Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

So you haven’t watched any of these games to really know how Callow performed?

I've seen 4 wins from 4 games from Norwood. Can't help being a good luck charm.

In the games Norwood have lost, they haven't scored as much as 50 points, so there isn't much you can expect in the way of hitting the scoreboard from those sorts of games. Presumably the delivery would have been minimal, but I'm happy for those who have watched those games to contribute.

 

[Jazny]

I actually didn't call him awful, he's not, but he's got some clear areas to improve on that seem to disappear when he's spoken about in mid season draft threads

Isn't that every single player who is expected to go outside the top 15? I think saying he was a top 20 pick is like saying you think he has a 50/50 chance of making at AFL level. Not "He's the next Wayne Carey". If he had no work to do on his game, he'd be a pick 1. Calling him a flat track bully based on stats from SANFL from games you didnt even watch, without seeing him last year in the TSL... I just don't get why you would say this stuff.

 

[PMBangers]

Calling him a flat track bully based on stats from SANFL from games you didnt even watch, without seeing him last year in the TSL... I just don't get why you would say this stuff.

Lol, unlike some on here I'm not making public assessments off of stats and assumptions, you'd probably like me more if I did

 

[briztoon]

May well be true but you can’t really say it’s “spot on” with confidence either unless you have watched him yourself too?!

Haven’t watched him in person, but have watched him online enough.

And yet he is probably going to get drafted, weird for such an awful player. He outperformed most KPFs as an under ager playing for a Tasmanian team that finished near the bottom of the ladder in 2019. What a flat track bully

As mentioned, he’s been able to dominate underage footy and the TSL (which isn’t that great a league) because he’s physically bigger than the vast majority of his opponents.

He hasn’t had to be superior athletically to dominate.

He’s not going to get by on his size alone at AFL level. Most teams second defender is going to the same size, faster and more athletic.

He’s getting a look in because there aren’t many other KPF options in the MSD this year, and Collingwood won’t have a pick at the end of the year in the National Draft to target a KPF.

 

[briztoon]

Isn't that every single player who is expected to go outside the top 15? I think saying he was a top 20 pick is like saying you think he has a 50/50 chance of making at AFL level. Not "He's the next Wayne Carey". If he had no work to do on his game, he'd be a pick 1. Calling him a flat track bully based on stats from SANFL from games you didnt even watch, without seeing him last year in the TSL... I just don't get why you would say this stuff.

Ummm, you got to know who you’re talking to. I don’t watch a lot. Mostly highlights, and the odd match.

But the Draft Central guys are a different story. They watch a lot.

And there’s a guy on here with a patreon page you can subscribe to, who makes a lot a player videos, cutting full matches, much like professional scouting videos.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

 

[Knightmare]

Haven’t watched him in person, but have watched him online enough.


As mentioned, he’s been able to dominate underage footy and the TSL (which isn’t that great a league) because he’s physically bigger than the vast majority of his opponents.

He hasn’t had to be superior athletically to dominate.

He’s not going to get by on his size alone at AFL level. Most teams second defender is going to the same size, faster and more athletic.

He’s getting a look in because there aren’t many other KPF options in the MSD this year, and Collingwood won’t have a pick at the end of the year in the National Draft to target a KPF.

AFL footballers don't have to be 'superior athletically to dominate.' That was the entire point of my podcast.

Is Jeremy McGovern superior athletically? Was Brian Lake superior athletically in his 30s? Is every worthwhile key forward a freak athlete? Do they have to be? I don't believe they do.

Being in Victoria, of course I haven't seen Callow live this year. I have however seen more than enough of him 'live in person' in 2019 when he was in the NAB League.

With that said however, I dismiss the notion in its entirety that one needs to see someone live to know if they can play. Watching games online, particularly when aided by the capability to pause match play and go back to re-watch particular key players I find significantly more valuable than going to matches when assessing talent. It allows me to take double the notes I would be able to if I attended a match live and means missing far less. I am a copious note taker and take twice as long going through match tape than others would, so others no doubt won't gain the same value if they just plainly watch the game through without pausing, rewinding and re-watching particular plays/sequences several times through, but that's what I find I get the most value out of when I get that opportunity.

 

[Chris25]

And yet he is probably going to get drafted, weird for such an awful player. He outperformed most KPFs as an under ager playing for a Tasmanian team that finished near the bottom of the ladder in 2019. What a flat track bully

I think Callow will and deserves to be picked tomorrow. He’s shown enough this year, that even if he hasn’t improved his game greatly that it still translates to a step up in competition. And I think he finds a home at AFL level somewhere.

But it’s also worth tempering expectations. Like you said, he outperformed other talls as a 17 year old. And yet was still overlooked by every team 6 months ago. So clubs have concerns.

A lot of the media attention is to make tomorrow seem interesting. And the guys get talked up simply because they’re able to be picked. I don’t think Jacob Edwards is a top 10 pick, maybe fringe first round. But it helps to sell it tomorrow.

