You can throw all the numbers at me as you like.lol
Drafting isn't an exact science.
Part Planning/Development/Luck.
Ironically we could be the case study into how and why.
WTF did we turn Rookies into premiership players etc.lol
I just think with a top 5 pick.You'd get it more right than wrong.
You’re totally correct, it isn’t an exact science. To me there two ways of maximising the odds. One is to try and get a top five pick, but that is extraordinarily difficult and expensive. The other is have as many balls as possible in the lottery. That's why I would always prefer say multiple picks in the teens than say one in the top ten. You can always get sliders who turn out to be top ten talents. Plus clubs rates draftees differently. A perfect example is Bolton who we took at 29 but the Magpies on their board had him at 11 (and whom were famously distraught that we did so as they had the next pick).
Anyhow unless you are guaranteed another Dustin Martin, I always prefer as many picks as possible in the top 20 or 30, especially if it's a strong draft. You can address more needs and you do have more chances to snare another Bolton or Fyfe or Cripps or Rance or Riewoldt or Grundy etc etc. Plus I'll be honest it just makes draft night more exciting.