AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[Bjo187]

I don't think this new club will be successful at all. Way too long after the initial Club the broncos.
Look at the trouble that Fremantle and Port had for years and they were a legitimate alternative. Mind you the bar is a lot lower for NRL they would be content with 10k crowds.

 

[GC2015]

I don't think this new club will be successful at all. Way too long after the initial Club the broncos.
Look at the trouble that Fremantle and Port had for years and they were a legitimate alternative. Mind you the bar is a lot lower for NRL they would be content with 10k crowds.

People don't seem to understand that about half of Brisbane dislikes the Broncos. There is definitely huge potential for this team to win over a lot of rugby league fans in Brisbane, Moreton Bay and the Sunny Coast.

 

[On the quiet]

NRL-ready for 2023: Reasons behind Dolphins' successful bid

The Dolphins have been granted a club licence to join the NRL in 2023

www.nrl.com

Confirmation from the NRL that Redcliffe is entering their competition in 2023.

The NRL stated this morning that part of the conditions laid out for the Dolphins to enter the NRL was a commitment to invest $2 million per year into participation and development pathways in their region. This is going to seriously shake things up in the Queensland turf war. If you look at where the majority of the Lions' academy picks have come from, you will notice the big ones have mostly come from the northern Brisbane/Moreton Bay/Sunshine Coast corridor that Redcliffe will be targeting from today onwards - Harris Andrews (Northern Brisbane), Eric Hipwood (Sunshine Coast), Tom Fullarton (Sunshine Coast), Jack Payne (Sunshine Coast), Conor McFadyen (Northern Brisbane). I just hope the AFL is ready to combat this by providing more support to the two Queensland teams.

Master coach Wayne Bennett will be announced as their inaugural coach soon and they are targeting some big names like Munster and Ponga. Redcliffe is a very wealthy club for anyone who doesn't know. The AFL can't afford to underestimate the effect this announcement is going to have on the Queensland sporting market going forward.

Geez I would like to be Munster or Ponga, Dolphins will pay overs to get a couple high profile players for 2023. Reckon Haas (young prop forward) from the Broncos would also be targeted with a huge long-term offer.

Talking of overs a Fox journalist 'John Ralph' reckon Suns will be that desperate to keep King they will likely offer a 3 or 4 years contract for a million per year.

 

[Bjo187]

Really on reflection I think the AFL made an error by bringing in the two teams in 2 years. Not only did it ruin the draft for too long it also meant that attracting high-quality players to the new clubs was more difficult because they were both at pretty much the same time. They should have put full focus into making the clubs successful for a few years, getting the right coaches etc prior to bringing in another new team, that's more important than having a bye for a few years.

 

[Seedsfan]

The AFL with never overtake the NRL in Queensland. Redcliffe is a second tier club and has 100m in assets

With the Storm having their zone on the Sunshine Coast they will be producing enough talent for 5 clubs

 

[NoobPie]

The AFL with never overtake the NRL in Queensland. Redcliffe is a second tier club and has 100m in assets

With the Storm having their zone on the Sunshine Coast they will be producing enough talent for 5 clubs

What does Redcliffe having 100M in assets have anything to do with the price of fish? Do you understand what a leagues club is?

And what has the Storm having their zone on the sunshine coast mean they will be producing talent for 5 clubs?

You're so confused

 

[GC2015]

2023 will be a big year for Queensland in both the NRL and AFL with the two best coaches of the modern era both taking up senior coaching roles in the sunshine state. Wayne Bennett to coach the Dolphins and Alastair Clarkson to coach the Suns.

 

[weewilly]

The AFL with never overtake the NRL in Queensland. Redcliffe is a second tier club and has 100m in assets

With the Storm having their zone on the Sunshine Coast they will be producing enough talent for 5 clubs

I don't think the AFL wants or needs to take over from RL in QLD. It just needs to get a decent market share in a growing market to make it worthwhile!

 

[GC2015]

The AFL will never overtake the NRL in Queensland.

It depends on where you're talking about.

Brisbane's large population and strong preference towards rugby league essentially guarantees the state of Queensland (in general) will likely always be an RL state. However, Gold Coast and potentially even Cairns are ripe for the taking if the AFL get it right. The split on the GC sits around the 60/40 mark in favour of rugby league over Aussie rules and that's mainly due to the vast majority of migration coming from Sydney and Melbourne.

Although they are closer in proximity, comparing Brisbane's sporting preferences to Gold Coast's is akin to comparing Sydney with Wagga Wagga. Aussie rules has a far greater relative following in the Gold Coast/Riverina than it does in Brisbane/Sydney.

