Analysis "The Fog" Will he make it?

[Southerntakeover]

Disposals are a rough stat at the best of times to get anything out of. That said, a good descriptor for Fogarty's woes in this regard is out of the 65 key forwards to register single disposal, our boy is 59th (should be 57th, seeing how afl stats treat medical sub appearances). Though of course, that might also plummet Fogs rating seeing everyone below him is injured, a garbage footballer (Schace), or victims of the medical sub themselves.

He's certainly in the conversation for the worst key forward playing regularly at getting the ball. Probably the deserved number 1 due to time served, seeing the others around him are Harry Jones and Josh Treacy who were drafted in the last two years and are physically underdeveloped.

The other issue is that the disposal count really hasn't moved for four years. No matter the decrease from 4 key forwards to 3, or getting fitter/stronger, positional changes, or anything really. It all just looks like a kid who showed some promise but ultimately doesn't have a future at this level. That's not to say we should discard Fog at the moment, our other options are worse after all, so we may as well cling onto dear life and hope that somehow he finds the magic spell that transforms him into an AFL standard footballer, or until we're able to bring in another key forward (and get them up to speed depending on if we draft or trade for it).

There's a tendency to conflate the symptom with the cause. We failed to meaningfully develop Fog in the last four years- you know, when we refused to play him in favour of guys that aren't even on our list any more, and moved him out of position constantly, all with a forward line coach that wasnt worth a pinch of shit. Smart people constantly called that out.

Having made that failure, people now turn up early in the piece and raise the lack of development as a slam on him.

 

[skam85]

There's a tendency to conflate the symptom with the cause. We failed to meaningfully develop Fog in the last four years- you know, when we refused to play him in favour of guys that aren't even on our list any more, and moved him out of position constantly, all with a forward line coach that wasnt worth a pinch of sh*t. Smart people constantly called that out.

Having made that failure, people now turn up early in the piece and raise the lack of development as a slam on him.

Don't forget playing him in defence for half a year

 

[WeedsMullet84]

There's a tendency to conflate the symptom with the cause. We failed to meaningfully develop Fog in the last four years- you know, when we refused to play him in favour of guys that aren't even on our list any more, and moved him out of position constantly, all with a forward line coach that wasnt worth a pinch of sh*t. Smart people constantly called that out.

Having made that failure, people now turn up early in the piece and raise the lack of development as a slam on him.

Yeah it's all the clubs fault. Typical Southerntakeover post

 

[Vader]

Yeah it's all the clubs fault. Typical Southerntakeover post

Best just to ignore anything STO writes about Fogarty. He's completely blinded by his fanboism, and writes complete and utter nonsense as a result.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

"Adelaide fan posts supportingly about maligned young player"

What a loon

 

[skam85]

Best just to ignore anything STO writes about Fogarty. He's completely blinded by his fanboism, and writes complete and utter nonsense as a result.

 

[Cap]

I watched the Brisbane v Geelong game again, Eric Hipwood lined up for his third, the commentator commented that despite the low disposal count, 3 goals was job done.

Hipwood is obviously a different type of player, but he's averaging 11.5 touches v Fog 7.5 so getting it a bit more, but still we aren't talking sheep stations

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

So Fog has similar stat's to Max King. No need to panic, don't think people are calling for Max's head

Interesting reading. fog averages one more effective disposals per game. Is 10 months older.

 

[Vader]

Interesting reading. fog averages one more effective disposals per game. Is 10 months older.
View attachment 1168348

2.7 scoring shots vs 1.5 for Fogarty is a key difference.

 

[Zzzuuuppp]

2.7 scoring shots vs 1.5 for Fogarty is a key difference.

So, you're saying that because Max King kicks a lot more behinds, that means Fogarty is well off Max King in terms of development? Interesting....

 

[Vhaluus]

2.7 scoring shots vs 1.5 for Fogarty is a key difference.

Strongly disagree, if you're just using scoring shots as your metric then you're deliberately obfuscating the scoreboard impact difference.

Unless you have some compelling reason to suggest that Fogarty isn't going to maintain a similar accuracy level your argument is disingenuous at best.

 

[skam85]

2.7 scoring shots vs 1.5 for Fogarty is a key difference.

So Max King has one more shot on goal per game than Fog, in which he scores a behind... and that's the key difference?

 

[Scorpus]

If only Fogarty contributed 1 extra point per game.

Ah well. Delist.

 

[Cap]

2.7 scoring shots vs 1.5 for Fogarty is a key difference.

given the main argument for Fog is that he kicks goals, that a fair point too.

looking at this years averages, its 8.2 Disposals to Fog v 9.5 to Max King. Fog going at 1.5 goals and .4 behinds v King 1.4 and 1.8 behinds.

that extra kick and a half is going essentially to kicking a point.

