Prediction Changes: Round 6 Vs North Melbourne + Pre-match discussion

[Snuffaluphagus]

Team, with the game day thread only a few hours away and the sensitive nature of the topic, we are going to let this thread discuss all things do to with the game AND accept the fact not discussing politics would be difficult in this situation.

We will be lenient on political talk, however, it does not mean we’ll allow shitty twitter opinion posts from any South American fluffy horse-like creatures and it does not mean you can degrade / be rude to other posters (sarcastic or otherwise).

Now let’s all go enjoy the fact it is a long weekend discriminating variant and we can do essentially whatever we want tonight

Ya mods
Snuffaluphagus, BeinPurplenGreen, Tonga Bob

 

[Wabjub]

Hall will be out via concussion, he didn't come back due to it so you can assume he failed the 20min test.
Lazzaro will be unlikely with a hamstring and they say Zurhaar is a possible in but he is still 1-3 weeks away.

So far it seems the only common in's with Roos supporters are Xerri and LDU.

 

[Scham]

If the first handful of games is any gauge, the travel will be an issue for them too.

 

[Spirit Level]

Hope we can get a big crowd in for this one!

Perfect night for footy (yay not a Sunday arvo for once) and team on the up

 

[FD2646]

I'm not taking this game lightly, but I hope we smash them into Tasmania for good!

 

[Joao]

I'm not taking this game lightly, but I hope we smash them into Tasmania for good!

Doesn't matter how we fans take it, it's up to the players and coaches to make sure they put in.

Also don't want them down in Tassie. We don't win there very often.

 

[StingBitten]

Did anyone listen to Duff and Quarters today? Normally love that podcast but couldn't agree with the assessment that Treacy should come out- they surmised he didn't contribute enough to warrant reselection and has been a bit overhyped due to his 7 goals in a ressies match.

I know he had a relatively quiet game, there were a few nice touches - but ultimately Taberner, Lobb and Darcy combined for 10 shots on goal. I'm not sure that happens without Treacy drawing out another defender.

I'd be backing him in again and he may have a chance to kick his first this weekend.

 

[Taylor]

Treacy should be dropped for our other tall forward performing in the WAFL demanding selection.

Looks like Sydney will be without Franklin for our game too, if they were ever going to bring him over to Optus anyway.

 

[Big Animal]

Did anyone listen to Duff and Quarters today? Normally love that podcast but couldn't agree with the assessment that Treacy should come out- they surmised he didn't contribute enough to warrant reselection and has been a bit overhyped due to his 7 goals in a ressies match.

I know he had a relatively quiet game, there were a few nice touches - but ultimately Taberner, Lobb and Darcy combined for 10 shots on goal. I'm not sure that happens without Treacy drawing out another defender.

I'd be backing him in again and he may have a chance to kick his first this weekend.

Yep, would have thought it's a great week to have Treacy kick at least a first goal. Certainly no issues with intercepting marking last week with the three talls having to be kept accountable by Adelaide's tall defenders. Same against WC the week after. Hard for McGov and Barrass to go roaming for the intercept marking like previously when they have three very tall contested marking forwards they have to keep accountable. Particularly given we haven't lost any speed with Colyer, Freddie, Schultz and Walters flying around the F50 at high speed (maybe Walters aside).

 

[XXRL]

Treacy in the team means Fyfe can play more midfield. On that basis alone I would keep Treacy in the team.

 

[Wilksyy]

Treacy should be dropped for our other tall forward performing in the WAFL demanding selection.

You’re too cryptic Taylor, is this a vote for Sturty who plays like a tall forward or the fact that Peel have no tall forwards?

 

[Taylor]

You’re too cryptic Taylor, is this a vote for Sturty who plays like a tall forward or the fact that Peel have no tall forwards?

I'm saying if we had another key forward, like a dedicated and fit Hugh Dixon, at Peel kicking goals then Treacy would come out of the team for him - but we don't and I quite like the structure.

