Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[LittleG]

Hey Knightmare.

We discussed Smith and his lack of defensive pressure earlier in the year. I said he was a liability at stoppages and needed to either get busy offensively OR his defensive side would become a huge issue.
Since then, he has changed roles and no longer attends centre bounces and plays a long way outside at stoppages. This has turned him into a weapon, where his offensive guy running and ability gets highlighted. From a player who was giving up more goals to his opponent than he was involved in, to now probably demanding a tagger, that is a huge turnaround in 4 weeks.

Questions:
Would you tag Smith or rely on your team zone defence to beat the Bulldogs?

Are you going to do an in-depth look at both teams drafting, as your usual focus is on the draft and both teams have been heavily focused on the draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey guys, can you guys give some midfield talent wce can look to draft that will be available at pick 10 (actually pick 12 tho)?

Matthew Roberts could be there and is likely to appeal to West Coast given their tendency to take guys who have been good for a number of years.

Tyler Sonsie is another I can see being in that mix around that choice.

How good is this draft btw (1st round selections)?

Think of this draft as similar to 2016. There will be hits and misses in the first round and there will be lots of capable midfielders without a whole lot in the way of key position talent early.

Hi KM. Do you have examples of a premier first possession winning mid fielder who’s good defensively that you think the Pies should target?

That's a lot to want for what may be a late pick.

There are few who are great defensively normally (Horne-Francis defensively is without equal this year), but having that with the premier first possession winning. There aren't many of those. Particularly through the junior ranks, there are so few who are truly proficient defensively.

It's a draft I'm finding that is filled more-so with versatile and multi-positional mids more than anything this year.

If you want to tick those boxes and are happy to have severe limitations in other areas, a Joel Trudgeon as an overager ticks those two boxes in combination as well as any in this pool. There is no higher volume first possession winner and tackler. And he's one of those in and under inside distributors who does his work by hand.

Tom Lewis from the SANFL if after a mature ager is a capable alternative. He's not all that tall at just 178cm, nor is he the biggest body, but as a tackler and still having that high end contested side, he's another who is strong in those components if looking for that specialist.

As for what I'd target. There are a number I've spoken about in years past who I have loved and would have liked Collingwood to have targeted then. From Hugh Greenwood, to Willem Drew, to Jarryd Lyons, to Ben Keays. So there is usually someone from opposition lists that can be had.
Luke Dunstan is available and could be a desolate man's version of those guys and a kind of fall back option, but hopefully someone better arise during the trade period.

Hey Knightmare.

We discussed Smith and his lack of defensive pressure earlier in the year. I said he was a liability at stoppages and needed to either get busy offensively OR his defensive side would become a huge issue.
Since then, he has changed roles and no longer attends centre bounces and plays a long way outside at stoppages. This has turned him into a weapon, where his offensive guy running and ability gets highlighted. From a player who was giving up more goals to his opponent than he was involved in, to now probably demanding a tagger, that is a huge turnaround in 4 weeks.

Questions:
Would you tag Smith or rely on your team zone defence to beat the Bulldogs?

Are you going to do an in-depth look at both teams drafting, as your usual focus is on the draft and both teams have been heavily focused on the draft?

I've been watching. Smith has starred in the role to his credit which is great for the Dogs given how many want and really need minutes around stoppages to be effective.

I would play team defence and not rely on a tag to beat anyone. Melbourne are a great defensive team. They bring the forward pressure, they pressure guys into mistakes and have the intercepters. As long as they do all that and the midfielders take advantage of Gawn's ascendency through the ruck to advantage, they're the keys to them winning.

No tag on Smith is necessary. It's just being aware and alert when he's forward of centre what he has been doing these past two weeks and minimising those looks he has been getting which I'm sure they will be.

I could produce a video on how Melbourne and the Dogs respectively made the Grand Final if there is the interest and what were those key list management moves that got them there.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Hi KM, what’s your thoughts on Dylan Stephens

15

Dylan Stephens

Age

23

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

? Has your opinion changed since the draft? Swans fans don’t rate him at all.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, what’s your thoughts on Dylan Stephens? Has your opinion changed since the draft? Swans fans don’t rate him at all.

He's a non improver. He's not someone I'd trade any currency for and in a Collingwood context not someone I see as necessary trade for either.

I can see a Stephens making more sense for an Adelaide or Essendon as two teams more likely to be able to find a role for him.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft Weekly Wrap with a focus on mature age midfielder: Bailey Rogers + a name to key forward to bookmark for the 2022 draft:

Earning back-to-back selection across half-back in the 2019 and 2020 WAFL Team of the Year, Bailey Rogers has taken his game up a gear this season and transformed into one of the competition's premier midfielders who can push forward. A Sandover Medal contender as one of the WAFL's best this season, Rogers is an AFL ready, 24-year-old who has not only been finding and winning plenty of the football, but also heavily influencing games.

