Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

[LeverPuller]

Has been extremely good though. Will get noticed if he plays on and beats that curly headed full forward of yours tomorrow

Nathan Jones was extremely good for three years and didn’t make the squad. For bottom four sides, especially bottom 2, the players just don’t get a look in. McKay might well be a world beater with rubbish around him but because the team is rubbish he will struggle. AA selectors go for the top teams.

 

[Toump Ass]

Keath v May, per game averages.

<BLAH BLAH BLAH RUBBISH RUBBISH RUBBISH>

Never let the truth get in the way of a good yarn though...

So anyway I adjusted Stevie May's stats to remove the game where he was injured which would VERY OBVIOUSLY affect his "per game average" and now I'm going to rub those statistics in your face and really enjoy it. So here we go:

Stevie May has more disposals, even when you remove his kick-ins.
Stevie May has more inside 50's, ergo he is better offensively.
Stevie May averages an extra one more score involvement per game, which is considerable given the Demons have only kicked over 100 points once this season, compared to the Dogs who have done it four times, including an absolute slaughter of North Melbourne. Ergo, May is not just better offensively, but he is much better offensively, thank you very much.
Stevie May has more Effective Disposals.
Stevie May is averaging twice as many meters gained per game.
Stevie May is only averaging less intercept marks (.25!) because the Gold Coast Suns very kindly kicked it directly to Keath a dozen times.
Stevie May is averaging more AFL fantasy points, more Supercoach points, and he is averaging these against better sides.
Stevie May has been involved in more than twice as many 1 v 1 contests as Keath, despite playing 2 and 3/4 games less than Keath.

In summary: when you don't deliberately misrepresent the statistics, like you have done, it is very clear that May is having a better season, statistically, than Keath.

(...and what was Keath doing when Houli was lining up for a goal last night?!? wtf!)

 

[HairyO]

Jiath is a gem.

.First player picked on the backline for mine. Plays in an ordinary team and makes them better.

Its clear noone knows what he is going to do but I wonder if he knows.

He has brought our team to life with his speed. Last year he was meek but now he is fearless. He is making mistakes but resets and goes again. And again.

Id still pick a key defender first but he would be my next pick. Then Day. But Im biased.

 

[SplintWhisky]

Keath v May, per game averages.

Spoils: 4.8 v 3.6
% of 1v1's lost: 16.7% v 27.3%
Intercept Marks: 3.3 v 2.6
Contested Marks: 1.5 v 0.6
Tackles: 2.7 v 0.8
Pressure Acts: 7 v 4.2
Intercept Possessions: 8.2 v 6.4
Turnovers: 1.8 v 3.8
Disposal Efficiency: 86% v 77.1%

Never let the truth get in the way of a good yarn though...

If a team averages a loss rate of 33% of their 1v1 contests in the back half then that pretty much excludes all their backline players from contention. Your backline has been saved by your mids who are just no 1 by a country mile. However, if the ball makes it past halfway then your backs crumble.

Honestly May and Lever are pretty much locks for AA at the moment.

 

[TigerTime88]

Bolton has to be in the squad.

 

[Toump Ass]

If a team averages a loss rate of 33% of their 1v1 contests in the back half then that pretty much excludes all their backline players from contention. Your backline has been saved by your mids who are just no 1 by a country mile. However, if the ball makes it past halfway then your backs crumble.

Honestly May and Lever are pretty much locks for AA at the moment.

I haven't watched enough games to have an informed opinion this year. But FWIW I thought May was better performed last year than right now.

That said, I'd be absolutely gobsmacked if there's many better defenders than Lever at the moment.

 

[Virgin Dog]

A lot of posters bringing up Disposal Efficiency (DE) in their comparisons between defenders. Already a pretty much useless stat, it becomes even more so when taking defenders into account. Often key defenders will have a very high DE % because a lot of their kicks are simple sideways kicks under little pressure. Compare this to midfielders under much greater pressure, or defenders that generally take on far riskier and more difficult kicks.

