List Mgmt. 2021 Trade Thread - Part I

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Delisted;
-

Traded;
-

Retired;
Jake Carlisle
Shaun McKernan

Current Players Out of Contract;
3. Zak Jones - Link
6. Sebastian Ross (RFA) - Link
7. Luke Dunstan (RFA) - Link
13. Jack Lonie - Link
15. Jack Billings (RFA) - Link
18. Patrick Ryder - Link
24. James Frawley - Link
25. Dean Kent - Link
38. Oscar Clavarino - Link
39. Darragh Joyce - Link
41. Paul Hunter - Link
42. Max Heath - Link
45. Sam Alabakis - Link


To see the full list (it gets updated regularly) visit this thread;

www.bigfooty.com

List & Contract Status

SENIOR LIST 1. Jack Higgins 2. Marcus Windhager 3. Zak Jones 4. Lance Collard 5. Brad Crouch 6. Sebastian Ross 7. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 8. Bradley Hill 9. Jack Steele 10. Mitchito Owens 11. Hunter Clark 12. Max King 13. Ryan Byrnes 14. Liam Stocker 15. Paddy Dow 16. Daniel Butler 17. Isaac...
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com
 
PandaG said:
No serious sources and don’t pretend to have any, just read a lot of forums etc and hear a bit from some itk but absolutely nothing in stone..

im no flamingo
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Max the great said:
Great news that Billings wants to stay.
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Wouldn't get my hopes up just yet. PandaG has made it clear this is nothing more than speculation and even then we seem to be about half a mill apart. When push comes to shove 700k from North might entice.
 
The_Steadier said:
Yeah nah.

Dmac on a wing and jack higgins at half forward replicates 90 to 100% of what JB would give us in those positions over the next ~ 4 years.

It would be different if JB was in fact a midfielder, because B grade quality mids are harder to find (and more expensive) than B grade wingers and half forwards.

But the fact is, he plays a position that is not of vital importance to any team.
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Billings has been average for sure but it could also be the why they have him playing - get someone to pull up a heat map and I guessing here but I would bet he is playing more in defense than just being a link player / complete opposite to how Gaff or Hill play.
I would bet his pressure acts and 1%ers would be higher than any wing man running around.
If you try to find a replacement for him you will most probably be disappointing.
- hardly misses a game
-26yr old in his prime
- is not a dic / head
- is a goal kicker
- is in our best 22
- leadership qualities

The only way I would let him go is if we get a better replacement - Dunkley , Bolton , Kelly etc or a high draft pick - if not we just make the team weaker when we need to be making it stronger.
 

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Joffaboy said:
Wouldn't get my hopes up just yet. PandaG has made it clear this is nothing more than speculation and even then we seem to be about half a mill apart. When push comes to shove 700k from North might entice.
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The talks started 6-8 weeks ago. We were apart by a considerable margin.

I can’t see us moving a lot. So it would be JB moving from what they want.

that’s a hard sell for any person in any walk of life.
 
stavro#4 said:
The talks started 6-8 weeks ago. We were apart by a considerable margin.

I can’t see us moving a lot. So it would be JB moving from what they want.

that’s a hard sell for any person in any walk of life.
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The thing about Billings is that he's quite a quiet and reserved type. Seeing the pressure that came on Hill when he couldn't perform like a top line player might scare Billings into signing on for unders. There would be some appeal in playing finals at the club you stuck with as well.
 
gringo2011 said:
The thing about Billings is that he's quite a quiet and reserved type. Seeing the pressure that came on Hill when he couldn't perform like a top line player might scare Billings into signing on for unders. There would be some appeal in playing finals at the club you stuck with as well.
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He is actually a confident guy among the group. Confident in his ability etc etc.

He is a good player.

but in the make up of our list and our aspirations. He isn’t worth 700k+ to us.

for someone like North he is, as they have no one else to pay and you must use your cap across 3 years.

we are at the point where, Steele is a star and he is getting 650k. We need to re up him next year. We need to bring in others to get better etc.

