AFL 2021 AFL Round 5

[Geeves Train]

Seen it mentioned already but $1.90 Waterman tab seems huge!! $1.33 Sportsbet/Ladbrokes/Pointsbet.

Ryan and Petrecelle out for Eagles so even if Brander plays forward (was 50/50 last game), Waterman will get forward time of Ryan or Petrecelle AND Eagles should have a stupid amount of i50s AND Waterman getting Pies 4th best defender. Bet of the round IMO!!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

We all like a selfish you know what boys and this is RISKY....

Will Hayward

9

Will Hayward

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

9.0

2star

K

4.3

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.4

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

is the logical replacement for Heeney and he's worse than Papley with going for goals...

On for 1, 2, 3, and 4+

 

[jikost]

Fritsch out with a broken hand so Melksham takes his spot and plays deep forward this week.

Melksham 2+ @ $2.40 pb
Melksham 3+ @ $5.50
Melksham 4+ @ $17

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Fritsch out with a broken hand so Melksham takes his spot and plays deep forward this week.

Melksham 2+ @ $2.40 pb
Melksham 3+ @ $5.50
Melksham 4+ @ $17

Yeah this is one I like actually in a game Melbourne should belt them. Also don't mind Petracca for multiples, they may see this game as one where they can rest Petracca forward.

 

[chrisdon16]

Port -4.5
$1.90 Sportsbet


Got Port winning by only 19, but think the bookies have clearly overrated Carlton's last two wins against mediocre teams. Same thing they did with the Suns in round 3. Few key outs for Port but shouldn't make a big difference, all their top tier players still active.

 

[anonymous Derik]

3/4

Oops

 

[burge13]

Will Macrae go forward and Daicos more mid time? Macrae 2+ $19?

 

[GROTTO]

didnt give the medal out. will be awarded in round 15 game apparently.

Its good for those that didnt back Dusty, he would have won it.

 

[footyfan1978]

Giants clearly the pick from early odds

Put a $50 line bet on them.
Swans without Rampe down back look vulnerable to me. Heeney out too.
If Giants do not win, they should not lose by much.

 

[Ohh Ok]

3u - Witherden 20+ disposals - $2.60 - 365

1u - Witherden 25+ disposals - $10 - 365

Getting this one up now as odds won’t last will be into $1.50 before we know it. Will take kick ins at some point tonight and is a great ball user. Has averaged a touch over 20 in his 59 game career and comes into a favourable role in a favourable team.

 

[Ohh Ok]

4u - Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Sheed, Redden all 20+ disposals - $1.95 - TAB

All of these guys 4/4 on this line. Odds way shorter everywhere else. Injuries to teammates gives each of them a more favourable role/greater responsibility.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Put a $50 line bet on them.
Swans without Rampe down back look vulnerable to me. Heeney out too.
If Giants do not win, they should not lose by much.

Also it's twilight we are a much better side in day conditions. I'd be looking at the unders too.

 

[Islanda22]

Any reason WC are $1.31 vs a shithouse Magpies at home?

Yes i know Ryan and Hurn are out but surely they are paying overs

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Any reason WC are $1.31 vs a shithouse Magpies at home?

Yes i know Ryan and Hurn are out but surely they are paying overs

Pies do play well over there I guess. Might have a go on Collingwood at the line myself but honestly who knows

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u - Gaff over 26.55 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport

Going to back Gaff in here for what is a low line for him after a shaky start to the season. Playing at open space of Optus Stadium tonight where he averages 30 from 33 games. Coming up against the pies who give up the most uncontested possessions in the comp, something Gaff will be all about having been the comps highest uncontested possession play from 2015-19 and third in 2020.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u - Duggan over 21.5 disposals - $1.82 - SB
Was waiting for this one to drop down to this number. Backed the overs in round 1 for a collect. Going to take again, much the same as Gaff in terms of collecting uncontested possession, he’ll thrive off this with the width available at Optus tonight. Has been playing on the wing all season and is something he’s built into towards the back end of last season and this preseason. First two games went over this total, second two games went under giving us a nice spot here in a good match up.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

It was in this match last year where Kennedy tore the place up and a few punters on this board collected bigtime.

I mean BIG time.

Here's to hoping it happens again

 

[Islanda22]

2.5u - Gaff over 26.55 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport

Going to back Gaff in here for what is a low line for him after a shaky start to the season. Playing at open space of Optus Stadium tonight where he averages 30 from 33 games. Coming up against the pies who give up the most uncontested possessions in the comp, something Gaff will be all about having been the comps highest uncontested possession play from 2015-19 and third in 2020.

2.5u - Duggan over 21.5 disposals - $1.82 - SB
Was waiting for this one to drop down to this number. Backed the overs in round 1 for a collect. Going to take again, much the same as Gaff in terms of collecting uncontested possession, he’ll thrive off this with the width available at Optus tonight. Has been playing on the wing all season and is something he’s built into towards the back end of last season and this preseason. First two games went over this total, second two games went under giving us a nice spot here in a good match up.

Tailing this

 

[chrisdon16]

Any reason WC are $1.31 vs a shithouse Magpies at home?

Yes i know Ryan and Hurn are out but surely they are paying overs

Got a feeling Buckley tries something new tonight. New game plan, positions etc. Should still get belted but should be interesting.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Got a feeling Buckley tries something new tonight. New game plan, positions etc. Should still get belted but should be interesting.

I hope his secret new strategy is to leave Sheed and Brander unmarked and left to roam free in front of the goals

 

[chrisdon16]

I hope his secret new strategy is to leave Sheed and Brander unmarked and left to roam free in front of the goals

Think they'll try and keep it contested and try to win an arm wrestle. Only way they have any chance of winning. Don't think they'll be able to contain them for long periods though. They just can't score at the moment. Can't see them scoring over 50 against the eagles backs at home.

 

[Geeves Train]

Already posted about Waterman big overs at Tab for anytime goalscorer with Ryan/Petrecelle out. Just saw he is $51 for most goals on tab as opposed to $15 elsewhere!!

 

[NYRB]

Any reason WC are $1.31 vs a shithouse Magpies at home?

Yes i know Ryan and Hurn are out but surely they are paying overs

last year in the Finals, pretty much everybody wrote Collingwood off in that final and they ended up winning in Perth. Similar situation here.....

i will probably sit back and just watch for interest though.

 

[GROTTO]

last year in the Finals, pretty much everybody wrote Collingwood off in that final and they ended up winning in Perth. Similar situation here.....

i will probably sit back and just watch for interest though.

I would be very interested to know the differences between those two teams in that final vs tonight.

Would be very contrasting.

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Collingwood have no forward line to speak off atm.

I wouldn’t be surprised if WC do to Collingwood what the Tigers did to the Saints last night.

My money’s on the Eagles so I hope I’m right.