Review Dogs Lose to Demons by 28 - Rd 11, 2021

[Mattdougie]

Be interesting to see what Bevo does with defence.

We have 7 defenders plus Gardiner plus Wood.

Personally I would like to see Williams played further up the ground, but I guess Crozier or Wood up forward will be used.

Dale and Daniel are not defenders. They are link men playing on the back half. Neither of them can one on one defend a donut from a fat kid.

Keath is our best defender by a street.

Then we have Williams, Croz, Duryea, Wood and Gardner at different levels of capability.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Lets no make excuses we flinched like we did against richmond - we are slowly turning into downhill skiers with a big turd in our pants

weak as piss well done to all for organising that spectacle.

This is pathetic - I hope you were 12 cans in when you posted and regret the effort. Melbourne played benchmark footy. Until you can prove you’ve played at AFL level it’s fair to assume the “weak as piss” participant is the keyboard warrior behind the post.

 

[Oliver G]

Warning: This post may contain statistics and some analysis about personnel attending centre bounces

Stats courtesy of Oliver Gigacz historical records

Vs Pies Rnd 1

Centre Bounce Attendance
17 - Macrae, Martin
15 - Bontempelli, Liberatore,
14 - Dunkley
4 - English
2 – Treloar

Score Launches
4 - Martin
3 - Treloar
2 - Liberatore, Lipinski, Macrae
1 - Duryea, English, Gardner, McNeil, Smith, Williams

Vs Eagles Rnd 2

Centre Bounce Attendance
27 - Macrae
25 - Bontempelli, Martin
21 - Liberatore
14 - Dunkley
9 - Treloar
7 – English

Score Launches
6 - Macrae
5 - Liberatore
3 - Dale, Dunkley, Treloar
2 - English, Williams
1 - Bontempelli, Duryea, McNeil, Smith, Wallis

Vs Norf Rnd 3

Centre Bounce Attendance
25 - Macrae
23 - Treloar
21 - Martin
20 - Bontempelli, Liberatore
14 - Dunkley
13 – English

Score Launches
7 - Liberatore
4 - Smith
3 - Dunkley, Macrae, Martin, McNeil, Treloar
2 - Dale, Duryea, Lipinski, Naughton, Wood
1 - Bruce, Daniel, English, Vandermeer, Scott, Williams,


Vs Lions Rnd 4

Centre Bounce Attendance
19 - Macrae
18 - Martin
15 - Treloar
13 - Bontempelli
11 - Liberatore
9 - Dunkley
4 – English

Score Launches
3 - Bontempelli, Macrae
2 - English, Martin, Wood, Young
1 - Bruce, Daniel, Dunkley, Hunter, Liberatore, Naughton, Smith, Treloar, Williams

Vs Suns Rnd 5

Centre Bounce Attendance
24 - Macrae
19 - Bontempelli
16 – Sweet*
15 - Liberatore
14 - Dunkley
12 - Treloar
6 - English
6 – Young*

Score Launches
4 - Dale
3 - English, Keath, Smith, Young
2 - Bontempelli, Duryea, Hunter, Scott, Sweet*
1 - Bruce, Crozier, Johannisen, Liberatore, Williams

Vs GWS Rnd 6

Centre Bounce Attendance
23 - Macrae
19 - Martin
18 - Bontempelli
14 - Treloar
12 - Liberatore
11 - Dunkley
8 - English
3 – Smith*

Score Launches
6 - Martin
3 - Dunkley, English
2 - Crozier, Treloar, Bontempelli, Liberatore
1 - Keath, Macrae, Johannisen, Wood, McNeil, Bruce, Hunter, Smith, Scott




It’s clear from the above that Martin, Dunkley and Treloar represent 50% of our primary 6 centre bounce division (Martin, Macrae, Bont, Libba, Dunks and Treloar (excluded Timmy)) and while I don’t have the numbers for ruck contests around the ground it would seem likely that those 6 would also make up the bulk of those.