It starts getting very tight
 
stavro#4 said:
He is actually a confident guy among the group. Confident in his ability etc etc.

He is a good player.

but in the make up of our list and our aspirations. He isn’t worth 700k+ to us.

for someone like North he is, as they have no one else to pay and you must use your cap across 3 years.

we are at the point where, Steele is a star and he is getting 650k. We need to re up him next year. We need to bring in others to get better etc.

It starts getting very tight
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I agree, wouldn't want to pay him as a top 50 AFL player. Just wouldn't be totally surprised if he took a hair cut to stay.
 
stavro#4 said:
He is actually a confident guy among the group. Confident in his ability etc etc.

He is a good player.

but in the make up of our list and our aspirations. He isn’t worth 700k+ to us.

for someone like North he is, as they have no one else to pay and you must use your cap across 3 years.

we are at the point where, Steele is a star and he is getting 650k. We need to re up him next year. We need to bring in others to get better etc.

It starts getting very tight
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Billings would of seen how Dunstan was on the outer and his career was on the rocks with no teams even willing to inquire about him last year , only the Crows in a deal to prop up Crouch's contract.
Billings is no idiot and they will see whats around but in the end it will comedown to length of contract.
 
Premium said:
Billings would of seen how Dunstan was on the outer and his career was on the rocks with no teams even willing to inquire about him last year , only the Crows in a deal to prop up Crouch's contract.
Billings is no idiot and they will see whats around but in the end it will comedown to length of contract.
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Not sure anyone cares if we are giving him a 5 year deal.

I think we all agree he is a good player.

ill even classify it as rumour…. But I was told and posted on here the other month that the difference was something like 150-200k per year on a COMPETITOR offer.

that’s a lot of money. Considering we won’t be paying him his entire contract as salary. It will be filled with performance triggers. Which makes it bigger if someone else goes higher on the salary portion.
 
Premium said:
Billings has been average for sure but it could also be the why they have him playing - get someone to pull up a heat map and I guessing here but I would bet he is playing more in defense than just being a link player / complete opposite to how Gaff or Hill play.
I would bet his pressure acts and 1%ers would be higher than any wing man running around.
If you try to find a replacement for him you will most probably be disappointing.
- hardly misses a game
-26yr old in his prime
- is not a dic / head
- is a goal kicker
- is in our best 22
- leadership qualities

The only way I would let him go is if we get a better replacement - Dunkley , Bolton , Kelly etc or a high draft pick - if not we just make the team weaker when we need to be making it stronger.
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That pretty much sums it up. If the club can pay unders what another club like North may offer then it should be a given to keep him. I think the "average" is based on what we expected of him not actually what his true ability is. We wanted more but he is what he is. He has kicked 13 goals this year so he must be playing forward a bit more.
 
Billings is an interesting one, on the one hand he’s not a top poller in the B&F, but then he was pretty instrumental in a handful of our early wins this year when the team was going really poorly... I think we could have easily been 2-11 without JB this year.

Hopefully we can give him a modest base contract with some attractive performance incentives. Can’t see him wanting to go to the wooden spooners for cash.

One thing we are short on is goal kickers so can’t really afford to offload a player like Billings unless we’re getting a seriously good return.
 
Premium said:
complete opposite to how Gaff or Hill play.
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That's the thing with billings though- everything he does as a footballer is rote.
(ie "mechanical or habitual repetition of something learned.")

He does nothing by instinct which is good because he doesn't appear to have much football creativity- if he does have any he is yet to show it in 8 years as a pro footballer.

He's the antithesis of guys like roma or higgins or hill or gresh etc.

He doesn't play as an attacking wingman or half forward because he isn't naturally creative.

He is a fine footballer, and I'd be happy to keep him on a decent but average wage.

But he is easily replaceable because footsoldier wingers and half forwards are a dime a dozen, so we would be idiots to pay him decent coin chasing some fantasy that he is some A grader in the making.
 
