Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[VogonProsthetnic]

We don’t need developing kids we need someone to step in and perform NOW.

Its our glaring weakness that will cost us a flag this year imo

Maybe, but remember Keath is 28- so we are going to need someone of quality in 2-3 years. Trying a stop gap could make things worse later.

 

[doggie dog]

Looking a bit forward, which is a bit fraught at this time of year, currently we only have a 1st and 4th round pick (as it stands 17 and 72).

Pick 17 - 1025 points
Pick 72 - 19 points

We are going to need 2021 second and third round pick(s) to be able to do anything.

Potential F/S or NGA targets

• F/S: Sam Darcy, Ewan MacPherson, Billy Kolynuik. It seems the West twins aren't on the radar
• NGA: Cody Raak, Sam Chatfield, Siddharth Rajesh, Joshua Carlyle-Marks, Loris Bayly, Ethan Councillor, Kento Dobell, Blake Scott

Out of contract:

• Cavarra, Khamis, Weightman, Richards, Sweet, McNeil, Vandermeer, Jong UFA, Butler, Bontempelli, Wallis UFA, Lipinski, Garcia, R Smith, Gardner, Duryea, Liberatore UFA, Hayes, Cordy, Young, Martin, Scott

Priority areas of need:

• KPD
• Future ruckman (depending on how Martin goes it might an immediate need)
• Goal kicking small forward

Scenarios:
1. If Sam Darcy is indeed a top 20 pick (let's say he is for sake of argument). Then trade pick 17 to Geelong in exchange for pick 26 and 34. Turns 1025 points into into 729 + 542 = 1271 points. Darcy at pick 17 is 1025 at 20% discount = 820 points which is equivalent to pick 22.

2. Assume Adelaide re-signed McAsey to ensure they get maximum value for him and we are indeed interested in him. 2 second round picks are required to get it done - see Josh Schache, Jake Stringer, Marcus Adams. Trade pick 26 and 2022 second round to Adelaide for him.

3. Mitch Wallis signs at Gold Coast as an UFA. We get mid 3rd round compo, pick 47 at 316 points. Pick 34 and 47 = 858 points, enough to cover Darcy.

4. Trade McLean to Collingwood for pick 47 becomes pick 48 = 302 points because of Wallis compo. We have picks 34, 47, 48, 72 and McAsey traded in.

5. Alternative is that we trade Richards for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Say pick 23 and 56 to the Hawks.


Other things to consider:
If we target a ready made A grade KPD (e.g. Darcy Moore), then we are going to be giving up a lot (the equivalent of 2 first rounders). This could be 2022 1st round, Richards or McLean and pick 26 (or a lower pick). However, we keep our 2022 second rounder. That might be unders / overs, but you get the point.

The point of all the above is that all is not lost with no 2nd or 3rd round pick, but we are definitely going to be losing some players in order to get what we need in the door.

In my opinion we should do what it takes to keep Dunkley. Bains said Essendung are coming again and maybe others, but we should not be weakening our greatest strength. However, if we are forced into, perhaps a straight swap for Darcy Moore.

No doubt Sam Power has a plan.

1. That's a great idea
2. Unsure if that is like for like with scenario 5. If McAsey (who was a former pick 6) is worth two 2nd rounders wouldn't Richards (who was also a former 1st rounder but has shown a lot more at the same stage of their careers) be worth two 2nd rounders.
3. Unsure on Mitch, been watch the Magoo's and he was very serviceable there on Saturday (he refrained from just throwing it on the boot when he got the ball), on a cheap contract he is a great club man.
4. If McLean is only worth pick 47, keep him. Pre-injury he was going great guns, we'll see how he goes when he gets back.

In Sam WE TRUST.
I have no doubt Sammy has seen our backline and is working on it at the moment.
Here's where Sammy could be a shark, (see the Treloar and Keath trades)
Collingwood ain't winning anything in the next 4-5 years, they have no 1st rounder and are short on points for Daicos.
per the AFL website

The Pies currently hold four picks – No.37, 39, 47 and 50 – which are worth points in the draft value index used to match bids on Academy and father-son players. It gives them a total of 1518 draft points.

Under the bidding system, if a club places a bid on Daicos – the son of Collingwood legend Peter and brother of emerging midfielder Josh – at No.1, the Pies would need to find 2400 points to match it and make him a Magpie after the 20 per cent discount is applied.

If they are going after Daicos they need picks and players and we can do both, can you imagine if the pies can't match a bid on Daicos.
Collingwood may value Richards as a late 1st rounder, plus our 1st rounder with Schache (a position of need for them) or JJ(former Norm Smith Winner) as steak knives, they might be a long shot and desperate to part with Moore to get Daicos. it will also soften the blow to pies supporters by losing Moore they add Daicos, Lou's Great Nephew, and a former Norm Smith winner.

