The Eternal Punting Thread

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Have had a small nibble on grand slam ew in the cox plate @ $23 just coz of the lack of speed and on speed 3yos have a great recent record in the race. Wet track no real issue either.

On form and ratings, no hope. But the formula too good to ignore for me.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Jamie Kah is a beast btw. Fantastic jockey. One of the best going round.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Have had a small nibble on grand slam ew in the cox plate @ $23 just coz of the lack of speed and on speed 3yos have a great recent record in the race. Wet track no real issue either.

On form and ratings, no hope. But the formula too good to ignore for me.

Pacemaker for the winner clearly. That's not how you ride 3yos in a Cox Plate McNeil.

 

[jikost]

Pretty confident on Trump in a couple of days time. The polls are completely flawed (even more so than 4 years ago) and every other metric points away from Biden and towards Trump so here's my bets:

Trump to win outright @ $2.60
Trump to win Wisconsin @ $4.00
Trump to win North Carolina @ $2.08
Trump to win Pennsylvania @ $2.54
Trump to win Michigan @ $4.00
Trump to win Florida @ $1.78
Trump to win Iowa @ $1.74
Trump to win Georgia @ $1.79
Trump to win Arizona @ $2.30
Trump to win Minnesota @ $3.65
Trump to win New Hampshire @ $ 4.30

Also like any multi involving the above states as US elections are highly correlated by state.

 

[Russian Demon]

Pretty confident on Trump in a couple of days time. The polls are completely flawed (even more so than 4 years ago) and every other metric points away from Biden and towards Trump so here's my bets:

Trump to win outright @ $2.60
Trump to win Wisconsin @ $4.00
Trump to win North Carolina @ $2.08
Trump to win Pennsylvania @ $2.54
Trump to win Michigan @ $4.00
Trump to win Florida @ $1.78
Trump to win Iowa @ $1.74
Trump to win Georgia @ $1.79
Trump to win Arizona @ $2.30
Trump to win Minnesota @ $3.65
Trump to win New Hampshire @ $ 4.30

Also like any multi involving the above states as US elections are highly correlated by state.

Whats the logic behind polls being flawed more than last time?

I think all polls are flawed, but last time the methodologies were pure trash. There has been a lot more emphasis on data collection and trying to quantify the silent majority.

I don't disagree on the outcome, more the underlying assumption.

 

[00Stinger]

god the telecast on the Oaks has me already wanting to rip my eyes and ears out/off

Peter Hellier as a presenter, * me he is bad and isn't even slightly funny

Now we have Millsy and Nadia Bartel (why doesn't she drop the ******* Bartel name by the way) coming up

 

[Topkent]

Adelaide and Port Adelaide both have lines of under -7
Multi those up I reckon

 

[00Stinger]

Adelaide and Port Adelaide both have lines of under -7
Multi those up I reckon

I reckon Freo will roll the Crows

Sent from my SM-G981B using Tapatalk

 

[Topkent]

I reckon Freo will roll the Crows

Sent from my SM-G981B using Tapatalk

It's in Adelaide and Freo are pox away from home. Either way that's a thin line for those games

 

[Demon 16]

Geelong are $1.03 against North.

That’s how well North are going..

 

[djpaulydemon]

Had May and Fritsch not been injured and the odds were a bit juicier this would have been the week for me to bet against the Dees. Win lots of money or be 5-0, can't lose.

 

[Jamurp]

Had May and Fritsch not been injured and the odds were a bit juicier this would have been the week for me to bet against the Dees. Win lots of money or be 5-0, can't lose.

Hawthorn paying $4 is fairly juicy though?

 

[Topkent]

Hawthorn paying $4 is fairly juicy though?

Yah I went and looked at the odds after he posted and I was like aye? Odds are magnificent for the Hawks lol

 

[Jamurp]

Yah I went and looked at the odds after he posted and I was like aye? Odds are magnificent for the Hawks lol

Honestly if there’s a week to bet against the dees it’s this one, you won’t get better odds apart from perhaps North.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Yeah, $1.26 faves is getting into dangerous territory for us. We usually s*** the bed when we're at those odds. Hawks haven't been bad and with May out and Fritsch now gone it's the classic banana skin game. $3.90 are damn good odds for Hawks. Might throw a pineapple on it. Hopefully we're 5-0 but you have to go with the odds sometimes..

 

[Topkent]

Yeah, $1.26 faves is getting into dangerous territory for us. We usually s*** the bed when we're at those odds. Hawks haven't been bad and with May out and Fritsch now gone it's the classic banana skin game. $3.90 are damn good odds for Hawks. Might throw a pineapple on it. Hopefully we're 5-0 but you have to go with the odds sometimes..

This is one of those games where it's negligent for our fans not to bet against us.

 

[djpaulydemon]

Hawthorn paying $4 is fairly juicy though?

Yeah I phrased that wrong. I'm still gonna bet against us, but just not a large amount, maybe a pineapple.

If we were full strength and the odds were even better i would bet a lot more. Not necessarily because I would win more, just my tolerance of losing would be a lot lower and would then need to win more money to not be pissed off.

 

[Jamurp]

Yeah I phrased that wrong. I'm still gonna bet against us, but just not a large amount, maybe a pineapple.

If we were full strength and the odds were even better i would bet a lot more. Not necessarily because I would win more, just my tolerance of losing would be a lot lower and would then need to win more money to not be pissed off.

the first rounds of 2019 were gold for betting against the dees, nobody knew how bad we really were except us, until about round 10 it seemed.

 

[Devastating Boris]

WBD 15+ goals getting a gig in the daily multi.

Port and crows (w) probably the others.

 

[LeverPuller]

So one thing I love looking for is broken odds, where a one eyed supporter base forces the bookies to skew the odds to cover their losses.

And I think we have one today.

Pies v Suns. On form it’s a 50/50 IMO but Sportsbet are paying $2.58 on the Suns right now.

I’ve thrown a $20 on them.

 

[Devastating Boris]

So one thing I love looking for is broken odds, where a one eyed supporter base forces the bookies to skew the odds to cover their losses.

And I think we have one today.

Pies v Suns. On form it’s a 50/50 IMO but Sportsbet are paying $2.58 on the Suns right now.

I’ve thrown a $20 on them.

Got them at $1.40 for +24.5 to try and boost a multi. They’re every chance at punching it.

 

[schmuttt]

So one thing I love looking for is broken odds, where a one eyed supporter base forces the bookies to skew the odds to cover their losses.

And I think we have one today.

Pies v Suns. On form it’s a 50/50 IMO but Sportsbet are paying $2.58 on the Suns right now.

I’ve thrown a $20 on them.

Got them at $1.40 for +24.5 to try and boost a multi. They’re every chance at punching it.

Good spot gents.

 

[Devastating Boris]

 

[00Stinger]

$200 on the Tigers at $2.20

Thank you very much Bulldogs you front running pricks

 

[schmuttt]

I'm the definition of a mug punter but had a good week, turned $10 into $530 so far.






If the last one gets up that'd be great but otherwise have withdrawn all winnings