AFL 2021 AFL Round 4

[GROTTO]

Getting on Treacy for sure
Big body key forward , Only reason he hasn’t played is coz he is an angry campaigner and got suspended in the pre season

Lets hope we see Cyclone Treacy because the weather is ominous for Perth.

 

[jikost]

With Petruccelle kicking 4 I'm going with another Italian.

Charlie Lazzaro 2+ @ $7 pb
Charlie Lazzaro 3+ @ $34

 

[Cleric]

Melbourne and Freo for the win tomorrow and odds of 3.16
Threw a lazy 50 on it.

 

[Robo87]

ok.. treacy? fogarty ?


0.5u treacy 2g+ fogarty 2g+ @7.34 sb
0.5u treacy 2g+ fogarty 3g+ @17.05 sb
0.1u treacy 3g+ fogarty 3g+ @46.75 sb

 

[GROTTO]

With Petruccelle kicking 4 I'm going with another Italian.

Charlie Lazzaro 2+ @ $7 pb
Charlie Lazzaro 3+ @ $34

Wrong Italian.

Go Petracca.

Or go Frederick. Once you go black you never go back.

 

[benji21]

on Fyfe 25+ disposals, reckon he plays a bit of mid this week.
also on TAB Keays/Laird 55+ @2.05. North are leaking disposals and with no Sloane they are gonna be the main men

 

[demon_fanatic]

Both games tommorow Melb v geelong and hawks freo it looks like the rain stops safely at least 2 hours before dees game and similar in freo game,just depends how damp the grounds are.

 

[freo_leo29]

I reckon Fyfe plays mid but I thought he would play mid in round 2 aswell and didn't.

The thing is we got slaughtered in the mids last week without him and we now have 3 playing kpf, Taberners, Darcy and Treacy.

Also buying some Fogarty tix, and a cheeky bet on Freddy

 

[Pacman82]

MELB 1-39
Petrac 1+
Miers 1+
@5.25 sb

 

[Kiddbrown]

Why not get real raunchy for shits and giggles

treacy 5+ into the fog 5+
@$7,000

 

[GROTTO]

Glory be, how many degenerate punters are from Adelaide and Freo in here lol.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

With Sloane out, and McDonald + Bonar in, the North vs Crows game becomes intriguing.

The starting midfields are both very young / inexperienced.

When they played last year, O'Brien matched Goldstein for hitouts but Goldstein dominated the clearance work (eight clearances).

Believe it or not, I could see the North mids winning that battle.

And with McDonald and Bonar in, the North defence goes from shambolic to merely poor.

Here's the funny thing, though: North's forwardline may be the worst the AFL has seen in a long time.

Of the players taking the field tomorrow, here are our leading career goalkickers:

1) Ziebell (163 goals) - now playing defence.

2) Goldstein (127 goals) - a ruckman who rarely rests forward (usually played as the sole ruckman).

3) Hall (91 goals) - a midfielder / forward flank.

4) Cunnington (86 goals) - an inside mid.

5) Stephenson (78 goals) - a forward / midfielder (likely to get more midfield minutes tomorrow).

Tell me this isn't the most pitiful forwardline you have seen named to take an AFL field (not including expansion teams).

Look at the eight likely forwards (some rotating through the middle) for this match:

Zurhaar has been playing like a bloke who drinks his own bathwater lately. Capable of kicking five goals, or none.

Larkey seems to be struggling as the main forward target. Playing softer than Brown at his softest.

Mahoney is still a teenager iirc, it is only early days, but so far looks like a an honest battler, nothing more. Four career goals.

Lazarro is a teenager iirc, played a few games, has some zip about him, but has only kicked one AFL goal in his life.

Turner is lucky to be on an AFL list. Has kicked zero goals in three games this season.

Stephenson is a gun but like I said, he will probably get midfield minutes tomorrow.

Thomas could be anything, but in 29 matches so far has never kicked more than two goals in a game.