Here's Jack Lukosius on the left, and Alex Keath on the right. Lukosius is going at 69.3% DE this year compared to Keath at 85.8%. This isn't a dig at Keath either, but I'd be hard-pressed to believe he is a better kick than Lukosius, who is known for his precise long kicking that can open up the ground for quick transitions into his team's forward 50. Naturally, despite a lower DE, Lukosius averages 5.2 score involvements to Keath's 2.5, but also has more clangers and turnovers. Obviously, a lot of this is due to significantly different defensive roles, but there are a number of average kicks in defence (Geelong has a lot - Kolodjansji, Blicavs etc.) who generally have high DE, while some of the best kicks out from defence have a relatively low DE.

View attachment 1115006

Your point is absolutely valid and I fully agree, but Keath probably isn't the best example to use. While Luko is the better kick, Keath is elite for his disposal when compared to other KPDs (not just using the DE stat)

 

[WallyStringhaus]

So anyway I adjusted Stevie May's stats to remove the game where he was injured which would VERY OBVIOUSLY affect his "per game average" and now I'm going to rub those statistics in your face and really enjoy it. So here we go:

Stevie May has more disposals, even when you remove his kick-ins.
Stevie May has more inside 50's, ergo he is better offensively.
Stevie May averages an extra one more score involvement per game, which is considerable given the Demons have only kicked over 100 points once this season, compared to the Dogs who have done it four times, including an absolute slaughter of North Melbourne. Ergo, May is not just better offensively, but he is much better offensively, thank you very much.
Stevie May has more Effective Disposals.
Stevie May is averaging twice as many meters gained per game.
Stevie May is only averaging less intercept marks (.25!) because the Gold Coast Suns very kindly kicked it directly to Keath a dozen times.
Stevie May is averaging more AFL fantasy points, more Supercoach points, and he is averaging these against better sides.
Stevie May has been involved in more than twice as many 1 v 1 contests as Keath, despite playing 2 and 3/4 games less than Keath.

In summary: when you don't deliberately misrepresent the statistics, like you have done, it is very clear that May is having a better season, statistically, than Keath.

(...and what was Keath doing when Houli was lining up for a goal last night?!? wtf!)

There's a lot of what ifs in your statement bud. If Gold Coast hadn't kicked it to Keath, if Dogs hadn't kicked 100 points so many times, if May hadn't got injured.

There are lots of different rating systems mate. Here's one from the AFL site that has Keath in front;



My point is, there are those making out as if May is an A grade superstar and Keath is just a B grade plodder. Whatever way you look at it that's just not the case. They are actually pretty close in comparison.

And using one missed spoil in an attempt to strengthen your argument is pathetic. Look at the game as a whole.


Please note where Keath was rated in contrast to his direct opponent in Jack Riewoldt.

Can we move on now? I've made my point and Dees supporters have made theirs. Both guns and both having outstanding seasons.

 

[Toump Ass]

There's a lot of what ifs in your statement bud.

And there is a lot of rubbish in your statements pal.

No if's, buts, or maybes: Stevie Man has more score involvements than Alex Keath in a team scoring a lot less. Therefore he is (much) better offensively.

There are lots of different rating systems mate. Here's one from the AFL site that has Keath in front

I've never heard of this rating system chum.

Now buddy because the point seems to escape you, I'm going to spell it out for you again:
Comparing averages when one player was removed from the game after a quarter is disingenuous and skews the data and this was pointed out to you and you refused to acknowledge it because it made your arguments look silly and demonstrated that statistically Stevie May is better than Alex Keath.

Can we move on now?

No mate.

First I want you to acknowledge that your crappy statistical arguments are skewed because Steven May was taken off injured.

And then I want you to admit that you have lied and don't know what you are talking about.

