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2021 French Open Tennis Grand Slam

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Tennis from a betting perspective would really improve if the mens went to best of 3 I reckon. Faves are just too heavy to even want to multi at best of 5 and it is hard work picking the upsets. It's not just the big name players. Last night for example Fritz has gone around at $1.14, Sonego at $1.14 and lost, Koepfer at $1.23, Munar $1.10, Sinner at $1.11, Tiafoe $1.17 and lost. Week to week on tour you'd be getting $1.25+ for these guys and you can build some multis around your value plays.
 
Hamingja said:
Tennis from a betting perspective would really improve if the mens went to best of 3 I reckon. Faves are just too heavy to even want to multi at best of 5 and it is hard work picking the upsets. It's not just the big name players. Last night for example Fritz has gone around at $1.14, Sonego at $1.14 and lost, Koepfer at $1.23, Munar $1.10, Sinner at $1.11, Tiafoe $1.17 and lost. Week to week on tour you'd be getting $1.25+ for these guys and you can build some multis around your value plays.
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No thanks. I swear if anything it should be the other way, women should play 5 (second week at least). Why are we changing the sport just for your multi bets...and by the way there’s plenty of value especially at the French just need to know who are the clay specialists
 
Clay is usually full of value like LP says... The market tends to just treat it as another tennis tourney but it's not, so many odds are wrong. I think last year for example there were a lot of Euro long shot upsets over US faves 'Cos the Yanks don't know much other than a hard court.

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ricardogp said:
Clay is usually full of value like LP says... The market tends to just treat it as another tennis tourney but it's not, so many odds are wrong. I think last year for example there were a lot of Euro long shot upsets over US faves 'Cos the Yanks don't know much other than a hard court.

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Yep. Generally Spanish, Argentinan, etc players are fantastic value even as outsiders. It pays well to look at lead up events too.

I mean Mededev was $1.08 to win last night and yeah I know he won but he hadn’t won a match here ever. That was poor value.
 
Gift said:
Meddy was 1.40 last night. I was tempted to take it in my multi but didnt
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Was he? Must have been last tournament where he was those silly odds. I tend to avoid non clay court players period.
 
I agree that theres heaps of value with clay but its hard to pick em.

Clay neutralises the weapons of all the big hitters so its a more even playing field compared to hard which means plenty of upsets on both mens/womens.

Tactic is to do a multi with all your safe locks and then take long shot upsets as singles (or multi long shot upsets to just win a set in your safe). The upsets will mainly be inconsistent ball strikers that are decent on hard.
 
Gift said:
I agree that theres heaps of value with clay but its hard to pick em.

Clay neutralises the weapons of all the big hitters so its a more even playing field compared to hard which means plenty of upsets on both mens/womens.

Tactic is to do a multi with all your safe locks and then take long shot upsets as singles (or multi long shot upsets to just win a set in your safe). The upsets will mainly be inconsistent ball strikers that are decent on hard.
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Also limit yourself to a MAXIMUM of 4 women’s matches. Women’s are tough enough and especially tough on clay.
 

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LukeParkerno1 said:
Also limit yourself to a MAXIMUM of 4 women’s matches. Women’s are tough enough and especially tough on clay.
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I think it depends on your knowledge of Women's tennis.

Most men have a complete game besides grinder type players. Whereas with women, they are generally all one trick ponies and play a certain style all the time.

This means certain matchups will provide clear advantages on clay. Weak pusher types will have a decent chance against inconsistent ball bashers on clay, whereas on hard they will pretty much always lose. You can also fade very inconsistent ball bashers (or those with poor movement) against anyone they are against, even mugs since they will self implode.
 
For today:

Mens:
Delbonis -2.5 (v Andujar) 1u @ 1.88 (SB)
Kecmanovic ML (v Djere) 1u @ 2.15 (SB)
Isner ML (v Krajinovic) 1u @ 2.05 (SB)

Womens:
Kontaveit v Mladenovic o20.5 1u @ 1.95 (Lads)
Gauff v Wang o19.5 1u @ 2.2 (Lads)
Kenin 2-0 (v Baptiste) 1u @ 2 (SB)
Buzarnescu ML (v Williams) 0.5u @ 6 (SB)
Buzarnescu to win 1 set 0.5u @ 2.6 (Lads)

I love getting on Williams to drop a set (esp. 1st set) in early rounds. I was posting it last year and I reckon it happens 50/50 while she is 'getting into it', so anything over about 2.2 attracts.
 
