Ant Bear
Swamprat
- Dec 7, 2012
- 36,660
- 84,423
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Port Magpies, Swamprats forever,
Thursday June 10, 7.10 pm
Adelaide Oval (probably)
Geelong are expecting several changes to their most recent team, with Dangerfield, Duncan, Guthrie, Miers, O'Connor and Blicavs headlining their potential inclusions after overcoming injuries. It would be a massive slab of changes, and maybe they will also look to their R14 game against the Bulldogs to stagger the inclusions. In fact, they have a terrifying month ahead, with us, Bulldogs and Brisbane on their immediate agenda, so if we can win it might be the impetus for us to stake our claim on the top 4 spot that we are contesting.
For us, it seems like the cavalry is still over the hill. Butters is expected to return to running this week, and Duursma is on the track already; Lycett will serve out his suspension in this game and Clurey is still eating through a straw. Fantasia had minor surgery this morning and will miss against Geelong, so perhaps Woodcock or Bergman will replace him, and we know that Hartlett will be considered for an instant return. Burton is being managed, but has started every game this year, much to the surprise of all!
Geelong play a similar style to Collingwood, except with better players - they like to play a measured, careful game but have the capacity to explode to their big forwards Cameron and Hawkins, who make the likes of Rohan, Close and Higgins dangerous. McKenzie played Tomahawk expertly in the Qualifying Final last year, pushing him wide and playing him tight. We have countered their recruitment of Cameron with the inclusion of Aliir, which shapes as a great contest, and Burton, DBJ, Bonner and Jonas will be our other defenders.
In our attacking half, Dixon showed signs of improvement against the Dockers, and Marshall and Georgiades have been reliable sidekicks (if slightly inconsistent). The small forward stocks are being tested, but we still have Robbie Gray, Motlop, Rozee and SPP down there, so there is plenty of offensive threats for the Cats to worry about. Their defence is undersized, with Henderson the biggest and likely to ge the task on Charlie(unless Blicavs plays back). Stewart, Tuohy, Kolodjashjnij and Henry are all similar types - they will probably send Henry and Kolo to Marshall and Georgi, and Stewart to Gray.
However, it is in the midfield that this game will be decided. We know that, in the short-circuits against the Eagles, Lions and Dogs, our midfield was beaten badly early, and the team is fully aware of this and should be on guard against similar lapses. Ladhams will be up against Ratugolea, or possibly Stanley, and Pistol Pete has been in fairly good form; however, he is an inexperienced player still who still strives for consistency. At his best, he will lose or break even on hitouts but provide a level of ground level skills that few ruckmen possess. Wines and Boak are carrying the can for the midfielders, and both have been superb throughout this season, but they will encounter a strong Cats midfield of Selwood, Dangerfield, Guthrie, Parfitt and Isaac Smith. The likes of Drew, SPP, Houston and Amon will need to pay due diligence to the defensive aspects of their games to prevent quick ball movement to the Geelong forwards, and also be prepared to spread hard when it goes our way to prevent Geelong from setting their zones up.
Geelong are notoriously slow to restart after a bye, and playing in Adelaide has been kryptonite for them lately, losing their past 2 games here. They also have to deal with their statewide lockdown, whereas we have fairly full freedoms at this stage. As long as we can hang tough early, we have shown that we are a good team, building towards finals and reasonably settled.
I tip the Ports, by 10 points. Lots of cobras.