Competitions The Pieman 2021 - with a difference!

[dogwatch]

Pieman Rule Change

As foreshadowed earlier in the week I have made some amendments to the rules around Pieman substitutes where you have a multiple (3x or 2x) and also to clarify what happens when a player in your Pieman team is the medical substitute.

The full set of rules can be found on the opening page but the changes are also shown below in red/bold. No big deal. Just eliminates some ambiguity in the rules and makes them (in my view) a bit fairer and simpler to follow.

==========================================================================================

• If any of your default players from the previous game aren’t playing or if one or more of your picks is a late withdrawal and you don’t update your entry before match start time you get a substitute player.
• [AMENDMENT 15/4/21] If one of your selected players starts the game as the medical substitute you will automatically be allocated a Pieman substitute from the selected side of 22 as described below, even if the medical substitute ends up playing substantial game time. For consistency and simplicity this is not discretionary - you do not have the option of naming or retaining the medical substitute in your team.
• Substitute players are allocated from the final selected side of 22as follows:
  • [AMENDMENT 15/4/21] If you have selected a player multiple times (2x or 3x) and he doesn't play then you only get one player as the substitute for that player and your substitute has the same multiple. For example you don't get three different players if your 3x multiple doesn't play. You get one player as a 3x.
  • Your substitute is the player not already in your team who scored the most goals last game
  • If there is more than one such player on the same number of goals it is the one with the greater handicap value UNLESS we are deciding between players who kicked zero goals last game, in which case it’s the one with the lowest handicap value. (Yes it sounds weird but there’s a rationale for that.)
  • If they are still equal on handicap value it is the one who has scored most goals over the season so far
  • If they remain equal after all of the above it is the one with the lowest jumper number
  • If the substitute is required in Round 1 (ie where there is no prior game) or if for some reason the above method doesn’t deliver a valid substitute then it’s the player who is NOT in your team who has the lowest handicap value, and then if a further tie-breaker is required it's the one with the lower jumper number
  • We use the same technique over again in any given round for as many times as you need to add substitute players.

 

[BEaston]

Are the handicaps zero sum week to week ?

 

[dogwatch]

Are the handicaps zero sum week to week ?

In what sense? Do you mean as one handicap gets reduced another is increased?

 

[BEaston]

In what sense? Do you mean as one handicap gets reduced another is increased?

Yeah.
If total handicap contracts (or expands) over the season then a goal in round 1 is not worth the same in later rounds. Just having a quick look it seems that handicaps are generally contracting overall (???), which means those that score heavily in earlier rounds are harder to catch later in the season (assumed all else being equal).

 

[dogwatch]

Yeah.
If total handicap contracts (or expands) over the season then a goal in round 1 is not worth the same in later rounds. Just having a quick look it seems that handicaps are generally contracting overall (???), which means those that score heavily in earlier rounds are harder to catch later in the season (assumed all else being equal).

Good question. I appreciate the feedback.

Yes the intent is that the changes will roughly balance out. There is a method to measure it but I have only used rough rule-of-thumb estimates so far. As you’d appreciate it’s not as simple as just adding up all the handicaps.

The biggest reductions have probably beenSmith and Vandermeer who were reduced from the low to mid 20s down to about 16. I explained that one at the time (after Rd 2 I think). English (and to a lesser extent Bont) have shortened as it is clear they are going to have a greater role in goal scoring positions than in 2020. Bruce also shortened a bit as you might expect following his bag of 10 in Rd 3.

Against this, quite a few others have eased but none by dramatic amounts. Whether it balances out with those that have shortened is hard to know. It wouldn’t surprise me if there has been a slight tightening over the four rounds but not enough to have a serious impact on your chances of getting a decent score (ie only around 3-5%).

My approach has been to leave players on a higher handicap until they prove they can get among the goals and then shorten them. However if that causes concerns among the Pieman community maybe I need to approach it differently. For instance Hannan, JUH and Cavarra should all be shorter right now. If I did that I could equally be challenged by someone saying “why have you got JUH at 13? He hasn’t even played a game yet!”

I guess the point is that if you think someone is over the odds we all have the opportunity to jump on before that player shortens. I don’t want to be bound too rigidly to a zero sum approach but it should be one of the broad principles.

As this is the first year of issuing weekly handicaps the process will probably have a few rough edges that need knocking off.

I’ll run some calculations when I get a chance, maybe next week.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Bruce, Naughton, Baz, Treloar x2

please change Treloar x 2 to Treloar & Sweet

 

[SayerTheCreator]

English x2
Libba x2
Bont

 

[BEaston]

Good question. I appreciate the feedback.

Yes the intent is that the changes will roughly balance out. There is a method to measure it but I have only used rough rule-of-thumb estimates so far. As you’d appreciate it’s not as simple as just adding up all the handicaps.