The_Steadier said:
That's the thing with billings though- everything he does as a footballer is rote.
(ie "mechanical or habitual repetition of something learned.")

He does nothing by instinct which is good because he doesn't appear to have much football creativity- if he does have any he is yet to show it in 8 years as a pro footballer.

He's the antithesis of guys like roma or higgins or hill or gresh etc.

He doesn't play as an attacking wingman or half forward because he isn't naturally creative.

He is a fine footballer, and I'd be happy to keep him on a decent but average wage.

But he is easily replaceable because footsoldier wingers and half forwards are a dime a dozen, so we would be idiots to pay him decent coin chasing some fantasy that he is some A grader in the making.
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Look personally I want him gone and I want the draft currency and cap space for other moves.

but… if there was someone forward of the centre that you could put the ball into their hands and hit a targe going into 50… it would have to be Billings for me.

I keep thinking, imagine him at west coast. All of a sudden he has 24 touches and he looks damaging because they play slow and he has people he can hit up and most likely convert set shots at an insane clip.
 

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stavro#4 said:
Look personally I want him gone and I want the draft currency and cap space for other moves.

but… if there was someone forward of the centre that you could put the ball into their hands and hit a targe going into 50… it would have to be Billings for me.

I keep thinking, imagine him at west coast. All of a sudden he has 24 touches and he looks damaging because they play slow and he has people he can hit up and most likely convert set shots at an insane clip.
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He never seems to run forward though. For some reason he's always taking the cheap kick back and across. His reflexes in close aren't great either which means he can't be onball and he seems to be getting even slower. His second half of the last few seasons have been poor. I'd lowball him and move him on.
 
stavro#4 said:
but… if there was someone forward of the centre that you could put the ball into their hands and hit a targe going into 50… it would have to be Billings for me.
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For me it's jack higgins, who has 4 years of development left in him over JB too.

But the main issue is the position of half forward itself.
We would be idiots to pay 5 x 6-700k or anything close to that for ANY half forward.

You simply do not need to spend decent coin on half forwards, even decent ones... they are everywhere.

Our cap needs to go on key position and mids.

The rest get the scraps- ie moneyball guys like higgins, butler etc etc.
 
stavro#4 said:
Look personally I want him gone and I want the draft currency and cap space for other moves.

but… if there was someone forward of the centre that you could put the ball into their hands and hit a targe going into 50… it would have to be Billings for me.

I keep thinking, imagine him at west coast. All of a sudden he has 24 touches and he looks damaging because they play slow and he has people he can hit up and most likely convert set shots at an insane clip.
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I tend to agree with the WCE or like team concern, but the reality is that good teams make hard calls for success. I just hope we don't make a decision based on a fear of looking like idiots for letting him go. The decision needs to be cold and calculated. What's his output vs. his cost. His output is lower this year, likely due to injury and other factors but hes costing a fortune and his current deal, if it is around 650-700, is prohibitive to us going forward as guys that are more important need to be paid more. So he needs to take a lot less or significantly less otherwise the pick is probably better value long term and will help us attract more important players or retain the same.

It doesn't help that Jack's seemingly been overpaid for some time.
 
I think Billings suffers somewhat from his position in the draft. More was expected of him.

Having said that, he doesn't seem to want to try to take a game by the scruff of the neck and be the "one". Seems happy to ride along with where the rest of the team is at.

I was a fan of keeping him because our ball use has been atrocious for years and i want to keep the better ball users, but i've shifted from that position when it comes to JB.

If he stays, i hope they put a rocket up him.
 
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Billings' development has been pretty ordinary over the past few years really. For quite a few years now, there has been a shift in how he plays. He came in as a player who maximised his impact per possession. His 20 touches in a game were genuinely damaging. He had a dangerous kick going inside 50 and he was crafty. He's became a very low impact player. He's clearly playing injured the past few months, so I'm not talking about that form, but more so his 2019-2020 form. He's certainly not a bad player. He is a good winger who will get his 20-25 touches a week, but he lacks potency. I can't remember the last time I thought he picked a team apart with his kicking. He has developed into a safe kicker who rarely tries to pull off kicks to open up the game. He is a bit of a tram-tracks player. He'll get it via an uncontested mark or handball receive and go down the line or continue on the path it came from. He very rarely changes the angles and cuts across the ground, which is something he used to do particularly effectively.

