Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Ephemeral Hope]

Hey do you have any insight or takes on Mitch Owens who played for Sandy Dragons? They put him in the guts this week. 190cm and St Kilda NGA

 

[Knightmare]

Hey do you have any insight or takes on Mitch Owens who played for Sandy Dragons? They put him in the guts this week. 190cm and St Kilda NGA

Solid game. 25d, 13cp, 7t. Did a few good things. Agility and run nice. Took a courageous intercept mark off a high ball. Had a couple of intercept marks by my count. He's draftable and one the Saints will be wanting to add. Overall he's one I like the scope to develop in (he's a rapid developer which is a great sign) and versatility of. Fingers crossed for the Saints he doesn't shoot into the first round mix, as his stocks are certainly on the rise and he's looking to me like a first half of draft pick now.

 

[Smythe]

Solid game. 25d, 13cp, 7t. Did a few good things. Agility and run nice. Took a courageous intercept mark off a high ball. Had a couple of intercept marks by my count. He's draftable and one the Saints will be wanting to add. Overall he's one I like the scope to develop in (he's a rapid developer which is a great sign) and versatility of. Fingers crossed for the Saints he doesn't shoot into the first round mix, as his stocks are certainly on the rise and he's looking to me like a first half of draft pick now.

agreed. he has shot into my top 30, his ceiling is huge with those athletic traits and being multi positional

 

[Rusty Beam]

maybe go and get your eyes tested, probably more likely you have never seen him play.

Yep. Crazy anyone would think Merrett is an awful kick.

One of the most creative players in the comp by foot.

There’s a few things you could knock him on, but kicking definitely isn’t one of them IMO.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Solid game. 25d, 13cp, 7t. Did a few good things. Agility and run nice. Took a courageous intercept mark off a high ball. Had a couple of intercept marks by my count. He's draftable and one the Saints will be wanting to add. Overall he's one I like the scope to develop in (he's a rapid developer which is a great sign) and versatility of. Fingers crossed for the Saints he doesn't shoot into the first round mix, as his stocks are certainly on the rise and he's looking to me like a first half of draft pick now.

I’ve had my eye on him thinking his physical traits plus what he’s shown recently will make him one of those potential NGA steals if we can get him. To me he seems like the type of midfielder we seem to actually be missing. We have a lot of the same size and paced inside mids. Though I am now worrying he might be rising too quickly and we miss out

 

[Knightmare]

agreed. he has shot into my top 30, his ceiling is huge with those athletic traits and being multi positional

The upside for me is being a late grower. I don't have his measurements from previous years, but I've heard some big claims about his growth in recent years. When guys grow later, it's a good omen for future success and normally suggests big time improvement still to come. That's what excites me even above and beyond his athleticism and multi-positional scope.

I’ve had my eye on him thinking his physical traits plus what he’s shown recently will make him one of those potential NGA steals if we can get him. To me he seems like the type of midfielder we seem to actually be missing. We have a lot of the same size and paced inside mids. Though I am now worrying he might be rising too quickly and we miss out

Agree completely with your assessment of St Kilda's midfield and what's needed.

Owens is one the Saints need to add to improve the midfield balance.

 

[M Malice]

Hi KM, you don't have Josh Gibcus in you latest top 20 power rankings, most other phantom drafters have him in their top 10, just interested in your knocks and strengths on Gibcus?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, you don't have Josh Gibcus in you latest top 20 power rankings, most other phantom drafters have him in their top 10, just interested in your knocks and strengths on Gibcus?

Yikes! People have Gibcus inside their top-10s! That's an indictment on this draft class if ever I've heard one. I hope those aren't newly updated draft boards!

I wouldn't spend a top-30 pick to secure him as things stand, there are a good number of players who have passed him by and every week it feels like I'm moving him further down my draft board as others emerge.

I liked the early season signs of Gibcus when he was really flying for intercept marks and taking a good number, he was deservedly at that point on my draft board, but since the opening rounds I haven't been enthused or felt like I'm watching a future AFL calibre key defender. The glimpses he has shown when pushed forward firstly have been horrible and he doesn't have key forward talent, but in defence even he hasn't done a lot lately. Watching him again on the weekend, and it would be roughly my 6th viewing so far this year, it's another of a number of recent games he hasn't had a meaningful influence. He doesn't generate any offence, isn't intercepting nearly enough. I'm deciding whether he has the scope even to be a best-22 player.

