Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Mitchell Madness]

Four year deal for Newcombe seems like overkill. Will be interesting to see how he develops. Huge investment.

1 - media had it wrong
2 - he's an apprentice who would have had to give up his job to focus on footy, he needed the certainty short term. That's called being smart

 

[HairyO]

1 - media had it wrong
2 - he's an apprentice who would have had to give up his job to focus on footy, he needed the certainty short term. That's called being smart

And it was his demand. Not Hawthorn's.

A smart move for him protecting himself for 2.5 years minimum. Now he has to work even harder than at Box Hill and make the investment worth it.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

1 - media had it wrong
2 - he's an apprentice who would have had to give up his job to focus on footy, he needed the certainty short term. That's called being smart

My criticism wasn’t with Newcombe.

2.5 years is reasonable. He gets that at the national draft in 6 months anyway.

 

[Leeda]

There you go. That’s far more reasonable.

But are you right..?shuffling in my slippers... am ol’ man hawk..

 

[Freomaniac]

Not really comparable. Drew Banfield was a solid player for a long period, but if Mark Nicoski hadn't got injured it's iffy he would've even been in the side in 2006. Guys like Braun, Fletcher, Hunter, Stenglein played a few years after 2006 but dropped off.

Our 2006 flag side was pretty young. Judd, Kerr, Cox, Glass 23-25 and 100+ games experience. Cousins 28, Wirrpanda 27, reasonable to expect those guys would play at a high level for a while yet. Obviously things didn't pan out (Cousins sacked, Judd trade, Kerr injury, Wirra retired young etc.) but that's footy. In a parallel universe with Judd for his whole career we probably do a Carlton and hover around 5th-8th for a few years then drop off. The cliff came quickly and getting Kennedy in the Judd trade, Naitanui and Shuey from sucking, Gaff and Darling etc. helped set us up for the mid to late 2010s.

WC 2006 are more comparable to Hawthorn 2008. Crawford the only player over 30, Franklin, Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead etc. all early to mid 20s with 80-100+ games experience. That side won a flag which came earlier than most thought it would, then spent a couple of years as a good but not great side while some more pieces were added. Took them years to replace Croad with Lake which was pivotal. Then 3peat and 4 GFs a row and inevitable decline.

If you wanted to compare WC and Hawthorn then Haw 2016 are in a similar position to WC now. Is there enough in our 27/28 and under tank to warrant trading away our draft future for the next couple of years? I would say no, assuming that players like Dusty, Bont, Petracca etc. aren't serious options. But there's a whole 'WC 2021' thread for that. We've been recruiting for the 2020s for about 5 years, our issue is not converting 2019 and 2020 into more successful seasons.

As I said, that eagles midfield was deep : Judd, Cousins, Kerr, Embley, Banfield, Braun, Stenglein, Sam Butler, Adam Selwood.

That 2006 Premiership side was the 3rd youngest in the comp and said a lot at the time. But Saying that.... Imagine if Chris Judd Stayed at West coast beyond 2007? Say if Judd Stayed at west coast for 2-3 more years until 2009 or 2010? It would change a lot of things. 1st off, you wouldnt of got Josh Kennedy and then Chris Masten for pick 3 in 2007. Also..... Losing just Cousins. Kerr and Judd being the main mids at west coast, plus some of the other experenced mids in that side in 2008, Probably would of made finals in 2008. That means no Nic Nat in the 2008 draft.

As I said Imagine if Judd was traded off in 2009 and West coast fall into a heap in 2010 and finish bottom 4. Would they still get gaff, Lycett, Darling and McGovern?

Again..... I dont know. But there are so many Varibles had Chris Judd stayed at west coast for another 2-3 years

 

[Freomaniac]

I’m still seeing our next flag come before at least half of the other teams get one if at all. Mind you that’s quite a conservative estimate.

You are probably right

‘we slacked off for 18 years and ‘only’ 9 teams ‘saluted’ in that time.

as an said, it’s a pretty conservative statement. The club knows how to do this.

