Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[GWT6]

100% correct - so if Hawthorn fans are expecting a similar 3-4 year timeline from 2005 -8 , then IMO they are going to be very disappointed with Sam Mitchell[ which would be very unfair to him] As already stated, Clarko had generational teenage forwards Franklin and Roughy in his pocket late 2004 , who would go on and kick 180 goals between them 3 - 4 years later en route to a flag. Call me cynical and a poor judge of footballl talent, but I just don't see this with the Jeka's , Kosi's and Mitch Lewis of this world. Time will tell, but I think patience and realism [ which possibly haven't been Hawthorn traits for the past few years ] need to be the order of the day for the incoming coach

Not quite correct. Clarkson inherited a side that finished second bottom with four wins, so we had a priority pick in 2004, but we still had to pick the right players. And history shows that we nailed both of those picks (Roughead at 2 and Franklin at 5), whereas the other two teams with priority selections that year (Tigers and Dogs) got one pick right (Deledio at 1, Griffen at 3) but missed with the other (Tambling at 4, Williams at 6), which goes some way towards explaining why we won a flag in 08 and they didn't.

Lewis was acquired because we took the bold decision (at Clarkson's urging) to trade away our only quality forward at the time (Nathan Thompson) for picks 10 and 26; we then did a deal with Collingwood to upgrade pick 10 to 7, and grabbed Lewis. So Jordan hardly fell into Clarkson's lap - it was a high-stakes trade that paid off in spades, noting that Thompson did play some good footy at North.

I think something that does make rebuilds a bit more challenging these days is that clubs are a bit more streetwise in terms of how they value draft picks. For instance, I can't imagine any club today giving up a first and second rounder for a good - but not great - key forward/back-up ruck like Thompson.

Still, what hasn't changed is the importance of getting your early picks right. If Hawthorn is able to use its 3 picks in the top 25 of this year's draft on three 150/200-game players, it will set itself up well for the next 6-10 years - given the likelihood we'll have another early pick next year, and the promise shown by our first-round picks from the previous two drafts, Day and Grainger-Barras.

I'm definitely in the glass half-full camp.

We're mostly in agreement, where we differ is you have faith that the last build can be replicated, whereas I doubt lightning will stick twice. Also, as far as rebuilds go the Hawks are more like the 2001 than 2004. right now. I don't see anyone of the potential of Hodge and Mitchell on your list.

 

[Xtreme]

Miranda Kerr will never marry you.

Shes ugly

I'd much rather someone who doesn't have pointy elbows!

 

[hawkman]

We're mostly in agreement, where we differ is you have faith that the last build can be replicated, whereas I doubt lightning will stick twice. Also, as far as rebuilds go the Hawks are more like the 2001 than 2004. right now. I don't see anyone of the potential of Hodge and Mitchell on your list.

At the end of 2004, Hodge was a failed number 1 pick and Sam Mitchell was compared to Daniel Harris from North. No one really saw what they would become

 

[BuddyHawk]

We're mostly in agreement, where we differ is you have faith that the last build can be replicated, whereas I doubt lightning will stick twice. Also, as far as rebuilds go the Hawks are more like the 2001 than 2004. right now. I don't see anyone of the potential of Hodge and Mitchell on your list.

I don't think we'll win a flag in the next four years - unless we unearth the next Buddy in this upcoming draft! - so in that sense I agree with you. But I think the list is in better shape now than when Clarkson took over in 04 - aside from the not insignificant detail of having just 1, as opposed to 3, top 10 picks to play with.

The 04 side had a lot of players who were ageing, overpaid or underperforming - or a combination of all 3. One thing we did exceptionally well during the Clarkson years was manage the salary cap, so we have plenty of space to manoeuvre in the coming years. Which is how it should be, given we are a bottom 4/6 team.

I think a realistic target for Mitchell is to play finals by his third year, 2024. By then the draft crop from this year will be 21/22, and the younger players currently on the list who showed some good signs this year - Day (when he wasn't injured), Jiath, Moore, Scrimshaw, Kosi - will be in that prime 23-26 range.

 

[Jack Green]

Those trade ins filled needs and all have been solid to good pick ups.

Also, don't rate Jiath or Kosi after this seasons form?

I don't think we'll win a flag in the next four years - unless we unearth the next Buddy in this upcoming draft! - so in that sense I agree with you. But I think the list is in better shape now than when Clarkson took over in 04 - aside from the not insignificant detail of having just 1, as opposed to 3, top 10 picks to play with.