Then I'm happy to move on. Maybe.
I'm really insecure so maybe not though.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

May is light years better than Keath. Can think of 10 KPD id take ahead of Keath given the choice

 

[Trav 20]

May is light years better than Keath. Can think of 10 KPD id take ahead of Keath given the choice

You're not allowed to use your eyes, mate, you have to use stats.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

And there is a lot of rubbish in your statements pal.

No if's, buts, or maybes: Stevie Man has more score involvements than Alex Keath in a team scoring a lot less. Therefore he is (much) better offensively.

I've never heard of this rating system chum.

Now buddy because the point seems to escape you, I'm going to spell it out for you again:
Comparing averages when one player was removed from the game after a quarter is disingenuous and skews the data and this was pointed out to you and you refused to acknowledge it because it made your arguments look silly and demonstrated that statistically Stevie May is better than Alex Keath.

No mate.

First I want you to acknowledge that your crappy statistical arguments are skewed because Steven May was taken off injured.

And then I want you to admit that you have lied and don't know what you are talking about.

Then I'm happy to move on. Maybe.
I'm really insecure so maybe not though.

There'd really be no point to any statistical analysis if we had to sift through every game and adjust it due to variables. Dusty might have gone on to have 15 possies and 5 goals in the last quarter against the Dees last week and inspire a comeback victory but he didn't because he was injured. And in 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 years time fans will look back and say that Dusty averaged x amount of possessions and kicked x amount of goals in 2021. No one will be saying "yeah but he was concussed in that one game so it skews the data and its irrelevant."

I love how if someone brings another player into the conversation it automatically means that they must be disrespecting the other. My opinion is that Keath AND May are the two best KPD's going around at the moment.

 

[FreoFan85]

So anyway I adjusted Stevie May's stats to remove the game where he was injured which would VERY OBVIOUSLY affect his "per game average" and now I'm going to rub those statistics in your face and really enjoy it. So here we go:

Stevie May has more disposals, even when you remove his kick-ins.
Stevie May has more inside 50's, ergo he is better offensively.
Stevie May averages an extra one more score involvement per game, which is considerable given the Demons have only kicked over 100 points once this season, compared to the Dogs who have done it four times, including an absolute slaughter of North Melbourne. Ergo, May is not just better offensively, but he is much better offensively, thank you very much.
Stevie May has more Effective Disposals.
Stevie May is averaging twice as many meters gained per game.
Stevie May is only averaging less intercept marks (.25!) because the Gold Coast Suns very kindly kicked it directly to Keath a dozen times.
Stevie May is averaging more AFL fantasy points, more Supercoach points, and he is averaging these against better sides.
Stevie May has been involved in more than twice as many 1 v 1 contests as Keath, despite playing 2 and 3/4 games less than Keath.

In summary: when you don't deliberately misrepresent the statistics, like you have done, it is very clear that May is having a better season, statistically, than Keath.

(...and what was Keath doing when Houli was lining up for a goal last night?!? wtf!)

Before i get flamed... i agree Steven May is having a better season.... now we got that out the way...

Don't look too highly into those stats. In round 1 we butchered the footy 1000000 times to both him and Lever. We would have made Caleb Daniel look like a fantastic Key Defensive Back. Could be a reason for a fair bit of inflation

 

[nut]

Liam Baker in the mix???

Na Richmond will get ignored again by a club with 5 champion data points super stars.

 

[Toump Ass]

There'd really be no point to any statistical analysis if we had to sift through every game and adjust it due to variables.

I think it's fair to remove an incomplete game from a per game average. But I'm just poking fun is all- I honestly haven't seen enough of Keath to make a judgement. Hopefully your team get a few more (deserved) prime-time slots so I can get a proper look at him.

Clearly he's doing a lot right though because aside from a half of football you've been the best team in it so far.

 

[Toump Ass]

Before i get flamed... i agree Steven May is having a better season.... now we got that out the way...