Scott is imho a good player who will reach 200 games. But still a kid. 20 years old and thin.

What's my point?

North has significantly improved their defence, and will be fielding a midfield which could genuinely beat that of Adelaide (without Sloane).

But who are they going to kick it to? Who is going to slot the goals? It's a complete shemozzle.

I didn't realise how bad it was until last night, because for the first three rounds my focus was on how bad the defence is.

Now that the defence has been improved, I took a look over the forwardline and it is much worse than I thought.

What will I do with this information?

Nothing.

I considered putting some bets on North < X points, and multis with Brodie Smith

33

Brodie Smith

Age

32

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.2

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

500.1

5star

D

17.1

4star

K

12.6

5star

HB

4.5

3star

M

3.5

3star

T

2.3

3star

MG

438.9

5star

D

17.2

5star

K

10.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.6

5star

25+, this kind of thing.

But I've already got enough on the B-Train and the Fogarty Bus and so forth.

If this match ends up something like North 50 vs Adelaide 90, with Smith racking up easy disposals across half back, then next week I will be more willing back my assessment in.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Changed my mind. Decided to put a small bet on the game based on my earlier analysis.



Total North points under 82 (3/3 this season)

Smith >25 touches (did this last week, and should clean up with our shitty forwardline)

Three of our four leading career goalscorers to hit the scoreboard

-> Goldstein AGS (2/3 this season)
-> Hall AGS (1/2)
-> Cunnington AGS (0/1 but kicked a behind last week)

@80s with Lads (boosted)

Why not?

 

[AFLFootyChick]

With Sloane out, and McDonald + Bonar in, the North vs Crows game becomes intriguing.

The starting midfields are both very young / inexperienced.

When they played last year, O'Brien matched Goldstein for hitouts but Goldstein dominated the clearance work (eight clearances).

Believe it or not, I could see the North mids winning that battle.

And with McDonald and Bonar in, the North defence goes from shambolic to merely poor.

Here's the funny thing, though: North's forwardline may be the worst the AFL has seen in a long time.

Of the players taking the field tomorrow, here are our leading career goalkickers:

1) Ziebell (163 goals) - now playing defence.

2) Goldstein (127 goals) - a ruckman who rarely rests forward (usually played as the sole ruckman).

3) Hall (91 goals) - a midfielder / forward flank.

4) Cunnington (86 goals) - an inside mid.

5) Stephenson (78 goals) - a forward / midfielder (likely to get more midfield minutes tomorrow).

Tell me this isn't the most pitiful forwardline you have seen named to take an AFL field (not including expansion teams).

Look at the eight likely forwards (some rotating through the middle) for this match:

Zurhaar has been playing like a bloke who drinks his own bathwater lately. Capable of kicking five goals, or none.

Larkey seems to be struggling as the main forward target. Playing softer than Brown at his softest.

Mahoney is still a teenager iirc, it is only early days, but so far looks like a an honest battler, nothing more. Four career goals.

Lazarro is a teenager iirc, played a few games, has some zip about him, but has only kicked one AFL goal in his life.

Turner is lucky to be on an AFL list. Has kicked zero goals in three games this season.

Stephenson is a gun but like I said, he will probably get midfield minutes tomorrow.

Thomas could be anything, but in 29 matches so far has never kicked more than two goals in a game.

Scott is imho a good player who will reach 200 games. But still a kid. 20 years old and thin.

What's my point?

North has significantly improved their defence, and will be fielding a midfield which could genuinely beat that of Adelaide (without Sloane).

But who are they going to kick it to? Who is going to slot the goals? It's a complete shemozzle.

I didn't realise how bad it was until last night, because for the first three rounds my focus was on how bad the defence is.

Now that the defence has been improved, I took a look over the forwardline and it is much worse than I thought.

What will I do with this information?

Nothing.

I considered putting some bets on North < X points, and multis with Brodie Smith 25+, this kind of thing.