Conversation point: Will I be on my own in rating Bailey Rogers and William Pearce inside my top-50 power rankings?

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...rap-bailey-rogers-star-west-plays-luke-parker

 

[Happy Mastenator]

AFL Draft Weekly Wrap with a focus on mature age midfielder: Bailey Rogers + a name to key forward to bookmark for the 2022 draft:



Conversation point: Will I be on my own in rating Bailey Rogers and William Pearce inside my top-50 power rankings?

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...rap-bailey-rogers-star-west-plays-luke-parker

How does Bailey Rogers performance stack up against Tim Kelly's in the WAFL?

 

[Knightmare]

How does Bailey Rogers performance stack up against Tim Kelly's in the WAFL?

Statistically comparable, with Kelly about a year younger than Rogers is now when drafted.

Both are damaging, with Rogers the more versatile of the pair, though Kelly is certainly the more explosive athlete and the better midfielder.

Interestingly, and many won't realise this. Kelly when drafted wasn't even the best on his team. Haiden Schloithe was the better footballer and won the Sandover Medal ahead of him.

Similar could be said at the current time of Rogers who is that #2 mid behind Bolton, but like Kelly in that 2017 season, Rogers this year has entered that top tier category.

Rogers for a point of comparison isn't certain to get drafted but is one I'd take late/rookie if looking for someone who can be a versatile 4th or 5th midfielder in a rotation who can also impact games up front or even push back as required. He's one of those where he likely won't star like Kelly, but could slot into a team and be a seamless fit and capable component.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Statistically comparable, with Kelly about a year younger than Rogers is now when drafted.

Both are damaging, with Rogers the more versatile of the pair, though Kelly is certainly the more explosive athlete and the better midfielder.

Interestingly, and many won't realise this. Kelly when drafted wasn't even the best on his team. Haiden Schloithe was the better footballer and won the Sandover Medal ahead of him.

Similar could be said at the current time of Rogers who is that #2 mid behind Bolton, but like Kelly in that 2017 season, Rogers this year has entered that top tier category.

Rogers for a point of comparison isn't certain to get drafted but is one I'd take late/rookie if looking for someone who can be a versatile 4th or 5th midfielder in a rotation who can also impact games up front or even push back as required. He's one of those where he likely won't star like Kelly, but could slot into a team and be a seamless fit and capable component.

Cheers mate, that seems to align with what one of our resident WAFL watchers has said.

I have seen a lot of him ( been watching him and tracking him since he played Colts ) and he is certainly worth consideration for a late / rookie pick.
His game has come on leaps and bounds the last two seasons.
Additionally he has a strong defensive side to his game.
He has developed from a very reliable HBF into a goal kicking balanced mid.

Has a hard edge and wins his own ball also has developed into a goal kicker.
Plug in ready to play with a solid frame.


View attachment 1236429

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Neil Erasmus not playing in the curtain raiser game ;(

 

[Knightmare]

Neil Erasmus not playing in the curtain raiser game ;(

Always good to have a last look at everyone, so any unavailable for selection will be missed from that perspective, making it harder to finalise a draft ranking, but any absences will just mean opportunities for others.

Based off of game 1, WA will be just fine without Erasmus.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Always good to have a last look at everyone, so any unavailable for selection will be missed from that perspective, making it harder to finalise a draft ranking, but any absences will just mean opportunities for others.

Based off of game 1, WA will be just fine without Erasmus.

Yeah but JHF was terrible v WA and i doubt brings out another stinker. Think they'll rise for the day, the both of them. But yeah i'm just a bit sad for Erasmus, would've loved to of seen him another time.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah but JHF was terrible v WA and i doubt brings out another stinker. Think they'll rise for the day, the both of them. But yeah i'm just a bit sad for Erasmus, would've loved to of seen him another time.

If we were in the States, this would be called “shutting it down”. Any player agent worth his salt would stop a highly rated prospect from competing in any further games, because at this point, said player can only hurt their draft stocks.

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Hi KM;

With Finn Callaghan gone before our pick and Josh Gibcus over-rated for our first pick , which club/s do you see try trade up?
I would love for us to get Neil Erasmus wouldn't fit our needs but i reckon he got a high ceiling. Jacob Van Rooyen available near Pick 19/22?

The suns have indicated that they want to target Key positions, how low could Gibcus fall?

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah but JHF was terrible v WA and i doubt brings out another stinker. Think they'll rise for the day, the both of them. But yeah i'm just a bit sad for Erasmus, would've loved to of seen him another time.

Erasmus will be drafted, so you'll see him either at AFL level at some stage, or in the state leagues if you're an enthusiastic watcher. If he's not completely right, no point playing when he's a projected top-10 pick.