But, given Sturt was dropped after a few less than ideal efforts defensively and Treacy wasn't able to put on the same pressure efforts we saw against the Hawks the same fate might be coming for him.

 

[summerthebat]

I don't think Treacy should play, we need more forward 50 pressure and he's not providing a significant aerial threat at this stage.

We are a clear last in the league for tackles inside 50 (averaging 6.2 a game, Melbourne average 14.8!) We're never going to get significant tackle pressure from Lobb, Darcy or Taberner and Walters footspeed from what I can see has dropped off a fair bit this year. Treacy really struggled in that area last week, not for a lack of intent, he just looked cooked by the end of the game.

We're 8th in the league for inside 50's, so being last in the league for tackles inside 50 is a problem that needs to be addressed.

 

[Taylor]

I don't think Treacy should play, we need more forward 50 pressure and he's not providing a significant aerial threat at this stage.

We are a clear last in the league for tackles inside 50 (averaging 6.2 a game, Melbourne average 14.8!) We're never going to get significant tackle pressure from Lobb, Darcy or Taberner and Walters footspeed from what I can see has dropped off a fair bit this year. Treacy really struggled in that area last week, not for a lack of intent, he just looked cooked by the end of the game.

We're 8th in the league for inside 50's, so being last in the league for tackles inside 50 is a problem that needs to be addressed.

It might also mean we take a lot of marks inside fifty and score above average per inside fifty?

 

[CapitalA]

I don't think Treacy should play, we need more forward 50 pressure and he's not providing a significant aerial threat at this stage.

We are a clear last in the league for tackles inside 50 (averaging 6.2 a game, Melbourne average 14.8!) We're never going to get significant tackle pressure from Lobb, Darcy or Taberner and Walters footspeed from what I can see has dropped off a fair bit this year. Treacy really struggled in that area last week, not for a lack of intent, he just looked cooked by the end of the game.

We're 8th in the league for inside 50's, so being last in the league for tackles inside 50 is a problem that needs to be addressed.

Nah give him at least one more crack at the top level it's only been 2 games one with good pressure one with bad...best 2 out of 3. Maybe he finds som space and kicks a couple snags this game?

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Don't see a point dropping Treacy.
If he gets dropped and has a blinder for Peel he's not likely to get recalled for derby where experience counts for so much.
If he stays in and has a massive game, despite it being a derby, he might keep his spot, but could still see himself cut depending on guys like Tucker with experience.
If he stays in and has a quiet game, he can justifiably be given a rest.

Keep him in then make a call after the North game, depending on his form, plus form of others in Peel

 

[Freomaniac]

The more I think about it the more I like Treacy staying in, give him a 5 game stretch and if he's not performing then he goes back to wafl with a better understanding of AFL footy, look how well it's paid off for Meek, he dominated on the weekend.

Taberner got early games for us and looked not upto it but then he took that and went to Peel and was the best key forward at Wafl level.

Treacy must stay for atleast a couple more games

Taberner has been developed gradually and nicely too.

Still remember that 2016 season when he kicked 18 goals and 6 behinds from 17 games. So he had some mixed results playing him up forward that season.

We then gave tabs 7 or 8 games in the 1st half of the season. Tabs then spent the 2nd half of the season in the WAFL and lead peels Goal kicking with 41 goals and got a WAFL premiership medals at peel.

You wondered if tabs played some more dockers games in the 2nd half of that 2017 season.

McCarthy and Kersten might of kicked 30-35 goals each as they wouldn't of been heavily tagged.

Still..... Glad peel got that flag in 2017.

Crazy to think in 2018, 2019 and 2020, tabs had 3 injury riddled seasons in a row and he would of kicked 30 goals in at least 2 of them had he not been injured.

Definately on track to kick 40 goals this season.

 

[Freomaniac]

Treacy in the team means Fyfe can play more midfield. On that basis alone I would keep Treacy in the team.

Yep and Fyfe being in the middle in the final quarter vs the crows on Sunday was one of the main reasons we got over the line for a rare win at Adelaide oval.

As I said, right now, Freo are a medium scoring side kicking 11-14 goals a game.