We were building some real synergy and combination up to and including the GWS game and then in quick succession Dunkley, Martin and Treloar have all fallen to medium to long term injuries.

When your one wood is arguably the leagues best midfield at full strength, to lose half of your primary clearance division for an extended period inevitably brings you back to the pack a bit. We rely on that strength of midfield to dominate possession helping both attack and defence.

Against quality opposition, who with a close to full strength midfield would be close to on a par with us, giving up 50% of our competitive advantage will see us lose more often than win against such an opponent.

We need those 3 players (Dunkley, Treloar and Martin) to win deep in September unless our opponents are similarly affected by injury.

Centre bounce attendances and score launches as percentages below through the first unbeaten 6 rounds of the season (and substituting Martin for Sweet+Young in the Suns game and crediting Smiths 3 CBs to Dunkley in the GWS game as Smith hadn’t attended a single CB all season prior to Dunkley’s injury)). Martin, Treloar and Dunkley, through the first 6 rounds, had the highest number of CB attendances collectively in the Lions game (47.2 % (nearly half) and 37.9% of Score Launches against GWS.



CBs Pies: 33/84 = 39.2% SLs Pies: 7/19 = 36.8%

CBs WC: 48/128 = 37.5% SLs WC: 6/29 = 20.6%

CBs Norf: 58/136 = 42.6% SLs Norf: 9/42 = 21..4%

CBs Lions: 42/89 = 47.2% SLs Lions: 4/23 = 17.2%

CBs Suns 48/112 = 42.8% SLs Suns: 2/31 = 6.5%

CBs GWS 47/108 = 43.5% SLs GWS: 11/29 = 37.9%



After the first 2 rounds and a bit of trial and error and fine tuning, it seems likely that the MC decided that collectively, Martin, Treloar and Dunkley should have an average representation at centre bounces of 44%. That is now 44% that needs to be made up by less experienced, less hardened and less talented players or by increasing the workload of the hardened, experienced and talented players left standing.

Given the length of Dunkley’s lay off, and assuming that he recovers and is available for finals, the full capacity of this midfield won’t be seen again till late August or September. Add VDM, Wood and possibly McLean, JUH, Gardiner and Scott and we look quite different, more robust and a lot more threatening. Hope lives on….

If @ Oliver Gigacz wants to illustrate how things have changed since Round 7 I’m all for it….

Fantastic analysis, I've attached some more detailed data on centre bounce attendance and score launches if you want to expand it further...

CB Attendance 2021


CB Attendance R7-R11


Score Launces 2021

 

[NBates]

Could be that. Tommy Boyd reckons they’re the most arrogant lot his bulldogs team played so that might’ve informed that view

I noticed Gawn smiling and chatting to a team mate before the 2nd (I think). Wasn't in the huddle either. Maybe it just annoyed me, but I noticed it because it stood out as to not what you normally see. But thinking rationally I thought maybe they're just enjoying their footy. I actually thought it might be a good thing if they're not taking things seriously things might bite them in the bum. Unfortunately it didn't. I've got a real dislike for them now.

 

[Libba39]

English’s return was a real positive. Didn’t look like he had missed any footy at all.

What a weapon! Lets hope for some contunuity between now and september.

 

[dogwatch]

I noticed Gawn smiling and chatting to a team mate before the 2nd (I think). Wasn't in the huddle either. Maybe it just annoyed me, but I noticed it because it stood out as to not what you normally see. But thinking rationally I thought maybe they're just enjoying their footy. I actually thought it might be a good thing if they're not taking things seriously things might bite them in the bum. Unfortunately it didn't. I've got a real dislike for them now.

It can be a good thing, and nothing to do with arrogance. There's a well understood correlation between enjoying your sport (relaxing, not stressing out, feeling good, not distracted by negative thoughts etc) and superior performance. I've seen it myself when coaching and learned from it.

So while it could be a sign of arrgance or complacency or not being focussed, having a chuckle before play resumes can also be a good way of setting the tone and shutting out negative thoughts. Good on them if they managed it.

