Prediction Changes v Carlton Round 8

[charcoalchicken]

I don't understand all the commotion about dropping West.

He's still just an 9-gamer with very little continuity in his career, and only 4 games in 2020 with no VFL. If we can give McNeil and Scott generous runs of games to show what they can produce at AFL level then surely West is just as deserving.

Have McNeil or Scott played as badly as west did last night? West was close to w.o.g, he probably was tbh
He had a negative affect to our performance last night, was one of richmonds better players if anything
So I completely understand the calls for him being dropped

 

[W W Biscuit]

I'm re-thinking my team selections (and I'll no doubt have another re-think after the VFL game ... and yet again after the injury report ).

I still think English must come in if he passes all concussion tests and there are no lingering doubts.

But the way we were monstered in the midfield last night showed how much we need Dunkley there. Every coach will have taken notes on that. Wallis is no Dunkley but he's clearly the nearest thing we've got among our shallow reserves. He is hard-bodied, experienced and team oriented. Less likely to get lost under pressure out there than some of the alternatives.

He just needs to show he's up for it with a strong midfield performance in the VFL today.

I was out last night and totally missed the game. And I’m not sure that I want to go within five miles of the replay. But I would have bet that Richmond without Martin versus Dogs without Dunkley would have given us a clear advantage in the midfield, given our much talked about depth of quality in there. Do we just not bat as deep as we think we do? Talk of our midfield being schooled last night is baffling without having witnessed the contest. Or did we just have an off night?

 

[Al dente]

Yep the writing was on the wall when everyone said they were happy with team selection.

We need more selection night melts. It's the only way we'll win games.

yep, i was really happy with the ins until mid way through the second quarter,

i dont think ive ever seen a set of ins perform so badly (lipinski was ok)

 

[dogwatch]

I was out last night and totally missed the game. And I’m not sure that I want to go within five miles of the replay. But I would have bet that Richmond without Martin versus Dogs without Dunkley would have given us a clear advantage in the midfield, given our much talked about depth of quality in there. Do we just not bat as deep as we think we do? Talk of our midfield being schooled last night is baffling without having witnessed the contest. Or did we just have an off night?

Wouldn't mind hearing what others think. Our much vaunted midfield was good up to half time but after that they were outdone by a bunch of players who are capable but not normally regarded as stars of the game (Cotchin might have been a star once).

• Macrae kept doing what he does.
• Libba who was so dominant in the first half went quiet.
• Plenty have commented on Bont's game - good stats perhaps but very low productive output by his standards.
• Smith got a lot of possessions but did no damage with them - lacked composure.
• Treloar looked lost without his bestie. He did OK but far from dominant.
• Lipinski was so-so. Not a lost cause but he was shown up for lack of pace and physicality.

Our handball game disappeared under pressure. It probably didn't help that any time we looked like steadying there was an undisciplined (or perplexing) free kick given away and Richmond just held the ball in their forward half.

Yes it was an off night and I hope they will respond better next time there's intense pressure but for me the importance of Dunkley (and a second ruck) was also underlined. TBH I think we missed Dunkley and English far more than they missed Dusty, but we shouldn't take credit away from them for how well they covered Dusty's absence. They seemed to have a very clear strategy and executed it well especially after half time. By contrast we might have gone into half time a bit complacent. We lost our discipline and then forgot our lines in the third quarter.

 

[Dog 36]

Out:
Schache - His game isn't up for AFL level. Been in the system long enough and may have just stamped his papers tonight

JJ - Great player for the club but needs to be dropped. Whether he needs to get some form or just figure out if he has regressed.

IN:
English - Crucial!

Young - We notoriously struggle with Carltons talls. Keith will need help with McKay, Casboult and McGovern. Who else can do it?

Ordinary night for us but players won't find form if we drop 4-5 each week. I think McNeil may possibly sneak in, not sure who for

Yes McKay and Co have taken to cleaners too often so let’s see what our coaching staff do so it does not eventuate again.
Getting caught out by surprise won’t be an excuse

 

[Struggle]

Do people on here realise Buku Khamis is 189 cm?

Cordy is 191. The extra pace and athleticism is worth a shot but i wouldn't be expecting him to be able to compete body on body at all

 

[Doggies_13]

Wouldn't mind hearing what others think. Our much vaunted midfield was good up to half time but after that they were outdone by a bunch of players who are capable but not normally regarded as stars of the game (Cotchin might have been a star once).