Fremantles half a decade away from 35 yrs no flag.. like the hawks 1925-61

Yeah I sadly dont think Fremantle will win a premiership anytime soon, if ever.

Maybe.

But Richmond forgot how to do it from the early 80’s to 2017.

Carlton likewise from mid 90’s to ?

I have said this about richmonds side. From 1983-2012 they only made finals in only 2 years out of 30. The 1st year when we had 8 teams in finals was 1994. Look at the amount of times Richmond finished 9th: 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006, and 2008. Turn all those 9th placed finishes into 8th and Matty Richardsons career would of been looked back in a better way, thats another 6 finals minimum he would of played, not just 2001.

Past success doesn't guarantee future success i agree.

A lot of our supporters think it will just happen because it did in the past.

Again, you proabably will see the hawks get a flag by the end of this decade. Hawks have seen at least 1 flag in each decade since the 1960s.

Caro - “hawks list management over the last 6 years is the worst there’s ever been”

Mate..... The WWF had its Golden era of 1984-1992 Lead by Hulk Hogan. Then Came the New Generation Era of 1993-1997 lead by that bloke on your avatar photo of Bret Hart. Then comes the attitude era of 1998-2001 Lead by steve Austin.

The Hawks had their Golden era or Hulkamania era. Now they have to have that dire New generation era, before the Attitude era.

 

[bumsonseats]

Did you catch the score on the weekend? Who’s future do you think looks better right now?

The old look at the scoreboard trick hey.

I got something for you to look at



I only included the ones since GC came into the competition and blew all their top 10 picks.
Needless to say there is more where this comes from

Read em and weep

 

[bumsonseats]

This thread



Good to see nothing has changed

 

[aucklandhawk]

Would like to see a list of players picked behind Hawthorn that have gone on to do well and those that have done not so well. Interesting to see what strike rate other clubs have also had during this period where Hawthorn have suppose to have ignored the draft.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

The old look at the scoreboard trick hey.

I got something for you to look at

View attachment 1145392

I only included the ones since GC came into the competition and blew all their top 10 picks.
Needless to say there is more where this comes from

Read em and weep

They sold Jaeger with the same photo. Too bad little has happened since then.

 

[bumsonseats]

They sold Jaeger with the same photo. Too bad little has happened since then.

We have achieved about as much as your club in the same time.......nothing

I would have walked him through to the PSD. No one else would have touched him without doing a medical.

 

[Psicosis]

Would like to see a list of players picked behind Hawthorn that have gone on to do well and those that have done not so well. Interesting to see what strike rate other clubs have also had during this period where Hawthorn have suppose to have ignored the draft.

Only would be relevant if you included the draft picks that you’ve traded out.

 

[Freomaniac]

Yeah, we haven't. We got a handful of high draft picks about 10 years ago (Cotch, Dusty, Vlastuin, Rance, Jack) and then surrounded them with lots of really low draft or rookie list picks (Short, Grimes, Astbury, KMac, Castagna, Broad etc.) and rare few trades (Nank, Prestia, Caddy, Maric pre-flags). And one free agent.

Maybe our scouts were really good at it, or maybe we've just got lucky. Probably a fair pinch of both I reckon.

I have mentioned this before and will again...

Equalization..... You finish bottom you get early picks to get a gun player or 2. You make finals, you wont get early picks unless you trade.



Yes, Richmond got most of their core players in that 2006-09 period.

Got Riewoldt in 2006 with a 1st rounder.

Got Cotchin and Rance with picks 2 and 18 in 2007. Crazy to think Richmond were going to trade those picks to get Chris Judd.

2008 was the unfortunate one. Tyrone Vickery with the 1st rounder, Jayden Post with the 2nd rounder.

Dustin Martin at Pick 3 in 2009.



Saying that.... I have already posted this...

Freo made finals from 2012-15.