But I've already got enough on the B-Train and the Fogarty Bus and so forth.

If this match ends up something like North 50 vs Adelaide 90, with Smith racking up easy disposals across half back, then next week I will be more willing back my assessment in.

Be careful with Fogarty for multiple goals. He will likely play more mid time to replace Sloane.

 

[GROTTO]

Be careful with Fogarty for multiple goals. He will likely play more mid time to replace Sloane.

I will say one thing about Fog, he is genuinely one of the best kicks for goal at the AFC outside of Tex.

Can and does launch grenades from outside 50 with accuracy.

 

[BloodRet]

I will say one thing about Fog, he is genuinely one of the best kicks for goal at the AFC outside of Tex.

Can and does launch grenades from outside 50 with accuracy.

One thing that worries me is he's as slow as dog s**t and won't get any clear leads at the ball

 

[juss]

I'm on Stephenson .5u 2+ @ $2.70
Fogarty .5u 2+ @ $2.50

Some Tree bloke from Freo I've never heard of in my life, .5u @ $3.10 for 2+

I'm happy enough if one of them win I just about break even, anything more is a nice little reward for not too much risk.

Also backing Demons H2H and contemplating Freo H2H into something else short

 

[Ohh Ok]

Wow he just gets to 20 with 3 seconds to spare in the game!! Lol

Was a big sweat on that one. Was honestly surprised that it only just got in. It looked as though it was a bit wet, but that would usually suit him. 16 disposals in the second half was a little bit more of how I expected him to go for the whole game. If only he did that the whole game...

 

[GROTTO]

One thing that worries me is he's as slow as dog sh*t and won't get any clear leads at the ball

Lost weight over summer and has improved his running times from previous seasons. Has been used in SANFL as mid.

 

[BloodRet]

Lost weight over summer and has improved his running times from previous seasons. Has been used in SANFL as mid.

Good to hear

 

[Ohh Ok]

1.5u - Walker 1st, 2nd or 3rd goalscorer - $2.90 - Ladbrokes
Form player of the comp and clear number one target for the crows. Tex kicked the first in round 1, second and third in round 2, and the fourth and fifth in round 3. 6 of his 17 goals have come in the first quarter equating to 35%.

1u - Sam Berry 15+ disposals - $2.75 - 365
0.5u - Sam Berry 20+ disposals - $14 - 365
Bit speculative. Named on the ball. Is a tough big bodied kid who was a contested ball beast as a junior. With Sloane out it looks as though he’ll be getting a bit of a crack at it today.

2.5u - Oliver under 30.5 disposals - $1.94 - Ladbrokes
Mark O’Connor tag incoming. Last week Oliver was on the receiving end of a De Boer tag which worked quite well for GWS, they were right in the game until De Boer got injured and Oliver was kept to only 6 disposals in the first half. Last week Geelong sent O’Connor to Mitchell who was kept to 24 disposals for the game so I suspect Oliver to be the target this week, in round 2 O’Connor also kept Neale to 16 disposals.

 

[Selim]

big goal kickers multi after last nights win.

Walker 3+
McAdams 2+
Fogarty 2 +
Larkey 1+
Zurhaar 1+
Thomas 1+

odds @ 20

 

[Robo87]

2.5u - Oliver under 30.5 disposals - $1.94 - Ladbrokes
Mark O’Connor tag incoming. Last week Oliver was on the receiving end of a De Boer tag which worked quite well for GWS, they were right in the game until De Boer got injured and Oliver was kept to only 6 disposals in the first half. Last week Geelong sent O’Connor to Mitchell who was kept to 24 disposals for the game so I suspect Oliver to be the target this week, in round 2 O’Connor also kept Neale to 16 disposals.

think its been removed now...

 

[Ohh Ok]

think its been removed now...

It was available at a few places. That was just best price

 

[srobbo]

Zeebull 25+
Laird 30+
Tex 4+
Berry AGS

$14 TAB