Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[briztoon]

So what do GWS do for their 3rd pick this year, after Fahey bid they’ll be a the back of the draft with dogs and pies.

Shorter draft, similar to last year.

Pies have already indicated they’ll be passing on one or two picks. A couple of other teams potentially pass on their last pick, keeping a spot open for the SSP or even mid season draft, same as what happened last year.

So GWS last pick might be in the mid 50’s. Potentially some good prospects still on board then.

 

[Giant Strides]

So GWS last pick might be in the mid 50’s. Potentially some good prospects still on board then.

I think more to the point, GWS won't be taking a pick swap that takes them out of 2 early picks.

 

[briztoon]

I think more to the point, GWS won't be taking a pick swap that takes them out of 2 early picks.

Weren’t you essentially moving pick 13 in to the future, for a possible/probable top 6 pick.

 

[Giant Strides]

Weren’t you essentially moving pick 13 in to the future, for a possible/probable top 6 pick.

I simply doubt that happens.

 

[briztoon]

I simply doubt that happens.

Oh, I’m not saying it would happen, or that GWS should do it. Just speculating on speculation.

 

[Giant Strides]

Oh, I’m not saying it would happen, or that GWS should do it. Just speculating on speculation.

And I'm speculating on that speculation!

Unless we got a really good deal (such as Freo's #6 & #8 for #2- which I don't expect, before Freo supporters jump down my throat), then I can't see that we'll sell #13 into next year.

The only other option would be a really good deal for 2022 - an expected poorly performing club's first round pick. Again, very unlikely.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

The only other option would be a really good deal for 2022 - an expected poorly performing club's first round pick. Again, very unlikely.

Sounds like the proposed deal.

 

[Crow till I die]

And I'm speculating on that speculation!

Unless we got a really good deal (such as Freo's #6 & #8 for #2- which I don't expect, before Freo supporters jump down my throat), then I can't see that we'll sell #13 into next year.

The only other option would be a really good deal for 2022 - an expected poorly performing club's first round pick. Again, very unlikely.

Maybe pick 2 for pick 4 and a swap of 2022 1sts with adelaide..would probably be upgrading your 2022 1st to a pick between 3 and 6 and still get Andrew this year if he truly is the main target

 

[Giant Strides]

Maybe pick 2 for pick 4 and a swap of 2022 1sts with adelaide..would probably be upgrading your 2022 1st to a pick between 3 and 6 and still get Andrew this year if he truly is the main target

Possibly. But that then wouldn't involve moving pick #13 from this year, which was the speculation.

 

[Crow till I die]

Possibly. But that then wouldn't involve moving pick #13 from this year, which was the speculation.

Thats right. Only pick 2

 

[exxcessivve]

IF there’s no pick swaps (and I assume there will be), THEN:

1. North - Jason Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood (BID) - Nick Daicos
3. Western Bulldogs (BID) - Sam Darcy
4. GWS - Josh Gibcus
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan
6. Adelaide - Neil Erasmus
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Jye Amiss
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
11. St Kilda - Josh Rachele
12. West Coast - Matt Johnson
13. Essendon -Arlo Draper
14. Port -Josh Sinn
15. GWS -Mac Andrew (this is a bit of a shock but I don’t think he suits most of the other clubs above. Either they don’t need him, need their draftees to make a quicker impact, or can’t afford to take the risk with a rare high pick)
16. Brisbane - Jacob van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

18. Sydney - Tyler Sonsie
19. Melbourne - Marcus Windhager
20. Brisbane - Josh Goater

 

[GWS Goose]

IF there’s no pick swaps (and I assume there will be), THEN:

1. North - Jason Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood (BID) - Nick Daicos
3. Western Bulldogs (BID) - Sam Darcy
4. GWS - Josh Gibcus
5. Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan
6. Adelaide - Neil Erasmus
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Jye Amiss
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
11. St Kilda - Josh Rachele
12. West Coast - Matt Johnson
13. Essendon -Arlo Draper
14. Port -Josh Sinn
15. GWS -Mac Andrew (this is a bit of a shock but I don’t think he suits most of the other clubs above. Either they don’t need him, need their draftees to make a quicker impact, or can’t afford to take the risk with a rare high pick)
16. Brisbane - Jacob van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Sam Butler
18. Sydney - Tyler Sonsie
19. Melbourne - Marcus Windhager
20. Brisbane - Josh Goater

I agree on Mac.
If the giants go Callaghan, the Suns may pick Andrews (or Gibcus), if not, I reckon he will be there at 15.
If the Suns do go Mac, there is a decent chance that Gibcus is there at 15. A few more teams will consider him.

 

[bird_man]

I doubt Brisbane look at Butler. More likely Brown or Wilmot, or Owens. Or we trade back in to the early second round.

Why do you doubt you'd look at Butler?.

Looks a very good prospect and also a Vic Country kid which Brisbane have targeted over the last few years.

 

[briztoon]

Why do you doubt you'd look at Butler?.

Looks a very good prospect and also a Vic Country kid which Brisbane have targeted over the last few years.

Based on our perceived positions of need.

Small forward and half forward are probably the two deepest positions on our list.

KPD & KPF are probably our shallowest positions. Outside of our best 22, we have one genuine KPD and one KPF in our reserves.

But it’s not a great year to try and draft a KPF.

 

[bird_man]

Based on our perceived positions of need.

Small forward and half forward are probably the two deepest positions on our list.

KPD & KPF are probably our shallowest positions. Outside of our best 22, we have one genuine KPD and one KPF in our reserves.

But it’s not a great year to try and draft a KPF.

None of the guys you mentioned are key position players though.

Butler was a genuine midfielder as the season went on. I think he could play as an inside mid, outside mid or forward which is why clubs will see him as a very good prospect.