The 04 side had a lot of players who were ageing, overpaid or underperforming - or a combination of all 3. One thing we did exceptionally well during the Clarkson years was manage the salary cap, so we have plenty of space to manoeuvre in the coming years. Which is how it should be, given we are a bottom 4/6 team.

I think a realistic target for Mitchell is to play finals by his third year, 2024. By then the draft crop from this year will be 21/22, and the younger players currently on the list who showed some good signs this year - Day (when he wasn't injured), Jiath, Moore, Scrimshaw, Kosi - will be in that prime 23-26 range.

That's the crux of the matter though isn't it when comparing the list from end of draft selection 2004 to end of trade/ draft selection 2021.[ coming up]
You'd already got your no 1 pick Hodge - this time around you haven't.
With priority picks now gone and and this year no trades for picks you have a top 10 and a couple of early /mid 20's.
2004- 4 inside 20
2005 - 4 inside 20
Nailed half with beauties - couple of serviceables / couple no good. You had a great draft hand and killed it . A 50% success rate with 4 great players . That's a gold strike rate. You simply haven't got that draft hand now , or drafted no. 1's previously as you before Clarko arrived!!

That's why I feel now in an 18 team comp, not 16 the rebuild will take far longer- even with a large slice of luck. If that is how it pans out , the players you have traded in who are now 28+ will be on the wane or retired when you legitimately challenge again. The Hawthorn club's strategy of [from what we have heard], putting everyone 28 + up for trade would appear that they had come to that realisation to.
Getting rid of TOB 28 come season start and Ceglar 31 was a move in the right direction, but of course didn't help out with those prized picks which you netted, which you correctly point out, when you moved on players in the early to mid 2000's

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawthorn also did their tanking early, got 2 top picks in 2004, which they nailed, then peaked at the perfect time. Their list was approaching it's prime when everyone else was watching GC and GWS get the pick of the draft for several years.

No disrespect to Clarkson, I think he is the greatest coach I've seen in my lifetime, but he had everything line up perfectly. I can't see Mitchell getting that lucky.

‘hawks screwed up early picks in 2005 and 2006. Imagine perhaps Selwood and pendles in the guts?

 

[Jack Green]

‘hawks screwed up early picks in 2005 and 2006. Imagine perhaps Selwood and pendles in the guts?

Every club will have huge misses no matter how good your list manager and recruiting and talent spotting staff are. You have to get huge wins with your top picks however. This Hawthorn did in the time-frame you mention, in spades .

As a comparison with present day Saints who picked BILLINGS over BONT, McCARTIN over PETRACCA , COFFIELD over NAUGHTON and pick 6 for a now retired CARLISLE. That's a 3,1.7,6 pick over 7 years . And that explains why the Saints will be where they are. Compare that to Hawks 2004 return in one super draft Roughead 2, Franklin 5 , Lewis 7 = Bingo!

 

[TylerDurden]

Every club will have huge misses no matter how good your list manager and recruiting and talent spotting staff are. You have to get huge wins with your top picks however. This Hawthorn did in the time-frame you mention, in spades .

As a comparison with present day Saints who picked BILLINGS over BONT, McCARTIN over PETRACCA , COFFIELD over NAUGHTON and pick 6 for a now retired CARLISLE. That's a 3,1.7,6 pick over 7 years . And that explains why the Saints will be where they are. Compare that to Hawks 2004 return in one super draft Roughead 2, Franklin 5 , Lewis 7 = Bingo!

We also got Birchall the year after and Rioli 2 years after that. It take a number of years.

Like the Dees, who stockpiled Petracca, Oliver and Salem in different years. Also had Gawn, Viney on the list. And traded in May and Lever for high picks. A flag takes a varied approach. We also nailed our trades in Burgoyne, Hale, Lake, Gibson, McEvoy, Gunston, Frawley (FA) etc.

 

[Jack Green]

We also got Birchall the year after and Rioli 2 years after that. It take a number of years.

Like the Dees, who stockpiled Petracca, Oliver and Salem in different years. Also had Gawn, Viney on the list. And traded in May and Lever for high picks. A flag takes a varied approach. We also nailed our trades in Burgoyne, Hale, Lake, Gibson, McEvoy etc.

Yep, it doesn't happen overnight. Takes years . On the basis of that, when would you realistically expect the Hawks to be genuine contenders and playing off again the last day in September

 

[5minutes_of_Dew]

I honestly think with the best 22 we'll have for next year that we could make finals, I thought the same thing about this year and then we lost a few important players to injury (Siciliy, Gunston, Impey & Day) and then we went off the boil. But the evidence was there in the last 2 months that they're easily capable of matching it with the best sides in the comp, problem is they're mostly quite young and can't do it consistently. I think we finish anywhere from 6th-14th next year, and I'd probably prefer lower because I don't think we can win a flag right now.