I won't be surprised if Freo kick something like 11.14.80 or 12.18.90 and secure a 20-30 point win. Thats what I think might happen.

 

[anchor man]

I'm saying if we had another key forward, like a dedicated and fit Hugh Dixon, at Peel kicking goals then Treacy would come out of the team for him - but we don't and I quite like the structure.

But, given Sturt was dropped after a few less than ideal efforts defensively and Treacy wasn't able to put on the same pressure efforts we saw against the Hawks the same fate might be coming for him.

Dedicated and Hugh Dixon do not go hand in hand.
He had his chances but blew them.

 

[armpit]

Yep and Fyfe being in the middle in the final quarter vs the crows on Sunday was one of the main reasons we got over the line for a rare win at Adelaide oval.

As I said, right now, Freo are a medium scoring side kicking 11-14 goals a game.

I won't be surprised if Freo kick something like 11.14.80 or 12.18.90 and secure a 20-30 point win. Thats what I think might happen.

I hope not you maniac. We need a percentage game here, or maybe leave it for the derby. Or both.

 

[ChimpaWompa]

Don't care where Treacy plays next week just so long as he's playing against the eagles and confident. Tabs being double teamed and intercepted all game is something we might actually be able to avoid this time around

 

[armpit]

Don't care where Treacy plays next week just so long as he's playing against the eagles and confident. Tabs being double teamed and intercepted all game is something we might actually be able to avoid this time around

Exactly. Tabs was the second happiest person in the rooms when Treacy got his vest.

 

[Freomaniac]

I hope not you maniac. We need a percentage game here, or maybe leave it for the derby. Or both.

On form we should belt north but this is North Melbourne we are talking about here. I won't underestimate them.

If we can't score 100 points on them this weekend, I seriously won't think we will score 100 points in a game this season.

Again, more likely to kick 11 goals and 20 behinds like we did vs GWS Than 21 goals and 15 behinds like we did vs north round 1 in 2019.

 

[Ysaye]

I think there are a number of reasons Treacy should and (I predict) will get dropped:
(1) He was clearly struggling to keep up at the end of the game and his opponents were running off him in the last quarter. This wasn't the case in his first game (his time on ground was more in his first game 84% versus 76%), and suggests that he is accumulating fatigue across games which is understandable at this stage in his career. Looking at it from a positive perspective, wouldn't it be better to bring him in fresh after a rest from a confidence perspective, rather than have him in the team, him at best get that opportunity to kick that first goal that everyone keeps talking about but then due to fatigue messes up and dents his confidence?;
(2) On balance of statistics versus actuality he had a pretty poor game with no score, only two marks and a single tackle; I can accept that in the first half he dragged his opponent up the ground which may have been useful but he didn't tackle like he did in the first game. You have to consider the fairness across players playing similar roles; Henry and then Sturt also suffered one game dumpings for not doing much (although both scored goals which is more than Treacy has done); if you are a coach you are going to question yourself as to why should Treacy get special treatment over those two? There is a slight counter argument to this which is that Lobb, who played even worse than Treacy, will almost definitely play next week.
(3) I don't think he was the reason that Taberner got the goals he did; Taberner got the opportunities because of the midfield getting the ball in fast and well positioned. Additionally the two "first pick" talls were clearly Taberner and Lobb; Treacy was playing as a high third half forward; the argument about structure is fairly superficial IMO as the role he was playing on the weekend could be played by Sturt or even arguably Meek.

 

[Spirit Level]

Bring in Watson and throw Chapman into the midfield to cover for Cerra?

I'm seriously pissed he's been rubbed out for 4 weeks, makes a tough 4 weeks ahead even tougher

 

[Joao]

Bring in Watson and throw Chapman into the midfield to cover for Cerra?

I'm seriously pissed he's been rubbed out for 4 weeks, makes a tough 4 weeks ahead even tougher

Wouldn't have thought Chapman would be in the next 5 midfielders picked and Watson definitely isn't the next best player at Peel.