.

From a structural point of view - it ends up being a choice between dropping Dow or Jack for a McGovern inclusion. Gibbo offers more general field play than Dow. If Levi gets dropped it will to get him fit for the next two games - if he is fit he shoudl play - I dont beleive in weakening a structure to make way for questionable part timers already filling forward roles.

I think if we sacrifice Levi because thtey have no rucks - we are playing into their hands and levelling teh playing field too much. Better to drop one of the mid/forwards to add a genuine forward who can also mark further upfield on opposiute side of Cripps - since neither Newnes ( in good form) or Cottrell on wings are contested marking players - unless in clear space they dont represent exit options from defense.

 

[Coops93]

If Cottrell gets dropped and Dow stays in the side we have to start questioning those making such decisions.

Cottrell has to play. When my old man messaged me saying Setters out Cottrell in I responded instantly saying that's a really good swap.

Cottrell plays with fire and intent, even if he is a little rough around the edges. That kind of energy though makes up for that lack of polish to a degree. He gets compared to Robinson and it's fair, he's maybe not as rough as Robinson but he plays with a similar wholeheartedness. If he gets 10 touches you can still be sure that he gave his all.