Club Focus Collingwood 2021 - Kreuger, Lipinski, Daicos, Murley, Harrison

[Ants]

So let's say a bid comes on Daicos at #2.

That pick is worth 2517 points. In order to match that bid, Collingwood would need to sacrifice picks totalling 2014 points - that's 80 per cent of the points of the bid pick.

Currently, they have the Bulldogs' second-rounder, their own third-rounder as well as Adelaide's third-rounder and Fremantle's third-rounder. Obviously ladder positions can change and those picks can move up and down accordingly but based on current ladder positions those picks are worth 1489 points.

So does that mean that Collingwood would have their 2022 first-rounder deducted to the tune of 500+ points?

If they had another average year in 2022 and ended up with pick 6, they would have 500+ wiped off and it would become pick 13. Or thereabouts.

Is that how it works? Is it compulsory that the earliest picks get downgraded or could they elect to make up the deficit with later picks?

Pretty much. If you have a deficit it is applied to the next year’s pick in the same round as the bid (so in this case their first round pick).

If that pick is already traded out it applies to their next highest pick.
And if he’s bid on at #1 in your scenario the pick will be moved back a lot further than #13.

 

[Rusty Beam]

I think Richmond is ideally placed to accommodate such a deal
We have the following picks
Richmond 1st rounder
Geelong 1st rounder
St kilda 2nd Rounder
Richmond 2nd rounder
Gold Coast 3rd Rounder
Richmond 3rd rounder

Richmond & Collingwood could do a Stoker like trade
Richmond 2021 2nd + gold coast 2021 3rd + 2022 1st for Collingwoods 2022 1st or something to that effect

I wouldn’t think it will be our 1st next year that we’ll be on trading. Unless we want to move it into this years draft.

Our second round pick next year, given it looks like we are in full rebuild, is likely to be in the 19 to very early 20’s range. Which is still a bloody high and valuable pick.

Personally it should form the basis of securing the points for Daicos (and hopefully Dib).

Fundamentally the trade options based on current positions would be something like:

-Richmonds 31 & 45 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Brisbane 45,46 & 57 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Geelongs 34 & 54 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Gold Coast 27 & 43 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round

Obviously there would be later swaps or other involvement of later 2022 picks etc too

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Pretty much. If you have a deficit it is applied to the next year’s pick in the same round as the bid (so in this case their first round pick).

If that pick is already traded out it applies to their next highest pick.
And if he’s bid on at #1 in your scenario the pick will be moved back a lot further than #13.

So North are basically duty-bound to bid on him if for no other reason than to shaft Collingwood.

 

[Northernsoul74]

So North are basically duty-bound to bid on him if for no other reason than to shaft Collingwood.

And he’s the best player.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

How dramatic is the soundtrack in the opening package?

Lol, someone over there listens to the dramatic music Spotify play list. It's great for work I find

 

[Rusty Beam]

So North are basically duty-bound to bid on him if for no other reason than to shaft Collingwood.

Depends on how they approach it.

It’s reported that Adelaide only bid only JUH last year because they viewed him as the clear no1 and decided to retain integrity in their draft process.

If North really view Horne as the clear no1, I think they will select him there too.

Particularly with all the prestige and the individual bonuses.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Give it time; I'm sure there's a high quality player we're looking to offload to upgrade a third round pick.

Seriously though I'm expecting that we'll use our '22 first to trade back into this draft (whether it's for 2x second rounds or a first round pick) after the Daicos bid. It's not really possible to apply a deficit against a pick that doesn't exist yet.

Would be smart to trade out that future first after the daicos bid. The deficit would mean you're out of the second round entirely even if you finished bottom but a natural pick 1 and another likely top 10 selection plus a bunch of junk picks is not the worst draft hand over 2 years

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I wouldn’t think it will be our 1st next year that we’ll be on trading. Unless we want to move it into this years draft.

Our second round pick next year, given it looks like we are in full rebuild, is likely to be in the 19 to very early 20’s range. Which is still a bloody high and valuable pick.

Personally it should form the basis of securing the points for Daicos (and hopefully Dib).

Fundamentally the trade options based on current positions would be something like:

-Richmonds 31 & 45 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Brisbane 45,46 & 57 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Geelongs 34 & 54 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Gold Coast 27 & 43 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round

Obviously there would be later swaps or other involvement of later 2022 picks etc too

I think you'll be much better next year than this so I wouldn't go banking that your future 2nd reflects a bottom 4 situation.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Depends on how they approach it.

Well, sure. It depends what they decide to do. I think that's a given.

It’s reported that Adelaide only bid only JUH last year because they viewed him as the clear no1 and decided to retain integrity in their draft process.

What does that mean?

If North really view Horne as the clear no1, I think they will select him there too.

Particularly with all the prestige and the individual bonuses.

That's all fluff.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Well, sure. It depends what they decide to do. I think that's a given.

What does that mean?

That's all fluff.

So ‘no other reason than to shaft Collingwood’ is your sound reasoning?... Right....

 

[Sweet Jesus]

So ‘no other reason than to shaft Collingwood’ is your sound reasoning?... Right....

Daicos will be top 2 on merit and Collingwood will match any bid. So what's the downside? It's not like they'd be reaching for a kid who'd otherwise slide to 10.

Your suggestion is that North won't bid on Daicos because of "integrity" and "prestige"? Is there anything more pragmatic than that?

Or are you simply filling in a scenario that you want to happen?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

So ‘no other reason than to shaft Collingwood’ is your sound reasoning?... Right....