It's a pity, when you compare him to someone like Karl Amon at Port. When we were interested in Amon a few years ago, he was someone I pretty much thought of as being a lesser version of Billings. Their stats still read relatively similarly, but Amon has developed into a high impact player. He has a penetrating kick, he cuts up the angles and he spends regular time starting as a genuine midfielder.

The responsibility must lie with Billings and the club, but I'm no longer fussed about what happens after this year. He is a player I like and is clearly a lock in our best team, particularly at full fitness. He isn't someone you build around though. I'd be more than happy to keep him at a reasonable price, but I won't be devastated if he goes either.
 
Sully111 said:
I think Billings suffers somewhat from his position in the draft. More is expected by him.

Having said that, he doesn't seem to want to try to take a game by the scruff of the neck and be the "one". Seems happy to ride along with where the rest of the team is at.

I was a fan of keeping him because our ball use has been atrocious for years and i want to keep the better ball users, but i've shifted from that position when it comes to JB.

If he stays, i hope they put a rocket up him.
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I’m long past what position in the draft he was.

for me it’s as simple as: your paid star type money.

your performing like someone middle of the pack - but you still want to be paid like a star.

It just doesn’t go together.
 
From the AFL.com article

"Rival clubs believe Billings would land the Saints a similar compensation pick for which Adelaide gained for losing Brad Crouch last season (a second-round selection)."

This suggests the offers we need to get band one just aren't there.

Seems likely now he signs with us.
 
stavro#4 said:
Look personally I want him gone and I want the draft currency and cap space for other moves.

but… if there was someone forward of the centre that you could put the ball into their hands and hit a targe going into 50… it would have to be Billings for me.

I keep thinking, imagine him at west coast. All of a sudden he has 24 touches and he looks damaging because they play slow and he has people he can hit up and most likely convert set shots at an insane clip.
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Agree. I liked him more as that HFF taking a few marks inside f50 and hitting targets who lead at him. He just couldnt kick stragith that year he was there.
Sadly we havent had a lead up target since Bruce left and even he loved them over the back
Membrey seems to prefer it on his head to use his 2 foot jump, King wants it on his head, Battle is stuck on the wing, Marshall has been injured this year.

Think we also need to take into account he has clearly lost a step or three in pace this year with his foot injury.
If he stays I would back him to come back to his best next year.
 
stavro#4 said:
I’m long past what position in the draft he was.

for me it’s as simple as: your paid star type money.

your performing like someone middle of the pack - but you still want to be paid like a star.

It just doesn’t go together.
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I agree

I was more referring to what expectations have been since he came to the club.

I agree it should be irrelevant now.
 
It’s crazy how we get hung up on ‘who we missed’ and not focus on ‘who we got’
Yeah we missed on Bont but in 2016 18 other clubs missed on Marshall.

I am positive the bulldogs would have loved to pick him instead of
Tim English
Patrick Lipinski
Lewis Young
Fergus Green
FDBF1B71-67BE-40B0-A251-3E5FC8C3EBDE.jpeg
 
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PandaG said:
It’s crazy how we get hung up on ‘who we missed’ and not concerned trade on ‘who we got’
Yeah we missed on Bont but in 2016 18 other clubs missed on Marshall.

I am positive the bulldogs would have loved to pick him instead of
Tim English
Patrick Lipinski
Lewis Young
Fergus Green
View attachment 1183619
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English is going pretty well and love to have him and Marshall together. Lipinski is being chased by several clubs i believe. He would be handy in our midfield as well. Young is a big defender out of contract this year. No idea how good he is and have not heard of Green.
 
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