Review Dogs def Freo 93-65 - Rd 13, 2021

[Bulldogs Legend]

Not sure if anyone cares but...

Someone who works at the club told me that when Bruce came off in the first or second quarter it was because he needed to poop.

Airline food will do that to you

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

Practice, routine, muscle memory and repetition.

Any sport that requires accuracy, from golf to tennis to nfl kickers to basketball shooters, will tell you the same thing.

Steph Curry:

View attachment 1149432
Kobe Bryant:

View attachment 1149433

View attachment 1149434
Imagine a sports scientist telling Bryant he wasn't allowed to shoot that much...

And yet he still missed free throws

 

[ScragCity]

In the modern era, there has been a concern from sport scientists that "too much" set shot practising can cause injuries, hence why many players are stopped from going down the "thousands of set shots" path of improving their kicking.

Historically however, many players have proven that you can go down that path, and have a relative injury free career.

There are many involved at the top levels of the game today who disagree with the current recommendations.

I just don't get this belittling, dismissive outlook towards some ideas, just because they're posted on an internet forum - why discuss anything on here, when the experts supposedly have it all covered and shouldn't be questioned?

There's are quite a few posters, whether it be drafting, trades, selection, sports science, sport management that have some valuable info to offer on here.

I absolutely agree. I was making fun of the idea because I don't think it has any merit, not because it was posted on Bigfooty. I consider myself a member of the BBT and I like to think we can take the piss out of ourselves occasionally. I just find it funny that people think that AFL coaches are too dimwitted to think of goalkicking practice or are scared of disobeying their overlords, the evil sports scientists. This is a billion dollar industry in which each club is desperate to find any slight edge on the competition - they've thought of goal kicking practice.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

And these people don't understand the world in a statistical way and/or do not have training in physical performance and sports science.


There's two points to this:

This is just an assertion that can be proven. I would argue there's very few players in the current professionalised AFL that have demonstrated an ability to significantly improve their goalkicking. Good goalkickers remain such through their career, as do bad ones. The ones who do improve is simply random (ie among hundreds of AFL players, of course 1 or 2 will appear to have improved. But say you flipped 100 coins twice, then repeated that 300 times. Out of that 300, there will be a couple in which you flipped 40 heads the first time, then 60 heads the second times).

I also believe that the construction of the AFL made goalkicking accuracy more important in the past, which is why you say "historically" but that doesn't necessarily apply to today.

For example, in 1987, a full 3.8% of St Kilda's total kicks as a team were Lockett's scoring shots. As such, the importance of Lockett's accuracy was a significant impact on St Kilda. On the other hand, Naughton's kicks for goal are only 2.1% of our total kicks as a team, making the importance of accuracy less important than what goes on in a game overall.

Just by that raw metric, the importance of Naughton's goalkicking this season is only 55% as important of the importance of Lockett's that year.

You’ve constructed lots of statistically valid and logical arguments. I accept the validity of much of what you have posited. I still don’t accept that having 30 kicks after match practice with a specialist kicking coach isn’t worth the effort. Nor do I accept a position that something most athletes do (extra work to refine their skill set see Steph Curry and other examples above) will have any material difference on Astro’s ability to run out games. The sports scientists have reached peak control freak status in that regard and it’s frankly utter BS.

 

[Guido]

It's foolish to think that it's through that work that the difference in variation of 50% and 70% was just that. There's simply no evidence for it.

It's more likely that it added a couple of percent.

How do we know?

Because the literal difference between the best and worst current AFL players in the AFL don't vary anywhere near between 50% and 70%

I'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly.

The first attachment is across many decades, but there are multiple modern players above 70% and multiple below 40%.

Even in any recent seasons (attachment was from 2019 or 2020), there are many players well below 45%, and others above 75%.

And if the average goal kicking accuracy is 50%, it generally means that there will be quite a significant variance to both sides of that.

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

A big part of goal kicking is mental and it’s difficult to recreate that in practice. It’s for the same reason top golfers still miss putts

Maybe the answer is not thousands of shots but working with someone who helps your mental game

 

[SupercededMan]

Agree ,but hard to compare as Kelvin was often double and triple teamed due to playing in a sh*t team.
And Kelvin used to kick them from a long way out.Naughton is more like a Paul Roos type.Just Gold ..Can play any position and dominate that's why he is better.

I was around to see the twilight of EJ's career, and my Dad reckons that bloke could play anywhere, and star.

WRT Templeton, his best was at CHF, where he won a Brownlow. That year was sublime, I'd say the equal of any of our Brownlow Medallists in the medal-winning years. He was a beast, an absolute monster who terrified the opposition. Naughty is very, very exciting, but not a patch (IMO) on what Templeton was.

Naughty is still only 21, and improving at an incredible rate. I hope he does become as good as Kelvin. Twice in my lifetime, I'd die a very happy Bulldog.

