Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[LittleG]

Max Lynch went for pocket change, basically a down grounded future 3rd. We could have boosted a vulnerable area of the ground for even less capital. It seems an extraordinary risk to take a threadbare ruck division into 2022 for a team smack bang in their window.

I though Lynch was our target. It’s was what I was led to believe by a scout from another team. He said he had seen us recording away from play footage of his work rate and positioning. His info is usually pretty good and I was surprised that Lynch didn’t nominate us during trade week.
As you said, he went for very little trade currency and personally I would have made that trade.
We must not have been interested…. Which begs the question who we were targeting and why did that effort fall through.

 

[LondonBulldog]

Agreed. It has been proven they have the least impact on the outcome of a game.

Our (non-ruck) mids got destroyed. End of story.

Really, who don't think a ruckmen named Jackson had any influence on that impressive patch of 11 or so minutes. Agreed its not just the taps but its the aggression and win at all costs what Jackson had in Spades along with all there onballers when ours for whatever reason went missing including Treloar, Bont and English.

 

[Bald]

Really, who don't think a ruckmen named Jackson had any influence on that impressive patch of 11 or so minutes. Agreed its not just the taps but its the aggression and win at all costs what Jackson had in Spades along with all there onballers when ours for whatever reason went missing including Treloar, Bont and English.

Max Gawn is the first top 10 ruckman to be a premiership ruckman since Dean Cox.

 

[LondonBulldog]

Max Gawn is the first top 10 ruckman to be a premiership ruckman since Dean Cox.

A guy named Nankervis and even Lycett would argue otherwise. Both would have been top ten in their respective years.

 

[Philthy1]

We don’t need more points in this draft though. I think all that trade achieves is to preserve our picks in the 40s/50s. I’d much rather live flip #23 into just enough points to cover the Darcy bid and receive the excess in 2022 picks. We can the easily trade that extra 2022 pick to get back into there 2nd or 3rd round this year.


Agree. Happy to be corrected but from memory the points value system was designed around the expected games played by pick and naturally smoothed out. The problem is this doesn’t capture (i) the expected quality of those games and (ii) wasn’t adjusted for the continued improvement in the recruiting caper.

Accordingly the relative values are all wrong which is evidenced by the repeated ability to extract 30-50% points premiums when downgrading picks. It’s ridiculous that teams (we have been the recent beneficiary) then get the extra 20% discount. I think the AFL has to either (i) scrap the discount entirely and say that it is effectively delivered via the dodgy “exchange rate” or (ii) commit to periodically updating the index to reflect the implied rates from previous years trades which only involvepicks.

We've thrown all our draft assets at one player two years in a row. We need to maintain a steady pipeline of promising players coming through.

 

[Mr. Walker]

I would give Sam Reid a go. Third generation Dog. Why not?

I didn’t know he was third always thought second generation. Who was his grandfather?

 

[VitalDread]

Pies have delisted Jay Rantall
Would be a great rookie option, hes tons of talent

 

[doggies ftw]

A guy named Nankervis and even Lycett would argue otherwise. Both would have been top ten in their respective years.

I’d argue even McEvoy wouldn’t be far off top 10 in his years. No ones saying we need the best ruckman in the comp to win a flag but I don’t think you can win with the flat out worst ruck division in the league it’s just too big a hurdle.

Again our midfield is so far ahead of the next best it’s not funny, our depth in the midfield is even further ahead. We should be dominating teams out of the middle, we’re not.

let’s hope our ruck division is middle of the range next year, quite possible if English and Sweet come on and Martin stays fit etc

 

[VitalDread]

For Reference before the trade period

Western Bulldogs

35 players

7 (+1 cat B)

Out: Jong, Lipinski and Young
In: TOB

With Hayes and Cav likely delisted, we have 4 spots free for the draft

Minimum AFL list needs to be 35 Main listed players (currently at 33 Main Listed after Trade Period)

 

[whyBulldogs]

For Reference before the trade period

Western Bulldogs

35 players

7 (+1 cat B)

Out: Jong, Lipinski and Young
In: TOB

With Hayes and Cav likely delisted, we have 4 spots free for the draft

Minimum AFL list needs to be 35 Main listed players (currently at 33 Main Listed after Trade Period)

When will the club announce delisted players?

 

[bresker]

So will we take any rookies or are those spots filled up?

 

[glenashley]

Demons delisted project ruckman Austin Bradtke. 204cm. Basketball background.

Don't know much else about him.

 

[VitalDread]

So will we take any rookies or are those spots filled up?

We need to take 3 players in the main draft so would assume the rookie spots are all set unless we are upgrading Roarke and Sweet to fill in the 3 requirements with Darcy coming in

 

[VitalDread]

Demons delisted project ruckman Austin Bradtke. 204cm. Basketball background.

Don't know much else about him.

big lad not much talent

 

[TommyD13]

Pies have delisted Jay Rantall
Would be a great rookie option, hes tons of talent

Surprised at that. Seems the type you keep when rebuilding...