• Macrae kept doing what he does.
• Libba who was so dominant in the first half went quiet.
• Plenty have commented on Bont's game - good stats perhaps but very low productive output by his standards.
• Smith got a lot of possessions but did no damage with them - lacked composure.
• Treloar looked lost without his bestie. He did OK but far from dominant.
• Lipinski was so-so. Not a lost cause but he was shown up for lack of pace and physicality.

Our handball game disappeared under pressure. It probably didn't help that any time we looked like steadying there was an undisciplined (or perplexing) free kick given away and Richmond just held the ball in their forward half.

Yes it was an off night and I hope they will respond better next time there's intense pressure but for me the importance of Dunkley (and a second ruck) was also underlined. TBH I think we missed Dunkley and English far more than they missed Dusty, but we shouldn't take credit away from them for how well they covered Dusty's absence. They seemed to have a very clear strategy and executed it well especially after half time. By contrast we might have gone into half time a bit complacent. We lost our discipline and then forgot our lines in the third quarter.

I think Martin running out of gas by half time hurt our midfield. On top of that Richmond raised their pressure around the ball and also pushed a forward or two up to the stoppage to congest the stoppages. Less space and more pressure led to us being unable to handball through and as a result we hacked the ball forward to their zone or handballed backwards again and again before turning it over which meant when we lost the ball it was around the Richmond forward arc.

 

[TedDougChris]

Wouldn't mind hearing what others think. Our much vaunted midfield was good up to half time but after that they were outdone by a bunch of players who are capable but not normally regarded as stars of the game (Cotchin might have been a star once).

• Macrae kept doing what he does.
• Libba who was so dominant in the first half went quiet.
• Plenty have commented on Bont's game - good stats perhaps but very low productive output by his standards.
• Smith got a lot of possessions but did no damage with them - lacked composure.
• Treloar looked lost without his bestie. He did OK but far from dominant.
• Lipinski was so-so. Not a lost cause but he was shown up for lack of pace and physicality.

Our handball game disappeared under pressure. It probably didn't help that any time we looked like steadying there was an undisciplined (or perplexing) free kick given away and Richmond just held the ball in their forward half.

Yes it was an off night and I hope they will respond better next time there's intense pressure but for me the importance of Dunkley (and a second ruck) was also underlined. TBH I think we missed Dunkley and English far more than they missed Dusty, but we shouldn't take credit away from them for how well they covered Dusty's absence. They seemed to have a very clear strategy and executed it well especially after half time. By contrast we might have gone into half time a bit complacent. We lost our discipline and then forgot our lines in the third quarter.

I think two things happened - we massively lost in the ruck contests due to Martin either running out of gas or having an off night - and Richmond had much more explosiveness in the midfield. When Richmond won the ruck contests and you have burst players running through there - it was next to impossible to slow down the play and keep the ball moving forward.

 

[weltschmerz]

Sweet’s putting his hand up to come in next week.

 

[LittleG]

With Martin cooked by half time, he needs to play fewer games OR he becomes a bench warmer.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Cordy was shocking against Richmond. He needs to come back out, and I struggle to see a future for him in the seniors. For anyone leaning towards wanting Young back in the side, I highly recommend you go onto the Kayo stream of the VFL game. Go to the 2:50:36 mark, and keep an eye on Young. An AFL standard defender would NEVER be caught standing around scared of the ball drop in the defensive 50.

https://kayosports.com.au/event/sport!afl/event-n-bullants-v-footscray!111212

I genuinely would rather we go in short and have Wood take the 2nd KPD than to have Young back in after that effort.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

He's quality and he'll be busting to show what he's got. Even if he's gassed after two quarters he'll offer more than Schache did last night.

It'll also defuse a lot of tension and unnecessary focus (notice Bevo getting tetchy about the constant JUH questions?) If he only has 6 touches and kicks a goal or two then the media will leave him alone for a while. (Of course if he kicks five ... )

And if he ends up going back to the twos after a couple of games it will have been a good experience for him. He'll know what the real thing is like. As we have seen there's a big chasm between levels: last week's VFL stars - Lipinski, West and Schache - looked very ordinary last night.

You really think so? I think the scrutiny could be even more intense - you know how the media crave a story or a narrative. The expectation will be through a roof, Tom Boyd-esque. I know he has to come in at some stage and next week could be as good a time as any. But as Bevo said, they want to set him up for success so I hope he really is ready.

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

I don't understand all the commotion about dropping West.

It might have something to do with 5 disposals (all kicks). 0.2 and 0FF and 4FA (including a 50).
He was hungry and aggressive, though undisciplined.
His set shot from near 50, should have been passed to a shorter option (Naughton) over the top.
He might be worth another week, though he had a stinker.