Don't look too highly into those stats. In round 1 we butchered the footy 1000000 times to both him and Lever. We would have made Caleb Daniel look like a fantastic Key Defensive Back. Could be a reason for a fair bit of inflation

Yeah I'm not worried about stats. I don't think Steven May has had a massive influence on our team. Lever and Salem on the other hand have been brilliant.

 

[Richo83]

There's a lot of what ifs in your statement bud. If Gold Coast hadn't kicked it to Keath, if Dogs hadn't kicked 100 points so many times, if May hadn't got injured.

There are lots of different rating systems mate. Here's one from the AFL site that has Keath in front;

My point is, there are those making out as if May is an A grade superstar and Keath is just a B grade plodder. Whatever way you look at it that's just not the case. They are actually pretty close in comparison.

And using one missed spoil in an attempt to strengthen your argument is pathetic. Look at the game as a whole.

Please note where Keath was rated in contrast to his direct opponent in Jack Riewoldt.

Can we move on now? I've made my point and Dees supporters have made theirs. Both guns and both having outstanding seasons.

Who has Keith being playing on this season? Mihocek, Larkey, Daniher, the suns' King, Riccardi and Riewoldt. Riewoldt and Daniher are good jobs but the rest are either young or not very good. Lynch and Riewoldt rarely if ever both play well in a game, and Richmond targeted Lynch knowing his opponent lacked the height and size.

What I saw from the bulldogs last night is a defense which doesn't play well as a system, which all good defenses do. They played to their roles, but as a team defense, it was poor. And Keath is part of that group who are supposed to defend as a group. No-one really chopped out to help Lynch's opponent.

On the other hand, what I've seen from Melbourne is a defense which defends one-on-one well, but also defends well as a team and doesn't just do their own thing. Melbourne are exposing their defenders deliberately to ensure they have more players around the ball and trusting their backline to get it done and they're doing so.

I also don't know why we need to consider the likes of Keath who are still hidden at times and are protected by a good midfield when you have players like Grimes who a) defends smalls and talls and b) helps out his fellow defenders by doing team defense. I'm not sure if Grimes should be in the team, as there may be other players who are playing better, but I'd take Grimes over Keath this season.

 

[Richo83]

I'm also wary of using AFL player ratings to judge key backs as I think a lot of what makes a key backman great isn't counted as stats, like not losing contests, shepherding, coming across to provide team defence etc. Or, if it is, I'd like to see how much of it is counted by AFL player ratings and how because I find their ratings of key backs and small defenders to be worse than their ratings of other positions.

And even if we're using AFL player ratings, Keath was the 13th rated key back after six rounds anyway. Andrews was number one and Lever was number two. Doedee was third. I don't mind Keath but I don't see why he'd be in the team or the squad. According to AFL player ratings, he is performing slightly above Brennan Cox (10.5 to 10.1 average game rating). Dogs fans, do you believe that (be honest)? Because if you don't, you shouldn't be relying on AFL player ratings.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

I'm also wary of using AFL player ratings to judge key backs as I think a lot of what makes a key backman great isn't counted as stats, like not losing contests, shepherding, coming across to provide team defence etc. Or, if it is, I'd like to see how much of it is counted by AFL player ratings and how because I find their ratings of key backs and small defenders to be worse than their ratings of other positions.

And even if we're using AFL player ratings, Keath was the 13th rated key back after six rounds anyway. Andrews was number one and Lever was number two. Doedee was third. I don't mind Keath but I don't see why he'd be in the team or the squad. According to AFL player ratings, he is performing slightly above Brennan Cox (10.5 to 10.1 average game rating). Dogs fans, do you believe that (be honest)? Because if you don't, you shouldn't be relying on AFL player ratings.

The point wasn't to rely on player ratings it was to point out that there are different ways to measure statistics. Supercoach points might rate a player higher, whereas player ratings tell a different story.