Again.... Look at the 1st rounders Freo used them on....

2012: Josh Simpson as pick 12. Talented mid but wasnt motivated to improve.

2013: Michael Apeness at pick 17. I could see why freo chose him at the time, a 200 cm KPF/Ruck. Made sense as Freo didnt have a lot of KPFs out side of An Ageing matty pavlich.

2014: Lachie Weller at pick 14. Easily the est 1st rounder used in this 2012-15 period. Got traded for pick 2 in 2017 and used it for Brayshaw.

2015: Traded picks 16 and 34 for Harley Bennell and pick 22, which was pushed back to pick 28 due to free agency, father son etc. Which ended up as Darcy tucker.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

If Hawthorn could seriously get a pick in the top 20 for Mitchell then they’d be stupid not to try to do it, especially given they have Worpel anyway.

Those first round picks are like gold for a rebuild.

Interesting there's now talk around this, though it's probably just the media reading BigFooty again.

In any case, it's a smart move. Mitchell is the one to trade.

 

[HeHateMe]

Interesting there's now talk around this, though it's probably just the media reading BigFooty again.

In any case, it's a smart move. Mitchell is the one to trade.

I'm unsure if it would get done tbh, hawthorn would won't overs from what is reported and commonly consider fair.

The club's messaging around trading established players dating back to Jeff's email to the members before last year's trade period has been everyone is on the table for the right price and the club will look at every avanue to improve the list.

If Richmond wanted Mitch they could have got him last year tbh... I'm sure clubs enquired but nothing got done.

 

[Obeanie1]

Well considering the Hawks and Mitchell are looking at a mutually agreed trade that would suggest the Hawks are changing strategy.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

They sold Jaeger with the same photo. Too bad little has happened since then.

I know this is just turned into a petty pissing contest but...

Jaeger never said he was moving for success. He highlighted that he wanted to team up with the medical team that supported him at the AIS as he felt his injury had been mismanaged at GC. He knew Hawthorn's medicos well and appreciated their assessment and recommendations for his injury.

Given he was unable to play a single game at GC in the 2 years since his injury and has now played 62 of the last 74 matches (including unrelated misses like concussion), I think his decision has been justified. He just wanted to consistently get on the park and have a career before worrying about how many flags he won, which I think is fair enough.

Besides, he has at least finished top 4 and played in finals at Hawthorn, remains to be seen if GC will get there in his time (assuming he would have actually gotten on the park had he stayed).

 

[Psicosis]

The rebuild ladder: Where does your club sit?

Which club has taken the most first and second-round picks over the past six years

www.afl.com.au

First and second-round picks taken

CLUB	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	TOTAL
GWS	3	4	3	5	2	3	20
Brisbane	3	4	3	4	3	1	18
Gold Coast	3	4	1	4	4	1	17
Adelaide	2	1	1	3	4	5	16
North Melbourne	3	3	2	1	3	4	16
Carlton	4	2	3	2	2	2	15
Essendon	4	3	0	1	2	4	14
Fremantle	2	3	2	2	3	2	14
Sydney	1	2	2	2	4	3	14
Melbourne	2	0	3	2	3	3	13
Port Adelaide	1	4	0	3	4	1	13
Collingwood	1	2	1	2	1	5	12
Richmond	1	1	4	2	3	1	12
West Coast	2	2	4	4	0	0	12
Western Bulldogs	3	2	2	3	1	1	12
Geelong	0	2	3	1	3	2	11
St Kilda	1	2	3	2	0	1	9
Hawthorn	2	0	0	0	2	3	7

Gives a reality how far back Hawthorn are starting from, particularly compared to other rebuilding sides Adelaide & North.

 

[Pessimistic]

The rebuild ladder: Where does your club sit?