 

[Doggy]

Melbourne has been declared the premiers already by supporters on the main board on top of being paid out as the premiers when they beat Richmond.

Hopefully they fall in a hole because their supporters are getting big heads.

It's May

 

[dogwatch]

Problem with that imo, is that other than Keath, Williams is the best of them at actually defending.

Croz has been unusually poor in the air this season, Daniel with size, Cordy with his pace issues

I'm not really a fan of taking Williams out of defence but I agree he has the tools to be a good midfielder in the Wines mould. I'm pretty sure he played his junior footy there (collecting a famous 57 possessions on one occasion).

If he were to be moved, one way to cover for him would be to bring Gardner in. Not as solid all round and doesn't give the same drive out of defence but would cover for Williams in the air and has good closing speed. Dale, Crozier, Duryea and Daniel could provide the rebound in Williams' absence. Cordy could stay in the side and play the third tall for a welcome change (which is more like the Williams role anyway).

 

[maddog37]

So is our team more personal based than systems based?

 

[Next Waiting]

Fantastic analysis, I've attached some more detailed data on centre bounce attendance and score launches if you want to expand it further...

CB Attendance 2021
View attachment 1140154

CB Attendance R7-R11
View attachment 1140155

Score Launces 2021
View attachment 1140157

Clearances / Effective Clearances
WB: 36 / 27 (75%)
ME: 27 / 25 (93%)

Clearances

Centre: Dogs 11 Dees 13
Stoppage: Dogs 25 Dees 14



We had more 9 more clearances but only 2 more effective clearances and Melbourne won the centre bounce clearances 13 to 11. If the % is applied to CBs then Melbourne 12 effective CB clearances to the Dogs 8. It certainly felt like that and given the 6 6 6 rule winning the effective CB clearance count is a decent leg up, giving you the chance to isolate defenders one on one from a quick release and/or plenty of space I50 to hit up leading targets if you're skilled enough.

It's the one we can't afford to lose but lose it we did and convincingly. Defending those CBs against a dominant ruck and quality midfield and turning them into stoppages if we have to is where we're missing Martin, Dunks and Treloar as much as anywhere. Smith, Lipi, Sweet et al just don't do it as well and it's a fair drop off.

I50 efficiency of 35% doesn't help either ....but again we only had a maximum of 8 opportunities to go I50 one on one with space (not sure we even managed that). The rest of the time we're labouring it up from HB against an organsied defence with a plan and time to set up

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Also, Dunkley and Treloar are 8 weeks away - meaning that they could be back

Melbourne has been declared the premiers already by supporters on the main board on top of being paid out as the premiers when they beat Richmond.

Hopefully they fall in a hole because their supporters are getting big heads.

It's May

They can literally only add Viney to this best 22. They lose one player (Salem) and everyone goes "oh look how important he is, we can't win without him".

They rely on North having 2 player sin the bench to run over the top of them.

I'd much rather be in our position than theirs in who is more likely to win the flag.

 

[dogwatch]

Some thoughts on the lesser lights and role players last night:

Weightman - started brilliantly and was in everything in the first quarter. Faded, especially second half, which was disappointing. I'm not overly worried about that as he has only played a handful of games and was due a quiet one. Definitely adds a spark to our forward line and will be an added worry for defenders in the coming weeks and years.

McNeil - I think this kid has a future but it may be time for a spell in the VFL. He doesn't impose himself on the game in the way Weightman can but I accept he does a lot of good off-the-ball stuff as Mofra keeps reminding us. I think Scott or Hannan should take his place. Besides, he's no longer our talisman - his career start of 9 unbeaten games came to an end last night. Pffft!

Sweet - I know he tired in the latter stages but I thought he battled it out well with Gawn and co last night. There's no harder ruck opponent in the league than Max Gawn. The 2019/2020 version of Tim English would have been chewed up by Gawn last night. I noticed the Melbourne midfielders read his ruckwork and sharked quite a few of his clear hitouts - he will no doubt get smarter with that as he gets more games. Staying competitive there enabled English to play forward and around the ground which paid dividends for us. He'll probably be dropped when Martin is ready to play but he will have learned a lot and is not far off being able to hold the spot in his own right. Maybe in 2022 with a bit more endurance.

