Autopsy Rd 8 vs Dogs - 16 point loss. Let's not sugar coat it ... we choked!

[Blue since 72]

I suggest everyone look at the heatmap that katmanblue posted re the game against Doggies - they purposefully play through one side of the field most of the time - whereas our players are spread across both sides most of the time. This pretty much explains what 'making the field smaller looks like and also explains why we score much easier when we get clean ball - but also explains why opposition finds space easily gainst or structures.

Carlton midfielders have to run more to cover the same 'ground' as opposition - this wears players down and provides a massive cumulative advantage to better midfield teams over 4 quarters.

Our game style suits an ultra fit excellent DE% and great contested ability team - which means it is only as good as the weake links in the midfield can be.

Very informative to me. Means that times we lose the midfield battle - we are done. center bounce clearance differentialswere simply awful against Doggies by half way through third quarter.

You cant play this style against better teams and be any better chance than 50/50 at best - inless you blow teams away early they will always have a chance to come back. I just wonder what the game plan isnt modified when we do have a lead or when teams have a run on - to make things tighter. This is pretty much the major issue that has plagued performances under Teague for over a year now.

So Teague is backing the mids to win every stoppage or at least not lose it. What's surprising is as you say his seemingly dogged adherence regardless of the reality.

Weekend's game was the perfect time to adjust but he didn't, plus we have Cripps who's put on weight and is struggling and Williams who's apparently not fit enough as our go to mids.

This smacks of incompetence.

 

[Original Moody Blue]

For those who are rationalising defeat in the belief that 'realistically' we were never going to beat the Dogs - what a cop-out.. could almost call it a Carlton cop-out. We were up by 5 goals late in the 3rd - regardless of your pre-game expectations, to lose from there is a failure.

The Stocker turnover was a howler - first the kick, then the handball... but it happens, esp to young players. More concerning is that I'm not sure Stock has hit a single short or medium pass yet. Kicking has been way off. I don't mind him in defence, presuming his kicking improves.

SPS with his 15m pass to the contest on the boundary when we were clinging to the lead - I literally couldn't believe what I was seeing.

You couldn't see it on TV, but Cas really screwed up with the ball at HB - had Cuningham loose and streaming through CHF/HF. Would have been a certain score and likely a goal bc we had them outnumbered. Cas goes wide to Gibbons who mind-blowingly goes the short chip to Fog for a contest, who then handballs to Bont and Dogs were away.

3 awful moments during the last qtr with blame squarely on the players - repeat offenders, at that.

There were plenty of other moments - Weiters had an amazing game but he still fluffs his kicks more than he should .. I reckon it's when he does the Buddy curve - two out on the full; not good enough. These are the little things that need to be ironed out. Doc so often just bangs it on his boot, and regularly panicking as well.

I want the Club to come out and tell us whether Cripps and ZWilliams are still hampered by injury and maybe even give some specifics - it would make the whole situation far more tolerable. Writing has been on the wall for Cripps - I said after last week that he was a genuine liability for chunks of the game. Same for most of yesterday. I don't buy that it's bc he's attempting 'superman' things - something else is going on... if there is nothing else to blame other than form, I can't recall a greater fall from grace. Zwilliams is a much much better player than what he has produced - surely he's carrying something. If they're playing him injured, at least put him in his comfort zone at HB.

We have recruited two half-back flankers for 1.6 mill per season. They are trying to make Williams into a midfielder and by his own admission, he does not understand the role. Which recruiting genius made that call? Added to that he had soft tissue issues at GWS and they continue on with Carlton. We went thru all of this rubbish with McGovern. Excuse after excuse, until many finally realised he is nowhere near as good as promised. Even Teague admitted he does not find much of the ball. Our cap is stretched at 105%, with Harry, Cripps & Walsh all re-negotiating. Seems to me Cripps is going to have to take a hair cut, if we want to keep Harry & Walsh. We are also paying Curnow decent coin and he has not played for 2 years.
Summary:
We are paying 5 players about 3.5-4.0 mill per season. 4 recruits and one injured (potential) superstar. We are at 105% of the salary cap.
Eddie & Kennedy will probably be cut, but they were on rookie style contracts. Murphy should retire about 350k? If all this is to work Cripps needs to take a decent hair cut or walk or back end his contract until they negotiate a new contract with Curnow. Alternatively, they can try and poach another midfielder at a cheaper rate. Either way our cap will be full for at least 2-5 years.

 

[Stamos]

Yes and VERY fixable

And yet we're not fixing it

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[Original Moody Blue]

Wouldn't care how much the opposition scored as long as we outscored them. The damning part is the losing of games we could win, not the scores.
Quite happy to see us win a game 105-100 rather than 70-65.

Is that the defence or the midfielders not running the other way? Pittonet needs to get a rocket up his backside. He needs to become the loose man option in defence with his height and marking. Kreuzer was very good at this.