I'm not anyone can defend Fogs need to get the ball more. Even the coaches are saying that.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Consider that Fog was in the team in early 2018. That’s three and a half years ago.

Of course, he couldn’t play most of that year, or 2019, because we were just a whisker away from premiership glory both of those years, and you can’t risk playing youngsters when you’re that close to a flag.

 

[Vader]

So, you're saying that because Max King kicks a lot more behinds, that means Fogarty is well off Max King in terms of development? Interesting....

King will eventually fix his accuracy problems. It's doubtful if Fogarty will ever significantly increase the number of contests he gets to, and thus his number of scoring shots.

 

[Vader]

given the main argument for Fog is that he kicks goals, that a fair point too.

looking at this years averages, its 8.2 Disposals to Fog v 9.5 to Max King. Fog going at 1.5 goals and .4 behinds v King 1.4 and 1.8 behinds.

that extra kick and a half is going essentially to kicking a point.

I'm not anyone can defend Fogs need to get the ball more. Even the coaches are saying that.

Sooner or later King is going to fix his inaccuracy problem - at which point he starts kicking 2 goals & 0.8 behinds per game. He also competes in the air, bringing the ball to ground if he doesn't mark it - thereby bringing the smalls into the game.

Fogarty's output is unlikely to increase significantly, and he doesn't bring other players into the game.

 

[Betts are off]

2.7 scoring shots vs 1.5 for Fogarty is a key difference.

Actually i'll think you'll find the key difference is the 43 behinds Max kicked on his way to 40 goals

 

[Vader]

Actually i'll think you'll find the key difference is the 43 behinds Max kicked on his way to 40 goals

He'll fix that... but Fog won't increase his output to match.

Max also brings his teammates into the game, by bringing the ball to ground if/when he doesn't mark it. Fog doesn't do that either.

 

[1990crow]

He'll fix that... but Fog won't increase his output to match.

Max also brings his teammates into the game, by bringing the ball to ground if/when he doesn't mark it. Fog doesn't do that either.

How could you possibly now that

 

[Betts are off]

He'll fix that... but Fog won't increase his output to match.

Max also brings his teammates into the game, by bringing the ball to ground if/when he doesn't mark it. Fog doesn't do that either.

What are you basing that on? There is zero precedent of 202cm players with 48% goalkicking accuracy over 2 years all of a sudden becoming deadeyes in front of goal? I couldn't name a single player who falls into that category.

Fog on the other hand is a 21 year old KPF, in his 4th season starting to find his place in a crowded forward line. In footy terms that's a tale as old as time

 

[Vader]

What are you basing that on? There is zero precedent of 202cm players with 48% goalkicking accuracy over 2 years all of a sudden becoming deadeyes in front of goal? I couldn't name a single player who falls into that category.

Fog on the other hand is a 21 year old KPF, in his 4th season starting to find his place in a crowded forward line. In footy terms that's a tale as old as time

He doesn't need to become a "deadeye". He's taking almost twice as many shots as Fogarty. Even if he only improves his accuracy by 30%, he'll still be kicking a lot more goals than Fog.

Equally important is the way he brings other players into the game, by bringing the ball to ground in marking contests (if he doesn't mark it himself). That generates more goals for his team, even if he's not kicking them himself. Fogarty doesn't do that.

 

[Betts are off]

He doesn't need to become a "deadeye". He's taking almost twice as many shots as Fogarty. Even if he only improves his accuracy by 30%, he'll still be kicking a lot more goals than Fog.

Equally important is the way he brings other players into the game, by bringing the ball to ground in marking contests (if he doesn't mark it himself). That generates more goals for his team, even if he's not kicking them himself. Fogarty doesn't do that.

Still what are you basing his 30% improvement on vs Fogs inability to get 1-2 more shots on goal?

And the other is an unmeasured statistic. So how can you compare the 2 outside of ‘the eye test’?

 

[Scorpus]

Got it, some players will definitely improve and others definitely will not. And I know for sure which players fall into which categories

 

[Vader]

Still what are you basing his 30% improvement on vs Fogs inability to get 1-2 more shots on goal?

And the other is an unmeasured statistic. So how can you compare the 2 outside of ‘the eye test’?

Goal Assists
King: 0.7
Fogarty: 0.2

Score Involvements
King: 5.3
Fogarty: 3.5

https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I1006143/King-Max
https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I999331/Fogarty-Darcy

While not exactly the same as "bringing the ball to ground after failed marking attempts", these stats clearly show that King has more impact on his team's chances of scoring than Fogarty.