Garcia - I was really looking forward to watching this kid, especially against one of the toughest midfields in the comp. Such a shame he was subbed out early. He'll miss Freo due to the concussion protocols and I'm not sure if we'll then be prepared to bring him straight back for the Geelong game. Anyway he's young and has plenty of time. Looks a likely regular in 2022.

Butler - a huge step up for him and he might not have anticipated getting over 50% game time. Did OK but his inexperience showed. Totally butchered a 40% chance on goal which would have been deflating for him. However he's younger than Garcia so don't write him off yet folks. He may well fly to Perth as backup but I'd be surprised if he's included for the Freo game.

Roarke Smith - most of us scoffed and a few even roared in indignation when he was picked a few weeks ago but he has quietly earned our respect. And last night he earned quite a few Ching votes too, in one of his best games for the club. It should not go unnoticed that he has played his two best games against tough opposition, including last night when the chips were down. He's the sort of player you want beside you in the trenches, not unlike Liam Picken. He's been an unexpected bonus and is justifying the list management persistence in him that we were all so perplexed about.

These six players have a mere 52 games between them. 26 of those are from Roarke.
So there's still plenty of improvement in them.

 

[Next Waiting]

View attachment 1140070

Cordy with 381 metres gained (4th highest for the Dogs) was not the result we were looking for I imagine. Fair play to the Dees for keeping Caleb and Williams especially to 318 and 196 respectively.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Some thoughts on the lesser lights and role players last night:

Weightman - started brilliantly and was in everything in the first quarter. Faded, especially second half, which was disappointing. I'm not overly worried about that as he has only played a handful of games and was due a quiet one. Definitely adds a spark to our forward line and will be an added worry for defenders in the coming weeks and years.

McNeil - I think this kid has a future but it may be time for a spell in the VFL. He doesn't impose himself on the game in the way Weightman can but I accept he does a lot of good off-the-ball stuff as Mofra keeps reminding us. I think Scott or Hannan should take his place. Besides, he's no longer our talisman - his career start of 9 unbeaten games came to an end last night. Pffft!

Sweet - I know he tired in the latter stages but I thought he battled it out well with Gawn and co last night. There's no harder ruck opponent in the league than Max Gawn. The 2019/2020 version of Tim English would have been chewed up by Gawn last night. I noticed the Melbourne midfielders read his ruckwork and sharked quite a few of his clear hitouts - he will no doubt get smarter with that as he gets more games. Staying competitive there enabled English to play forward and around the ground which paid dividends for us. He'll probably be dropped when Martin is ready to play but he will have learned a lot and is not far off being able to hold the spot in his own right. Maybe in 2022 with a bit more endurance.

Garcia - I was really looking forward to watching this kid, especially against one of the toughest midfields in the comp. Such a shame he was subbed out early. He'll miss Freo due to the concussion protocols and I'm not sure if we'll then be prepared to bring him straight back for the Geelong game. Anyway he's young and has plenty of time. Looks a likely regular in 2022.

Butler - a huge step up for him and he might not have anticipated getting over 50% game time. Did OK but his inexperience showed. Totally butchered a 40% chance on goal which would have been deflating for him. However he's younger than Garcia so don't write him off yet folks. He may well fly to Perth as backup but I'd be surprised if he's included for the Freo game.

Roarke Smith - most of us scoffed and a few even roared in indignation when he was picked a few weeks ago but he has quietly earned our respect. And last night he earned quite a few Ching votes too, in one of his best games for the club. It should not go unnoticed that he has played his two best games against tough opposition, including last night when the chips were down. He's the sort of player you want beside you in the trenches, not unlike Liam Picken. He's been an unexpected bonus and is justifying the list management persistence in him that we were all so perplexed about.

These six players have a mere 52 games between them. 26 of those are from Roarke.
So there's still plenty of improvement in them.