As for his strengths. He can leap and is an able intercept mark when he allows himself to play looser, so that's the foundation he has to build off of, but it's something he has to do at a much higher frequency to have me re-join his fan club and advocate him getting drafted if he's to continue to be spoken about as a first rounder.

 

[Davo-27]

Yikes! People have Gibcus inside their top-10s! That's an indictment on this draft class if ever I've heard one. I hope those aren't newly updated draft boards!

I wouldn't spend a top-30 pick to secure him as things stand, there are a good number of players who have passed him by and every week it feels like I'm moving him further down my draft board as others emerge.

I liked the early season signs of Gibcus when he was really flying for intercept marks and taking a good number, he was deservedly at that point on my draft board, but since the opening rounds I haven't been enthused or felt like I'm watching a future AFL calibre key defender. The glimpses he has shown when pushed forward firstly have been horrible and he doesn't have key forward talent, but in defence even he hasn't done a lot lately. Watching him again on the weekend, and it would be roughly my 6th viewing so far this year, it's another of a number of recent games he hasn't had a meaningful influence. He doesn't generate any offence, isn't intercepting nearly enough. I'm deciding whether he has the scope even to be a best-22 player.

As for his strengths. He can leap and is an able intercept mark when he allows himself to play looser, so that's the foundation he has to build off of, but it's something he has to do at a much higher frequency to have me re-join his fan club and advocate him getting drafted if he's to continue to be spoken about as a first rounder.

i also have not seen anything special about Gibcus, i must have missed the games where he dominated? i think he is ok, but i think some other people are over rating him slightly, until i see him do something special i cant put him in my top 10, i've generally had him floating from 17-25 or so, mostly because theres so few KPP in this draft.

 

[PMBangers]

So would you say you're more in favour of performance than traits?

 

[ModernArtillery]

Adrian Caruso (GWS Recruiting Manager) was on Road to the Draft with Cal Twomey last week and spoke about Gibcus in that top group after Daicos/Darcy and next to Horne/Callaghan etc. Obviously it's unlikely that he's going on to talk up some of the guys that he loves but that suggests to me that there seems to be some view within AFL circles that Gibcus is at least a first round talent. Of course everyone rates talent differently, but I don't think it's necessarily unrealistic for Gibcus to be inside the top 10's of peoples mocks/phantoms/rankings.

 

[Davo-27]

Adrian Caruso (GWS Recruiting Manager) was on Road to the Draft with Cal Twomey last week and spoke about Gibcus in that top group after Daicos/Darcy and next to Horne/Callaghan etc. Obviously it's unlikely that he's going on to talk up some of the guys that he loves but that suggests to me that there seems to be some view within AFL circles that Gibcus is at least a first round talent. Of course everyone rates talent differently, but I don't think it's necessarily unrealistic for Gibcus to be inside the top 10's of peoples mocks/phantoms/rankings.

i mean i was against Dow going high in 2017 i had him as a 2nd rounder, Jones and Hately in 2018(and i didnt like Colier-Dawkins that much), D.Stephens and i was angry at the media trying to link McAsey with the Hawks in 2019 thankfully he got taken early and we went Day(also was not a philp fan), i didnt like Reid in 2020, so i stand by being a bit cautious on Gibcus going top 10 this year whether he goes there or not, i could be wrong, but i trust my eye and he may change my mind as the season goes on?.

i try to be as independent as possible and not follow any media or AFL insiders.

 

[ModernArtillery]

i mean i was against Dow going high in 2017 i had him as a 2nd rounder, Jones and Hately in 2018(and i didnt like Colier-Dawkins that much), D.Stephens and i was angry at the media trying to link McAsey with the Hawks in 2019 thankfully he got taken early and we went Day(also was not a philp fan), i didnt like Reid in 2020, so i stand by being a bit cautious on Gibcus going top 10 this year whether he goes there or not, i could be wrong, but i trust my eye and he may change my mind as the season goes on?.

I'm not saying you're wrong by not having Gibcus as a first rounder. I think all of us who have followed the draft have players we've liked more or less than where they've been touted (and eventually been selected). In Gibcus' case, I think he's probably sitting on my board at a similar range to where you have him. I was just raising the point that Caruso had mentioned him at that top end and so I don't think it's exclusively guys on this board that rate him inside the top 10/first round.