 

[Jazny]

Lol, unlike some on here I'm not making public assessments off of stats and assumptions, you'd probably like me more if I did

lol KM and I mostly disagree with each other on players. I am usually in here saying some fringe player from Tasmania is a draft chance, like Patrick Walker, and he is saying "yeah nah" It's just that on Callow we have both come close to the same conclusion... well I think we have... I think he deserved to be around pick 20 last year, so imo that gives him a 50% chance or so of making a decent footballer. He might get delisted straight away, or he might go on to have a career like Mihocek or the old and bald Walker from North Melbourne.

I think your bias against KM just made you say stuff way too confidently and negatively about Callow. Those guys you listen to probably know lots more about AFL than me, and maybe KM, but professional recruiters whose full time job it is to know these things often get things wrong too. Apart from trying to troll KM, why would you come so strongly out about a 18 year old footballer?

 

[PMBangers]

I am usually in here saying some fringe player from Tasmania is a draft chance, like Patrick Walker

Well there you go, you wouldn't believe it but I also thought Walker was a draft chance, even Tasmanias best

I think your bias against KM just made you say stuff way too confidently and negatively about Callow. Those guys you listen to probably know lots more about AFL than me, and maybe KM, but professional recruiters whose full time job it is to know these things often get things wrong too. Apart from trying to troll KM, why would you come so strongly out about a 18 year old footballer?

The accusation of me listening to people about Callow is interesting and I'd love to know where it's coming from, is it because I don't particularly rate him? Are you saying that I don't watch junior football?

And it's mostly because before Callows two big games there was minimal talk, and now he's being talked about like he's the biggest draft miss of all time, what I said was my opinion on him, still unsure why it's a big deal

 

[Jazny]

But it’s also worth tempering expectations. Like you said, he outperformed other talls as a 17 year old. And yet was still overlooked by every team 6 months ago. So clubs have concerns.

I agree, there is no guarantee on any player really outside like the top 10, and even a lot of top 10 players bust. But he went beyond tempering expectations to say Callow is a "flat track bully with the athleticism of a mining truck". Flat track bully? Based on 10 games worth of stats that barely anyone even saw?? I wouldnt mind if he said Callow may not have the athleticism or even a good enough game to make it at AFL level... maybe he doesnt. That's why he wasn't pick 1 last year. He may bust, but I think that its going too far the other way to bag him as much as PMBangers did.

 

[Jazny]

The accusation of me listening to people about Callow is interesting and I'd love to know where it's coming from, is it because I don't particularly rate him? Are you saying that I don't watch junior football?

And it's mostly because before Callows two big games there was minimal talk, and now he's being talked about like he's the biggest draft miss of all time, what I said was my opinion on him, still unsure why it's a big deal

I thought you said yourself, sorry if I was mistaken. I think I got you mixed you up with briztoon's post lol. And your initial criticism of comparing his games to position on the ladder has been said here before by a user called Souup.

Well there you go, you wouldn't believe it but I also thought Walker was a draft chance, even Tasmanias best

 

[THE_GUN]

Have you seen Thorne play? Watched him about 3 times this year. Tidy little player - plays on ball for Peel though. He doesn’t kick many goals.m either so not sure where the small forward thing is coming from.

He won’t be playing midfield at AFL level.
He’s about 168cm and about 60 kilos. He reminds me of a bantam weight boxer.
He would get brutalised in the AFL.

Before you mention other small players in the AFL - Caleb Daniel is possibly the best user of the footy in the entire AFL and is a much stronger build than Thorne.
Tipungwuti would literally weigh 25 kg more than Thorne I reckon and kozzie Pickett is a little human meatball with explosive physical power.
They are not comparable.
There’s a reason out of 800 odd listed AFL players there’s only one under 170cm.

Thorne is playing midfield, but has played forward in the past and continues to demonstrate the attributes that make him ideally suited to playing as a crumbing forward at AFL level.

As you say, at his height and with his lack of weight, that's not going to get it done through the midfield at AFL level which is why I've made the forward suggestion.

Funnily in speaking to an AFL recruiter I recommended Caleb Daniel to him, and he was very quick to shut me down and suggest Daniel wouldn't make the grade.

You're right the odds are stacked against Thorne at the height, but I do see enough talent.

As a small forward, that's the spot where I don't see height as mattering, as you've already mentioned with Kozzie, Tipa. Betts. The history of the position is small guys. Thorne has the right mix of attributes. He has the speed/agility. He brings the forward pressure and tackling energy and enthusiasm and is despite his light frame actually very aggressive with his tackling. His skillset is wonderful - can finish around goal, but also a playmaker up front who can set up teammates with his foot skills. He's finding the footy and finding it further afield so he has that. Terrific at ground level needless to say with his crumbing work having seen it in years past exceptional. So for me he has the mix of attributes he needs to be a success by position. I'm not going to guarantee he makes it, but if I want a crumbing forward this MSD, he's clearly the guy, particularly with Lambert not nominating. Lowson would be the next best alternative, but he's older and not as complete of a player, nor as great at ground level.

