Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Prochard123]

I'd go with the current AA

Darcy Moore disposals are all uncontested

Funny you say that when 85% of May’s kicks come from kick ins.

With another 14% coming from uncontested Jake Lloyd switches deep in defence lol

May must be glad that Moore got injured otherwise he would’ve never had a chance as AA

 

[Wce17]

Hey knightmare. Tom Joyce has just been given the flick. Is he a player who is likely to get a second shot? Would he be a good option for the eagles to rookie? Where did you rate him in his draft year? TIA.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Funny you say that when 85% of May’s kicks come from kick ins.

With another 14% coming from uncontested Jake Lloyd switches deep in defence lol

May must be glad that Moore got injured otherwise he would’ve never had a chance as AA

you had me till Jake Lloyd..

 

[Knightmare]

Hey knightmare. Tom Joyce has just been given the flick. Is he a player who is likely to get a second shot? Would he be a good option for the eagles to rookie? Where did you rate him in his draft year? TIA.

There are delisted free agents I would give a shot to.

The question you want to ask yourself each time is: what is the probability the player in question will be a best-22 player? And are their chances immediately or down the track respectively?

Joyce is one I'd sign to my state league team, but not someone I have that vision where I can see that clear path to a best-22 spot.

Why? Defensively he hasn't been all that impressive in the VFL games I've seen. Pressure and tackling on the weak side.

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

Sam Frost certainly is.

To a lesser extent I'd say, Liam Jones and Aliir Aliir, and despite kicking deficiencies, they're both clear-cut top-10 key defenders in the competition.

There aren't that many key defenders who are great by foot. We're starting to see more come through, but it's not the most common area of proficiency by position.

Frosty can be really dangerous by foot aswell though.

I listened to the podcast was surprised to hear that you got Saints taking Erasmus, i don't think there depth in their midfield is bad as they have alot of players coming back including Clark getting more midfield game time.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

There's a difference between being a weapon by foot, and realising you limitations and taking simple kicks, its those that think they can kick and take risks that cause issues.

If you played him alongside some good kicks he could do simple kicks sideways to find them and let them take it on.

Happy to stick him down back next to Caleb Daniel if no one else wants him! Leek would be perfect for our list

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Hey Knightmare, how would you compare Sinn's games played on the wing compared to his games as a half back? I've heard he is far more natural at half back as he has more space to find a way through but I've heard he could be in Carltons sights if he slides to the late teens via a pick swap to move back into the first round.

We need speed in our midfield unit but are a bit overstocked in the half back line with Saad Williams Docherty etc

 

[Knightmare]

Frosty can be really dangerous by foot aswell though.

I listened to the podcast was surprised to hear that you got Saints taking Erasmus, i don't think there depth in their midfield is bad as they have alot of players coming back including Clark getting more midfield game time.

I can't say I'm at all enthused by St Kilda's midfield after Steele.

Clark through the midfield could be a second option if he gets a major role through there next season, but there isn't a second star through there unless Clark develops into that guy, with Crouch definitely not that guy. Saints need at least one more Steele level star if the Saints have any interest in contending.

Erasmus I like early and is one of a few along with Johnson who I took in the bigfooty official phantom for the Saints who could be considered.

Hey Knightmare, how would you compare Sinn's games played on the wing compared to his games as a half back? I've heard he is far more natural at half back as he has more space to find a way through but I've heard he could be in Carltons sights if he slides to the late teens via a pick swap to move back into the first round.

We need speed in our midfield unit but are a bit overstocked in the half back line with Saad Williams Docherty etc

Sinn I like off half-back. On a wing he'd need a stronger contested component and to be higher production.

Down back for Sinn is the play because he'll take on the game with ball in hand and likes to kick with more space in front of him to he can search out the more damaging option, often hitting good kicks through the corridor.

My suggestion to Carlton is ignore Sinn. At least based on my own evaluation, wherever he is taken, he won't be best available, and there are likely to be similar types available later on who could be just as effective.

 

[Knightmare]

Frosty can be really dangerous by foot aswell though.

I listened to the podcast was surprised to hear that you got Saints taking Erasmus, i don't think there depth in their midfield is bad as they have alot of players coming back including Clark getting more midfield game time.

Frost has been much better with his run throughout his career than by foot, with his run being his weapon offensively. Like seemingly ever bad kick joining Hawthorn, he looks better since joining the Hawks by foot, but he's still someone who is better off handballing and remains by position inefficient and has his share of changers.

 

[bc27]

Where do you have josh Fahey going? Do you see a bid coming inside the top 20 and can gws match that bid?

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you have josh Fahey going? Do you see a bid coming inside the top 20 and can gws match that bid?

I'm not expecting a bid coming inside the top-20, but second round I could see a bid coming.

GWS can match any bids. Academy and Next-Generation Academy rules differ in that for the various NSW and QLD club academies, they can match top-20 bids.

 

[BORIS332]

Knightmare how do you rate Harvey Harrison from SA? Just dominated the SA combine, has big numbers at SANFL U18 level. I notice he didn't get much of a gig in the champs - emergency for the first game, then stationed up forward. Do you think he rises with his combine results?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare how do you rate Harvey Harrison from SA? Just dominated the SA combine, has big numbers at SANFL U18 level. I notice he didn't get much of a gig in the champs - emergency for the first game, then stationed up forward. Do you think he rises with his combine results?

As a concept, I don't see combine results increasing a players draft prospects (see draft combine wrap piece).

Harrison won't be featuring on my extended draft board but is considered to be in the mix late draft.

If Harrison is picked, it's based on what he has done during the year.