 

[Fire]

The AFL with never overtake the NRL in Queensland. Redcliffe is a second tier club and has 100m in assets

Sounds like Southport. Weird metric you chose to back your thoughts up there.

 

[Seedsfan]

What does Redcliffe having 100M in assets have anything to do with the price of fish? Do you understand what a leagues club is?

And what has the Storm having their zone on the sunshine coast mean they will be producing talent for 5 clubs?

You're so confused

It shows the strength of the game there. Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs

 

[Gigantor]

It shows the strength of the game there. Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs

Given the representation of Pacific Islanders in the NRL (which is a fantastic thing to see), as along as immigration continued into the Sunshine State, they could probably have 10 NRL teams in Qld (from the perspective of finding playing talent).

 

[Rob]

It shows the strength of the game there. Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs

To be fair, NRL players have to come from somewhere and outside NSW and Queensland the participation rate for rugby league is virtually zero. You could just as easily argue that so many players coming from those 2 states show how weak the game is elsewhere.

 

[Seedsfan]

To be fair, NRL players have to come from somewhere and outside NSW and Queensland the participation rate for rugby league is virtually zero. You could just as easily argue that so many players coming from those 2 states show how weak the game is elsewhere.

What’s your point? If the discussion was the strength of Rugby league outside of Auckland NSW and Queensland then I would agree with you

 

[Rob]

What’s your point? If the discussion was the strength of Rugby league outside of Auckland NSW and Queensland then I would agree with you

My point is that arguing Queensland has strong numbers because of high NRL player numbers doesn't necessarily add up, because outside of NSW it's not actually played much.
Where else could the NRL get its players, if not from NSW and Queensland? You could halve participation rates and there'd still be just as many NRL players from those states.

 

[Seedsfan]

My point is that arguing Queensland has strong numbers because of high NRL player numbers doesn't necessarily add up, because outside of NSW it's not actually played much.
Where else could the NRL get its players, if not from NSW and Queensland? You could halve participation rates and there'd still be just as many NRL players from those states.

But we are discussing the NRL v AFL in Queensland not the rest of Australia

 

[Rob]

But we are discussing the NRL v AFL in Queensland not the rest of Australia

But you're using NRL players from Queensland to prove your point.
Why not just raw playing numbers?

 

[NoobPie]

It shows the strength of the game there.

It doesn't do that at all. It would only do that if any of the actual accumulation of those assets was related to the actual football clubs activity itself. Someone pointed out earlier in this thread (or another thread) that Dolphins played a final this year (while they were bidding for an NRL licence!) in front of tumbleweeds.

So confused

Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs

What's your actual relevant point? They can fill as many NRL teams as the like but they only have to play against other NRL clubs

Obviously talent share isn't directly proportionate to participation share, but here are the participation rates among 9 to 17 year olds in Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast

....if that region is producing talent for 5 NRL teams than good luck maintaining interest in that league over the next few decades!

 

[NoobPie]

Just to drive home the above point, the following are the participation rates for 9 to 17 year olds for NSW, Vic, WA and SA

NSW



Victoria


WA




SA



So you are looking at 2 to 3 times the participants in the AFL heartlands compared to the RL equivalents as the AF rates continue to close in

So, while the AFL genuinely rivalling the NRL in those states may be decades away, that aint going to be because RL there is producing more players for the NRL than AF is for the AFL!

 

[Seedsfan]

It doesn't do that at all. It would only do that if any of the actual accumulation of those assets was related to the actual football clubs activity itself. Someone pointed out earlier in this thread (or another thread) that Dolphins played a final this year (while they were bidding for an NRL licence!) in front of tumbleweeds.

So confused




What's your actual relevant point? They can fill as many NRL teams as the like but they only have to play against other NRL clubs

Obviously talent share isn't directly proportionate to participation share, but here are the participation rates among 9 to 17 year olds in Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast

....if that region is producing talent for 5 NRL teams than good luck maintaining interest in that league over the next few decades!



View attachment 1260965

Are you taking the piss? Seriously, one club having 100m does highlight the strength of the game. They are already a more sustainable business than the Suns and have not played one game at the top level

The suns would die with out the AFL pumping huge money in. You can post all the pictures you want to try and hammer home you point. Yet no link? You select an age and gender range to suit your argument.

 

[Seedsfan]

But you're using NRL players from Queensland to prove your point.
Why not just raw playing numbers?