Did Medvedev tank that first set against Tommy Paul?

I put a small bet on Paul so I'm watching the match.

Medvedev was missing shots you wouldn't think he'd miss in the first set.

Jim Courier said as much (the missed shots), and now during the second set, has mentioned the unforced errors disappearing.

I don't think Courier is implying anything, and I don't blame him, given his job.

Even if he thinks there's something suss going on, he can't say it, can he?
 
Hamingja said:
Andujar (v Delbonis) @ $2.30
Kasatkina (v Bencic) @ $2.10
Colllins (v Kalinina) @ $2.10
Keys (v Fernandez) @ $1.90
Tauson (v Azarenka) @ $2.62
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3/5. Wrong side of the coinflip in the mens and Tauson was in the match but didn't have the experience to bring home the Azarenka fade. Tauson will be a good player moving forward.

Tough night to find anything much.

Basilashvili (v Alcaraz) @ $2.50.

Bringing the fade the hype lords to the French Open thread.
 

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Hamingja said:
3/5. Wrong side of the coinflip in the mens and Tauson was in the match but didn't have the experience to bring home the Azarenka fade. Tauson will be a good player moving forward.

Tough night to find anything much.

Basilashvili (v Alcaraz) @ $2.50.

Bringing the fade the hype lords to the French Open thread.
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There is a few I like tonight

Mens

Ajax Bedene (vs Swartzman) at $3.70 (Diego has been trash the whole prep)
Mikael Ymer (vs Monfils) at $2.95 (it's just typical Clownfils to lose to the next bloke after upsetting one the round prior

Womens

Sloane Stephens (vs Pliskova) at $2.99 (Pliskova isn't in some great form, Sloane plays well here)
Qiang Wang (vs Gauff) at $5.90 (small play, purely as she plays okay on clay)
 
Cecchinato $1.70 vs DeMinaur looks decent. Has a far superior record on clay, is 2-0 against Demon on Clay including a straight sets win at this tournament just last year. That'll do me.

Multi with Bedene to take a set off Diego ($1.50) @ $2.55
 
ricardogp said:
For today:

Mens:
Delbonis -2.5 (v Andujar) 1u @ 1.88 (SB)
Kecmanovic ML (v Djere) 1u @ 2.15 (SB)
Isner ML (v Krajinovic) 1u @ 2.05 (SB)
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W-L-W +0.93u Kecmanovic lost from 2-0 up...

ricardogp said:
Womens:
Kontaveit v Mladenovic o20.5 1u @ 1.95 (Lads)
Gauff v Wang o19.5 1u @ 2.2 (Lads)
Kenin 2-0 (v Baptiste) 1u @ 2 (SB)
Buzarnescu ML (v Williams) 0.5u @ 6 (SB)
Buzarnescu to win 1 set 0.5u @ 2.6 (Lads)

I love getting on Williams to drop a set (esp. 1st set) in early rounds. I was posting it last year and I reckon it happens 50/50 while she is 'getting into it', so anything over about 2.2 attracts.
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Buzarnescu wins a set. All others pending. +0.6u.
 
Mens:
Seppi ML (vs Kwon) 1u @ 2.10 (LB)
Ymer ML (vs Monfils) 1u @ 3 (SB)
Basilashvilli ML (v Alcaraz) 1u @ 2.4 (SB)
Cecchinato ML (v DeMinaur) 1u @ 1.73 (SB)

Womens:
Martincova ML (v Pegula) 0.5u @ 4.1 (SB)
Kostyuk -4.5 (v Zheng) 1u @ 1.72 (SB)
 
There are quite a few underdogs I like today.

Nishioka ($3.10) vs Musetti

Nishioka won against this guy in Parma a week ago. Why is he the underdog?

Bedene ($3.75) vs Schwartzman

Bedene is 2-1 h2h, 1-1 on clay.

Bedene also has a better recent record, has won a few matches lately, whereas Diego crashed out of three first rounds in a row prior to the French.

Ymer ($3.05) vs Monfils

Monfils was 1-9 coming into this tournament. Ymer not much better at 2-4 but at 3:1 odds, why not?

Cilic ($3.60) vs Federer

Cilic was 4-4 on this clay campaign, the Fed was 0-1. Obviously they both won their first round matches.

The Fed is 5-0 against Cilic but none of that was on clay. I'm going with the guy with a decent lead-in to this match.

These odds are all betfair. If you multi the lower odds on SB you get $117 (or $138 powered).
 

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2021 French Open Tennis Grand Slam

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