Is this Samuel Thorne from Allies swans academy ?
If so https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/samuel-thorne/ has him listed at 175cm

If he is that height there would be no issue with his size in the midfield provided he is good enough , same height as Bolton and 2 cm taller than Baker who were both less than 70kg's as under 18 year olds

 

[PostPaolo]

Is this Samuel Thorne from Allies swans academy ?
If so https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/samuel-thorne/ has him listed at 175cm

If he is that height there would be no issue with his size in the midfield provided he is good enough , same height as Bolton and 2 cm taller than Baker who were both less than 70kg's as under 18 year olds

Wrong Thorne mate, this one's from Peel in the WAFL

 

[Knightmare]

Is this Samuel Thorne from Allies swans academy ?
If so https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/player/samuel-thorne/ has him listed at 175cm

If he is that height there would be no issue with his size in the midfield provided he is good enough , same height as Bolton and 2 cm taller than Baker who were both less than 70kg's as under 18 year olds

Tyrone we're talking about.

Both have put their names in though for the MSD.

 

[the big lebowski]

I’m not sure how an 18 year old playing in a men’s competition can be described as a flat track bully.

Sure, point out that his unbelievable stats are inflated against weaker teams. But he’s still a kid, seems strange to assume he has zero scope for athletic development in a professional environment.

 

[Chris25]

I’m not sure how an 18 year old playing in a men’s competition can be described as a flat track bully.

Sure, point out that his unbelievable stats are inflated against weaker teams. But he’s still a kid, seems strange to assume he has zero scope for athletic development in a professional environment.

This thread has been full of over the top statements about how good Callow has been. That he makes the SANFL look like a joke. Only fair that the negative statements are over the top too.

If losses and a lack of quality inside 50s can be used to explain quiet games. Then wins and a dominant midfield should therefore also be used to explain his good games.

Fair and balanced reporting. That’s what BigFooty is all about, right...?

 

[Rusty Beam]

This thread has been full of over the top statements about how good Callow has been. That he makes the SANFL look like a joke. Only fair that the negative statements are over the top too.

If losses and a lack of quality inside 50s can be used to explain quiet games. Then wins and a dominant midfield should therefore also be used to explain his good games.

Fair and balanced reporting. That’s what BigFooty is all about, right...?

That fair and balanced reporting only seems to apply to select players on Big Footy though...

 

[Chris25]

That fair and balanced reporting only seems to apply to select players on Big Footy though...

I can badmouth Edwards and Moyle if you really want.

 

[PMBangers]

I can badmouth Edwards and Moyle if you really want.

Think they're talking about Horne

 

[Knightmare]

This thread has been full of over the top statements about how good Callow has been. That he makes the SANFL look like a joke. Only fair that the negative statements are over the top too.

If losses and a lack of quality inside 50s can be used to explain quiet games. Then wins and a dominant midfield should therefore also be used to explain his good games.

Fair and balanced reporting. That’s what BigFooty is all about, right...?

Norwood's scores, as with other SANFL sides are routinely low and Norwood's win's haven't for the most part been blowouts. No 100 point games let alone 50 point wins.

 

[Jazny]

This thread has been full of over the top statements about how good Callow has been. That he makes the SANFL look like a joke. Only fair that the negative statements are over the top too.

I dont think Callow makes the SANFL look like a joke either and I can see how that might annoy someone from SA, but it seems hypocritical to then support equally unfair and over the top calls. And the difference is Callow is a real person, who is still 18, with people that support him so of course that is going to annoy people to be negative about him just to score points in a bigfooty thread.

 

[Chris25]

I dont think Callow makes the SANFL look like a joke either and I can see how that might annoy someone from SA, but it seems hypocritical to then support equally unfair and over the top calls. And the difference is Callow is a real person, who is still 18, with people that support him so of course that is going to annoy people to be negative about him just to score points in a bigfooty thread.

Wait until Callow plays a bad game at AFL level and his own supporters start to tee off. This forum is probably one of the nicest on the site.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on powerful mid/fwd Hugh Stagg: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...owerful-midfielder-gives-quinton-narkle-vibes

 

[Jazny]

Wait until Callow plays a bad game at AFL level and his own supporters start to tee off. This forum is probably one of the nicest on the site.

Yes club boards are a cesspit of some of the meanest stuff you will see written about players from their own clubs... and Im a bay poster At least the bay is meant to be stupid and tongue in cheek. It's hard having Aaron Hall as my favourite player and looking at posts about him on here... except for this year. No wonder so many players have mental health issues. At least could we not start on them until they become AFL players?