 

[DueWest]

Hi guys great trade period with accumulating points - well done

Just wanted to run an idea past to see if you guys thought it as a good deal for both Tigers/Doggies

Doggies out : #23
Doggies In : #38 + Richmond F2 (roughly 28-30 range)

Richmond In : #23
Richmond out :#38 + 2022 2nd rounder

Would leave the doggies with 38 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 52 = 1798 points Darcy Bid #3 roughly 1785 points after discount 20% Basically meets perfectly
This then allows the Doggies the option of keeping Richmonds 2022 2nd rounder or on trading after matching Darcy bid to another team like Brisbane or maybe North for 42 +47 which will come in around 5-7 spots so could end up 37 & 40

Not sure if you can swap future picks on draft night ? Thought future pick swaps needed to be completed prior

 

[doggiesin08]

Not sure if you can swap future picks on draft night ? Thought future pick swaps needed to be completed prior

You definitely can. There are just some restrictions about multiple trades with the same club both involving future picks.

 

[doggiesin08]

We've thrown all our draft assets at one player two years in a row. We need to maintain a steady pipeline of promising players coming through.

I don't necessarily agree but that's not actually my argument.

My point is that we already have a small excess of points to match a Darcy bid. Getting an even bigger points excess in the 2021 draft will just preserve our picks in the 40s/50s. If the desire is to have a extra meaningful pick in 2021 (i.e. not just at the very end of the draft) then we are likely better served downgrading pick #23 to one later pick in 2021 (while still maintaining just enough points to match Darcy) and taking the premium as a 2022 pick. Post matching Darcy we then flip that newly received 2022 pick back in to the 2021 draft (with a different team) and will likely be able to get our hands on something in the 30s rather than maintaining picks in the 40s.

 

[Bald]

A guy named Nankervis and even Lycett would argue otherwise. Both would have been top ten in their respective years.

Lmao. Lycett was definitely not a top ten ruckman in the competition in 2018.

Richmond were forced to play Shaun Grigg with Toby Nankervis in 2017 and he then played a combined 23 games across all of 2019 and 2020. But sure, both of these players were definitely in the top half of ruckmen in the game in their respective years.

 

[Barking Mad]

Demons delisted project ruckman Austin Bradtke. 204cm. Basketball background.

Don't know much else about him.

Could he possibly still be eligible for Cat B? Had 3 years with Dees

 

[Sentinel]

For Reference before the trade period

Western Bulldogs

35 players

7 (+1 cat B)

Out: Jong, Lipinski and Young
In: TOB

With Hayes and Cav likely delisted, we have 4 spots free for the draft

Minimum AFL list needs to be 35 Main listed players (currently at 33 Main Listed after Trade Period)

Minimum main list is 36, not 35. We had one short in 2021 because of Lloyd's retirement. https://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/837502/afl-confirms-2021-list-sizes (no change to list sizes in 2022 from the 2021 rules)

Assuming Roarke (confirmed upgrade) is the only player to move between lists and we cut Hayes & Cavarra, we will go into the draft with:
- 34 main list
- 4 Cat A rookies
- 1 Cat B rookie

We can then draft 2-4 new players onto the main list. Depending how many players we add to the main list, we can then draft between 0-2 rookies. That's not counting any potential movements within the list (eg upgrading any rookies in addition to Roarke, or downgrading any main list players to the rookie list).

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Could he possibly still be eligible for Cat B? Had 3 years with Dees

He's quite possibly the furthest removed from ever playing a game of AFL I've ever seen at VFL level, and I've seen "Bambi on ice if Bambi also had no idea where he was on the ice" written about him. People really put no thought or research or asking questions about every single name that gets delisted, do they?

 

[TBOW]

I'm not really one to put too much stock into Super Coach ratings, but it is probably worth noting that Tim English is one of only 4 ruckman to ever score over 200 ranking points in a game. Dean Cox

Dean Cox

Age

42

Ht

203cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.0

1star

did it twice and Gawn and Goldstein have each done it once.

There is a reason that the club has had so much belief in English as a ruckman over the years and it is because he brings a certain skill set to the ruck role that does have a significant on field value. Hit outs are unfortunately not a part of it yet. I'm not sure why Tim played less ruck minutes this year or what the plan is for next year but I still see a potential top quality ruck there.

If the club opted not to pursue any of the rucks that were available this year, it is most likely because they did not see any of them providing a net on-field value gain over the ruck set up that we are planning to use.

 

[Barking Mad]

I find it amazing that 12 months ago Josh Bruce

17

Josh Bruce

Age

31

Ht

198cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.6

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

90.4

1star

D

8.9

2star

K

3.5

1star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.3

2star

MG

90.4

2star

D

11.2

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

was being ridiculed and a bit of a whipping boy. He gets a great preseason in and is one of our most important players and probably his most consistent year. This happened at the age of 28 going on 29.
We then have English and Sweet at 24 and 23 respectively and many can’t see room for improvement?

Made a bit bold as obviously he’s shown a bit prior.

 

[Bald]

I find it amazing that 12 months ago Josh Bruce was being ridiculed and a bit of a whipping boy. He gets a great preseason in and is one of our most important players and probably his most consistent year. This happened at the age of 28 going on 29.
We then have English and Sweet at 24 and 23 respectively and many can’t see room for improvement?

It’s mind boggling isn’t it.