I tried to look past this and drill down into things like defensive 1v1 losses %, defensive pressure acts, intercept marking, defensive tackles, etc, to measure Keath's impact which seemed to fall on deaf ears. I'm happy with Keath as are our supporters and as is our coach who singled Keath out for praise in his presser ( a rarity after a loss)...i don't agree with your assessment of our defensive system either but that's a discussion for another thread.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

I think it's fair to remove an incomplete game from a per game average. But I'm just poking fun is all- I honestly haven't seen enough of Keath to make a judgement. Hopefully your team get a few more (deserved) prime-time slots so I can get a proper look at him.

Clearly he's doing a lot right though because aside from a half of football you've been the best team in it so far.

And hopefully you get to experience the joy we felt 5 years ago in breaking the drought...all the best

 

[GatesOfHell]

Yeah I'm not worried about stats. I don't think Steven May has had a massive influence on our team. Lever and Salem on the other hand have been brilliant.

Surely you jest re May. His presence has been immense for us. Has successfully nullified M.King, T.Hawkins and T.Lynch among others so far and provided plenty of rebound with 20 touches per game. Some beautiful long laser-like kicking in there as well on that left peg, splitting open options up the ground. Everyone in the back half walks 10cm taller with him in the side as well with the added mongrel he brings. Third most important player in our team after Gawn and Tracc for mine.

Keath is decent but he had his bottom handed to him by Lynch last night. Stats don’t tell the story of how a backman can cope with certain gorilla forwards in big games. No-one can hold a candle to May in this regard as of round 7.

 

[Toump Ass]

Surely you jest re May. His presence has been immense for us. Has successfully nullified M.King, T.Hawkins and T.Lynch among others so far and provided plenty of rebound with 20 touches per game. Some beautiful long laser-like kicking in there as well on that left peg, splitting open options up the ground. Everyone in the back half walks 10cm taller with him in the side as well with the added mongrel he brings. Third most important player in our team after Gawn and Tracc for mine.

Keath is decent but he had his bottom handed to him by Lynch last night. Stats don’t tell the story of how a backman can cope with certain gorilla forwards in big games. No-one can hold a candle to May in this regard as of round 7.

May's played four games, and was only on Hawkins for a quarter. Over the course of the season so far I don't think he's been as influential as Lever or Salem, who are both Top 10 I think in the coaches votes?

Love the guy though, don't get me wrong.

 

[nut]

Can we change the name of the thread to The rolling champion data love fest 22.

 

[JP2]

Tough one at the moment, lots of competition for spots. This is what I've gone with:

B: Young (Freo) Sweet (WB) Hooker (Ess)
HB: Hird (Ess) Shiel (Ess) Neale (Bris)
C: Madgen (Coll) Sheed (WC) Swallow (GC)
HF: Cox (Coll) Cumming (GWS) Darling (WC)
F: Wood (WB) Ryder (St. K) Moore (Coll)
Foll: Stringer (Ess) Long (St. K) Lever (Melb)
Int: Cox (Ess) Byrnes (St. K) Sharp (Bris) Payne (Bris) Owies (Carl)

Jordon Butts and Marty Hore unlucky.

 

[The Donners]

Tough one at the moment, lots of competition for spots. This is what I've gone with:

B: Young (Freo) Sweet (WB) Hooker (Ess)
HB: Hird (Ess) Shiel (Ess) Neale (Bris)
C: Madgen (Coll) Sheed (WC) Swallow (GC)
HF: Cox (Coll) Cumming (GWS) Darling (WC)
F: Wood (WB) Ryder (St. K) Moore (Coll)
Foll: Stringer (Ess) Long (St. K) Lever (Melb)
Int: Cox (Ess) Byrnes (St. K) Sharp (Bris) Payne (Bris) Owies (Carl)

Jordon Butts and Marty Hore unlucky.

I think it’s missing Sidebottom (Coll) Brown (Ade) Berry (Bris)