 

[ScragCity]

Sorry but I believe every word of this is nonsense and you are also arguing points no one ever made to reinforce YOUR opinion.

Tory Dickson was an average footy player that was rated better DUE TO HIS GOAL KICKING accuracy.

We have bemoaned in here for the last few years how poor our kicking for goal is. There is no logical argument that says kicking 10-10 isnt far better than 5-15.

No amount of you bemoaning something makes it more or less true.

 

[SupercededMan]

Did anyone else notice that a bombers supporter made a post in our match day thread saying "we look cooked," or something similar? I'm not sure what to make of that. One possibility is that someone on our board has a second account with which they pose as a Bomber's supporter and troll their board and they accidentally posted from the wrong account. If that's the case it's a bit sad but also pretty funny. The alternative though is much more troubling. What if there's a Bomber's supporter with a second account with which they are posing as one of us and trolling our board? Could there be a mole on here - a deep undercover Bomber's fan? I've found myself regarding all of you with a deep suspicion, looking for cracks in the facade.

My brain hurts after reading that :-(

 

[Proffessor]

You're reading way too much into it if you think I'm trying to subtly undermine Cordy. (It's hard to know from your wording whether you were referring to me or to others).

FWIW I have no particular preference for either player. Like most of us here I'm just trying to work out what's the best solution we can come up with. At the moment it's a watching brief, especially since last night was the first chance we got to see all three talls (Keath, Cordy, Gardner) playing in the same defensive unit. Sounds like we might persist with that for a few weeks at least.

I also happen to think more people come gunning for Gardner than Cordy but that's just my perception. I haven't bothered keeping a tally. Clearly both are whipping boys at times.

I wasn't suggesting that subtly undermining Cordy was your intent, rather that it is the inevitable result of statements like the one I noted in your post, which is similar to statements made by others who have been critical of Cordy and supportive of replacing him with Gardner or others.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

1) there's a statistical basis to sampling and regressing to the mean. You can't selectively choose Bruce's kicking this season and ignore his last year, because he still is the same player.

2) Bruce has kicked multiple goals from the goalsquare (more than Naughton, think about the North game)

View attachment 1149510

Per shot charting the league average for his 12 shots was to kick 8 goals, given about 6 of the shots were less than 20m out.

I would argue that Bruce is NOT the same player from last year. He's fitter, more agile and playing with much more confidence than last year. Could this all contribute to him being a better kick for goal this year? Absolutely.

I would also argue that if 48 was the expected score for Bruce's game against North then it is more likely to have come from a scoreline of 7.5 rather than 8.0 which you have suggested.

Arguing over 10.2 v 7.5 in a game against Norf might seem arbitrary but I tell you what, if we are 5 points down in a prelim and one of our big boys takes a mark 30m out directly in front to win the game, I know who I'd rather have with the ball in his hands.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly.

The first attachment is across many decades, but there are multiple players above 70% and multiple below 40%.

Even in any recent seasons, there are many players well below 45%, and others above 75%.

And if the average goal kicking accuracy is 50%, it generally means that there will be quite a significant variance to both sides of that.

In small sample sizes, some players take a much higher proportion of shots from the goalsquare, and others from outside 50. For example, Jason Johannisen has kicked 52.56 goals in his career. But being a running half-back flanker, for most of his career, a large portion of his shots have come from running shots at goal 40+m out. He could very well be around league average accuracy for the locations he's taken his shot.

Josh Jenkins on the other hand has kicked 296.171 in his career but he's very much built a reputation of a player who has a disproportionate amount of shots from the goalsquare. Remember that game in 2016 against us where he kicked 8 straight, about 6 from the goalsquare?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I know who I'd rather have with the ball in his hands.

And I know Naughton is more likely than any other player in the league to take that mark in the first place.

And I know that he might have taken that mark because he either did more time on the weights machine than kicking for goal.

And I know that he might have pulled his hamstring if he did extra goalkicking practice during the entire week.

That's what I've been droning on about this entire thread.

 

[immortalmike]

I'm loathe to bring it up but is anyone else worried about Daniel's lack of physicality?
He was shrugged so easily by all and sundry last night as well as pushed out of contests with barely a second thought.

If he's going to be attending centre bounces this can't be happening as it will just create a revolving door.

 

[SupercededMan]

Blasphemy, Kelvin is the greatest ive ever seen, a freak pre-knees

Just about everyone who saw him play at his best would agree. Would even shade Wayne Carey, I think, but I'd take Carey for sustained performance over a longer period.

Naughty might just become that good, but not yet (and Carey, Templeton WERE that good at the same age.