I don't know what Richards/1st round pick/Schache is worth in the hit to our salary cap but it would have to be close to Moore's 700k. JJ is damn close to 700k now.

Then I'll leave it to Sammy to find enough points to cover for Sam Darcy, see what he can get in the live trades, he got enough points for Marra.
I don't think we'll need many points for MacPherson/Kolynuik/Raak, happy to go into deficit for the F/S, the 20% discount is worth it.

 

[Mattdougie]

Maybe, but remember Keath is 28- so we are going to need someone of quality in 2-3 years. Trying a stop gap could make things worse later.

We have the list to contend for a flag now.

2-3 years who knows what he have.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

We have the list to contend for a flag now.

2-3 years who knows what he have.

We will be right in the sweet spot in 2-3 years provided we can keep Dunkley and get a quality kpd.

If not we will be top 8 only.

 

[ScragCity]

I think all these pipe dream KPD are ridiculous.

More chance my missus bringing Margot Robbie home for me than us getting Moore.

so we have to look at options that we can get and with Gardner and Young developing the 3 I would chase are .

Suns - Collins, lone the way he plays

Freo - Hamling - straight swap for JJ

Geelong - Henderson - far from their worst player and a short gap filler.

These three are most likely gettable a d make us better

This is the real pipe dream. Might as well trade Will Hayes for Steven May while we're at it. Straight swap.

 

[Mattdougie]

We will be right in the sweet spot in 2-3 years provided we can keep Dunkley and get a quality kpd.

If not we will be top 8 only.

Yeah everyone said that after 2016 also a s here we are.

If Dunkley goes he have the trade assets to chase someone of note but if he doesn’t we are constrained to normal parameters.

Pies go into full rebuild next year and Moore would be untouchable at any price unless he asks for a trade. So like all rebuild teams you can pick the more mature players out they may let go. As I suggested the three above are the guys I’d go after but Rough and Howe are probably possible if someone likes those options also. The pies are not rating Howe in the same hemisphere as Moore

 

[doggie dog]

You wouldn't get a fourth rounder for JJ and Schache combined. Most teams would rather take a risk on a kid late in the draft who might become something.

We wouldn't get a 4th rounder for JJ and Schache combined, but look what sammy got for Keath and Treloar.
I will never underestimate him.

 

[doggie dog]

My plan for the trade period is to get a gun FB and solid 2nd/3rd defender - upgrades on both Gardner & Cordy, but still having them for depth

Takes the list spots of any of Hayes/Rmith/Jong

edit - I am not Sam Power

That's what Sam Power would say

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Going back a few pages, GWS let Aidan Corr walk (even though they rated him) because they thought Sam Taylor was better, and made space to keep him. He's not going.

 

[adogsfan5]

There’s legit no good key backs that will be available. Unless we try pry Tarrant out? Could we grab Casboult on the cheap and turn him into a key back. (Saying that with a cringey face)

 

[ScottyDogg]

You wouldn't get a fourth rounder for JJ and Schache combined. Most teams would rather take a risk on a kid late in the draft who might become something.

Not trying to toot my own horn here but I suggested that we try and deal JJ last year while he most definitely still had trade value. Got shouted down by most on this board.

 

[Mattdougie]

There’s legit no good key backs that will be available. Unless we try pry Tarrant out? Could we grab Casboult on the cheap and turn him into a key back. (Saying that with a cringey face)

Dunkley isn’t available but that didn’t stop the bombers.

We should Pick someone realistic and go for it

 

[Sentinel]

Dunkley isn’t available but that didn’t stop the bombers.

We should Pick someone realistic and go for it

Yep availability is no longer dictated by contract lengths, provided you are prepared to pay the price.

 

[adogsfan5]

Dunkley isn’t available but that didn’t stop the bombers.

We should Pick someone realistic and go for it

Then throw everything at Moore and promise him many years of finals footy.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Then throw everything at Moore and promise him many years of finals footy.

Promise him a happy club

 

[Mattdougie]

Then throw everything at Moore and promise him many years of finals footy.

Pies are not letting Moore leave and even if they did we would have to lose Dunkley

 

[Anja_Nees]

There’s legit no good key backs that will be available. Unless we try pry Tarrant out? Could we grab Casboult on the cheap and turn him into a key back. (Saying that with a cringey face)

Unless there’s a proven performer I would trawl the lower leagues. Marcus Adams was a good performer on the cheap (injuries aside) and GC did well with Collins.