Because it shows the level of talent, those who can make it vs those who play for fun

 

[Taylor]

Really on reflection I think the AFL made an error by bringing in the two teams in 2 years. Not only did it ruin the draft for too long it also meant that attracting high-quality players to the new clubs was more difficult because they were both at pretty much the same time. They should have put full focus into making the clubs successful for a few years, getting the right coaches etc prior to bringing in another new team, that's more important than having a bye for a few years.

Since GWS entered the competition in the 2011 draft (so excluding the players they were able to list outside the draft in Sheil, Treloar etc...):

GWS has taken 38 first round picks, 20 of them moved to another club. That's 52.6%

 

[NoobPie]

Are you taking the piss? Seriously, one club having 100m does highlight the strength of the game. They are already a more sustainable business than the Suns and have not played one game at the top level

No they are not. Not even close.

In terms of revenue, their leagues club actually has less than half the revenue of the Southport Sharks.

https://southportsharks.com.au/app/uploads/2019-Annual-Report.pdf

https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.redcliffe_leagues_club_limited.84f0f42670a420fe93e04b02f88edfe7.html

...which doesn't mean anything about the relative strength of the associated football clubs or codes, it just means the Sharks have a bigger Leagues club. It certaintly doesn't mean either would be sustainable in the NRL / AFL

The suns would die with out the AFL pumping huge money in.

So? AFL clubs need to be far bigger for a start - the Suns own revenues are probably ample to survive in the NRL with the normal club distribution - but ultimately the AFL can give bigger distributions to the Suns until kingdom come. I am not sure how it is relevant to any point you've tried to make though

You can post all the pictures you want to try and hammer home you point. Yet no link?

Really? You thing I've created fake tables and made it look professional just to beat some anonymous clown whose only trick is doing laughing emojis on posters that are schooling them?

Anyway, here is the Ausplay power BI I was using

Microsoft Power BI

app.powerbi.com

Enjoy!

You select an age and gender range to suit your argument.

I chose 9 to 17 because I thought it was most relevant to the supply of future players. You can put your own selections in.....I'll even do it for you if you can't work it out for yourself

The fact you think it would change anything just reveals how far out of your depth you are.

So confused

 

[Seedsfan]

No they are not. Not even close.

In terms of revenue, their leagues club actually has less than half the revenue of the Southport Sharks.

https://southportsharks.com.au/app/uploads/2019-Annual-Report.pdf

https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.redcliffe_leagues_club_limited.84f0f42670a420fe93e04b02f88edfe7.html

...which doesn't mean anything about the relative strength of the associated football clubs or codes, it just means the Sharks have a bigger Leagues club. It certaintly doesn't mean either would be sustainable in the NRL / AFL





So? AFL clubs need to be far bigger for a start - the Suns own revenues are probably ample to survive in the NRL with the normal club distribution - but ultimately the AFL can give bigger distributions to the Suns until kingdom come. I am not sure how it is relevant to any point you've tried to make though




Really? You thing I've created fake tables and made it look professional just to beat some anonymous clown whose only trick is doing laughing emojis on posters that are schooling them?

Anyway, here is the Ausplay power BI I was using

Microsoft Power BI

app.powerbi.com

Enjoy!



I chose 9 to 17 because I thought it was most relevant to the supply of future players. You can put your own selections in.....I'll even do it for you if you can't work it out for yourself

The fact you think it would change anything just reveals how far out of your depth you are.

So confused

Lol you are blinded by your bias the money is in men’s sports. Your isolated age demographic sees the rugby codes 22.6% of the market. Where as Australian football has less than 7.5%

In NSW 17% to rugby and 5.6% to Australian football so the gap isn’t closing like you claim

 

[GC2015]

Mate, the NRL haven'e segmented anything. They've introduced the team that News ltd let them bring in.

Then why did they use the greater population number in the northern corridor to justify a team over the western corridor? They are literally using the word 'corridor' and attaching a geographical direction before it to describe these areas. If that's not segmentation then I don't know what is.

Also, it's going to take decades for the majority of the likes of Tom Trbojevic to choose the AFL in NSW and QLD. Certainly seems a lot more of the talented ones are going to the AFL over the last decade or so.

Not necessarily. Darren Lockyer is an example of an Aussie rules junior who would have likely stuck with the code if he was coming through now due to a greater number of clubs existing throughout Queensland as well as the Brisbane Lions academy. He only took up rugby league because he moved to a country town and the commute to Brisbane was too far to continue.