 

[Prochard123]

Hi Knightmare , who in the draft do you think is the best defensive mid/extractor? So we are looking for a Hugh Greenwood

1

Hugh Greenwood

Age

32

Ht

190cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.9

4star

K

8.8

3star

HB

8.1

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

6.8

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

8.9

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.2

3star

T

7.6

5star

CL

4.4

5star

/Jarryd Lyons

17

Jarryd Lyons

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.5

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

8.7

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

4.8

5star

D

21.7

5star

K

14.7

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.1

5star

CL

4.7

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

CL

1.6

4star

/Jack Steele

9

Jack Steele

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.9

5star

K

8.7

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

6.8

5star

CL

3.6

5star

D

21.3

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

16.8

4star

K

5.0

2star

HB

11.8

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

6.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

(early years) type?

Would that player be available in the 2nd round - 3rd round range?

Would you agree that these defensive mids in general don't get drafted early given clubs prefer flashier offensive mids? Is there an opportunity here?

 

[year of the cat]

Hi Knightmare, do you have any information on the testing for speed, agility and 2km of both Zac Taylor and Connor Macdonald - two mids the Cats may look at?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare , who in the draft do you think is the best defensive mid/extractor? So we are looking for a Hugh Greenwood/Jarryd Lyons/Jack Steele (early years) type?

Would that player be available in the 2nd round - 3rd round range?

Would you agree that these defensive mids in general don't get drafted early given clubs prefer flashier offensive mids? Is there an opportunity here?

Horne-Francis defensively is the best I've seen at this age and stage.

Knevitt could be that guy. But again too early for the Pies to have a shot at.

Dib as an NGA the Pies have first access to and while tiny is all contested/pressure.

Angus Sheldrick 2nd round and Kade Dittmar 3rd round are the two I'd nominate to be those guys you're thinking of. Neither are great kicks, but they're both sure competitive as ball winning and will bring the pressure.

There isn't in the junior ranks much in the way of defensive mids, but midfielders broadly and ball winning midfielders each year go lower than they should, so there are always opportunities. Whereas those flashier types where things tend to go wrong is they lack that contested component, and without that, they often don't have the careers many expect.

Hi Knightmare, do you have any information on the testing for speed, agility and 2km of both Zac Taylor and Connor Macdonald - two mids the Cats may look at?

Taylor and MacDonald weren't testing with no Metro combine.

Based on what they show on the field, Taylor should have tested well across the board and MacDonald should be good for endurance (and was one of the top 2km results - see my combine wrap for the strava version which was all that could be tested outside of the combine format) but speed/agility below average I would have thought.

 

[Big_Newon]

Horne-Francis defensively is the best I've seen at this age and stage.

Knevitt could be that guy. But again too early for the Pies to have a shot at.

Dib as an NGA the Pies have first access to and while tiny is all contested/pressure.

Angus Sheldrick 2nd round and Kade Dittmar 3rd round are the two I'd nominate to be those guys you're thinking of. Neither are great kicks, but they're both sure competitive as ball winning and will bring the pressure.

There isn't in the junior ranks much in the way of defensive mids, but midfielders broadly and ball winning midfielders each year go lower than they should, so there are always opportunities. Whereas those flashier types where things tend to go wrong is they lack that contested component, and without that, they often don't have the careers many expect.



Taylor and MacDonald weren't testing with no Metro combine.

Based on what they show on the field, Taylor should have tested well across the board and MacDonald should be good for endurance (and was one of the top 2km results - see my combine wrap for the strava version which was all that could be tested outside of the combine format) but speed/agility below average I would have thought.

MacDonald got about 6:10.

 

[M Malice]

Hi KM, Mitch Knevitt or Mitch Owens, you have them in that tier behind the top few in the draft, who in your opinion has the bigger upside and who would suit Brisbane's list build best?

 

[blueiris]

Hi KM, Mitch Knevitt or Mitch Owens, you have them in that tier behind the top few in the draft, who in your opinion has the bigger upside and who would suit Brisbane's list build best?

Personally I’d prefer neither

 

[M Malice]

Personally I’d prefer neither

2 of Goater, Wilmot, Johnson, Chesser and I'll be a happy chappy.

 

[blueiris]

2 of Goater, Wilmot, Johnson, Chesser and I'll be a happy chappy.

I’d add Sinn to that list I feel Sinn and Chesser both from Sandy Dragons would be a perfect draft the Lions like to bundle guys together as well.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, Mitch Knevitt or Mitch Owens, you have them in that tier behind the top few in the draft, who in your opinion has the bigger upside and who would suit Brisbane's list build best?

I like them both. They're both top-20 prospects in this draft for mine.

It almost depends on what you need. Knevitt is the better inside player. Owens outside and on a flank is the better option.

And they're two I wish the season continued for, as the way they were going that last month or two before the season halted, they were two of the form players and major improvers.

I currently have Owens higher in my power rankings, mostly due to being that later rapid grower which I think could see him being the one with the greater level of untapped upside, with the most improvement still to come.

They're both among the highest ceiling prospects in the draft. On upside they're clear-cut top-10, they're both lower floor though as they both haven't dominated on the level or with the regularity over the course of the season to the level others have. So it's betting on who they will become a few years from now as opposed to who they are today.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

I really want Goater at Port. I think he's a perfect fit for our midfield.

What % chance do you think he gets to our pick?

 

[Knightmare]

I really want Goater at Port. I think he's a perfect fit for our midfield.

What % chance do you think he gets to our pick?

% chance Goater is available at Port's pick? 75% chance to provide an educated guess. I'm not seeing a club before Port who should be preferring him, though I can see him being considered.

 

[Polo342]

Hey knightmare. Could you see Fremantle taking both Amiss and Mac Andrew?