Couldn’t agree more about Roarke

 

[WallyStringhaus]

I'm still a little perplexed as to why we felt the need to avoid May and Lever so much. In Naughton, English and Bruce we have three of the best contested marking players in the comp. We didn't even give them a chance to compete in the first quarter.

Kick it long and take the territory and if they do intercept, at least we have our own numbers behind the ball to defend. The areas of the ground on where we turned the ball over last night just gave us no chance to defend their scoring. We played right into their hands which is super disappointing.

 

[Doggy]

I get we were s**t last night but can't stomach melbourne flogs saying we lack skill and talent

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I get we were sh*t last night but can't stomach melbourne flogs saying we lack skill and talent

On last lights showing they weren't wrong when it came to skill.

Stay away from the main board and let them have their moment. We'll see them again.

 

[Dazb86]

I'm still a little perplexed as to why we felt the need to avoid May and Lever so much. In Naughton, English and Bruce we have three of the best contested marking players in the comp. We didn't even give them a chance to compete in the first quarter.

Kick it long and take the territory and if they do intercept, at least we have our own numbers behind the ball to defend. The areas of the ground on where we turned the ball over last night just gave us no chance to defend their scoring. We played right into their hands which is super disappointing.

I think it was probably the pre season game against them. May and Lever had a field day in that game so we probably planned to take a different route to goal.

It absolutely backfired if that's the case though.

 

[W W Biscuit]

I get we were sh*t last night but can't stomach melbourne flogs saying we lack skill and talent

The very definition of an inferiority complex. Laugh and move on. Premierships aren't won in May.

 

[dogwatch]

I think it was probably the pre season game against them. May and Lever had a field day in that game so we probably planned to take a different route to goal.

It absolutely backfired if that's the case though.

Yes, it shouldn’t have to be on their terms. Why not chip then run and carry? Did they bluff us into playing an unfamiliar game?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I think it was probably the pre season game against them. May and Lever had a field day in that game so we probably planned to take a different route to goal.

It absolutely backfired if that's the case though.

And we won that pre-season game. We also beat Collingwood R1 even though Darcy Moore will get the 3 Brownlow votes in a losing team, not trying to "avoid" him.

By avoiding them, Dale and Daniel turned into short-kicking, lead-up mark half-backs, which isn't their game off half back. They're longer, creative kicks, with overlap run. We're not Geelong or West Coast who have drilled into their half-backs how to hit a 20m pass through tight pressure (which works for them, but not us), yet we tried to play like them.

 

[Cousin Ben]

Problem with that imo, is that other than Keath, Williams is the best of them at actually defending.

Croz has been unusually poor in the air this season, Daniel with size, Cordy with his pace issues

True. The only times I've seen Crozier get up high this year he's dropped chest marks and left us outnumbered at the fall. He has his detractors but maybe we have to go with Gardiner again, if only because his defensive fist was starting to come along nicely. God knows we need it (calling out for Jordan Roughead).

 

[BEaston]

Dunks and Treloar out is a piss weak excuse.

We have more than enough players on the park to put on a good performance and didn't.

Having said that, Melbourne played about as well as they have all year and only beat us by 28 points.

 

[Doggy]

Having said that, Melbourne played about as well as they have all year and only beat us by 28 points.

With only Viney to come back in

 

[Proffessor]

It is amazing how great players magically become when they aren’t playing.

Considering the number of people lamenting his absence Ryan Gardner’s recent injury has led to an apparent improvement of epic proportions not seen since the days of Corey McKernan or Paul Salmon.

Conversely the amount of criticism poor Zaine Cordy cops is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Despite him being a much more accomplished player.

Cordy made more positively impactful actions in the first quarter last night than Gardner has thus far been able to achieve in his best 4 quarter game.

Get a grip people. Gardner is currently a big guy who can run around a lot, punch the ball away and perhaps mark it if nobody else is around. Yes he is improving and may get better still but when your start is that bad the only way to go is up. He may get back into the side but he needs to improve a lot more before we talk about him being the missing link.