 

[St Neil]

Hi Knightmare. Thanks for your insights on Mitch Owens. At last the Saints might finally have a little luck with one of our academy lads.

I apologise if this has been previously asked, but how do you rate the other Saints NGA Academy prospects? These include Marcus Windhager and Jack Peris.

 

[Knightmare]

i also have not seen anything special about Gibcus, i must have missed the games where he dominated? i think he is ok, but i think some other people are over rating him slightly, until i see him do something special i cant put him in my top 10, i've generally had him floating from 17-25 or so, mostly because theres so few KPP in this draft.

Gibcus at the very start of the year had a few games where he was dangerous as an intercept marking presence but seems to have since shifting into a more lock-down focused role when used in defence which hasn't suited him as well.

If you have him around 20, that's fair enough. It's been a few months now where I haven't been able to fit Gibcus into my top-20 even. There are others who have passed him by and look like higher probability AFL footballers.

So would you say you're more in favour of performance than traits?

With key position players I look for as optimal of a combination of production, rate of improvement and attributes as possible. Gibcus doesn't rate all that high in any of those categories.

In terms of traits, he can read it and take a grab, and has the athletic capabilities to stick to an opponent, but I'm waiting to see any kind of rate of progression, a higher frequency of impact, heightened production and intercepting given that's his primary value.

Overall, I'm not sold on Gibcus. He still has some selling to do.

Adrian Caruso (GWS Recruiting Manager) was on Road to the Draft with Cal Twomey last week and spoke about Gibcus in that top group after Daicos/Darcy and next to Horne/Callaghan etc. Obviously it's unlikely that he's going on to talk up some of the guys that he loves but that suggests to me that there seems to be some view within AFL circles that Gibcus is at least a first round talent. Of course everyone rates talent differently, but I don't think it's necessarily unrealistic for Gibcus to be inside the top 10's of peoples mocks/phantoms/rankings.

Opportunity for others if Gibcus goes that early. You're correct in saying Gibcus is viewed as a first round prospect, but news to me if he's being seen by any as in that top-5 or close range. I certainly won't be at his current standard of play be placing him anywhere near that high on my board.

i mean i was against Dow going high in 2017 i had him as a 2nd rounder, Jones and Hately in 2018(and i didnt like Colier-Dawkins that much), D.Stephens and i was angry at the media trying to link McAsey with the Hawks in 2019 thankfully he got taken early and we went Day(also was not a philp fan), i didnt like Reid in 2020, so i stand by being a bit cautious on Gibcus going top 10 this year whether he goes there or not, i could be wrong, but i trust my eye and he may change my mind as the season goes on?.

Always back yourself. Clubs don't always make the right calls.

You've got me outperforming clubs on average over the years with key position selections over my years covering the draft.

There is so much knowledge whether it's through the draft or in the list management space they're yet to absorb or learn and when you go through the history of it all - all the drafts, all the trade periods, it becomes obvious with time where those deficiencies are. There is far too much group think within the industry and there are opportunities for those who think a bit differently to find talent clubs overlook or don't rate as accurately as they could. Those who do and think what everyone else does will be doomed to have the results everyone else gets.

On Reid last year though, I think he's going to come good having seen his debut performance this year, though obviously a very limited sample size. He's one as with Cox though not to the same degree I've become much more optimistic on having seen this year, though it's so hard with those Victorian's last year to rate them as, particularly with the talls as there is no year of data to assess their rate of development to have any idea whether in the long run they'll be good or not. I know in assessing my performance with KPPs, they're the cases I find hardest where there isn't the draft year data to know how they're progressing. Mitch Georgiades is another where he didn't play in his draft year, so credit to Port Adelaide taking him that early, but I would have gone safer and with someone I'd at least seen that year to know had taken that next step and was still progressing.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare. Thanks for your insights on Mitch Owens. At last the Saints might finally have a little luck with one of our academy lads.

I apologise if this has been previously asked, but how do you rate the other Saints NGA Academy prospects? These include Marcus Windhager and Jack Peris.