Sheldrick shut Horne-Francis down at stoppages completely. Got his body in front of JHF and didn't let him get a run at the ball. I'd love to see a re-match and see if JHF can find a way to win the matchup.

Hi KM;

With Finn Callaghan gone before our pick and Josh Gibcus over-rated for our first pick , which club/s do you see try trade up?
I would love for us to get Neil Erasmus wouldn't fit our needs but i reckon he got a high ceiling. Jacob Van Rooyen available near Pick 19/22?

The suns have indicated that they want to target Key positions, how low could Gibcus fall?

I don't see clubs trying all that hard to get up to a Callaghan or Gibcus, more-so they'd consider it if they have a good player who wants out, then they may look at it.

Erasmus isn't definitely there at Gold Coast's first pick. If I'm doing a phantom draft today, I'd probably have him going just before Gold Coast's pick. Erasmus with his versatility, how he reads it and the later birthday is intriguing. I don't like him at all by foot, but if he cleans that up and keeps developing the contested side of his game, he can be really good at AFL level.

Van Rooyen is more likely than not to be there with Gold Coast's second pick unless he really dominates game 2 v SA.

 

[briztoon]

Erasmus will be drafted, so you'll see him either at AFL level at some stage, or in the state leagues if you're an enthusiastic watcher. If he's not completely right, no point playing when he's a projected top-10 pick.

Sheldrick shut Horne-Francis down at stoppages completely. Got his body in front of JHF and didn't let him get a run at the ball. I'd love to see a re-match and see if JHF can find a way to win the matchup.



I don't see clubs trying all that hard to get up to a Callaghan or Gibcus, more-so they'd consider it if they have a good player who wants out, then they may look at it.

Erasmus isn't definitely there at Gold Coast's first pick. If I'm doing a phantom draft today, I'd probably have him going just before Gold Coast's pick. Erasmus with his versatility, how he reads it and the later birthday is intriguing. I don't like him at all by foot, but if he cleans that up and keeps developing the contested side of his game, he can be really good at AFL level.

Van Rooyen is more likely than not to be there with Gold Coast's second pick unless he really dominates game 2 v SA.

Van Rooyen high on Brisbane’s recruiters list. Can easily see him go at our second first round pick (from Melbourne).

 

[Knightmare]

Van Rooyen high on Brisbane’s recruiters list. Can easily see him go at our second first round pick (from Melbourne).

Would be up the top end of his order I would have thought unless revised up boards on the back of his game v SA to a greater extent than expected.

Late first - second round is what I'm expecting as things stand.

 

[PMBangers]

Would be up the top end of his order I would have thought unless revised up boards on the back of his game v SA to a greater extent than expected.

Late first - second round is what I'm expecting as things stand.

The Melbourne first rounder will be the last or second last of the first round

 

[Knightmare]

The Melbourne first rounder will be the last or second last of the first round

I am aware.

Hence "Late first - second round is what I'm expecting as things stand" as the upper part of where I think his range is.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Erasmus will be drafted, so you'll see him either at AFL level at some stage, or in the state leagues if you're an enthusiastic watcher. If he's not completely right, no point playing when he's a projected top-10 pick.

Sheldrick shut Horne-Francis down at stoppages completely. Got his body in front of JHF and didn't let him get a run at the ball. I'd love to see a re-match and see if JHF can find a way to win the matchup.



I don't see clubs trying all that hard to get up to a Callaghan or Gibcus, more-so they'd consider it if they have a good player who wants out, then they may look at it.

Erasmus isn't definitely there at Gold Coast's first pick. If I'm doing a phantom draft today, I'd probably have him going just before Gold Coast's pick. Erasmus with his versatility, how he reads it and the later birthday is intriguing. I don't like him at all by foot, but if he cleans that up and keeps developing the contested side of his game, he can be really good at AFL level.

Van Rooyen is more likely than not to be there with Gold Coast's second pick unless he really dominates game 2 v SA.

Exactly, keen to see Erasmus at both levels at any team + i'd love to see JHF take over Sheldrick in a game that matters (big day yknow).

 

[Wrenny]

Van Rooyen high on Brisbane’s recruiters list. Can easily see him go at our second first round pick (from Melbourne).

Tigers with pick #15 (#17) to swoop first

 

[Smythe]

Tigers with pick #15 (#17) to swoop first

Pounce*

 

[briztoon]

Tigers with pick #15 (#17) to swoop first

Honestly hope they do.

 

[Smythe]

Honestly hope they do.

I personally hope they don‘t. Other needs to address, but he would be a good get. at that range he may just be best available for the role required though

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

Knightmare if you did a phantom draft today, who does Hawthorn take with their first pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare if you did a phantom draft today, who does Hawthorn take with their first pick?

Josh Ward would make a lot of sense through the midfield. He would add much needed contrast and class. He'd be one I'd expect to be in the mix and should go around Hawthorn's pick.