2025 is probably realistic for contention assuming we hit drafts hard and do things properly.

 

[Jack Green]

I honestly think with the best 22 we'll have for next year that we could make finals, I thought the same thing about this year and then we lost a few important players to injury (Siciliy, Gunston, Impey & Day) and then we went off the boil. But the evidence was there in the last 2 months that they're easily capable of matching it with the best sides in the comp, problem is they're mostly quite young and can't do it consistently. I think we finish anywhere from 6th-14th next year, and I'd probably prefer lower because I don't think we can win a flag right now.

2025 is probably realistic for contention assuming we hit drafts hard and do things properly.

I'm not as bullish about either next year making finals or the 4 season timeline for flag contention as occurred with Clarkson in 4 seasons from 2004 to 2008. I just don't see the calibre of young generational talent like Franklin, Roughead, Hodge , Lewis , Mitchell on the list to make this happen. IMO the operative word is generational. 4 of those guys would probably walk into Hawthorn's team of the century - and when you consider you've won 13 flags in that time that's saying something

 

[HairyO]

Yep, it doesn't happen overnight. Takes years . On the basis of that, when would you realistically expect the Hawks to be genuine contenders and playing off again the last day in September

I would expect 2023 to at least be in the running for finals, if not winning one. I think it is more about the coach than the list though. Our list without injuries is pretty good, and about to become even stronger, with 3 picks inside the top 25.

We probably have top 3 or 4 for backline in the comp, the forwards have a lot of potential but are still quite young (which is why we really need Breust and Gunston to be fit), but need some class in the middle - which hopefully is the focus of those 3 top 25 picks.

 

[TylerDurden]

I'm not as bullish about either next year making finals or the 4 season timeline for flag contention as occurred with Clarkson in 4 seasons from 2004 to 2008. I just don't see the calibre of young generational talent like Franklin, Roughead, Hodge , Lewis , Mitchell on the list to make this happen. IMO the operative word is generational. 4 of those guys would probably walk into Hawthorn's team of the century - and when you consider you've won 13 flags in that time that's saying something

Need a lot of luck. Of those you mention, Buddy was pick 5 (which we have this year), Lewis pick 7 (plenty of players that never make it at that pick), and Mitchell was overlooked, then taken at 36.

We've got a young list now. And will be adding another 3 inside pick 25 in a month's time.

We've got talents such as Day, DGB, CJ, Scrimshaw, Kosi etc that are only scratching the surface.

Time will tell.

 

[Paracleet]

Need a lot of luck. Of those you mention, Buddy was pick 5 (which we have this year), Lewis pick 7 (plenty of players that never make it at that pick), and Mitchell was overlooked, then taken at 36.

We've got a young list now. And will be adding another 3 inside pick 25 in a month's time.

We've got talents such as Day, DGB, CJ, Scrimshaw, Kosi etc that are only scratching the surface.

Time will tell.

At the end of this season Hawthorn had the 9th oldest list. The profile of the squad is consistent with a side competing for finals, not one year into a rebuild.
Generally a squad will be at it youngest right at the end of a rebuild: It's going to be 3 years minimum short of real extraordinary draft luck.

 

[Jack Green]

I would expect 2023 to at least be in the running for finals, if not winning one. I think it is more about the coach than the list though. Our list without injuries is pretty good, and about to become even stronger, with 3 picks inside the top 25.

We probably have top 3 or 4 for backline in the comp, the forwards have a lot of potential but are still quite young (which is why we really need Breust and Gunston to be fit), but need some class in the middle - which hopefully is the focus of those 3 top 25 picks.

I would expect 2023 to at least be in the running for finals, if not winning one. I think it is more about the coach than the list though. Our list without injuries is pretty good, and about to become even stronger, with 3 picks inside the top 25.

We probably have top 3 or 4 for backline in the comp, the forwards have a lot of potential but are still quite young (which is why we really need Breust and Gunston to be fit), but need some class in the middle - which hopefully is the focus of those 3 top 25 picks.

I've mentioned Gunston elsewhere regards injury. Wish ill on no player injury or otherwise but 2 bouts of back surgery at 30+ don't feel me with confidence.
List without injuries - but all sides would say that wouldn't they. I rate the Saints a mid 6 side and hope Gresham and Patton who are about 23/4, missed the whole year and are really good young players for us come back from ankle and achilles injuries respectively, but there's no guarantee is there
Your 3 top picks in 25 unless they are Chris Judd or Matt Rowell aren't going to be world beaters in their first season or two are they. I wouldn't have thought Hodge or Mitchell set the game alight there first 20-30 games??