 

[mcgleereturns]

Naughts had a bad kicking game. He missed some sitters and has before. But he also kicked 4.0 against Port and 4 straight in the second half against the Aints. Tends to be poor in the first half then hardly misses once he gets on a roll in the second. I think it’s part concentration which is fixable because he can kick it well and part routine because it’s not a consistent action. He stabs off a couple of steps when 20 out and misses and kicks through it from further out and gets them more consistently. Nearly always goes left rather than hooks so it’s mechanical. Even his 100% miss ratio from the hook around the body from the near pocket is consistent - misses to the near side. Just has to iron out those flaws and he will become fairly consistent. Doesn’t need a massive practice regime just a focus on a consistent technique to maintain. And I’ve been to a few Captains Run training sessions this year. Players took shots for about 10 minutes. Usually fairly relaxed. Maybe Naughton could use those short goal kicking sessions in a more focused way with someone advising him and it wouldn’t impact on the sport science part.


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[Wetdog]

I wouldn't put Williams in that group at moment has not looked quite the same since coming back from injury, has a few more gears, preinjury he was elite, since coming back he has been ok, there is improvement to come from him.

It just goes to show that we need to get a few AFL games into our returning players (Wood, Treloar, Dunkley, McLean) before finals. They need a reasonable build up as you cannot expect them to hit top form immediately.

 

[SupercededMan]

Totally agree, dogs aren't winning finals or flags with him and Roarke in the side, no chance. Whilst Roarke wasn't the "worst" player yesterday, I think you'll be hard pressed to find any others who played the full game that did less than. Deer in headlights when he does get the ball.
Not sold on Hannan, but shows more than those two. Can Hannan play back? Couldnt be worse than Gards.

Funny thing to me is that the other whipping boy of the backline, Cordy, DID play in a Premiership team, even kicked the first goal in our GF.

There must be something Bev sees in him that the BigFooty MC can't.

 

[Guido]

50 scoring shots is not statistically relevant.

Does the main point not hold true? That accuracy can vary significantly?

And if one key forward kicks 17.33, and another 38.12 in the same season, I think it would be pretty relevant to the team involved.

 

[Mattdougie]

I'm loathe to bring it up but is anyone else worried about Daniel's lack of physicality?
He was shrugged so easily by all and sundry last night as well as pushed out of contests with barely a second thought.

If he's going to be attending centre bounces this can't be happening as it will just create a revolving door.

Not really

He is only in there as a stop gap at the moment and was infinitely better than Lipi.

 

[ScragCity]

I'm loathe to bring it up but is anyone else worried about Daniel's lack of physicality?
He was shrugged so easily by all and sundry last night as well as pushed out of contests with barely a second thought.

If he's going to be attending centre bounces this can't be happening as it will just create a revolving door.

He's just a tiny dude. There's not much that can be done about it. His skills and decision making still make him a net positive though so happy to take the good with the bad. I'm not convinced he should be part of the centre bounce rotation yet but I'm open minded and keen to see how it goes.

 

[Golden_6]

I'm loathe to bring it up but is anyone else worried about Daniel's lack of physicality?
He was shrugged so easily by all and sundry last night as well as pushed out of contests with barely a second thought.

If he's going to be attending centre bounces this can't be happening as it will just create a revolving door.

I’m not thrilled with him in the guts just because of his sheer size but we may have to put up with it for now. The more interesting thing is Baz being completely cut from the centre bounce rotation and moved back to the wing.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Does the main point not hold true? That accuracy can vary significantly?

And if one key forward kicks 17.33, and another 38.12 in the same season, I think it would be pretty relevant to the team involved.

There's significantly more variation in the location that players take their shot from over a small sample than you would think.

 

[doggies ftw]

A big part of goal kicking is mental and it’s difficult to recreate that in practice. It’s for the same reason top golfers still miss putts

Maybe the answer is not thousands of shots but working with someone who helps your mental game

Agreed that it’s mental, and probably fatigue and totally agree that we can’t compare stats of goal kickers in the past to now due to the amount of extra work they do. But these two factors are more reason why it’s so important to have a solid routine and a mountain of work behind you in training to look back on. No ones saying It’s gonna be the difference between Naughty going back and kicking 9.0 from all over the park but when he finds himself 30m out directly in front he’s going to be a lot more comfortable and reliable when he knows he’s been putting in the work and nails this same kick 9 in 10 times at training during the week. Right now you can see it in his face he has no confidence when he’s lining up for those kicks.

He only has to wipe out the really bad misses and improve slightly and it will make a huge difference in his game which will then have major flow on effects to other parts of his game, and in turn the rest of the team.

 

[SupercededMan]

I'm loathe to bring it up but is anyone else worried about Daniel's lack of physicality?
He was shrugged so easily by all and sundry last night as well as pushed out of contests with barely a second thought.

If he's going to be attending centre bounces this can't be happening as it will just create a revolving door.

To me it seemed that after a couple of errors/poor kicks, his confidence deserted him, and he made more use of handballs, and then with less precision. I was watching with my stepson [also on this board ], and (I think!) he agreed.