 

[Sharkey66]

It might have something to do with 5 disposals (all kicks). 0.2 and 0FF and 4FA (including a 50).
He was hungry and aggressive, though undisciplined.
His set shot from near 50, should have been passed to a shorter option (Naughton) over the top.
He might be worth another week, though he had a stinker.

would have liked to see him get a run through the middle at some point last night though.

 

[DognBones]

After watching our VFL game today, unfortunately we will be forced to keep changes to a minimum.
Sweet dominated the ruck as you would expect against a first gamer.
Weightman was very lively but kicked like a senior forward - very wasteful.
They were the best in a scrappy, uninspiring game. I'll think some more about the Ins and Outs.

 

[Doggies_13]

Sticking with my thoughts on changes last night.
Out: west schache JJ Scott (if injured)
In: English Garcia Weightman McNiel

B: wood keath duryea
HB: crozier cordy dale
C : Smith Libba Treloar
HF: Weightman Naughton Hunter
F: English Bruce Garcia
R: Martin Bont Macrae
Int: Daniel Hannan Lipinski McNiel

 

[Oliver G]

For those that missed my summary in the VFL thread...

Wallis played almost exclusively in the midfield today and was very impressive with 28 disposals, 16 contested, 11 clearances and 9 score involvements.

Weightman played probably his best VFL game to date with 2 goals (6 shots), 11 marks (6 inside 50) and 117 ranking points.

Sweet was outstanding with 11 hitouts to advantage, 4 shots at goal, 11 contested possessions and 150 ranking points.

Butler and Garcia have to be close to senior selection and personally I think Young has to come back in for Cordy with 8 intercepts, 4 intercept marks, 7 spoils and 81% disposal efficiency. Khamis also has to debut in the next few weeks he just continues to impress and has incredible speed exitingDd50.

Ugle-Haggan finished with 10 disposals, 1 goal, 2 contested marks, 5 score involvements, 1 tackle

Bedendo is starting to impress kicking 3 goals from 4 shots and can see him fit nicely in our 22 once he puts a bit of weight. If you haven't already check out some of his marks from U19 level.

You can find most stats below including a player table but beware that final stats won’t be pushed until Monday so some stats may change...

Disposal Efficiency
FO: 71%
NB: 70%

Kicking Efficiency
FO: 67%
NB: 66%

Hitouts/To Advantage
38/11 - Sweet
5/0 - Glass-McCasker

Hitouts To Advantage

FO: 11
NB: 5

First Possessions
FO: 44
NB: 28

Clearances/Centre Clearances

FO: 40/10

NB: 26/10

Contested Marks
FO: 14
NB: 5

Marks Inside 50
FO: 16
NB: 13

Marks Inside Defensive 50
FO: 28
NB: 23

Score Launches
8 - Sweet
4 - Wallis
2 - Cavarra, Bedendo
1 - Young, Khamis, Smith, Garcia, Glass-McCasker, Sullivan, Cormack, William, Kellett, McComb, Raak, Orgill

Inside 50 Efficiency
FO: 52%
NB: 44%

Shots At Goal
FO: 30 (40%)

NB: 18 (33%)

Ranking Points
150 - Sweet
119 - Wallis
117 - Weightman
115 - Sullivan
110 - Butler
105 - Garcia
98 - Young
96 - Hayes
90 - McComb
83 - Cavarra
82 - Smith
77 - Boyd
77 - Cormack
77 - William
73 - Ugle-Hagan
72 - Bedendo
67 - Khamis
67 - Glass-McCasker
63 - Short
53 - Raak
41 - Orgill
29 - Kellett

Free Kick Summary

Score Sources

Team Summary

 

[Next Waiting]

Wouldn't mind hearing what others think. Our much vaunted midfield was good up to half time but after that they were outdone by a bunch of players who are capable but not normally regarded as stars of the game (Cotchin might have been a star once).

• Macrae kept doing what he does.
• Libba who was so dominant in the first half went quiet.
• Plenty have commented on Bont's game - good stats perhaps but very low productive output by his standards.
• Smith got a lot of possessions but did no damage with them - lacked composure.
• Treloar looked lost without his bestie. He did OK but far from dominant.
• Lipinski was so-so. Not a lost cause but he was shown up for lack of pace and physicality.

Our handball game disappeared under pressure. It probably didn't help that any time we looked like steadying there was an undisciplined (or perplexing) free kick given away and Richmond just held the ball in their forward half.

