AFL 2021 AFL Round 8

[NYRB]

Tom Mitchell since he moved to Hawthorn has enjoyed playing as the main man . His AFL Fantasy scores against West Coast have been high.

2017: 122 pts
2018: 135 pts
2020: 104 pts (if you readjust this to 20 minute quarters 124.8 pts)

With West Coast not playing taggers on opposition, I fancy him to clear the 120+ mark today. I see him covering the disposal

He is priced at $2.55 at Ladbrokes to clear 120+

Under 110.5 pts $1.88 v $1.88 Over 110.5 pts is the line for him

I know its a fairly big line to cover but happy to take him in a SGM:


Koschitzke 2+ Goals
Tom Mitchell 120+ AFL Fantasy Points

Odds: 7.06

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Yeah they should. Money coming for the Hawks only makes sense if it's going to be rigged. They're worse than North

Fwiw, they spanked us in the preseason. It wasn't even close.

The Eagles are missing a solid 8-10 of their best 22. Every single line has been hit.

Today I'm going to get on a tall Hawk forward train, just haven't decided which one yet.

Also going to choose a small Eagle forward train, Hawks seem to give up goals to smalls, not talls.

If any of my fellow degenerates can help with my ticket purchases, I'd appreciate it.

Currently thinking Kozzy / Petrucelle.

 

[Geeves Train]

Similarly don’t mind the Cripps most goals. But of a Hail Mary but Hawks give up goals like nothing before

I’d suggest with Cripps to take 4+ at $21 as opposed to Most Goals ($17) because he’s much like likely to kick 4 and lose goals than he is to kick 3 and win. I guess same logic could be used for Waterman who is $26 for 4+ and $31 for most. I should have just played Waterman 4 tbh as I think 4 will be minimum needed to win most goals. Especially as Kozi train stopping at 5 stations!!

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u - WCE 1-39 - $2.20 - Ladbrokes

2.5u - Gaff over 30.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365

2u - Kennedy/Darling 5+ goals combined - $1.80 - TAB
1u - Kennedy/Darling 6+ goals combined - $2.63 - SB

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Fwiw, they spanked us in the preseason. It wasn't even close.

The Eagles are missing a solid 8-10 of their best 22. Every single line has been hit.

Today I'm going to get on a tall Hawk forward train, just haven't decided which one yet.

Also going to choose a small Eagle forward train, Hawks seem to give up goals to smalls, not talls.

If any of my fellow degenerates can help with my ticket purchases, I'd appreciate it.

Currently thinking Kozzy / Petrucelle.

All aboard the Cripps train lol

 

[GROTTO]

2u - WCE 1-39 - $2.20 - Ladbrokes

2.5u - Gaff over 30.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365

2u - Kennedy/Darling 5+ goals combined - $1.80 - TAB
1u - Kennedy/Darling 6+ goals combined - $2.63 - SB

Congratulations and well done on the Noble bet, I guess Noble loves his son. He got 31, I had no idea from memory what 30 was paying, 25+ was at $9

Also on the Crows total going under. That was a lock at QT.

 

[GROTTO]

All aboard the Cripps train lol

There is NO train until mouncey2franklin creates one.

Board rules.

I got banned for creating a Hannan train.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

There is NO train until mouncey2franklin creates one.

Board rules.

I got banned for creating a Hannan train.

Well the Buddy train went big fat donuts maybe he ate them all

 

[GROTTO]

Well the Buddy train went big fat donuts maybe he ate them all

That work experience kid at Sportsbet knew what he was doing when he framed the market for Buddy.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Well the Buddy train went big fat donuts maybe he ate them all

I didn't go anywhere near the Buddy Train.

I did however buy tickets for the Magpie kid who kicked 3.3 in the VFL train

 

[GROTTO]

I didn't go anywhere near the Buddy Train.

I tried to purchase First Class tickets at SB, but all they offered me was cheap economy tickets which I purchased, the jokes on them.

 

[Selim]

Darling 2+
Kennedy 2+
Koschitzke 2+
Cripps 1
Petruccelle 1
Wingard 1
Jeka 1
Breust 1
@39

also on the Koszy train 5+plus for @51

 

[NYRB]

I’d suggest with Cripps to take 4+ at $21 as opposed to Most Goals ($17) because he’s much like likely to kick 4 and lose goals than he is to kick 3 and win. I guess same logic could be used for Waterman who is $26 for 4+ and $31 for most. I should have just played Waterman 4 tbh as I think 4 will be minimum needed to win most goals. Especially as Kozi train stopping at 5 stations!!