 

[briztoon]

None of the guys you mentioned are key position players though.

Butler was a genuine midfielder as the season went on. I think he could play as an inside mid, outside mid or forward which is why clubs will see him as a very good prospect.

I know. It’s a shallow year for KPP’s, and there’s none I regard where our first two picks are situated.

Outside mid, tall balanced mid, HBF are other positions of need.

 

[Swiggy]

1. JHF - north
2. Darcy -dogs
3. Daicos - pies
4. Andrew - GWS
5. Gibcus - Suns
6. Callahan- Crows
7. Erasmus- hawks
8. NWM- freo
9. Hobbs - Richmond
10. Amiss - freo
11. rachele - saints
12. Ward - WCE
13. Johnson- Essendon
14. Draper - port
15. Alleer - GWS
16. Sinn - Brisbane
17. Goater - Richmond
18. Wilmont - swans
19. Sonsie - Melbourne
20. Bazzo - Brisbane

Didn’t do any trades in the end… with Callahan & Erasmus gone I think freo will reach for NWM

 

[bird_man]

1. JHF - north
2. Darcy -dogs
3. Daicos - pies
4. Andrew - GWS
5. Gibcus - Suns
6. Callahan- Crows
7. Erasmus- hawks
8. NWM- freo
9. Hobbs - Richmond
10. Amiss - freo
11. rachele - saints
12. Ward - WCE
13. Johnson- Essendon
14. Draper - port
15. Alleer - GWS
16. Sinn - Brisbane
17. Goater - Richmond
18. Wilmont - swans
19. Sonsie - Melbourne
20. Bazzo - Brisbane

Didn’t do any trades in the end… with Callahan & Erasmus gone I think freo will reach for NWM

There is no way the Saints would let Ward slip past our pick to take a other small forward IMO.

 

[Swiggy]

There is no way the Saints would let Ward slip past our pick to take a other small forward IMO.

i thought ward is very similar to what saints already have. rachele isn’t like any of the saints smalls.

 

[bird_man]

i thought ward is very similar to what saints already have. rachele isn’t like any of the saints smalls.

Not really.

Most of our mids are bigger types or not really known for their endurance.

He'd also add a bit of class to the midfield which is something we lack.

Can't see him making it that far any way, but if we passed on him there'd likely be a riot.

 

[Joose]

Here is my crack. Assuming no trades. Just too complicated.

1. North - Jason Horne-Francis (obvious)
2. Collingwood (BID) - Nick Daicos
3. Western Bulldogs (BID) - Sam Darcy
4. GWS - Mac Andrew ( lot of noise about GWS interest in Andrew)
5. Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus (GCS have lots of young mids - needs based selection)
6. Adelaide - Finn Callaghan ( Crows get lucky here - 3rd best Mid in draft)
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward ( best available)
8. Fremantle - Jye Amiss ( Freo punt on 2nd best KPF in draft )
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs ( best available mid )
10. Fremantle - Neil Erasmus ( bit of a slider )
11. St Kilda - Josh Rachele ( best available )
12. West Coast - Matt Johnson ( obvious choice for Eagles to boost midfield)
13. Essendon -Arlo Draper ( best available)
14. Port - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ( Port would not be able to type out their selection quick enough )
15. GWS - Josh Sinn ( best available)
16. Brisbane - Jacob van Rooyen ( best available)
17. Richmond - Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

( best available)
18. Sydney - Tyler Sonsie ( best available)
19. Melbourne - Mitch Knevitt ( best available)
20. Brisbane - Tom Brown ( best available)
21. Fremantle - Jesse Motlop (Freo may well pull the pin here if they think he is worth it. Will not last past Pick 40. In reality this pick will be split)

 

[Premiers17]

All I want for Xmas which I want are my 5 draftees but I'll put my hopefuls Hobbs ,Ward Chesser Goater Buzzo

 

[eth-dog]

All I want for Xmas which I want are my 5 draftees but I'll put my hopefuls Hobbs ,Ward Chesser Goater Buzzo

I'd be shocked if any of Hobbs, Ward or Goater lasted to your second pick, and Chesser or Bazzo to your third.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Slider: Blake Howes.
No particular position on the ground. Jarrod Branders unsuccessful career at the Eagles may see clubs turn away from similar type players. Could be a great get in the 40's or 50's.

Riser: Zac Taylor
Wouldn't be surprised to see him go inside the top 15.

 

[Asb1735]

(1) North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
(2) Collingwood - Nick Daicos
(3) Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy
(4) GWS - Finn Callaghan
(5) Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus
(6) Adelaide - Josh Rachele
(7) Hawthorn - Josh Ward
(8) Fremantle - Jye Amiss
(9) Richmond - Ben Hobbs
(10) Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
(11) St Kilda - Mac Andrew
(12) West Coast - Matt Johnson
(13) Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
(14) Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
(15) GWS - Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(16) Brisbane - Josh Sinn
(17) Richmond - Josh Goater
(18) Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
(19) Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
(20) Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie
(21) Fremantle - Jesse Motlop
(22) North Melbourne - Darcy Wilmot
(23) Hawthorn - Zac Taylor
(24) St Kilda - Mitch Owens
(25) Geelong - Jacob Van Rooyen
(26) GWS - Josh Fahey
(27) Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
(28) Carlton - Tom Brown
(29) Richmond - Matthew Roberts
(30) St Kilda - Marcus Windhager
(31) Richmond - Rhett Bazzo
(32) Richmond - Blake Howes
(33) West Coast - Conner MacDonald
(34) Geelong - Toby Conway
(35) Sydney - Leek Alleer
(36) Geelong - Angus Sheldrick
(37) Adelaide - Cooper Murley
(38) Geelong - Sam Banks
(39) West Coast - Jack Williams
(40) Melbourne - Kai Lohman