 

[gab213]

Is that the defence or the midfielders not running the other way? Pittonet needs to get a rocket up his backside. He needs to become the loose man option in defence with his height and marking. Kreuzer was very good at this.

I don't think the defensive unit is the problem.

 

[JustaBattler]

So Teague is backing the mids to win every stoppage or at least not lose it. What's surprising is as you say his seemingly dogged adherence regardless of the reality.

Weekend's game was the perfect time to adjust but he didn't, plus we have Cripps who's put on weight and is struggling and Williams who's apparently not fit enough as our go to mids.

This smacks of incompetence.

It is a high risk game style that has great benefits if used correctly but comes at a cost if that is all you've got...and dont know how to go to plan B which is make the ground smaller and easier to defend...

It is a front running game style when the players who have to spread and then run back and then spread and then run back stop running back as often. The problems are exacerbated when SOJ/Fogarty/Levi miss gimees over and over and over again if we don't get reward for the hard yards - the side is running ion fumes against a fresher opponent eventually - that is the big picture.

It really is an easy fix this game plan - by all means go for the fast scoring when players are fresh - but you need to also slow down and play slower to give players a chance to catch their breath for equal periods of time. The best teams mix both styles up all the time - that is what is called tempo football. It is more about making the actual contested ground smaller to allow for structured defensive positions behind the ball and more predictable outcomes...this is how you stop teams getting too many easy goals when they have momentum.

As for midfield winning every stoppage- that as we all knwo is unrelaistic - but if your spread is too wide - teh amount of dfensive ground that needs to be covered becomes too much as any game progresses.

I think Teague is in love with a game style that looks great with ball in hand and high levels of skill producing fast scoring - and looks pedestrian if execution is down ( eg against Port) and looks weaker defensively as games progress- because your midfield players are knackered.

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

...in a sport that has very little loyalty these days, John Barker has stuck fat by the Carlton Football Club.
He applied for the head coaching job twice and was overlooked.
With his cv and qualifications, he could've jumped ship with sour grapes and gone to a different, more successful club.

But he stayed and has endured when many more highly rated are now gone.

Says a bit about the bloke i reckon

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Says he's otherwise unemployable.

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

Our backline don't know how to slide from opponent to coverage as the opposition come down the field -- unless both wings make huge runs all day we are exposed . We have no grid behind the ball .. I feel we repell off individual talent

Yeah, but is that just a backline thing or a whole team thing? Because none of our guys know how to get back, or Teague plays them way too far up the ground in a vain attempt to lock the ball forward.

 

[Blue since 72]

It is a high risk game style that has great benefits if used correctly but comes at a cost if that is all you've got...and dont know how to go to plan B which is make the ground smaller and easier to defend...

It is a front running game style when the players who have to spread and then run back and then spread and then run back stop running back as often. The problems are exacerbated when SOJ/Fogarty/Levi miss gimees over and over and over again if we don't get reward for the hard yards - the side is running ion fumes against a fresher opponent eventually - that is the big picture.

It really is an easy fix this game plan - by all means go for the fast scoring when players are fresh - but you need to also slow down and play slower to give players a chance to catch their breath for equal periods of time. The best teams mix both styles up all the time - that is what is called tempo football. It is more about making the actual contested ground smaller to allow for structured defensive positions behind the ball and more predictable outcomes...this is how you stop teams getting too many easy goals when they have momentum.

As for midfield winning every stoppage- that as we all knwo is unrelaistic - but if your spread is too wide - teh amount of dfensive ground that needs to be covered becomes too much as any game progresses.

I think Teague is in love with a game style that looks great with ball in hand and high levels of skill producing fast scoring - and looks pedestrian if execution is down ( eg against Port) and looks weaker defensively as games progress- because your midfield players are knackered.

Even Teague himself said recently that when we slow it down we don't do it well. (I agree with everything you've said above but I find this comment concerning)

There's a line between backing your plan in and being belligerent in the face of hard evidence that it isn't working and all and sundry can see it isn't and hasn't been working since he took over.

I used the word delusional in relation to Teague last week and it's a pretty strong word but I think it's becoming more and more appropriate.

As you say an easy fix but if the head coach doesn't believe his players can handle tempo play then where the hell are we?

 

[FRUMPY]

so the doggies dont chase our mids when we go 'wide' or the whole ground, hence why we scored so many goals. And our guys were too tired from going to wide or whole ground.....and thats why they scored there goals.....pretty boring stuff really

When they score a goal, someone from our side did something dumb/wrong - ground breaking..... and when we score a goal, someone from their side does something dumb/wrong......so imformative....

Stats and analysis.............

 

[Dramoth]

...in a sport that has very little loyalty these days, John Barker has stuck fat by the Carlton Football Club.
He applied for the head coaching job twice and was overlooked.
With his cv and qualifications, he could've jumped ship with sour grapes and gone to a different, more successful club.

But he stayed and has endured when many more highly rated are now gone.