If Tarrant came cheap for a year or two that would be fine.

 

[Pugz89]

We have options. Obviously we all rate Naughton up forward and he's a gun. But hypothetically if we grabbed Harry McKay or another gun forward, then we could shift Naughts back. All the talk is on getting a KPD, but I'd expand the horizon to KPD or KPF and Naughton plays at the end the player we get doesn't play. Double our chances of filling the necessary hole...

 

[adogsfan5]

We have options. Obviously we all rate Naughton up forward and he's a gun. But hypothetically if we grabbed Harry McKay or another gun forward, then we could shift Naughts back. All the talk is on getting a KPD, but I'd expand the horizon to KPD or KPF and Naughton plays at the end the player we get doesn't play. Double our chances of filling the necessary hole...

Agree with this. Once JUH is ready I think Naughton will move back anyway. Maybe someone like a Weideman who might be available?

 

[Pugz89]

Agree with this. Once JUH is ready I think Naughton will move back anyway. Maybe someone like a Weideman who might be available?

Weideman would be ideal if we could pull it off. Perfect age for us. Weideman fwd, pushes Naughts back alongside Keath. Buys us a couple years til Keath is done at least and we'd run Weideman, English and Bruce/JUH forward.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I don't think Naughton back is going to happen. His forward craft is still quite poor but he's really starting to hit his stride as a CHF. I think something needs to change for us to fit JUH into the forward lineup, but I can't see it being Naughton to defence.

I doubt he'd be any good at key defence, but I think there's a better chance of Bruce being trialled there than Naughton returning.

At any rate, I'd hope we prioritise a KPD this offseason, but also not forget about a ruck. It's clearly a position of need, and once Martin retires (which could effectively happen this year, even if he stays on the list but more as a coach) we are left with only Sweet and English. Not only would I like to see us recruit a mature, ready made ruck again, but I seriously hope we draft someone too. It's not enough to have 2/3 rucks on the list or else you risk ending up in the kind of situation the Suns have found themselves in

 

[Pugz89]

I don't think Naughton back is going to happen. His forward craft is still quite poor but he's really starting to hit his stride as a CHF. I think something needs to change for us to fit JUH into the forward lineup, but I can't see it being Naughton to defence.

I doubt he'd be any good at key defence, but I think there's a better chance of Bruce being trialled there than Naughton returning.

At any rate, I'd hope we prioritise a KPD this offseason, but also not forget about a ruck. It's clearly a position of need, and once Martin retires (which could effectively happen this year, even if he stays on the list but more as a coach) we are left with only Sweet and English. Not only would I like to see us recruit a mature, ready made ruck again, but I seriously hope we draft someone too. It's not enough to have 2/3 rucks on the list or else you risk ending up in the kind of situation the Suns have found themselves in

It's a tough list balance though. Let's say you play two rucks, which we don't as such, then sure, 5 rucks on the list is good. For us, we play one main ruck and to have 5 on our list seems a bit skewed. To use that ratio, if we play two KPDs and KPFs, we'd need 10 each on our list. So we'd have 25 players who are rucks or key position players.
I think one more would be sufficient. Martin, Sweet, English and an extra is more than enough. I mean Sweet is 23 or so, English is similar..

 

[Oliver G]

Fergus Greene kicked 5.1 in the VFL for Box Hill yesterday and is averaging just under 4 goals a game this season. At Footscray he averaged just over 1 goal a gam.

 

[Freshwater]

Fergus Greene kicked 5.1 in the VFL for Box Hill yesterday and is averaging just under 4 goals a game this season. At Footscray he averaged just over 1 goal a gam.

He looked like he could play. I seen the Ballarat game live that he played in the 1’s and moved and marked well.

 

[Dogsman16]

We have options. Obviously we all rate Naughton up forward and he's a gun. But hypothetically if we grabbed Harry McKay or another gun forward, then we could shift Naughts back. All the talk is on getting a KPD, but I'd expand the horizon to KPD or KPF and Naughton plays at the end the player we get doesn't play. Double our chances of filling the necessary hole...

Another option is to grab a key forward and spin them to defence. Been several success stories in recent years of this happening.

Riccardi went back to defence in the 2s and had 40 disposals and 20 marks. I could name 5-6 players who are playing forward who would give more to the KPD2 position than we currently have. Ambrose, Casboult, Weiderman, Riccardi, Brander all could do a better job than Cordy in the role.

We don't need a star but we do need someone who has some attributes to lock down that role. Cordy has none. Undersized, not strong, and not fast as well as a timid ball user.