It seems that we'll find out soon enough if the constant finishing bottom 3 route works because that is exactly the path North Melbourne is on now. I don't think finishing as low as possible matters as much as the scouting department / list manger that brings them in and then obviously the coaches that polish off all the rough edges once they hit AFL level. I mean look at how many high end draft picks GC and GWS have ruined between themselves over the last 10 years for evidence of this and then look at how many mid to late 1st round picks teams like Hawthorn, Geelong and other recent contenders have groomed to become good / great AFL level players over the years.We'll end where we end.
If it's 3rd from the bottom, that's it.
If it's 9th, that's it.
We take the first round pick we get, and use it as best we can
It's the idea that finishing mid table would be 'a long term disaster' that is just ridiculous.
The culture of winning, and maybe even sneaking a final, is way more valuable than the mythical 'low draft pick flag'...where you sit near the bottom for x number of years, because, apparently, ONLY top 4 picks can help you make a premiership, while a pick 8 doesn't.
Somehow, this strange idea idea that you need to be really sh*t for years, accrue lots of low number picks (but remember, only one per round...there's no priority pick anymore, unless you're an AFL love child)...and then magically spring up to win the flag, seems to have taken hold, despite the fact that it has never happened (or only once, if you include Hawthorn..but that included 2 priority picks, and the ladder climb started in the second year)
Wherever we finish, we get a first round pick. The idea that showing improvement in a year would be "disastrous", because our number pick will be slightly higher is, frankly, nonsense. We improve by virtue and work, not by hoping that if we're are sh*t long enough, they will magically constuct a contending team for us.
If we don't improve, why would good players stay? Why would other players want to come to us?
If we could improve to something like 9th this year, I would be happy...not bemoaning the fact that we really 'needed' to be crap again for our long term hopes
If anything the lower you finish on the ladder it really just allows you to bring in the most talented 17-18 year olds that are still far from finished products who still have a lot of work to be done to become the players that their raw talent promises they will become. Having said all this it has and always will be paramount that no matter where your selecting there's so much more that goes into a young kid being successful than just the talent alone (ie work ethic, team fit, support system, team culture, injury free run and a sh*t load of luck).