It's a free hit to make another side worse. One that the will be competing for the narrative of strongest rebuild in a few years. It makes logical sense to do it even if they think Horne is a natural number 1. They're getting Horne anyway.

Their choice is really about whether they want to pump up Hornes tires and say he's the best or try take pressure off him. Given he's going to face a lot of pressure to carry a young midfield going forward I would want to take the opportunity to hang the #1 flag around daicos' neck and privately just tell Horne they did it to hurt Collingwoods draft hand.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Their choice is really about whether they want to pump up Hornes tires and say he's the best or try take pressure off him.

Yeah, I definitely agree with this point.

Pick number one can definitely be a millstone around the neck.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yeah, I definitely agree with this point.

Pick number one can definitely be a millstone around the neck.

Especially going into a struggling team. If he was somehow going to a side where they can be second or third string for a couple of years you'd do it, but I really wouldn't entertain it if I was North

 

[Mofra]

Daicos will be top 2 on merit and Collingwood will match any bid. So what's the downside? It's not like they'd be reaching for a kid who'd otherwise slide to 10.

Your suggestion is that North won't bid on Daicos because of "integrity" and "prestige"? Is there anything more pragmatic than that?

Or are you simply filling in a scenario that you want to happen?

There's the 'selling hope' factor to supporters too which would be a lot easier for North if they just select Horne straight up.
Some draft watchers have Daicos as no 1, other see Horne's two-way running as a factor that just puts him ahead.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

There's the 'selling hope' factor to supporters too which would be a lot easier for North if they just select Horne straight up.

It makes no difference. They still get the player. Why are we pretending it's some big difference whether he comes via pick 1 or pick 2?

Are Adelaide any worse off for not having picked Thilthorpe at #1?

This is pure media-driven silliness.

 

[Mofra]

It makes no difference. They still get the player. Why are we pretending it's some big difference whether he comes via pick 1 or pick 2?

Are Adelaide any worse off for not having picked Thilthorpe at #1?

This is pure media-driven silliness.

Adelaide have a waiting list for memberships, they're not comparable to North right now.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Adelaide have a waiting list for memberships, they're not comparable to North right now.

There's a lot of fluff being passed off as actual reasons in this thread.

 

[citizen-erased]

Hallelulah. Thank heavens someone else can see that.

it's a shame. Game has caught up with a few faster than you'd think it would. Pendles was still sharp as a tack last year.
Will have his good and bad games. And the time was always coming where the Pies had to stop relying on his brilliance.

The list build has been hampered with the access to sharp picks
2017 - Nailed Stephenson, but for reasons only the club knows, chose to move him on
2018 - Quaynor + finishing top 2 meant they needed to move a pick out. Using it for Beams was silly
2019 - See Beams
2020 - Grundy & De Goey signing on costs them Treloar & Stephenson. Opt to move out 2021 1st due to Daicos and load up on 2020.
Net effect here is you lose Treloar in the middle of his peak and Stephenson before he even reaches it.
All of Henry, Macrae, McInnes, Poulter, McMahon and McCreary need to pay off here. 2 will even out the losses, 3 is what you want to see when you rebuild and trade into a draft
2021 - This may hurt. 1st round pick is currently sitting before a Daicos bid unless North bid at 1. Return was Henry + Dogs 2021 2nd. The latter will which get used for Daicos. Long way to go, but pies may rue this one.

New president.
Perhaps a new coach (though there is merit in keeping Bucks)
As good a time as any to kick off a rebuild.

 

[Rusty Beam]

There's a lot of fluff being passed off as actual reasons in this thread.

So your opinions are actual reasons, and everyone else’s are fluff? Righteo.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

So your opinions are actual reasons, and everyone else’s are fluff? Righteo.

If the "opinion" is that pick 1 has some kind of magic power in its own right, as opposed to being a means to an end, then yes that's fluff. And frankly, that's putting it politely.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

AFL 360 spending another 10 minutes backing over the Buckley story because OMG he said he'd like to keep coaching. So tedious.

If Collingwood sacked Buckley, then sure, that's news. That's worthy of discussion. But nothing has happened and they still cover it like it's a major development.

What is the audience for this? Do they think this is interesting to your average fan?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

AFL 360 spending another 10 minutes backing over the Buckley story because OMG he said he'd like to keep coaching. So tedious.

If Collingwood sacked Buckley, then sure, that's news. That's worthy of discussion. But nothing has happened and they still cover it like it's a major development.

What is the audience for this? Do they think this is interesting to your average fan?

Average fan? No. Does it make 10s of thousands of Collingwood members nervous enough to tune in and start having heart palpitations at the dramatic music? Yes.

They'd have more fans actively having a nervous breakdown than there are Suns fans in existence

 

[The 747]

They don't understand Collingwood's draft situation, right? Check out 2.35.

Yeah I was watching that thinking er what?

 

[TigerTime88]

I wouldn’t think it will be our 1st next year that we’ll be on trading. Unless we want to move it into this years draft.

Our second round pick next year, given it looks like we are in full rebuild, is likely to be in the 19 to very early 20’s range. Which is still a bloody high and valuable pick.

Personally it should form the basis of securing the points for Daicos (and hopefully Dib).

Fundamentally the trade options based on current positions would be something like:

-Richmonds 31 & 45 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Brisbane 45,46 & 57 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Geelongs 34 & 54 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round
- Gold Coast 27 & 43 for Collingwood 2022 2nd round

Obviously there would be later swaps or other involvement of later 2022 picks etc too

This draft is apparently stacked though. I doubt we would trade away picks this year for say a 10 pick upgrade next year as the quality of player at those later picks is probably better this year than the earlier pick next year.