Prediction Changes Dogs V Bombers Round 21

[Northernsoul74]

Christ it’s a stats nerd off in here tonight. Does anyone else just watch games?

 

[Oliver G]

That's why it's a better metric for me. This is the only sport that uses shots as the efficiency metric. Basketball uses percentage of shots that score, soccer uses shots on target, same with both forms of hockey.

It boils down to this, would you consider a team getting 10.12 and 4 not scoring from 52 inside 50's more or less efficient that a team scoring 13.6 with 3 not scoring from the same amount more efficient?

There really isn't a right or wrong answer and it's complicated as there are really no other sports that actually reward you with a score for missing.

For me however giving up the fewest number of shots from inside 50s is the most important aspect but I totally understand your point of view.

 

[adogsfan5]

Why is Hooker even getting mentioned for match ups? He got dropped last week.

 

[X_box_X]

Why is Hooker even getting mentioned for match ups? He got dropped last week.

Yes, to experiment with Francis forward. Experiment failed.

IN: Hooker
OUT: Heppell

 

[TiAn_]

Have a feeling our midfield disposal numbers are going to look like a solid cricket scorecard this week.

 

[Floridog]

Have a feeling our midfield disposal numbers are going to look like a solid cricket scorecard this week.

Another century for Libba? Cool!!!




(as an American, I don't even know what that means but I felt I had to say it anyway)

 

[Golden_6]

Why is Hooker even getting mentioned for match ups? He got dropped last week.

They’ll have to bring him in and move Francis back I’d say. Laverde might be out and he was playing as their 2nd key defender.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

On the news strip this morning: “Dyson Heppell breaks thumb, out for Saints clash”.

Essendon game, they’re playing someone. Whoever.

 

[BEaston]

I'd consider it worse for the attacking team, honestly

But we're talking about a metric to measure the defensive team. Of course kicking inaccurately is worse for the attacking team, that is obvious.

In no world is conceding more scoring shots from the same number of i50s better for the defensive team. The first example you gave clearly indicates a worse defensive performance than the second example, even though less goals were conceded.

By using goals it's muddying the metric by introducing goal accuracy which is something the defense doesn't necessarily have much control over.

That's why it's a better metric for me. This is the only sport that uses shots as the efficiency metric. Basketball uses percentage of shots that score, soccer uses shots on target, same with both forms of hockey.

You're conflating two different things here. The examples from other sports you gave are about scoring efficiency (for the attacking team). We also have that which is goals per scoring attempt (same as the other sports). Defensive efficiency is different.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Milestone men this round:
Josh Bruce

17

Josh Bruce

Age

31

Ht

198cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.6

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

90.4

1star

D

8.9

2star

K

3.5

1star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.3

2star

MG

90.4

2star

D

11.2

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

150 games
Zaine Cordy

21

Zaine Cordy

Age

27

Ht

195cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

180.4

3star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

2.9

3star

T

1.9

3star

MG

180.4

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

100 games

Hard to believe Zaine was just an 11-game rookie when we won the flag.

 

[Dog 36]

Milestone men this round:
Josh Bruce 150 games
Zaine Cordy 100 games

Hard to believe Zaine was just an 11-game rookie when we won the flag.

11 game rookie playing CHF!

 

[ossie_21]

11 game rookie playing CHF!

11 game rookie that will end up in a pub trivia comp somewhere as “who kicked the first goal for the Western Bulldogs in the 2016 AFL grand final?”

 

[BrisDog]

Milestone men this round:
Josh Bruce 150 games
Zaine Cordy 100 games

Hard to believe Zaine was just an 11-game rookie when we won the flag.

What has been Zaine’s greatest moment ? I vote for this one below, however, knocking out Ward would be a close second. He contributed in a big way to our flag as a CHF.

 

[Libbaaaa]

His tackle on Hannerbery earlier in that quarter was epic too.

 

[doggies ftw]

The fact Zaines been there and done it before should probably be a large tick against his name compared to the other options tbf

 

[Mofra]

Shots per inside fifty is a poor metric for efficiency. If you kick a behind, are you being efficient? No. Goals per inside 50 is a much better measure, of which we're 4th. At the other end, we're 16th.

Yes, I agree that you should score heavily against us as you're currently the best in terms of the above metric

Our defenders (like many) are instructed to push opponents wide into lower percentage shots (i.e. defend the centre lane).
A low percentage shot resulting in a behind may look bad on some metrics but it still means our defender has followed team instruction.

 

[X_box_X]

Zaine also stepped up in the PF.

His dropped mark to start the fourth quarter aside, he assisted the opening goal of the match, and also kicked a couple of handy goals. Played his role well.

 

[X_box_X]

Also kicking the opening goal of the GF at the 19:54 minute mark was pretty iconic.

 

[goodcop badcop]

What has been Zaine’s greatest moment ? I vote for this one below, however, knocking out Ward would be a close second. He contributed in a big way to our flag as a CHF.

Zaine looked so much quicker and agile in 2016 compared to now. Was on to Mills in a flash.

 

[weltschmerz]

lol

 

[doggie dog]

Understand the concern with Schache's body work he is never going to be the wrestling type defender. He is going to have to be smart and minimize the number of times he gets caught in that situation.
As always that will be dependant on how our midfield group is performing. His intercept work sets a good base to springboard back on the offensive

Just finished watching the game again, Schache is going about his work down back really nicely for his 2nd game, please put some games into him.
3 more games/4 till the finals, Gardner apparently 2-3 away. If Schache is doing good in 3 weeks he must stay in for Gardner thru the finals.

 

[doggie dog]

Christ it’s a stats nerd off in here tonight. Does anyone else just watch games?

Yeah man, just watch the game a 2nd time, how good is our defense running.
The Bailey's, Caleb(in AA form) have smashed it in the last 2 weeks with a form of Keath/Duryea/Richard out, Schache 2nd game, Woody returning, and Cordy slow as, and Scott moved down back.

Garcia is hard at it, Marra leading and marking the ball at the highest point, Dunkley back, and the midfield for being the best midfield in the AFL with Treloar aka the BFF's are back.
F#@k it's a good time to be a doggies supporter. Praise Sammy P and the board.

 

[Testekill]

View attachment 1194894
View attachment 1194895

lol

Man it's gotta be soul destroying to have your narrative destroyed with the fact that we've actually won a final.

 

[BEaston]

Man it's gotta be soul destroying to have your narrative destroyed with the fact that we've actually won a final.

I think it's just a bit of fun

 

[Pugz89]

The main reason we concede a fair bit per inside 50 is because we play such an attacking high defensive press that when teams do get through and we concede inside 50 they’ve usually got a pretty good look, but we keep those opportunities pretty scarce which is why we concede low scores overall.

The one way you can get us is quick Ball movement catching our defenders out but that means you’ll have to go close to breaking even in the guts which won’t be easy

Gotta be brave with ball movement to beat us as well, which opens the door to being burnt the other way if the other team turns it over. A bit of Russian roulette required.