The biggest reductions have probably beenSmith and Vandermeer who were reduced from the low to mid 20s down to about 16. I explained that one at the time (after Rd 2 I think). English (and to a lesser extent Bont) have shortened as it is clear they are going to have a greater role in goal scoring positions than in 2020. Bruce also shortened a bit as you might expect following his bag of 10 in Rd 3.

Against this, quite a few others have eased but none by dramatic amounts. Whether it balances out with those that have shortened is hard to know. It wouldn’t surprise me if there has been a slight tightening over the four rounds but not enough to have a serious impact on your chances of getting a decent score (ie only around 3-5%).

My approach has been to leave players on a higher handicap until they prove they can get among the goals and then shorten them. However if that causes concerns among the Pieman community maybe I need to approach it differently. For instance Hannan, JUH and Cavarra should all be shorter right now. If I did that I could equally be challenged by someone saying “why have you got JUH at 13? He hasn’t even played a game yet!”

I guess the point is that if you think someone is over the odds we all have the opportunity to jump on before that player shortens. I don’t want to be bound too rigidly to a zero sum approach but it should be one of the broad principles.

As this is the first year of issuing weekly handicaps the process will probably have a few rough edges that need knocking off.

I’ll run some calculations when I get a chance, maybe next week.

Yeah definitely. Sorry I wasn't trying to be overly critical, just raising a point I thought of, as I had a quick perusal and it seemed handicaps had reduced rather than increased in general over the season (which might not even be correct as it's just based on a quick look).
I think the general application of zero sum is fair enough for the purpose of the competition, not advocating for exactly 1 for 1 necessarily and yeah that would be difficult to implement with ins/outs each each as well.
I agree with not changing the handicaps until there's runs (or lack thereof) on the board but I think it would be cool to see some of the back end players gain larger handicaps to entice piesters into selecting them, especially for those that have fallen behind in the standings. Just as examples, Duryea and Williams both have kicked 0 goals in 4 weeks but their handicaps haven't changed much at all. Could be cool to have them blow out a bit (similar to how Smith and VDM decreased) which would also help to increase the variation in players selected.
Anyway, I think you're already doing it more or less so yeah, all good !

 

[ScragCity]

Changing my team DW

Sweet x 3
Macrae x 2

 

[StringyDog]

Naughton X2 Bruce X2 Sweet

 

[X_box_X]

Sweet
Bont x2
Naughton x2

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Vandermeer, Dunkley, Treloar, Liberatore, Sweet

 

[DogBites]

Treloar x 3, Dale x 2

 

[dogwatch]

please change Treloar x 2 to Treloar & Sweet

English x2
Libba x2
Bont

Changing my team DW

Sweet x 3
Macrae x 2

Naughton X2 Bruce X2 Sweet

Sweet
Bont x2
Naughton x2

Vandermeer, Dunkley, Treloar, Liberatore, Sweet

Treloar x 3, Dale x 2

Done.

 

[VL3OJ]

Daniel
B Smith
Treloar
English
Dunkley

and thanks dogwatch

vs Brisbane South in the "Kick it long cup"

Dunkley
Treloar
Hunter
Vandermeer
B Smith

 

[dogwatch]

RandomDog has not set the world on fire so far but is confident with this week's selections:

Scott, Hunter, Vandermeer, Duryea. McNeil

 

[dogwatch]

Here are the cut down handicaps following the team announcement:

 

[dogwatch]

And dogwatch's FOMO selections are:

Bont x3, Sweet, B Smith

 

[Northern Dogs]

Treloar, English, Macrae, Sweet x 2, pls

 

[weltschmerz]

Provisionally, I'll go a midfielders theme. Hunter, Treloar, Bont, Dunkley, Libba.

Changing it up - Hunter, Treloar, Dunkley, Libba, and Sweet please.

 

[Wocka]

English, Bont, VDM, Hunter and Sweet.

Thanks DW

 

[dogwatch]

vs Brisbane South in the "Kick it long cup"

Dunkley
Treloar
Hunter
Vandermeer
B Smith

RandomDog has not set the world on fire so far but is confident with this week's selections:

Scott, Hunter, Vandermeer, Duryea. McNeil

View attachment 1104196

And dogwatch's FOMO selections are:

Bont x3, Sweet, B Smith

Treloar, English, Macrae, Sweet x 2, pls

Changing it up - Hunter, Treloar, Dunkley, Libba, and Sweet please.

English, Bont, VDM, Hunter and Sweet.

Thanks DW

Done.

 

[dogwatch]

Everyone loves a debutant. Sixteen of the 39 teams are in and Sweet is easily the hottest choice so far:

 

[Struggle]

Naughton x3
Bont
Hunter

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I’m going to follow suit and copy Scrags selections. Sweet to goal on debut and brother of Finlay to outshine his brother on his debut weekend.

Sweet x 3, Fins brother x 2!!