I can even give you a fourth NGA for the Saints I would have on my watchlist, and I rate him ahead of Peris in Scott Beilby who had a ripping game earlier in the year (I mention the game in my second weekly wrap for the year - the Nick Daicos one).

For a general feel for draft ranges.

Owens and Windhager could both be first half of draft picks, with Owens of the two in my mind at least the standout and most intriguing with his Vic Metro v Country trial match in particular outstanding.

Peris and Beilby are probably more rookie choices and I would have thought against the odds to attract a bid late.

 

[St Neil]

I can even give you a fourth NGA for the Saints I would have on my watchlist, and I rate him ahead of Peris in Scott Beilby who had a ripping game earlier in the year (I mention the game in my second weekly wrap for the year - the Nick Daicos one).

For a general feel for draft ranges.

Owens and Windhager could both be first half of draft picks, with Owens of the two in my mind at least the standout and most intriguing with his Vic Metro v Country trial match in particular outstanding.

Peris and Beilby are probably more rookie choices and I would have thought against the odds to attract a bid late.

Thank you. Greatly appreciated.

Any risk Owens or Windhager could be top 20? Hopefully not because then we can’t match the bid.

 

[Knightmare]

Thank you. Greatly appreciated.

Any risk Owens or Windhager could be top 20? Hopefully not because then we can’t match the bid.

Against the odds at this stage, though their stocks respectively are rising, so it can't be ruled out depending on how strongly they finish the season.

For my own personal board, I will consider Owens inside my top-20 if he keeps improving. Those late growers tend to have a heap of improvement at AFL level left, so he's one I'll be tracking very closely between now and seasons end.

 

[Rusty Beam]

So would you say you're more in favour of performance than traits?

Surely it’s got to be a combination of both?

No point having elite traits that you only occasionally show in your game day performances.

A perfect example for us is someone like Sier, who has elite clearance traits. But he simply doesn’t show them regularly enough and they don’t make up for the rest of the shortfalls in his game.

Particularly his ability to find enough ball.

 

[PMBangers]

Surely it’s got to be a combination of both?

No point having elite traits that you only occasionally show in your game day performances.

A perfect example for us is someone like Sier, who has elite clearance traits. But he simply doesn’t show them regularly enough and they don’t make up for the rest of the shortfalls in his game.

Particularly his ability to find enough ball.

Of course its a combination of both, but reading KM's rankings I get the vibe that performance is a significant factor

 

[GUMBLETRON]

The other significant factor is going all-in on a very specific conception of what a KPD should play like which, rightly or otherwise, completely discounts traditionally-fundamental aspects of the role.

 

[Chris25]

Adrian Caruso (GWS Recruiting Manager) was on Road to the Draft with Cal Twomey last week and spoke about Gibcus in that top group after Daicos/Darcy and next to Horne/Callaghan etc. Obviously it's unlikely that he's going on to talk up some of the guys that he loves but that suggests to me that there seems to be some view within AFL circles that Gibcus is at least a first round talent. Of course everyone rates talent differently, but I don't think it's necessarily unrealistic for Gibcus to be inside the top 10's of peoples mocks/phantoms/rankings.

I think most draft watchers have Gibcus as a top 10 talent at the moment - including clubs. And I think he stacks up well with KPDs taken early in previous drafts.

For me, the question is do I take a KPD that high. Personally I’m not sure I do this year. I’d rather a higher rated mid and back myself to develop one of the lesser talls later on. So I wouldn’t have a problem with Gibcus being lower on a draft philosophy basis, don’t think the talent is a question though.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

How would you compare Josh Ward to Marc Murphy early days?

 

[The Kaiser Chief]

Solid game. 25d, 13cp, 7t. Did a few good things. Agility and run nice. Took a courageous intercept mark off a high ball. Had a couple of intercept marks by my count. He's draftable and one the Saints will be wanting to add. Overall he's one I like the scope to develop in (he's a rapid developer which is a great sign) and versatility of. Fingers crossed for the Saints he doesn't shoot into the first round mix, as his stocks are certainly on the rise and he's looking to me like a first half of draft pick now.

how do you qualify to be in a NGA academy?
Is it becuase of a players cultural background?

 

[briztoon]

how do you qualify to be in a NGA academy?
Is it becuase of a players cultural background?

You know that’s a really easy question to google.

Far quicker than what it would take me to write an explanation.