Which club has taken the most first and second-round picks over the past six years

www.afl.com.au

First and second-round picks taken

CLUB	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	TOTAL
GWS	3	4	3	5	2	3	20
Brisbane	3	4	3	4	3	1	18
Gold Coast	3	4	1	4	4	1	17
Adelaide	2	1	1	3	4	5	16
North Melbourne	3	3	2	1	3	4	16
Carlton	4	2	3	2	2	2	15
Essendon	4	3	0	1	2	4	14
Fremantle	2	3	2	2	3	2	14
Sydney	1	2	2	2	4	3	14
Melbourne	2	0	3	2	3	3	13
Port Adelaide	1	4	0	3	4	1	13
Collingwood	1	2	1	2	1	5	12
Richmond	1	1	4	2	3	1	12
West Coast	2	2	4	4	0	0	12
Western Bulldogs	3	2	2	3	1	1	12
Geelong	0	2	3	1	3	2	11
St Kilda	1	2	3	2	0	1	9
Hawthorn	2	0	0	0	2	3	7

Gives a reality how far back Hawthorn are starting from, particularly compared to other rebuilding sides Adelaide & North.

I don’t think the author is being totally objective when you add that GWS has collingwoods first round pick and hawthorn had their second rounder

 

[Psicosis]

I don’t think the author is being totally objective when you add that GWS has collingwoods first round pick and hawthorn had their second rounder

The table provides a pretty clear picture of where the rebuilding clubs are at in terms of top end talent that they've brought in though.

You'd imagine that the Hawks would be looking at 8-10 over the next 2 drafts, which requires quite significant list turn over.

 

[H00t]

The rebuild ladder: Where does your club sit?

Which club has taken the most first and second-round picks over the past six years

www.afl.com.au

First and second-round picks taken

CLUB	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	TOTAL
GWS	3	4	3	5	2	3	20
Brisbane	3	4	3	4	3	1	18
Gold Coast	3	4	1	4	4	1	17
Adelaide	2	1	1	3	4	5	16
North Melbourne	3	3	2	1	3	4	16
Carlton	4	2	3	2	2	2	15
Essendon	4	3	0	1	2	4	14
Fremantle	2	3	2	2	3	2	14
Sydney	1	2	2	2	4	3	14
Melbourne	2	0	3	2	3	3	13
Port Adelaide	1	4	0	3	4	1	13
Collingwood	1	2	1	2	1	5	12
Richmond	1	1	4	2	3	1	12
West Coast	2	2	4	4	0	0	12
Western Bulldogs	3	2	2	3	1	1	12
Geelong	0	2	3	1	3	2	11
St Kilda	1	2	3	2	0	1	9
Hawthorn	2	0	0	0	2	3	7

Gives a reality how far back Hawthorn are starting from, particularly compared to other rebuilding sides Adelaide & North.

Problem is you could go back even further and the hawks would be on the bottom of this list since at least 09.

From 09-2018 we had 3 first rounders (Smith, Burton and Lovell). It makes for horrific reading as a hawks supporter. Not sure how many seconds we had. But the main success I can think of has left (Hill).

Hawthorn has been allergic to the draft for quite a while. Or at least they seem to be given how they have avoided it for so long. Hoping that continues to change as 19-20 has shown. But need it to still turn further

 

[H00t]

Except for those drafted in the last 2 drafts, hawthorn only have 3 first and second rounders that they have drafted on their list. And all 3 are second rounders (Shiels, O’Brien and Howe)

There are many recipes to success, that ain’t one of them though.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Does the Buckley news have implications for hawthorn?

 

[tonygeeks]

I don’t think the author is being totally objective when you add that GWS has collingwoods first round pick and hawthorn had their second rounder

The writer hasn’t been objective by not including drafts that haven’t happened yet ?

You know you can look up the meaning of words on the internet now


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com

 

[Pessimistic]

A casual glance earlier in this thread which is probably on its 5th revolution by now will show posts asking what’s so special about drafting untried youngsters in the first rounds of the draft compared to known quantities traded in who were themselves first round picks.

you get less of their career, but you get a much better hit ratio than 45% which is the ratio of draftees making it