Be careful of getting on Waterman for goals. Even he admits with the depth in forwards for West Coast he realises he has to be flexible and play all over the ground.

This was a quote from The West Australian newspaper today from Waterman:


“It was good to be back on the scoreboard,” the 23-year-old said.

“We’ve had a couple of injuries where I’ve had to chop and change between playing a bit higher, on the wing and even at times down back.

“But getting some experience in games playing in different positions, especially when we’re under the pump, will hold me in good stead for the future I’m sure.”

“In a team that’s pretty stacked with talls, especially in the front half, I’ve got to be pretty versatile and adapt to a different role that will get me in the 22,” he said.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I'm on the Cripps, Jeka and Kozzy trains. Multis up the yin yang, too.

 

[NYRB]

I know Waterman kicked 3 goals last week, but if I was estimating the time he has been playing forward , it probably is around 50% of game time .

Waterman Tracker:

V Freo: Defensive Half 31% v 69% Offensive Half
V Geelong: Defensive Half 67% v 33% Offensive Half
v Collingwood: Defensive Half 50% v 50% Offensive Half
v Saints: Defensive Half 89% v 11% Offensive Half


To be Waterman for goals you want to at least see him spend 2/3rds of the time in the Offensive end. He is a player that could be used at either end of the grounds.

 

[NYRB]

I'm on the Cripps, Jeka and Kozzy trains. Multis up the yin yang, too.

Like Kozzy and Cripps but this Jeka kid looked a bit fumbly for me last week.

 

[mookieb]

So, what's the consensus with a really bad Hawthorn team coming in vs West Coast? Into 9.5. Is it purely because they can't play away from home? They can't play away from home against good teams, Hawthorn are very ordinary they could of easily been 0-7 as we speak

Hard to back WC away from home with their record this year. Hawks aren't a great team (especially without JOM) but the WC lineup is starting to look very dire. Duggan out so that's another midfielder down. Playing heaps of youth / depth players and coming off the derby. Fortunately for WC Hawks will likely to struggle to contain Kennedy and Darling so that should be enough of a mismatch to get them home.

Hawks had a good record against WC of late as well.

 

[Geead]

I'm on the Jeka train, hoping it's 1 week delayed.

Also SGM WCE -2.5 QTR line, Cripps 15+, JK 2+ Goals @ $5 (SB)

 

[Robo87]

tailing cripps + kosi trains and on Petruccelle aswell. hoping atleast one train comes off. cripps is good value imo
2u Petruccelle 2g+ @2.88 sb
1u Petruccelle 3g+ @7.50sb
0.5u Petruccelle 4g+ @23sb
0.3u Petruccelle 5g+ @81sb
2u Kosi 2g+ @3.40 sb
1.5u Kosi 3g+ @5.60 sb
1u Kosi 4g+ @16sb
0.3u Kosi 5g+ @46sb
2u cripps 2g+ @3.40sb
1.5u cripps 3g+ @9.50sb
1u cripps 4g+ @31sb
0.3u cripps 5g+ @101sb

 

[NYRB]

I'm on the Jeka train, hoping it's 1 week delayed.

Also SGM WCE -2.5 QTR line, Cripps 15+, JK 2+ Goals @ $5 (SB)

Justin Koschitzke or Josh Kennedy?

 

[Robo87]

gunston a late out moore is in. will this affect much?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Hawthorn margins for 3rd, 4th, and second half are tempting.

The Eagles can have bad quarters, the Hawks can have good quarters.

Going to go with Hawks second half margin 37+ @ $21 sb

 

[Geead]

Justin Koschitzke or Josh Kennedy?

Josh Kennedy - sorry forgot they had same initials lol

 

[GROTTO]

tailing cripps + kosi trains and on Petruccelle aswell. hoping atleast one train comes off. cripps is good value imo
2u Petruccelle 2g+ @2.88 sb
1u Petruccelle 3g+ @7.50sb
0.5u Petruccelle 4g+ @23sb
0.3u Petruccelle 5g+ @81sb
2u Kosi 2g+ @3.40 sb
1.5u Kosi 3g+ @5.60 sb
1u Kosi 4g+ @16sb
0.3u Kosi 5g+ @46sb
2u cripps 2g+ @3.40sb
1.5u cripps 3g+ @9.50sb
1u cripps 4g+ @31sb
0.3u cripps 5g+ @101sb

Let us know after the game which Cripps you were backing.

Good luck.

 

[cznsnowy91]

I jumped on the -9.5 WCE vs hawks. They have ****ed me a couple of times this year, but today is the day!