Yes it was an off night and I hope they will respond better next time there's intense pressure but for me the importance of Dunkley (and a second ruck) was also underlined. TBH I think we missed Dunkley and English far more than they missed Dusty, but we shouldn't take credit away from them for how well they covered Dusty's absence. They seemed to have a very clear strategy and executed it well especially after half time. By contrast we might have gone into half time a bit complacent. We lost our discipline and then forgot our lines in the third quarter.

I was at the game and thought we seemed a bit off in intensity from the get go and looked bloody ordinary in the 2nd half.

Think we got beaten in top 2 inches yesterday but Dunks and English are definitely significant cogs in our structure and not easily replaced. At least we'll get Tim back soon enough. Nankervis was a very significant and influential performer for them and definitely had the better of Martin....and everyone else....in the ruck the contest and around the ground.

West just p1ssed me off. That wasn't a team players game. Dropped.

Also missed VDM and McNeil zip. Both straight back in if fit for mine. We loomed flat and a bit one paced without them.

Schache......terrible. The least intense of not a very intense team performance. Dropped probs for good.

Cordy trailed Lynch all night and paid the price..which could have been much higher if he kicked straight. Midfield may bare some responsibility but playing in front seemed a logical way of at least giving yourself some sort of hope.

 

[Philthy1]

I was at the game and thought we seemed a bit off in intensity from the get go and looked bloody ordinary in the 2nd half.

Think we got beaten in top 2 inches yesterday but Dunks and English are definitely significant cogs in our structure and not easily replaced. At least we'll get Tim back soon enough. Nankervis was a very significant and influential performer for them and definitely had the better of Martin....and everyone else....in the ruck the contest and around the ground.

West just p1ssed me off. That wasn't a team players game. Dropped.

Also missed VDM and McNeil zip. Both straight back in if fit for mine. We loomed flat and a bit one paced without them.

Schache......terrible. The least intense of not a very intense team performance. Dropped probs for good.

Cordy trailed Lynch all night and paid the price..which could have been much higher if he kicked straight. Midfield may bare some responsibility but playing in front seemed a logical way of at least giving yourself some sort of hope.

West reminds me a bit of Lachie Hunter before he came good. Just trying to do way too much when he gets the ball.

 

[Next Waiting]

West reminds me a bit of Lachie Hunter before he came good. Just trying to do way too much when he gets the ball.

Perhaps. Back to the 2s might fast track the attitudinal adjustment required.
TBH he may have been replacing the managed McNeil or possibly VDM. They're both back if fit IMO.
I'm on the fence with West as far as his value and ceiling goes. Yet to be convinced and last night didn't help. But then it's not me that has to be convinced.

 

[weltschmerz]

My probably-bad thought is to bring in Sweet for Cordy.

 

[Wetdog]

You don’t need to wait for the VFL game to drop Schache

It goes without saying that English comes back in for Schache.

We really missed English last night, he would have marked or at least halved a number of contests down the line, especially in that last quarter.

If we learnt anything last night, it is that we need a fit and firing English to compete with the best.

 

[Wetdog]

Tough to decide on changes before we see who performs in the VFL tomorrow.

I'd be giving West another chance, made some bad decisions but I think he'll improve if he gets a chance to pick up the speed of AFL. Hannan gets another chance, despite me wondering why we brought him in so early before he had a couple more VFL games under his belt.

While Cordy wasn't great, I don't think Young would be much of an upgrade as they both have their deficiencies with Cordy having a little more experience. We could play someone like Khamis and go a bit smaller but I'd stick with the structure for now.

Unless some players absolutely dominate in the VFL, I wouldn't make too many changes.

OUT: Schache, Scott (injured?), JJ (probably won't happen)
IN: English (must in), McNeil, Garcia/Cavarra/Weightman (whoever puts their hand up tomorrow)

Good post. Cool heads need to prevail.

Whilst West wasn’t great, he was not far off a 2 or 3 goal match. I would persist with West.

English for Schache is straight forward.

Do we have a better option to Cordy? Not so sure...

 

[Here we go dogs]

We couldn’t of played worse and we were in the game with 6 min to go in the last quater. My changes are:

In: English Weightman Sweet

Out: Schache JJ Martin

 

[Mojorisin]

Out:
Martin (rest) looked cooked with the extra game time after a good start.
Schache... (omt) his a great vfl player
West (omt) was very impressed with his vfl game last week very poor last night though. Burning team mates in better positions, undisciplined frees.
4th out of Scott or JJ. JJ was lost again but may survive with Scott's late injury, very disipointing considering it was his best game.
In:
English, sweet, butler, khamis