More about the coach than the list ?? Interesting. You've had the generational super coach who has missed finals 4 of last 5 years.He took 3 seasons to get you into a finals series 2004 - 2007 with generational IMO talents . First time coach is doing it in 2 years and winning a final to boot!!
From the Hawks last 3 seasons of missing finals , you seem very confident that an untried coach can do it in 2

I appreciate your response . I appreciate your confidence , but I don't share it. Time will tell however

 

[Jack Green]

At the end of this season Hawthorn had the 9th oldest list. The profile of the squad is consistent with a side competing for finals, not one year into a rebuild.
Generally a squad will be at it youngest right at the end of a rebuild: It's going to be 3 years minimum short of real extraordinary draft luck.

I would have thought that was clear.

 

[Jack Green]

Need a lot of luck. Of those you mention, Buddy was pick 5 (which we have this year), Lewis pick 7 (plenty of players that never make it at that pick), and Mitchell was overlooked, then taken at 36.

We've got a young list now. And will be adding another 3 inside pick 25 in a month's time.

We've got talents such as Day, DGB, CJ, Scrimshaw, Kosi etc that are only scratching the surface.

Time will tell.

Need a lot of luck - absolutely spot on. Scratching the surface is what you have done and will continue to do. I just don't think all Hawk fans are on board with the journey ahead, But yes, time will tell

 

[hawkman]

At the end of this season Hawthorn had the 9th oldest list. The profile of the squad is consistent with a side competing for finals, not one year into a rebuild.
Generally a squad will be at it youngest right at the end of a rebuild: It's going to be 3 years minimum short of real extraordinary draft luck.

It is now 15th based on current lists

AFL Club Lists for 2022 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[TylerDurden]

At the end of this season Hawthorn had the 9th oldest list. The profile of the squad is consistent with a side competing for finals, not one year into a rebuild.
Generally a squad will be at it youngest right at the end of a rebuild: It's going to be 3 years minimum short of real extraordinary draft luck.

Mate, we had a 38 year old on our list.
We're now the 5th youngest. The rebuild is well and truly under way.

 

[parsons nose]

It is now 15th based on current lists

AFL Club Lists for 2022 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Thanks for posting this Hawkman. Our age profile is more encouraging than I originally thought. Also we have scope to bring players in though the rookie and preseason drafts. I’m bullish about our fortunes this year.

 

[Jack Green]

Mate, we had a 38 year old on our list.
We're now the 5th youngest. The rebuild is well and truly under way.

no doubt - but as you said you've just scratched the surface. Correct me if I'm wrong here but 4 of the 5 young lads you mentioned would not have played 20 games?? [ Scrimshaw - a very good player - the exception. You are some years of rebuild behind other clubs and it will take time
And that is how the system works!! And may I add, we are very lucky it does

 

[Paracleet]

Mate, we had a 38 year old on our list.
We're now the 5th youngest. The rebuild is well and truly under way.

I was indirectly addressing some of the starry eyed posts in the last page or two where hawks fans are pondering finals in 2022 or 2023, it's not happening.

 

[matey]

Have found a few players out of no where and I put a lot of it down to the development/BH coach last couple of years. Add in this years crop and with a few quality players at the experience end to guide them …… I reckon we will surprise!

 

[Jack Green]

Thanks for posting this Hawkman. Our age profile is more encouraging than I originally thought. Also we have scope to bring players in though the rookie and preseason drafts. I’m bullish about our fortunes this year.

Thanks for the stats - interesting.
You've done well from 18 months ago when if Poppy had played it was the oldest list in AFL history!!
Certainly moved in right direction IMO. TOB and Ceglar 28 and 31 seasons start - gone - good - they are not part of your next flag tilt.
I personally think the average age of your best 22-25 is more applicable than your list

Parsons Nose - I'm back to my original question. Your bullish about the Hawks prospects in 2022. The great Clarko who was a master coach had you missing finals the last 3 years running. Your a year or so into a rebuild and scratching the surface with an untried coach.
Can i enquire how bullish you are

 

[Jack Green]

Have found a few players out of no where and I put a lot of it down to the development/BH coach last couple of years. Add in this years crop and with a few quality players at the experience end to guide them …… I reckon we will surprise!

Got me hooked Matey

How surprised????