Says a bit about the bloke i reckon

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Has applied for about 4 other senior coaching role, and because of the closed market in qualified applicants, he got a first interview... and wasn’t invited back for a second. There have been, I think, another 3 senior coaching role over the last couple of years, and as far as I know, he didn’t apply for any of them.

He has reached his current level, despite showing levels of incompetence at the job, because he’s a “good guy” and some degree of loyalty from the club. If he was any good at his job, he’d have been poached away by a more successful club to be a senior assistant coach, or to be the senior coach.

I think at the start of 2020, there was some talk of the AFL creating a job just for him as the international coaching development officer... and then the job just disappeared. And I think he got a 2 year job at the club because his “international“ job disappeared.

 

[katmanblue]

Don't stress ST, he'll be off on long service leave soon enough.

Been saying it for the last half decade...
It'll happen eventually.

I hope.

 

[katmanblue]

This was highlighted as an issue on the couch. Showed examples of poor awareness by jones and doc for leaving an unmarked man in our d50 as they were running in. They scored on both occasions. On top of that we left bonts shot on goal unmarked. Probably would have kicked it anyway but just shows our mind lapses at times. Surely this is fixable.

That's why I think we aren't far off. Just a few small fixes could go a long way.

 

[JustaBattler]

so the doggies dont chase our mids when we go 'wide' or the whole ground, hence why we scored so many goals. And our guys were too tired from going to wide or whole ground.....and thats why they scored there goals.....pretty boring stuff really

When they score a goal, someone from our side did something dumb/wrong - ground breaking..... and when we score a goal, someone from their side does something dumb/wrong......so imformative....

Stats and analysis.............

What do you propose to replace rationality with exactly- irrationality?

If you are more spread than your opponents you have to make up distance when defending - and if you are doing this make up distance too much you are expending more fuel and energy than your opposition. It catches up on you over 4 quarters - if it doesn't get you before - because you have gaping holes all over the park allowing teh opposition to run or kick through on turnover. The more tired your runners are the less accurate they are with skill execution -it all compounds - you generate turnvpoers for them because you are kicking with tired legs. Watch teh disgusting 4th quarter against doggies if you wish to see a bunch of players at Carlton absolutely exhausted and making basic skill errors time and time again - that is what cost the game.

That is what game plan is btw- how do you best employ your team strengths and cover for team weaknesses against whatever the opposition is likely and able to throw at you. In days before computers and video good coaches did all this in their heads - now good coaches have access to information and data that should make things easier.

Pathology used to be a difficult thing- data has now made pathology far more accurate and therefre treatment more effective.

 

[AceAndy]

I don't think the defensive unit is the problem.

Agreed , i think the issue is further up the ground with a mid-field that allows opposition players to carve us up through the middle.

 

[mochacinolatte]

1 positive I can take is that besides the giant wall Weitering is. Docherty looks like his AA best when he took down the Bont.

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Yeah, but is that just a backline thing or a whole team thing? Because none of our guys know how to get back, or Teague plays them way too far up the ground in a vain attempt to lock the ball forward.

Yes this I also tossing up .. could be both -- sometimes it seems side drop that mid forward and our back follows no one slides to his direct there is overlap up the ground ending on a two on one -- or we let them drift forward leaving one out the back .. it not just happening once it all the time .. as soon as a side kicks in from a behind to the fat side or get a switch across there back flank you can pencil in a shot on goal ..

 

[peakie]

Agreed , i think the issue is further up the ground with a mid-field that allows opposition players to carve us up through the middle.

 

[peakie]

What might’ve been different had we kicked two goals out of The four behinds in the final quarter?
I suspect a victory!!

 

[katmanblue]

Stocker was good bar that one turnover. Would like him on the wing however.

Not yet, doesn't have the tank. Yet.

And even when he does, I think he'll be better in the middle. Got heaps of grunt. It'd be wasted on the wing.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Walking to get lunch today and someone had a Doggies top on... It freaking reminded me of the loss we had, god we really need to learn how to win again. Just wish that old school Carlton arrogance would reappear!!!

 

[macca_74]

Not yet, doesn't have the tank. Yet.

And even when he does, I think he'll be better in the middle. Got heaps of grunt. It'd be wasted on the wing.

I hate saying this given how well he is going but it may be that at some point soon Walsh will need to play more on the wing for team balance as guys like stocker are unlikely to be effective on a wing but can be in the middle?

 

[JustaBattler]

I hate saying this given how well he is going but it may be that at some point soon Walsh will need to play more on the wing for team balance as guys like stocker are unlikely to be effective on a wing but can be in the middle?

Not crazy just not far enough as far as fixing on core on ball group goes

Williams becomes a HBF / mid rotation and I would switch Walsh and Ed on to wings to make way for Setterfield and Stocker in the guts ( Cottrell as IC) Walsh and Ed are our two best runners and Ed with a bit of space goes up to average AFL kick instead of below average as an onballer.

Neither Stocker or Setterfield are better HFF options than Cuningham or Fogart- both of whom can also do some on ball rotations as can Williams off HBF.

 

[BlueAbroad]